Considering DeSantis

I really don't follow State level American politics all that closely - who has the time, honestly - so it's not like I have watched DeSantis much at all.   But we are being hit with a wave of Right wing admiration for him for being a Right wing culture warrior who wins (latest example - the recently divorcing Rod Dreher) - and I have to say it's strong enough that I am starting to think Trump is not going to survive it. 

So, there are going to be many, many more words spilt on analysis as to why DeSantis did so well.  I have some guesses of my own, but stand to be corrected on any of them:

*  the retirees there are not likely to be concerned about abortion as an issue.  Doesn't affect them.  And Florida is full of older folk, as this map shows:

 

* Some have been saying that DeSantis looked credible during the recent hurricane recovery - and it is true, even I noticed that he did openly thank Biden for the help and co-operation from the Federal level in a way one would find it hard imagining Trump (if in his place) ever doing. (Trump throwing paper towels to victims was one of the worst images to come out of his presidency.)   So yeah, it's easy to understand DeSantis getting a boost from that, and he is capable of playing "normal politician, with normal manners" at times, when appropriate.

* Similarly, lots of folk are saying that his "keep open under Covid" approach went down well in a State full of tourism businesses.   I think age may be a factor in that too - seems to me that the older a Right winger is, the more likely they are to value convenience over risk.   They're probably the first to have rushed back to the cruise lines, for example.   

* Some say that the Democrats are very poorly organised in Florida, but I have no idea why that is the case.

* The Big Question:  how much does the culture warrior, anti-woke, status of the "Don't say Gay" governor factor into his electoral success?   I wonder if concerns about school kids exposure to "gay" material in school is higher amongst the older population than actual school parents?  I would have to look for some survey results on that.   But, here I will be honest and say that, at least on this aspect of the culture wars, I thought that DeSantis was kind of clever, as he could easily claim the law was doing something most parents would accept - that you don't need to go out of your way to "teach" kids about gay or alternative relationships during early school:

The new law, championed by Florida’s GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, bans lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade as well as material that is not deemed age-appropriate. Most educators do not expect a major change in lesson plans — one of the key reasons critics cited in saying the law was unnecessary was that teachers do not cover such subjects in early grades anyway.

But some worry it sets a tone that will leave LGBTQ teachers and kids feeling ostracized.  

Some gay and lesbian teachers (or Disney executives) who would turn up on Tik Tok claiming that took every opportunity to insert "gay" narratives pretty much were asking for pushback, and DeSantis took it up enthusiastically.   And it seems to me arguable that the response was -  shall we say - more moderate than it could have been.  More like right wing virtue signalling, perhaps.

Still, as I said recently, I don't see much in the way of broad charisma - and I see that apparently Ross Douthat would agree:

Now, there are various ways that this analysis might overstate the DeSantis case. There are reasons apart from his political skills that Florida has trended sharply to the right, and his message and persona might not yield the same results elsewhere. You can’t base a 2024 campaign just on being the guy who kept a sunny vacation destination open for business in 2021 (and drew many right-of-center migrants in the process). You can’t assume that the Hispanic vote nationwide will follow the same patterns as in South Florida. You can’t count on DeSantis’s peculiar kind of anti-charisma playing nationally the way it has played in his home state.

And, who knows:  his success may well go to his head and lead to overreach.

But overall, we do have to remember:  Florida is a weird kind of place.  

Update: I forgot about the ridiculous "con illegal immigrants into going to Martha's Vineyard" exercise, which I reckon shows a dangerous inclination to overreach which is going to get him into trouble.  

And a couple of tweets expressing skepticism of his appeal on a national stage: