Thursday, October 07, 2010

Well, that’s confusing (temperatures up no matter which way you look at it)

There are reports of a new study out in Nature of satellite data of the Sun’s recent behaviour, indicating that despite being in a “quiet”period, it still probably warmed the Earth. 

Here’s the short version in New Scientist, and the longer version in Nature News.  From the latter:

Contrary to expectations, the net amount of solar energy reaching Earth's troposphere — the lowest part of the atmosphere — seems to have been larger in 2007 than in 2004, despite the decline in solar activity over that period.

The spectral changes seem to have altered the distribution of ozone molecules above the troposphere. In a model simulation, ozone abundance declined below an altitude of 45 kilometres altitude in the period 2004–07, and increased further up in the atmosphere.

The modelled changes are consistent with space-based measurements of ozone during the same period.

"We're seeing — albeit limited to a very short period — a very interesting change in solar irradiation with remarkably similar changes in ozone," says Haigh. "It might be a coincidence, and it does require verification, but our findings could be too important to not publish them now."

Meanwhile, Roy Spencer’s most recent satellite data shows September was very hot globally, and Roy is puzzled as to why.   (The on set of  la Nina should mean temperatures heading down.)

Gee, at some point he might even have to revise his just published book (arguing that warming will be minimal).  Ha.

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