Israel Is Already Selling Kamikaze Micro-Drones That Will Change Modern Warfare
I must go looking for a video of them in action. Will add later if I find one...
Update: here it is, the advertising blurb for this very futuristic weapon:
Update: sorry, the video seems to have gone private since posting it here. Maybe the company (or Israel) doesn't like the world to see how it operates?
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
And (some) people defend Lomborg
Indefensible Lomborg Analysis Misleads On Paris Climate Pledges, Ignores China | ThinkProgress
Pretty damning critique of Lomborgian analysis which was (as I guessed as soon as I saw Andrew Bolt promote it) simply designed to convince the gullible that the Paris conference is useless.
Pretty damning critique of Lomborgian analysis which was (as I guessed as soon as I saw Andrew Bolt promote it) simply designed to convince the gullible that the Paris conference is useless.
Fun physics
There's an essay on arXiv (Living in a Superposition) that is about a fun thought experiment. Here's the abstract:
This essay considers a model quantum universe consisting of a very large box containing a screen with two slits and an observer (us) that can pass though the slits. We apply the modern quantum mechanics of closed systems to calculate the probabilities for alternative histories of how we move through the universe and what we see. After passing through the screen with the slits, the quantum state of the universe is a superposition of classically distinguishable histories. We are then living in a superposition. Some frequently asked questions about such situations are answered using this model. The model's relationship to more realistic quantum cosmologies is briefly discussed.
Good question
What happened to passenger hovercraft? - BBC News
I did take the hovercraft service across the English channel in about 1986. The article explains why they never caught on as widely as 1960's futurists may have expected.
I did take the hovercraft service across the English channel in about 1986. The article explains why they never caught on as widely as 1960's futurists may have expected.
The columnist with the common touch
I wonder what inspired Bolt to start telling us how well he has traveled? I would have thought his occasional opera and art appreciation posts were distancing enough for most of his readership, but expanding it to "let's talk about the great places I have stayed" seems to be pushing it somewhat.
The next degree won't take as long
Here's a good, short post from And Then There's Physics explaining how the next degree of global average temperature increase won't take as long as the first:
[But, hey LDP, please continue to concentrate on how irritating it is to have to wear a bicycle helmet and not be able to vape nicotine while riding to the bar that's going to shut at the ridiculously early hour of 3 am. We have to get our priorities right: I understand.]
Just a quick post to highlight that – according to the UK Met Office – 2015 is likely to be 1oC above pre-industrial – well, 1oC above the 1850 to 1900 average. If you think that we should have a target of staying below 2oC, then this is something of a milestone; we’re halfway there. Or, are we?The comments following are well worth reading, too.
Well, it depends on how you consider this. It’s taken us about 160 years to warm by about 1oC. This is associated with emissions of about 550GtC (550 billion tonnes of carbon, or ~2000 billion tonnes of CO2). Current emissions are around 10GtC/year. If we continue emitting as we are, we will double our cumulative emissions in about 50 years. If we continue to increase our emissions, it will be even sooner (H/T Aaron on Twitter). If we want to have a >66% chance of staying below 2oC, then we have a carbon budget of only about 250GtC (850GtCO2) from 2015, which we could reach in only 25 years at current emissions.
So, we might be halfway to 2oC in terms of temperature, but we’re much more than halfway there in terms of time.
[But, hey LDP, please continue to concentrate on how irritating it is to have to wear a bicycle helmet and not be able to vape nicotine while riding to the bar that's going to shut at the ridiculously early hour of 3 am. We have to get our priorities right: I understand.]
Monday, November 09, 2015
The 2011 Australian floods revisited
The abstract from a paper to appear in GRL:
Extreme rainfall conditions in Australia during the 2010/11 La Niña resulted in devastating floods claiming 35 lives, causing billions of dollars in damages, and far-reaching impacts on global climate, including a significant drop in global sea-level and record terrestrial carbon uptake. Northeast Australian 2010/11 rainfall was 84% above-average, unusual even for a strong La Niña, and soil moisture conditions were unprecedented since 1950. Here we demonstrate that the warmer background state increased the likelihood of the extreme rainfall response. Using atmospheric general circulation model experiments with 2010/11 ocean conditions with and without long-term warming, we identify the mechanisms that increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall: additional ocean warming enhanced onshore moisture transport onto Australia and ascent and precipitation over the northeast. Our results highlight the role of long-term ocean warming for modifying rain-producing atmospheric circulation conditions, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation for Australia during future La Niña events.
Tax or not?
I see that David Leyonhjelm is again writing in praise of the Singaporean health system, which operates largely by requiring compulsory employee contributions to medical savings accounts. (I see he was making the same argument back in 2014, and it is also LDP official policy.)
Now this seems a bit odd to me - when it comes to arguing about whether we are a high or low taxing country, Leyonhjelm is happy to claim "the tax burden figure for Australia is artificially kept down by the exclusion of superannuation guarantee payments", which is extremely close to the Judith Sloan line that "we have a system of compulsory superannuation that must be regarded as a tax". (Yes, the very special type of "tax" that goes into the taxpayer's own account, is largely untouched by the government, and is available for spending only by the taxpayer or their estate.)
Let's be a bit more consistent here, hey libertarians? If you are for compulsory savings for medical care, but like to claim compulsory superannuation should be treated as part of the "tax burden", then you're actually for a brand new tax, using your own peculiar (or opportunistic) categorisations. On the other hand, if neither are a tax, stop pretending one of them is.
And as for comparing the health costs of the Singaporean system to that in Australia or other countries - goodness gracious me, I would bet there would health economists out there ecstatic at the idea of what they could do to stream line health services if they were doing it for one city state compared to providing coverage for an entire continent.
Update: OK, so I guess Leyonhjelm might concede such a scheme is the same type of "tax" that compulsory superannuation is, but one which would be compensated for by the government (now with a reduced health spending burden) reducing income taxes. Because he is, of course, fundamentally against ever increasing total taxes. (Good luck with working out that transition with any fairness, though. Let's face it, it ain't going to happen.)
Nonetheless, isn't it peculiar that the party that is all about personal responsibility and letting people act as grown ups actually agrees with Labor, which effectively says you can't rely on people to save for their retirement adequately and therefore compulsory super is required?
Now this seems a bit odd to me - when it comes to arguing about whether we are a high or low taxing country, Leyonhjelm is happy to claim "the tax burden figure for Australia is artificially kept down by the exclusion of superannuation guarantee payments", which is extremely close to the Judith Sloan line that "we have a system of compulsory superannuation that must be regarded as a tax". (Yes, the very special type of "tax" that goes into the taxpayer's own account, is largely untouched by the government, and is available for spending only by the taxpayer or their estate.)
Let's be a bit more consistent here, hey libertarians? If you are for compulsory savings for medical care, but like to claim compulsory superannuation should be treated as part of the "tax burden", then you're actually for a brand new tax, using your own peculiar (or opportunistic) categorisations. On the other hand, if neither are a tax, stop pretending one of them is.
And as for comparing the health costs of the Singaporean system to that in Australia or other countries - goodness gracious me, I would bet there would health economists out there ecstatic at the idea of what they could do to stream line health services if they were doing it for one city state compared to providing coverage for an entire continent.
Update: OK, so I guess Leyonhjelm might concede such a scheme is the same type of "tax" that compulsory superannuation is, but one which would be compensated for by the government (now with a reduced health spending burden) reducing income taxes. Because he is, of course, fundamentally against ever increasing total taxes. (Good luck with working out that transition with any fairness, though. Let's face it, it ain't going to happen.)
Nonetheless, isn't it peculiar that the party that is all about personal responsibility and letting people act as grown ups actually agrees with Labor, which effectively says you can't rely on people to save for their retirement adequately and therefore compulsory super is required?
About time I commented on this
Yes, I keep forgetting to post about the peculiar phenomena of the adult colouring in book. The Atlantic has a story up from a recent convert, and there was an article about it in the Sydney Morning Herald back in April, and another a few weeks ago asking the question:
Adult colouring books are all the rage, but are readers mindful or mindless?Nearly all articles err on the generous side, and so would I, given their popularity.
The key to it (as the article from The Atlantic argues) is the involvement in a pattern: it's a chair bound way to meditatively walk a maze, and that has a certain appeal to people like me with an aversion to sweating.
But in order to cross the boundary between mindful pattern building and more analytical thought, I think I'll work on creating my own version with patterns involving certain politicians heads, or media commentators. Watch this space...
Update: it's a rough first attempt, but I call it "The Leyonhjelm Mandala":
Sunday, November 08, 2015
For satellite watchers
Google Play suggested it for me, and it would seem that, indeed, the Heavens-Above app on a GPS enabled smart phone or tablet makes spotting and identifying satellites, the ISS, and even Iridium flares, ridiculously simple.
I've never gone out to watch for an Iridium flare, but I will now.
I've never gone out to watch for an Iridium flare, but I will now.
Gravity and spandex
This video has been up for a few years, but was just recommended on the Open Culture site.
Now, we've all seen this type of illustration for General Relativity before on various science shows, but it is worth watching for a couple of phenomena that this teacher helps explain with his stretchy set up. Give it a few minutes and you will see:
I should also note that this month marks the 100th anniversary of Einstein's lectures on his theory. The New York Times gives a handy short history of how the theory subsequently progressed under the weight of 20th century politics.
Now, we've all seen this type of illustration for General Relativity before on various science shows, but it is worth watching for a couple of phenomena that this teacher helps explain with his stretchy set up. Give it a few minutes and you will see:
I should also note that this month marks the 100th anniversary of Einstein's lectures on his theory. The New York Times gives a handy short history of how the theory subsequently progressed under the weight of 20th century politics.
About Kiribati
Before we drown we may die of thirst
I see that a couple of weeks back, Nature had a balanced article about climate change and its effects on the small Pacific Island nations.
Long time readers may recall that I have always backed away* from relying on the celebrity victim status (as it were) of these islands for communicating the seriousness of climate change, because it seemed to me that their continued existence, being barely above sea level anyway, was always in doubt.
I think, on the whole, this article vindicates that position. The islands have several problems and indeed climate change will exacerbate them, but in the big picture, the seriousness of a metre or two of sea level increase on the vastly populated and developed regions of other countries is really the much more profound problem. (As well as the regional effects on food production, handling more frequent flooding, and the possible vast changes in the ocean food chain.)
* Yes, that linked post was written back in 2006 when I was taking a "sitting on the fence" approach to climate change, before I became convinced that it (and ocean acidification) were indeed serious issues.
I see that a couple of weeks back, Nature had a balanced article about climate change and its effects on the small Pacific Island nations.
Long time readers may recall that I have always backed away* from relying on the celebrity victim status (as it were) of these islands for communicating the seriousness of climate change, because it seemed to me that their continued existence, being barely above sea level anyway, was always in doubt.
I think, on the whole, this article vindicates that position. The islands have several problems and indeed climate change will exacerbate them, but in the big picture, the seriousness of a metre or two of sea level increase on the vastly populated and developed regions of other countries is really the much more profound problem. (As well as the regional effects on food production, handling more frequent flooding, and the possible vast changes in the ocean food chain.)
* Yes, that linked post was written back in 2006 when I was taking a "sitting on the fence" approach to climate change, before I became convinced that it (and ocean acidification) were indeed serious issues.
Saturday, November 07, 2015
The paywall issue
I've never put a lot of effort into avoiding paywalls and page view limits: I use "Google the headline" sometimes, but page view limits I've generally lived with. Media organisations have to make money, after all.*
So given that there are some publications with page view limits I'm prepared to try to get around, and deleting history gets a bit tedious, I realised this week when I stumbled across something about the Tor network that this might be an easier way around the limit.
Turns out for those using android that there is simple Tor accessing app (Orbot) and an associated browser (Orweb.) The browser is pretty terrible, though; but I have found a Tor version of Firefox too (Orfox), and it is much better.
Of course it won't work as fast as normal browsing, given the way Tor works. But as far as I can tell, although you would not be wanting to trust this system on your phone or tablet to divulge state secrets, it seems to let you keep browsing past page view limits as long as you want.
* unless it's owned by Rupert Murdoch - but then again, I don't want to spend a lot of time wallowing in his right wing clubs anyway. For those with fewer scruples, here's a fairly recent guide to getting around some paywall schemes, and here's another - even though I don't think incognito mode works well now.
So given that there are some publications with page view limits I'm prepared to try to get around, and deleting history gets a bit tedious, I realised this week when I stumbled across something about the Tor network that this might be an easier way around the limit.
Turns out for those using android that there is simple Tor accessing app (Orbot) and an associated browser (Orweb.) The browser is pretty terrible, though; but I have found a Tor version of Firefox too (Orfox), and it is much better.
Of course it won't work as fast as normal browsing, given the way Tor works. But as far as I can tell, although you would not be wanting to trust this system on your phone or tablet to divulge state secrets, it seems to let you keep browsing past page view limits as long as you want.
* unless it's owned by Rupert Murdoch - but then again, I don't want to spend a lot of time wallowing in his right wing clubs anyway. For those with fewer scruples, here's a fairly recent guide to getting around some paywall schemes, and here's another - even though I don't think incognito mode works well now.
Friday, November 06, 2015
Such is the worrying state of America
Egypt's pyramids for grain storage, not pharoahs' tombs, Ben Carson said in 1998 remarks - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
The Atlantic notes that this idea is an old medieval one. I find it remarkable that it could still be held by creationists today, since it suggests their ability to dismiss evidence extends to even being able to ignore the interior design of a building in front of their eyes. What hope is there for convincing them they are wrong on the age of the universe, evolution, or climate change?
The Atlantic notes that this idea is an old medieval one. I find it remarkable that it could still be held by creationists today, since it suggests their ability to dismiss evidence extends to even being able to ignore the interior design of a building in front of their eyes. What hope is there for convincing them they are wrong on the age of the universe, evolution, or climate change?
Please make him stop
The only good thing about Slate going behind a 5 article a month paywall (just clear your history and start again) is that it might stop you from reading another extremely silly bit of writing from the world's most irritating gay writer J. Bryan Lowder. This one about how much he hates spooning.
Or perhaps you should read it (or, like me, just scan it and decide how embarrassingly bad it is within a couple of paragraphs) and then skip to the amusingly derisive comments. Such as these (each is a separate comment):
Or perhaps you should read it (or, like me, just scan it and decide how embarrassingly bad it is within a couple of paragraphs) and then skip to the amusingly derisive comments. Such as these (each is a separate comment):
This article is seriously making me reconsider being a Slate+ member. Yes, it is literally that bad of an article...
I can't tell whether this is satire or not.
I can imagine the Slate editorial meeting this morning. "Lowder! An editorial piece on my desk in fifteen minutes or else! I don't care what you write about as long as I see a text file in my inbox fifteen minutes from now, got it?"
Not every idea one has needs to be shared, though I understand that idea is alien to millennials. And calling something like spooning "sexist" is why people stop taking accusations of sexism seriously.
Well, that was, um... ah...
Seriously? This was green-lighted?
I finally realized what's going on: Lowder hates Slate and everything it stands for and is trying to destroy it from the inside out. He is SPOONING SLATE! BRILLIANT!
Waves discussed
My son last night had a science question on his homework that asked how a change in frequency affects the speed of a wave. I could remember the answer, but not a good way to explain it. I thought there must be a decent Youtube video out there showing what happens, but on stuff like this, it can be surprisingly hard to find a good video for a high school level.
The best I could come up with, and it is pretty good, is from the Khan Academy talking about the speed of sound. (It's the second in a series, but I don't think its essential to watch the first. It also has more detail than necessary, but in the last 60 seconds, they deal with the frequency/speed issue pretty well.)
So, for all other parents with a similar problem, here it is:
Speed of Sound:
The best I could come up with, and it is pretty good, is from the Khan Academy talking about the speed of sound. (It's the second in a series, but I don't think its essential to watch the first. It also has more detail than necessary, but in the last 60 seconds, they deal with the frequency/speed issue pretty well.)
So, for all other parents with a similar problem, here it is:
Speed of Sound:
Thursday, November 05, 2015
Strange polling
Andrew Bolt is celebrating apparent skepticism showing up in the CSIRO polling story that I noted yesterday, yet if one reads more widely on the topic (he never does), there is reason to be somewhat skeptical of the CSIRO results.
This chart from ongoing polling (with a 1,000 person sample - which sounds reasonable) from the Lowy Institute, for example, indicates attitudes that hardly seem consistent with the CSIRO poll.
Odd that about 88% on this poll think there is a problem to be addressed in some form if (according to Bolt's reading of CSIRO) more than half of Australians aren't even sure there is a problem.
On the other hand, Essential polling from 2013 indicates that the CSIRO result may not be too far off the mark, but the "climate change is real and is caused by humans" has a clearer lead.
It's all a bit confusing.
I see that the CSIRO itself has studied the question of how the phrasing of questions on this topic affects outcomes.
It is one of the trickier areas for polling.
This chart from ongoing polling (with a 1,000 person sample - which sounds reasonable) from the Lowy Institute, for example, indicates attitudes that hardly seem consistent with the CSIRO poll.
Odd that about 88% on this poll think there is a problem to be addressed in some form if (according to Bolt's reading of CSIRO) more than half of Australians aren't even sure there is a problem.
On the other hand, Essential polling from 2013 indicates that the CSIRO result may not be too far off the mark, but the "climate change is real and is caused by humans" has a clearer lead.It's all a bit confusing.
I see that the CSIRO itself has studied the question of how the phrasing of questions on this topic affects outcomes.
It is one of the trickier areas for polling.
Private school problem
Brisbane readers in particular are likely noting with amazement the evidence to the Royal Commission into child abuse regarding what went on at Brisbane Grammar School in the 70's and 80's, including the former deputy headmaster denying he ever had any knowledge of anything amiss. (Not only are former students saying this is wrong, but so are parents - a fact which seems to have been under-reported on the television summaries of the commission I have noticed. UPDATE:sorry, I've confused evidence against the late headmaster with that against this deputy - but against him there was still evidence that he had questioned a student about his inappropriate relationship with Lynch.)
It seems the evidence of some ex-students is that, amongst the boys, knowledge of what the school's counsellor was doing in his locked door (hello, common sense warning sign) sessions with boys was pretty widespread. But, somewhat oddly, there have been snippets on the radio of some ex students saying that (at the time) they appreciated his "caring" interest in them. (I assume the fact that they are at the enquiry means they later appreciated that it was an incredible abuse of trust and authority.)
As with what went on at Knox Grammar in Sydney, it seems to me somewhat ironic that this sort of thing went on at a school where parents were paying extraordinary sums for the best of care and education for their kids. Given that I was at a (rather working class area) state high school in the 1970's, it's extremely difficult to imagine that the same sort of thing could have happened there - for one thing, the State system never had any money for intensive on site counselling, and for another, it's kind of hard imagining the kind of guys going to a mixed gender State school thinking that what Lynch was doing was above board. It seems to me that going to a top private school probably gave some of these boys a more ready acceptance of authority and belief that everyone there was really acting in their best interests.
I was sure I had made similar comments about abuse allegations at Knox, but can't find that post now. In any event, it sort of goes to show an upside to State schools not being able to afford to pay staff to have too much time with students...
Update: found my Knox post from earlier this year - only by scrolling through my blog. Proof again that for some mysterious reason, Google is really bad at searching for keywords through its own hosted blogs. (I had tried advanced search, and all...)
Update 2: just noticed at the lunchtime news: more terrible evidence at the royal commission, with the former deputy headmaster giving exactly the wrong response to an invitation to apologise to the former students. Also, another student gave evidence that a teacher who is still at the school utterly rejected his approach for help when he was dazed and confused about getting abused by the counsellor for help with bullying and homesickness. What spectacularly poor PR for the school.
Wednesday, November 04, 2015
Sardines noted, again
As I wrote earlier this year, after a long break, I've started eating canned sardines again. (Dieter's tip: a whole can is surprisingly modest in calories, too. A can on a couple of those corn or rice disk things can come in at about 200 calories - or one meal if you are doing the 5/2 diet and spread your 600 calories evenly over 3 meals.)
But I am upset with Aldi. After languishing in the cupboard for many months, last week I found a can of "sardine sprats" from Germany via Aldi, and they were smoked and extremely delicious. (Unlike your more routine sardines in oil, or tomato sauce. Actually today I had a can from Portugal in a chilli sauce which was quite nice. I generally don't care for the tomato sauce versions, though.)
But, as with their smoked mussels from Germany, Aldi no longer stocks these sprats. In fact, there are no German produced canned seafood there at all. The nearest I found was something from Poland. (Herring, I think.) But most of their stuff is now either Thailand or from the extremely dubious food processing standards of China. (I refuse to buy such Chinese products.)
I don't know where I could find smoked sprats like the German ones again. Perhaps I need to visit a few more Mediterranean delis around South Brisbane/West End. Perhaps a reader from Melbourne might locate some, and could arrange a parcel to Brisbane?
Update: hey, someone has already written "The Sardine Diet". Dang.
But I am upset with Aldi. After languishing in the cupboard for many months, last week I found a can of "sardine sprats" from Germany via Aldi, and they were smoked and extremely delicious. (Unlike your more routine sardines in oil, or tomato sauce. Actually today I had a can from Portugal in a chilli sauce which was quite nice. I generally don't care for the tomato sauce versions, though.)
But, as with their smoked mussels from Germany, Aldi no longer stocks these sprats. In fact, there are no German produced canned seafood there at all. The nearest I found was something from Poland. (Herring, I think.) But most of their stuff is now either Thailand or from the extremely dubious food processing standards of China. (I refuse to buy such Chinese products.)
I don't know where I could find smoked sprats like the German ones again. Perhaps I need to visit a few more Mediterranean delis around South Brisbane/West End. Perhaps a reader from Melbourne might locate some, and could arrange a parcel to Brisbane?
Update: hey, someone has already written "The Sardine Diet". Dang.
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