The Return

Well I'm back from Japan, and more posts are coming soon.

A couple of things:

1.  my hunch about the election being much closer than most pundits (or certainly, the betting market) expected turned out pretty right.*

2.  I think I read that Tim Wilson won his seat with an increase in the Liberal vote (even when the predecessor was the high profile Andrew Robb).   For a man already with an ego the size of Tasmania (well, if self promotion is any guide to such things), this is a bad sign.  I half expect that if Turnbull loses the PM job, Timbo will be putting himself up as a replacement candidate immediately.


*   I'll add this to the list of things I have correctly picked over the years - that Rudd would be at risk of being stabbed by his own MPs - well before it happened;  the exact number of college votes by which Obama would win his second election (true - a prediction made at a Catallaxy thread); and that Helen Dale would leave her job with Leyonhjelm within 2 years.