Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Rambling on about retail woes

Oh good - an ABC report talking about the worrying decline in retail in Australia.

I almost daily walk through 2 suburban shopping centres - one a major sized one, with 3 supermarkets and 3 of the big retailers; and the other a smaller, local one with one supermarket and maybe 20 other small shops and food outlets.

Both were substantially renovated and extended about (I think) 7 or so years ago.

Walking around them these days, you just get the unavoidable feeling that the centre owners expanded too far - they just can't fill all of the space that is now available.  In the last year or so it has become clearly worse in the bigger centre - new tenants who took up leases for 5 or 6 years in the expansion just aren't renewing.

People blame on line shopping for the downturn, but I am not sure it can account for too much of the problem.  (Or is that just my bias because I buy very little on line as I actually want to support retail on the ground?   For some things, though, on line is ridiculously cheaper.   I am astounded at the almost throw away price of some electronics coming out of China.   For example, my car is old enough that it does not have Bluetooth built in, but a device that plugs into the cigarette lighter works fine by rebroadcasting from my phone to the FM radio.  That hi tech, tiny device cost all of $15.)

And the problem is just not Australia.   One of the very, very few useful things  I learn from reading the madhouse comments at Catallaxy is that even in NYC, retail in former swanky retail areas is emptying out.

Another old commenter at that blog was saying recently that he thinks people might just have reached a realisation that they have everything they need.    And I am feeling inclined to agree.  For some electronics stuff (big screen TVs for example), the quality has become so good that you can't imagine needing to upgrade for increased viewing pleasure;  and the build is such that they would seem to have many years of life in them.   I guess TVs always were a bit that way - you never bought one not expecting it to last a long time - but there used to be room for improvement in the basic function in a way that is hard to imagine now.   Other technological changes make some items hardly necessary - DVDs and DVD players are being replaced by streaming services; I hardly ever bother trying to record something off free to air TV now, even with higher definition broadcast.  

Clothes tend to mostly last a long time,  and if I go to DFO I can buy a good business shirt for all of $30 any day of the year.   Any purely cotton item is more likely to need to be replaced more for being completely outdated in fashion terms  rather than for developing holes.  (Except in pockets - that remains the weak spot in pants.)

So, yeah, I am feeling a bit lately like I do have everything I need.   I couldn't think of anything to ask for from my family for my recent birthday.   Or is this just a function of older age?   And busy-ness generally?

Anyway, failing retail feels bad, because of the knock on effect on investment in retail space.   Mind you, maybe part of the problem is ridiculously greedy landlords, too.

A busy marketplace makes everyone feel good, and confident in the economy.   I would like to see retail on the ground at more confident levels than it is now, but I am sure how that is going to happen in current circumstances.... 




2 comments:

Mayan said...

It is apocryphal that when the US economy went over a cliff in 2008, many people left the keys in the letterbox, or sent them to the bank, then walked away: jinglemail.

Since then, it has regularly been restated that this could not occur in Australia because mortgage debt is something the borrower is stuck with, even if they decide to jinglemail. Those making that must surely know this was also the case in many jinglemail states of the US. It seems more like a prayer than a statement of fact. When people simply no longer have money, or a job that has any chance of repaying the debt, the lenders can utter that prayer incessantly without result. If - quite possibly when - the outstanding Australian mortgage debt can no longer be repaid, one wonders what form prayers for the dead banks might take.


not trampis said...

That is correct.

Unlike in Australia the banks cannot hit you for the mortgage to be paid back if you simply leave.
your Credit rating falls bigtime however