Monday, May 08, 2023

Bad news country

I don't know - perhaps it's the graphic description given by an eyewitness - but the latest random mass shooting in Texas feels more upsetting than most.  Or perhaps it's because it feels genuinely nauseating to hear Republicans - like the God awful Governor Abbott - recite their mantra that nothing can be done, and pretend that gun laws that restrict gun ownership don't reduce gun violence.   Is this what it's like to be taken over by robot overlords that have no capacity for changing their programming?   Honestly, when half of Florida is underwater in 100 years time, there will still be Republicans saying "but this happened a couple of million years ago, as part of a natural cycle.  Don't tell me carbon dioxide has anything to do with it." 

 I just don't know how politics is meant to cope when people start being too unreasonable to reason with.

In other depressing American news, there's a weird poll described at the Washington Post which claims to find that more people say they would vote for Trump than Biden in the next match up:

When asked who they would support in 2024, 44 percent of voting-age adults say they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for Trump while 38 percent would definitely or probably vote for Biden. The remaining 18 percent are either undecided or gave another answer.

There are two things about it, though:

a.    I'm pretty sure that such hypothetical polling ("if this is the case, then what you do?") is supposed to be notoriously unreliable;  and

b.    How does it make any sense that the same poll can show this?:

The poll finds a 56 percent majority of Americans saying he should face criminal charges in investigations of his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. Similarly, 54 percent support charges against Trump for his role in the events leading up to the storming of the Capitol in January 2021 and, separately, for his handling of classified documents after he left office.

I think Biden approval suffers whenever there is a period where he looks unable to achieve outcomes - currently, with the debt level negotiations, border control issues, and Ukraine looking kinda frozen in conflict.   I get that people would prefer a younger politician to be running.    

But that Trump still polls at the levels he does - again, it's like dealing with brainwashed robots.

Update:   As I was saying, about the unusual degree to which this most recent shooting in Texas seems to be affecting more people as being more intensely tragic than other recent incidents:

 


And on polling:   I see that the Rasmussen poll, which is routinely biased towards Republicans, has shown an approval rating for Biden of 51% (but Trump at 49% too, it must be admitted.)

There is definitely something "off" about the ABC/Wapo poll that puts total Biden approval at 36%.

5 comments:

  1. There are robots on both sides. The Democrats have made a huge mistake supporting Biden to run again. If he is the best they have to offer then the Democrats have failed miserably. He's too old. That the USA is left with the choice of Biden or Trump is terrible news for the world. I'm not surprised more would vote for Trump than Biden. Biden sounds cognitively impaired and his approval ratings are low despite a booming economy. That is a very bad sign. Trump's rhetoric is obviously replete with lies and nonsense but Biden sounds like a old man who should be sitting on the porch drinking lemonade and whittling. This is a very dangerous situation for the USA. I'd rather Biden win than Trump because Biden will be managed by the relevant individuals but Trump will go ballistic with his agenda.

    Cruz has copped a social media hammering when he issued the typical "thoughts and prayers" response. At least that is a hopeful sign the tide might be turning.

    The USA is in a very dangerous place. With luck the gun control issue will become so pronounced that will get Biden over the line.

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  2. "The Democrats have made a huge mistake supporting Biden to run again. If he is the best they have to offer then the Democrats have failed miserably."

    Isn't the problem that, if I understand their system correctly, you have to want the job and then smooch around to try to find out whether you have a hope of raising enough money to campaign to get the job? I mean, it's not like just working the phones in Australia to see if you have the support to challenge for the leadership. It's a terrible system that they are stuck with, with next to no chance of substantial reform, it seems.

    As you would probably guess, I think you are being too harsh on Biden's mental state. Sure, he is not going to be as sharp as, or have the same physical stamina, of a healthy man in his 40's. But there is simply no comparison when thinking about the capacity for sound judgement between him and his narcissistic, dumb, fascist-friendly opponent; and it is shockingly damaging to healthy politics to have the RW media machine continually and ludicrously claiming that Biden is dementia ridden nursing home material.


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  3. I made it clear I'd prefer Biden over Trump but that doesn't mean Biden is up to the job. He isn't even comparable to a person in their 60's. I am arguing that a man in his 80's is not up to the task of running the most powerful nation in the world. With rare exception we don't even find men that age working. The Democrats should have been preparing a replacement long before this. There's a real chance Trump could win.

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  4. Biden should beat Trump more so if some trials go against him.

    However if Trump does not run then he could be toast.

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  5. Yeah, I agree Homer.

    Trump has a heap of legal trouble coming up, and his erratic response to prosecutions will increase. While his cult base will never abandon him, his selection as candidate would be a powerful incentive for getting the "anyone other than him" vote out.

    If DeSantis is the candidate: well, he doesn't actually have much charisma, and beyond culture warring, nothing much to offer.

    I would still anticipate a Biden win.

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