According to the media, quite a few people are saying that they have received multiple same sex survey forms from ABS, because of previous residents who have failed to update their address on the electoral roll. A fairly obvious problem with this ridiculously flawed idea.
Does anyone doubt that the greatest enthusiasm for participation in this exercise is from the "yes" side? Hence I would expect that any potential to exploit flaws is more likely to be come from that side too, and for the results to be skewed "yes" for that reason.
That said, I do expect a properly done survey - like the government could have got Newspoll to do at a tiny fraction of the cost - would also come up with a Yes win - and probably by clear 5 to 10% margin. (That's my guess, anyway.)
But honestly, there is really zero reason to think that this postal survey idea is going to be accurate, and no one will have any idea as to how accurate it is (apart from comparing it to existing polls - making the exercise completely wasteful.)
I agree that the survey has potential for manipulation. I suspect it will mostly be from the No side.
ReplyDeleteI think there are passionate people on both sides of the debate but for most people this argument was over years ago and they are wondering why we are even having the debate. They will vote yes if they care enough but the real zealots are the no voters spouting nonsense about conspiracies to force dresses on boys and all that, who are arguing about everything except the question. I wouldn't out anything past them.
Geoff
Can't agree with you on that one. I just can't see it as an issue that the no campaigners would be inclined to do something actually illegal. (The no campaign is a conservative one, not a reactionary right one. Pauline Hanson, for example, is not playing that prominent a role, and given her gay staffer, I don't think she sees much value to her brand in being more involved.)
ReplyDeleteOn the yes campaign, on the other hand, you have a lot of victimhood claiming, which I think sets up the young and silly as prepared to do anything because (to their mind) it is so obviously an enormous catastrophe to them personally if it doesn't get up. (The "no" campaigners will just vow to take their kids into home schooling - if they are not their already.)