There's a lengthy, cautious and sensible sounding article over at Nature News about the giant experiment in public health that cannabis legalisation is going to represent.
There are so many complicating factors when trying to judge what may happen (or even in working out which other countries' present experience make for a good comparison) that prediction seems little more than guesswork.
Still, I lean towards the "it'll all end in tears" side, as you may expect.
Update: as I have noted before, it's actually pretty astoundingly weird how drug problems differ from country to country. Russia has virtually always been off its face on alcohol; China has had its opium and now meth and heroin problems on quite a vast scale; I'm not sure for how long Japan has been drinking heavily, yet they barely touch anything else (apart from tobacco); apparently some small Pacific Islands are actually way at the top of the table of heavy marijuana users (beating the Caribbean, surprisingly); Sweden, while famously relaxed about sex, is an outstanding drug free country, although their controlled use of alcohol is no doubt partly due to a system (a State monopoly on the sale of any above 3.5%) which would horrify a libertarian; and who would have thought 20 years ago that ice would become a chronic problem in rural Australia, more so than in the inner cities, it seems? (As it happens, I was today talking to someone from Western Queensland whose family had been devastated by it.)
My point being - given the curious lack of any clear pattern about which country develops overuse problems with which drugs, it wouldn't be surprising if full legalisation of cannabis in one nation did not lead to any great problem, while in another place it sent the country into a sort of stoner lead economic decline.
It may sound like I'm just giving myself an "out" if, in 10 years time, everyone declares cannabis legalisation in the States a great success. But honestly, I think I am making a valid point.
as I have noted before, it's actually pretty astoundingly weird how drug problems differ from country to country.
ReplyDeleteYes, that is rather interesting Steve. It is the same with drug consumption generally, there are no clear reasons for the rise and fall in drug use.
it wouldn't be surprising if full legalisation of cannabis in one nation did not lead to any great problem, while in another place it sent the country into a sort of stoner lead economic decline.
Yes, we cannot know future outcomes. I'm not particularly worried about the legalisation of cannabis because most people don't like the drug and would only use it sparingly. It is addictive though and there is a small subset of people who do become addicted. Note though they also seem to adapt to the persistent usage, holding down work, meeting their responsibilities, and generally managing themselves.
If there will be any success it will be in issues like pain management with a number of studies showing declines in prescription opioid usage where cannabis is legalised. Cannabis is a far better option for pain management than opioids. Much safer, much cheaper. Another possible avenue of success will be the surprising amount of research showing that cannabinoids can have considerable neuro-protective potential and the variant, Charlotte's Web, which has a very high CBD loading, certainly does appear beneficial for some specific types of childhood epilepsy.
As to amphetamines, especially ICE, over 2 years ago I wrote to my State and Federal MPs warning that this issue would blow up in their faces. They did nothing and it blew it up. It was probably going to blow up no matter what we did.
The big problem is that we still don't understand "addiction". There is too much politics involved and too much nonsense about "low self esteem" or "lack of will power" type arguments bandied about which tend to very circular arguments that offer no real insight into what drives addiction.
I don't think the legalisation of cannabis is going to be a success or failure, that does not make sense to me, it is more a matter of being pragmatic, of recognising that legalisation actually decreases access to harder drugs, stops clogging up the courts, and lets people indulge in a habit that brings happiness into their lives. Yes, it is true, no matter what the moralisers say: drugs do make people happy.
Of course the difference between people like you and myself is that I don't have an in principle problem with people using mild altering drugs. Most people are like yourself, they consider it intrinsically bad. I don'get that.