It's not like I think I am an instant expert on modern land wars in Eastern Europe, or Western Asia?, as so many at the MAGA nutjobs seem to think they are: but it's hard not to conclude as a result of recent news stories that things are not going well for Putin at the moment.
I am therefore somewhat curious as to the amount of copium the conservatives with a culture war hard on for Putin (at the later day Catallaxy blogs, for example) might be huffing at the moment.
Of course, things could turn again, I presume.
the russian military parade showed us a lot of things.
ReplyDeleteThe russians at present do not learn from their mistakes
The Russians are using outdated military tactics. The Ukrainians have been trained by the USA specifically and NATO more broadly. One of the central doctrines of the latter two is that they give on field commanders much more tactical freedom than the still very centralized Russian military. The Ukrainians have demonstrated versatility in the field, the Russians are too often running away, reports of soldiers being drunk on duty, poorly trained, poorly led. While everyone has heard of the Wagner group, one analysis I saw claimed there are a number of independent groups. The reason given for that is Putin doesn't want military types having an excuse to mount a coup. I'm doubtful about that. Another possible reason is that the Wagner Group is more modernised. Wagner has been leading the charge in Bakhmut because contrary to reports Putin was well aware of serious logistic and morale problems in the Russian military, about which the Wagner makes regular social complaints.
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