Monday, November 23, 2020

Time for the Reverse Great Leap Forward/Cultural Revolution (which needs a better title)

I was thinking about this article from the Brookings Institute over the weekend:

Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America’s economy. What does this mean for the nation’s political-economic divide? 

Here's an extract:

...the stark economic rift that Brookings Metro documented after Donald Trump’s shocking 2016 victory has grown even wider. In 2016, we wrote that the 2,584 counties that Trump won generated just 36% of the country’s economic output, whereas the 472 counties Hillary Clinton carried equated to almost two-thirds of the nation’s aggregate economy.

A similar analysis for last week’s election shows these trends continuing, albeit with a different political outcome. This time, Biden’s winning base in 477 counties encompasses fully 70% of America’s economic activity, while Trump’s losing base of 2,497 counties represents just 29% of the economy. (Votes are still outstanding in 110 mostly low-output counties, and this piece will be updated as new data is reported.)...

So, while the election’s winner may have changed, the nation’s economic geography remains rigidly divided. Biden captured virtually all of the counties with the biggest economies in the country (depicted by the largest blue tiles in the nearby graphic), including flipping the few that Clinton did not win in 2016.

By contrast, Trump won thousands of counties in small-town and rural communities with correspondingly tiny economies (depicted by the red tiles). Biden’s counties tended to be far more diverse, educated, and white-collar professional, with their aggregate nonwhite and college-educated shares of the economy running to 35% and 36%, respectively, compared to 16% and 25% in counties that voted for Trump.

Trump's appeal to the less well educated was well documented.    And his appeal to less economically important regions seems to be shown as well.

Trump/Republican belief in conspiracy theory is not just dangerous to democracy, it's dangerous to the globe, given they treat climate change as a fraud conducted by socialist scientists.

In Australia, you see a similar dynamic - climate change denialism is biggest in National Party members, isn't it, and they come from rural electorates.

The irony in all of this is that the actual socialist revolution disaster of the Khmer Rouge was all about depopulating cities to get everyone farming.  (The Chinese attempts at farming collectivisation in the Great Leap Forward and subsequent Cultural Revolution being the inspiration, also with terrible results.)  

But now, all the bad ideas come from the rural and less educated areas and have undue influence over how us reality based, city sophisticates, need to run the place. 

I like a drive through the countryside as much as the next city slicker, but if I were trying to organise a better world now, I think there's a good case for depopulating the countryside and rural towns.    

With automation we probably need far fewer people on farms anyway. And cities are supposed to be much more efficient for energy use.   And they vote for fewer numbnuts. 

So, here's the plan:  minimum city size of 1 million.   Round up people from the smaller, non-viable towns and make them live at least 50 km from the nearest city.   Those who must stay on the land for the good of the nation (vineyard growers, for example!) must agree to send their children to university.

The countryside to be reserved for day trippers.   (OK, I'll allow weekends.)

Farming to be more automated than ever before.  (If mines, mining trains, and container shipping ports can be as automated as they now are, there's room for a lot more automation in the fields.)

We have to give up on it being a good idea for people to live in the country.  It's clearly dangerous and a breeding ground for bad ideas.  

OK, and before you say that the failed communist plans were due to city elites sitting around and having bad ideas about how they could control rural populations and activities that they didn't understand at all :   yes true - but my Revolution is about not leaving a rural population there in the first place.   And all I am saying about farming is not that we need more, or less of it, or that it needs anything radical - just that it can be done with a lot fewer people given modern technology.

Of course, those who oppose such a plan - such as the IPA - I make a special exemption for them living in the city.   In fact, they are the only ones who should be forced onto the land.   Sinclair Davidson, John Roskam and the smarmy kids waiting for Liberal pre-selection who work there would do well trying to run a sheep station near Longreach, on quasi-libertarian principles, I'm sure...

You know it makes sense. 

Now for a better name.

Update:   this post was also inspired by my sympathy to takes like this on the American election;



5 comments:

  1. reminds me od the people affected by the franking credits voting for the ALP but pensioners not affected by the franking credits voting against the ALP

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  2. The problem isn't people living in rural regions it is the general level of education and debate within a community. The USA is a bad example for the rest of the advanced nations because as Thurow wrote in 1996: The USA is a first world country with a third world country living within it. That trend is increasingly evident in Aus and Britain where neoliberal policies have been dominant for 40 years. More and more people are feeling disenfranchised when city elites proclaim great economic news while real wages keep declining and farmers are being screwed by Big Food. Rural regions suffer the most because farming is seen as low skilled redneck stuff(it most certainly isn't) and low population density results in poor service provision and a lack of intellectual stimulation.

    The problem is the city elites who have created an economic environment that enables them to increase their wealth at the expense of the rural regions. That's just the start, soon it will be smaller towns that are screwed by those elites, industrial relations policy has very much benefited corporations resulting in wage stagnation and loss of worker protections. The youth are experiencing record rates of anxiety and depression because they are at the pointy end of policies designed to preserve the wealth of the city elites.

    You want a revolution? Make full employment a government mandate and every time it rises politicians' wages fall by a set amount. And get rid of the extreme dominance of the financial sector.

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  3. John, I feel continually conflicted about farmers and their smarts.

    On the one hand, if you watch something like Landline, they often are presented as smart, innovative folk finely attuned to local and international markets and efficient farming.

    Then you watch who their electorates vote for and it's Pauline Hanson and National Party dimwits.

    As I will add in an update, the post is partly inspired by those in America who are sick of journalists and Democrats being told - regardless of election outcomes - that they have to understand the rural Republican base, instead of just calling them out as too dumb to recognise a con man (Trump) when they see one.

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  4. As I will add in an update, the post is partly inspired by those in America who are sick of journalists and Democrats being told - regardless of election outcomes - that they have to understand the rural Republican base, instead of just calling them out as too dumb to recognise a con man (Trump) when they see one.

    Steve, that's a problem as old as primates. In anthropology they refer to the Big Man effect. It is very distressing to witness and as I have previously mentioned it isn't just confined to the uneducated. So many highly educated people at The Cat and elsewhere have succumbed to it.

    I wish I could offer a solution.

    The only way the Left here and in the USA can counter that is to recognise that as much as the rural vote is going to Trump the Left needs to consider that they have forgotten about the uneducated, down and out, and disenfranchised. Until the Left recognises the need to reach out to those people with real policies aimed at helping them enjoy the economic benefits to a greater extent the Left will continue to bleed votes to those like Trump. Charismatic leaders don't arise in a vacuum and often attract the votes\support of those who feel left behind. The resurgence of right wing populism and ultra-nationalism is driven in part by people who looking for someone to blame for their problems and they flock to leaders who identify the culprits. With Trump it was illegal immigrants, the MSM, the UN, and the "swamp".

    This resurgence is not just a problem for the Dems, it is a huge problem for Labor and to date no-one in the Labor Party seems to have a clue as to how to offer hope so and receive support from those who feel the cities have abandoned them. Their argument is not without merit because Australia is basically run from Canberra and Sydney. The only blessing in Aus is that PHON is all but finished but the Shooter's party ... . Albanese is a disaster and the Labor Party lacks courage. The dropping of the franking tax credit and negative gearing initiatives was pure lack of commitment to achieving a more equitable tax distribution in Australia.

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  5. Steve,

    Regarding your "cognitive deficit hypothesis" I turned to a psychodynamic perspective.

    It is true farming is now high tech and farmers need to be much more tuned into technology than in past decades. However farmers constitute a very small proportion of the total rural population.

    Most rural towns don't have cognitively demanding professions hanging their shingles on the main street. In rural regions people don't spend a lot of time talking to each other and typically it takes a considerable amount of time together before people will move beyond casual conservations and get into more meaty subjects. Short conversations don't allow for more demanding subjects to be discussed.
    In cities personal interaction rates are much higher and allow for more in depth discussions because of the frequency of contact. This is drawing from an argument in anthropology that it takes a certain population even to maintain existing knowledge. Agriculture moved beyond, being seasonal it allowed for longer periods of time for social interaction and thinking. Urbanisation in big settlements takes that trend a step further. The consequence is that people living in rural regions experience much less cognitive challenge than in cities. So even if they are educated the social milieu mitigates against them being involved in more challenging discussion.

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