Thursday, April 06, 2017

Taleb and the "don't believe everything you read about Syria" line

I see via Jason Soon that Nassim Taleb is taking the "idiot journalists may well be being conned by anti-Assad propaganda" line regarding the apparent gas attack. 

Taleb, who strikes me as one of the strangest and unpredictable blowhards around, should be due for a turnaround of his own shrug-of-the-shoulders attitude to the Trump Presidency, then.  Here he was before the election:
Not only is a Donald Trump presidency very possible, it's also not all that much to worry about, scholar and author Nassim Taleb told CNBC's "Power Lunch."

Taleb said Trump is not as "scary" as people make him out to be.

"In the end, Trump is a real estate salesman," Taleb said. "When you elect real estate salespeople to the presidency, they're going to try deliver something."

Because of that, Trump probably won't do anything apocalyptic, Taleb said.
Um, people with common sense (something which Taleb seems to spend a lot of time complaining that other academics don't have) would have suspected long before Taleb may realise it that Trump's many years of idiotic promotion of conspiracy always meant that he was going to be an extremely gullible President when it comes to propaganda (and I say that without conceding anything about the Syrian gas attack.) 

How could Taleb not recognize that?


not trampis said...

Taleb in essence is very stupid. Trump was entirely predictable. That he got it sooo wrong and cannot even admit as yet says volumes about him.

Steve said...

Welcome back homer. Without your regular appearances, it feels like I am completely unread. (Rather than just "barely read")

not trampis said...

Thanks Bathurst was a hoot as I have written!

No internet though.

Anonymous said...

So your blog ignores Taleb's arguments completely and just states that common sense supports your counter position? No analysis, no justification? Charlie Munger said that in order to refute someone you should be able to argue their case better than they can. There is more to Taleb's argument when you unpack it - he's a blowhard because he knows too well that human bias ensures that most people can't be bothered to do see things from another perspective. Irrespective of whether you agree or disagree you should give more credit to the other side of the debate.

not trampis said...

Trump is a property developer not a real estate saleman. Say no more!

Steve said...

Anonymous, I've looked up a bit more on Taleb's Trump commentary on twitter and elsewhere since your comment. He may be a smart guy in some areas; in this matter - judging the relevance of character and past behaviour of a candidate for the Presidency - his judgement is way off kilter.

My key point remains - if Taleb is so concerned about Presidents being easily manipulated by PR coming out of parts of the Middle East, he had no grounds at all (other than wishful thinking with no evidence to back it up) that Trump would have better judgement in that area than Clinton, or virtually any other candidate.

not trampis said...

Trump was a believers in conspiracy myths. Nuff said. Taleb is an lazy prat who clearly did no homework at all.