Friday, May 25, 2018

Back to the count

I see via Hot Air, of all places, that Gallop has published polling indicating that the number of Americans identifying as falling within the LGBT category has gone up six years in a row.

Funnily enough, back in 2013 I looked at some studies and made my own guess that for men, the percent who would would say they were gay or bisexual was probably 4 to 5%.   And what do you know - the Gallop poll shows that 4.5% of all Americans are now claiming to be LGBT.   But, there are fewer men than women in that figure:
Overall, 5.1% of women in 2017 identified as LGBT, compared with 3.9% of men. The change among men over time has been minimal, with the LGBT percentage edging up from 3.4% in 2012 to 3.7% both last year and this year. On the other hand, the percentage of women identifying as LGBT has risen from 3.5% in 2012 to 5.1% today, with the largest jump occurring between 2016 and 2017. 
Still, my spitball estimate seems pretty close.

Anyway, the biggest feature of these figures is the very big growth in young people identifying this way.   Look at the table:

You would have to strongly suspect that the increase in millenials identifying as such says more about their susceptibility to experimentation and social fashion than a settled view of their own sexuality.   (I mean, if it was a case of social mores meaning more people are happy to come out, you would expect some growth in the numbers of older folk identifying, but it's just not there.)  

It certainly indicates that the Catholic Church is just going to continue to be bypassed in influence in the matter of its teaching on sexuality.


not trampis said...

it is about 2% or less here. I would like to see definitions plus other polls

Steve said...

Homer, the 2015 census came up with 3% for "gay lesbian or other" - see the report here:

A Roy Morgan survey report from mid 2015 said its most recent survey had a 3.4% agree to the simple statement "I am homosexual".

I suspect that people might be more reluctant to disclose sexuality on the census than on a private survey, so I would think the Roy Morgan slightly higher figure would be accurate. And it didn't include "bisexual or other".

Add those in, and I think it very likely that for total LGBT figures in Australia may be 4.5%, as per the American Gallup result.

Steve said...

A link for the Roy Morgan story:

not trampis said...

we did not have other previously so I think I am correct in saying the previous 2% or lower is still correct.

Steve said...

It doesn't gel with Roy Morgan's result of 3.4% making the simple statement that they consider themselves homosexual. They asked 180,000 Australians aged 14 and up. Maybe you can shave a .1 or .2% due to the youthful age at which people were asked (as Gallup showed, young people today are kinda keen to declare a different sexuality), but I still say the Morgan result points strongly to over 3% of adults considering themselves just gay. Add in some "others" - primarily bisexual - and you get to 4%, I reckon.