I am doing a bit of "man in his shed" speculating here, but I had noticed somewhere that, even though there is a delayed start to the monsoon season in North Australia this summer, the sea surface temperature anomalies are pretty high up that way (in the Indian Ocean, and the Timor and Arafura Seas, at least):
Which made me wonder - very high sea surface temperatures were a feature of the summer before the 2011 floods. How does today compare to then?
Unfortunately, this map does not use the same colour scale, so you have to convert it in your brain:
Now, I know one is a year long analysis, and the other is a one day snapshot: but still, it seems to me that both show a large accumulation of anomalies in the 1.5 to 2 degrees range, with the difference that this year it is bunched up further north.
Still, is the large blob of hot water unusual for this time of year, and does it indicate that when the wet comes, it will be very wet indeed?
I guess we will soon find out...
At the same time the Antarctic was accumulating ice in December. We expect such ice accumulation in August. But December? So the hot December is not an indication of Southern Hemisphere warming more generally.
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