Friday, June 17, 2016

Still having an odd feeling about this election

Who am I to disagree with the betting markets and journalists who are already calling it for the Coalition?

The story seems to be that the national swing to (perhaps) 51/50 in favour of Labor is uneven and won't cut it for a Shorten win.

Yet still there seems considerable uncertainty as to what will happen to many seats with Greens and Xenophon playing a big role.   Not sure how Barnaby Joyce is going, but WA seems to be on the nose for the Coalition.   And we haven't even had the campaign launches yet.  Don't they count for anything any more?

It seems to me that Bill Shorten, and most Labor ministers, have looked pretty good in their TV appearances.  Scott Morrison has not.  And Turnbull - well, not entirely sure.   To be honest, I have been busy and not seeing that much on TV lately.  

But for what its worth, to me the "optics" of the situation indicate we should still not be writing off a hung parliament as a possible outcome.


not trampis said...

Let us assume the Coalition win but with a slim majority in the HOR (single digits).I cannot imagine Turnbul would be PM for the next election particularly since a lot of his supporters would be gawn.

I am somewhat surprised no--one is writing about this.

Steve said...

Don't know about that. Seems in the past that a win is a win, as far as the continuation of a PM is concerned.

not trampis said...

but you have to realise they live in the delusional world that Tny Abbott wasn't going to lose bigtinme but win