The Economist's summary of a few days back about what's going on and how things are likely to pan out gives some guarded grounds for optimism. But one point that is surprising is this:
Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest.The magazine thinks China has enough reserves to be able to spend its way to maintaining 8% growth. Just lucky then.
(Of course, what could really throw another level of complexity in the equation would be an Israeli attack on Iran. I think we can safely assume that the economy alone is reason the US would be already telling Israel not to think about it at the moment.)
UPDATE: Paul Krugman remains pessimistic.
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