Agreed
Donald Trump isn’t going to be president.: Donald Trump begins the general election with a huge deficit in head-to-head polls, deep unpopularity, and major demographic headwinds. Unless he wins unprecedented shares of black and Latino voters, or, barring any improvement with nonwhite voters, unless he wins unprecedented shares of white voters, he loses. And he has to do this while running as the most unpopular nominee in 30 years of polling. He has to do it while running against a Democratic Party operating at full strength, with popular surrogates (including a former president) crisscrossing the country against his campaign. He has to do it with a divided Republican Party. He has to do it while somehow tempering his deep-seated misogyny and racism. All this, again, in a growing economy with a well-liked president—solid conditions for a Democratic candidate.
Donald Trump has to become a radically different person to win.
Donald Trump isn’t going to win.
11 comments:
Anyone making predictions in this cycle had better have some pretty good reasoning behind them. Plenty of bodies of failed pundits on the roadside of this one.
Having said that, the Nate Silver approach of respecting the polls has worked a treat so far (even though it didn't last cycle, or in the recent UK election).
Why u sounding skeptical of this guy's reasoning when it's pretty much the same as you've been saying at Catallaxy?
I am suspicious of anyone making 100% guarantees for an outcome so far away with so many variables. A poorly timed terrorist attack can swing it the other way. Hillary could get too cocky. She could make bad hires like she did in 08. The media could see Trump as their last hope for ratings to save their suck-arse jobs and go all in for insanity. Many possible pitfalls on the way to November.
Basically I'm leaning towards the Steve M (of No More Mister Nice Blog) emotional hedge on this one. I just can't believe it's going to be as good as it looks. Surely we can't be that lucky after the wondrous Obama era to see an actual McGovern-level drubbing.
Having said that, it is going to be hella fun this year. Turnbull actually running to the left of Shorten, Trump pretending to run to the left of Hillary. Wingnut head explosions on a daily basis.
Agree with Paul, especially his first and second comments. But, that said, just for once, I hope the complacent people all continue in their blissful complacency right through to a Clinton presidency.
Who are the "blissfully complacent" who you refer to, Tim? I don't actually understand your point...
Everyone who is saying with complete certitude "Trump isn't going to win"! It's of a piece with every other political prediction, often made on little or no evidence - or, indeed, commentary on football or other sports.
Hmm, I thought your comment might make more sense if you said "a Trump presidency", not "a Clinton presidency".
But someone like me, who is advocating complacency, of course wants a Hillary presidency instead of Trump.
And anyway, you're wrong to say that the "Trump can't win" line is based on little or no evidence: as the guy writing at Slate says, there are myriad reasons to believe Trump will not win - he is demographically in a much worse position than Romney, and a large slab of even white Republicans are doubting they can vote for him.
Hence my qualifier 'often'.
Got me on a technicality. :)
I should have said "You're wrong to give me the impression, formed by ignoring your qualifier, that you think there is little or no evidence that Trump can't win."
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