So, lots of people I follow on Twitter are feeling a bit panicky about the latest NYT poll which shows Trump winning in most of the six "key swing states".
Here, Aaron Blake at the Washington Post looks at the figures more closely, and it does indicate some really odd dynamics currently playing out in US politics. For example:
Particularly remarkable is how much better the Democratic brand does than Biden.
While Biden trails by six points in the six states combined, a generic Democratic Senate candidate leads by four points among likely voters — a 10-point gap, on the margins.
While Biden is close to tied among young and Hispanic voters, that Democratic Senate candidate leads among them by 19 and 16 points, respectively. That generic Democrat also leads by 59 points among Black voters, compared to Biden’s 40-point edge.
As the New York Times’s Nate Cohn notes, the biggest gulf in performance between Biden and other Democrats is in Nevada, where Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) takes 28 percent of Hispanic voters and 26 percent of young voters who are otherwise voting for Trump.
All of which suggests that many of these voters aren’t balking at Democrats — just Biden.
Overall, I would say the strength of Trump in Arizona doesn't make much sense - I had the impression that his permanently soft focus, chronic Trump suck up Kari Lake was floundering quite a lot.
And it seems wildly strange that primary voting Republicans are still registering protest votes against Trump in pretty substantial numbers, yet this doesn't seem to show up in polls.
(I also find it hard to believe that Trump is gaining popularity from his court room appearances. His recent rallies are playing as duds, too.)
It's a very weird situation. Given all of the factors (including reports of Republicans far behind in getting organised for the election), I still don't think the polling can be an accurate prediction of what will happen in November.
Update: Sure, I agree that the nutty Left is very nutty at the moment - the ones who say they will punish Biden for not being tough on Israel by helping ensure a rabid pro-Israel supporter like Trump gets the job instead. And this is bad optics for Biden. But as many have been saying, it's not exactly like the same crisis as the anti-Vietnamese war era, and I doubt it will be as electorally important come November as it now seems.
My guess is most people do not want to think about the election yet.
ReplyDeleteOnce the trial is over and Trump shows how much he has deteriorated and what he is threatening we shall see if the polls change.
Quite a few states are voting on abortion as well
and I doubt it will be as electorally important come November as it now seems.
ReplyDeleteProbably. If the conflict continues it may be worse. Biden is bleeding young voters but not to Trump, to independents like nutjob RFK! Biden needs to do something about Israel and do it publicly.
On Planet America last night they noted that the polling can be deceiving. If you take the raw figures it always looks like Trump is ahead but if you use the "likely to vote" figures Biden is always ahead. I'm still concerned, each candidate is one fall away from losing. The saving grace is Trump's ongoing cognitive decline. Biden needs to lay low as Trump deterioration becomes increasingly obvious.
why do people forget the midterms?
ReplyDeleteThe polling was woeful but it ended up a decision on Trump and abortion.
That is a moot point about people likely to vote as well