Quite a bit of confidence in it this time around

El Nińo 2015: Largest ever?

Here's a good article summarising the confidence forecasters now have that 2015 will have a strong El Nino.  And the consequences include possible heavy rain for Southern California, which would be good for dried up reservoirs, but may not end longer term drought:

 For those hoping for an end to the drought, multi-year rainfall deficits in California are now so huge that even a very wet year likely wouldn’t erase them. What’s more, heavy El Niño rainstorms frequently come to California via tropical atmospheric river events,
also known as the Pineapple Express. While those rains can help fill dwindling reservoirs, they’re often too warm to produce significant snowpack in the mountains—which is crucial for agricultural needs during the following summer.

So remember that for later in the year when Andrew Bolt claims that climatologists were wrong about the California drought.

I wonder if the heavy rain that it usually brings to parts of South America can reach over to the other side of the continent too, to help drought ravaged Sao Paulo?  (Speaking of which,  I see that an area close to that city has a terrible crime problem.  I kind of assumed it was a safer place than that.  And this article is an interesting take on the drought:
São Paulo water crisis shows the failure of public-private partnerships.

For the "tax land" fans out there

The land tax: What happened to towns like Fairhope, Alabama, that tried Georgism.

A somewhat interesting look at what happened in a few places in America that tried a radically different idea for raising tax.

The future for Andrew Bolt

Yay for Daley

A 'dull and routine' budget that relies on group denial

That John Daley really has a knack for clear writing and explanation on the economy.  (OK, there's another Grattan Institute co-author on this as well.  Sorry Danielle.)

This article confirms what virtually everyone - except this chronically dissembling "say anything" government - knows:  this budget forecasts a return to surplus on a timetable that would be a fluke if it's achieved.

It also shows a government that has incredible inconsistency.  What a great summary Daley and Wood give here:

As well as asking people to accept these rosy assumptions, the budget
also requires impressive mental gymnastics to reconcile this year’s
budget with last year’s rhetoric.

Last year the government said everyone should contribute to the task
of budget repair through a range of unpopular budget measures. One year
later and many of those measures have either been abandoned (GP
co-payments, pension indexation and six-month waiting periods for
Newstart allowance) or are unlikely to pass the Senate (changes to
Family Tax Benefits and higher education reforms). Some groups –
particularly small business – are simply winners.

Last year Tony Abbott was the “infrastructure Prime Minister”. In
this year’s budget, Commonwealth spending on transport infrastructure
falls from 0.5% of GDP in 2015-16 to 0.3% in 2018-19. The largest
addition to infrastructure spending is for the Northern Australia
Infrastructure Facility, which will only cost .02% of GDP per year, and
even that relies on the government finding commercial partners yet to be
identified.

Last year, a “gold standard” paid parental scheme was a “signature
policy”. This year, parental leave payments are in effect being cut for
those who already receive them from their employer.

Last year, we were told that government was too large and spending
was too high. This budget proposes four years in which Commonwealth
spending will be a greater proportion of GDP than all but the two years
of financial crisis under the Rudd-Gillard governments.

Last year we were told this government would fix the budget through
spending reductions, not higher taxes. This year, budget repair is
supposed to result primarily from the tax take increasing by 1.7% of GDP
in four years.

But the greatest cognitive dissonance comes from the government’s fundamental approach to budget repair. While doing nothing was not an option in the face of the “debt and deficit disaster” a year ago, the government has done precisely that. This budget recognises that 2014-15 will be much worse than forecast in last year’s budget. It is probably sensible to slow the pace of budgetary repair in the face of a weakening economy. However, if the recovery forecast for 2016-2018 is as strong as the budget forecasts, then there needs to be substantially more budget repair in these later years. Australia cannot afford otherwise.

  

Just for the record...

...I find it hard to understand the appeal of the Mad Max films.   Post apocalyptic grubby, ugly, violent worlds leave me completely cold, and wishing that all concerned would just have a good bath.  (It's not just desert based films that have this problem - I was recently watching part of Waterworld and wondering how many people didn't like it because of the Costner's unwashed looks - even though he had plenty of ocean to swim in.)

It looks like the revival of the Max series is getting very strong reviews, and I have read that it has much more stunt work that is obviously real than found in many CGI infested films these days.   I suppose that's a good thing, given my complaints along those lines over the years, but I still have no interest in the peculiar genre it inhabits.   And if it is a good movie, it sure isn't reflected in the trailers, which looked completely un-engaging.  

The "say anything" government

This budget has all the features typical of Tony Abbott - opportunistic, unprincipled, a genuine unreliable windvane prepared to say whatever he thinks will go down well with the audience in front of him at the time.

As I understand it, the serious cuts to health from last budget are unaddressed, and I haven't heard anything about the fate of university funding.  The government is hoping that other stupid ideas that sprang from nowhere last budget are quickly forgotten (making young unemployed starve for 6 months being one of the most prominent ones.)

As many people are saying (even those on opposite sides of economics commentary - such as Judith Sloan and Ian Verrender), the budget is in many respects like a Swan one - forecasting return to surplus on assumptions that everyone thinks are brave, very brave.  In Hockey's case, they are not just the guesstimates on increasing national growth and international stability, but also that he can get measures through the Senate.  And bracket creep is to do so much of the lifting, while the retired rich on superannuation are being promised they won't lose their tax free income.  Yeah, that's fair...

As with any government, it's virtually impossible for them to not come up with some decent measure, so the tightening of pension assets tests is hard to criticise.   

But the overriding thing is the way this government changes rhetoric and policies with wild inconsistency.   (And then has the gall to pretend it hasn't really changed much.)  

Contrarian for a living

I've been looking around at some Lomborg stuff, given the continued complaints by the Australian that the University of WA decided it didn't really want to host a contrarian after all.

Media Watch noted that Lomborg very recently came out complaining about international subsidies for fossil fuels - a very Green Party position it would seem.  Yet his views about the poorest of the poor needing to burn coal to lift them out of poverty have been on high rotation for the last couple of years too.  [Oddly, a short video shows him talking about the - very real - problem of bad health caused by indoor fires for cooking:  yet his segue from that is not the simplest one (make sure they have cheap ovens that use chimneys - I saw something about this on TV or the net  recently) but the big one about them needing fossil fuels.]

And I don't think he has ever changed his position that climate change needs a lot of research money put into clean energy.  (Although I think he is now leaning to promoting carbon capture after burning fossil fuel  - which has been proving to be as impractical as skeptics always thought it would.)   Somehow, I can't quite see how this is a natural match to his "the poor need coal" line - or at least, does he mean they need more expensive and innovative coal power stations in Africa than even the American's can get to be cost effective?

As Desmog blog notes, Lomborg has been personally doing OK out of his "consensus" pet projects, and there is no doubt he is favoured by the rich, libertarian leaning Right regardless of things he sometimes says that are Green tinged.

Which leads me back to a comment made by someone in Media Watch, which I think likely summarises him accurately:

Bjorn Borg's talent is game theory. He will play the two sides of the narrative to create confusion. Once you understand his end game, you are trapped neither by your own narrative of climate change being a left right issue, nor by Lomborg's manipulation of the narrative. He is a double dog whistler that sets both sides barking at each other
This is what is important:

1. He is selling to Abbott and co. the promise of confusion around climate policy through the emphasis on other areas.

2. He is selling the opposite to the media so that he can present a misinterpretation of his stance and extend the attention he receives.
3. Everything he has contributed and continues to contribute is of a lower quality than the research and academic standards that are on offer. The government can find better people to ask better questions and get better answers with less money. But it chooses confusion.

Once you understand Game theory, his trickery becomes transparent, and even slightly hamfisted application of it to create the simple goal of confusion and inaction.

Keep directors away from fiddling

I am pretty sure that I only ever saw Blade Runner at the cinema on its original release and never got around to watching it again on VHS or DVD - until last night.

I was aware that the Director's Cut was controversial - friends told me years ago they didn't like it as much as the original, but it seems it is all you can get easily get now.  (That or the "Final Cut", which I gather keeps all the deficiencies of the Directors Cut, but at slightly greater length.)

And boy, are the Director's Cut skeptics right, or what?

The film is not that easily followed without the voice over that Scott complained was forced on him.  And while it's hard to recognise exactly which scenes are new, it drags in a way I certainly do not recall the cinema version did.  I started nodding off, and my son complained he didn't really get the plot.  (I think he could sort of follow the overriding plot - but the film seems not to adequately explain itself at the smaller scale - from one scene to the next.) 

More broadly, it's hard to remember a film which a Director's Cut has improved, isn't it?  Even Spielberg can't be trusted when it comes to this - I prefer the cinema version of Close Encounters to the Special Edition. 

The lesson is that studio enforced changes are sometimes right - and directors need to leave close enough alone.  Especially Ridley Scott...

Oh dear, they didn't get their fair haired boy

Gee, did Rupert send out a message or something that every columnist who has ever written for him has to complain how anti-intellectual it is for an Australian University not to go with providing an outlet for the lukewarmist's favourite fair haired boy, Bjorn Lomborg?

We've got Ergas and Wilson having a whinge today.  Funny thing about Wilson, but his spectacularly self congratulating on line bio has long stated that he's:

Currently completing a Graduate Diploma of Energy and the Environment (Climate Science and Global Warming) at Perth’s Murdoch University.

which I always thought was kind of odd coming from someone willing to get paid by Australia's pre-eminent "think tank" devoted to convincing people that climate change either isn't real, isn't caused by humans if it is real, might be real but won't harm us - in fact it's probably a good thing, and if it is real and is dangerous, well it's too late to do anything about it, or if it isn't too late the only way to deal with it is to go for growth so you have plenty of money to aircondition every house on the planet (oh, and growth means reducing taxes.)   At the IPA, every single road leads to lowering taxes and reducing regulation.      

Looking at some opinion pieces that Wilson wrote while there, I think it's a fair guess that he follows closely the Lomborg lukerwarmer line - he doesn't talk much directly about the science, but devotes a hell of lot of effort to rubbishing any attempt to deal with climate as a political issue.

And that's why, of course, the government is happy to sponsor Lomborg.   They know their climate policy setting is not going to work in the long run; they need to build up a supply of excuses which the likes of Lomborg and Wilson have made their speciality to churn out.

Anyhow, on Lomborg generally, Graham Readfearn wrote a good article a couple of weeks ago, and I'll link to that now.

John Quiggin's take on the whole Copenhagen Consensus project back in 2005 was worth reading too.

Update:   Noticed on twitter:

Confounding humans

Richard Thaler's piece in the New York Times talking about the rise of behavioural economics (he has a book out on the topic that gets an interesting review in the same paper) was a pretty good read.  But I also liked this comment at the side:

Clarification: (1) Economists have never believed that their assumptions about "rationalism" and "money-seeking" described real people--only that their models derived from such assumptions could predict behavior (at least in many specified situations) with a helpful (utilitarian) degree of accuracy. By focusing on the "unreality" of the model assumptions, critics miss the salient point of emphases: how well do economic models predict? When and under what circumstances? Or perhaps, more significantly, should people think of economists as forecasters (foremost, i.e., as portrayed in the media)?

(2) Behavioral economics does not represent a relatively new field of study--it's only new to the math modelers. Cato the Elder wrote on the subject 2500 years ago. The book from the 1960s, "Bears, Bulls, and Dr. Freud still sits on my book shelve. And, McClellan (1958) "The Achieving Society", explained economic growth and prosperity of nations far better than the economic growth models (then or since) created by Nobel-awarded, growth theorist economists whose work was published during that era. David McClelland was a Harvard social psychologist.

Comic book endings

The Atlantic has an article up talking about Age of Ultron and the "sagas" that the superhero comics have tactically developed to try to keep interest.  (This aspect of the Avengers movies is clearly now wearing thin with critics.)

Anyhow, following the article came this comment, which seems to summarise the problem well:

Meh, this is why I ultimately gave up on comic books. I was a huge comics fan in the late 80's/early 90's - mostly Marvel, but also DC and other imprints. I remember the huge crossover Mutant Massacre storyline in 1986 and the fallout thereof, creating new storylines for the X-Men and New Mutants, creating new teams like Excalibur. But I remember several storylines being drawn on an on, and eventually dropped. I still want to know what happened to the Morlocks! I believe this is a structural problem that comics have - the ability for storylines to get bogged down and reboot is also the frustration of never resolving any long running plots. Aristotle stated that every story needs a beginning, middle, and end. Comics are rife with beginnings (origin stories) and middles, but very poor on ends. This is their entire business model, and it's what ultimately pushed me away from comics.   

A bit of gruesome history for the weekend

Execution by Cannon - Beachcombing's Bizarre History Blog

Can't say I had heard of the practice before...

In the schoolyard

James Mollison photographs playgrounds around the world in his book, Playground.

The photos are actually of schoolyards during recess around the world, and it makes for some startling images.

Well may you mock Maurice Newman...

....but this isn't the first conspiracy he's been exposed to:

(OK, maybe his face blends in too well for this to work.)

This is what a libertarian fantasy looks like

Alternative 2015-16 budget - On Line Opinion - 6/5/2015

David Leyonhjelm's "alternative budget" first appeared in AFR,  but it's since appeared at Catallaxy (to near universal acclaim, last I looked - a clear warning sign it's a crock, if ever there was one) and now it's got a run on Online Opinion.   (Only two comments too - I'm not sure whether that's from the unpopularity of the author or the site.)

I was going to post about it earlier, but really, as no one takes it seriously, I didn't get around to it.

Suffice to say the extensive list of matters on which he thinks its a good idea to cut immediately - foreign aid, research, all capital spending except for defence - shows he's a shallow, nutty ideologue who should stick to brushing cats and patting guns.  

Pigs in history

Good food: Nose-to-tail eating | The Economist

From this review of a book about pigs in history:

The curly-tailed animals have proven extraordinarily useful to human development and have been present from the earliest permanent dwellings to modern metropolises. The porcine ability to turn waste of almost any description into protein—thanks to “a simple gut and multipurpose
teeth”, which means it can eat almost anything—ensured that in the ancient Near East, Anglo-Saxon England and the Americas it was theperfect beast to sustain rapidly growing and colonising populations.

Yet the pig’s indiscriminate appetite has also been its worst enemy. Not for nothing is there a Chinese character, qing, that designates both “pigsty” and “outhouse”, and the idea of consuming a beast fed on communal waste has appalled societies from the ancient Egyptians to the Jews and 19th-century New Yorkers. Pigs have also been beset by snobbery, given that pork has regularly provided calories to the poorest members of society. After the Black Death carried off a third of Europe, demand for meat plummeted and so did prices. Peasants
started eating pork; uppity nobles chewed on birds and beef instead.

Mr Essig’s main point is that the better people treat pigs, the more they like them. Romans lavished love and attention on their pigs, allowing them to wander in the woods, eating nuts and grains. In return, they enjoyed delicious meat. Post-war America industrialised pig production, inventing indoor cages and “a litany of horrors” for their sows, and found the meat was mushy and tasteless. As a consequence, pork consumption has been static for 30 years.

Amateur philosophy and the superhuman

The moral imperative to research editing embryos: The need to modify Nature and Science | Practical Ethics

I see via Jason Soon that there is a bit of a push back against the backlash in Nature and Science about the Chinese who conducted gene editing experiments on (non viable) human embryos.  The article above is one of them.

Now I understand, to a degree, their complaint that the Chinese research was not on viable embryos, so there was no risk of harm in that particular experiment.  And if anything, its results serve as a warning that such editing is not reliable enough to try on viable human embyros, so in that sense it could be welcomed as showing that the dangers from trying to do such work are real.

However, it is pretty clear that the defenders go further - they actually want to see human genome edited for improvement, seeing it as our science fiction-y, transhumanist destiny.   The rest of us are sticks in the mud (probably Christians) standing in the way of progress.   All very Nietzschean. 

But you really have to wonder about the dubious way the guys who wrote the article linked above deal with the question of responsibility in this paragraph:

Imagine that I am a scientist. I have a promising candidate treatment
that could save the lives of 30 million people per year. I decide not to
continue the research. I am responsible for the deaths of those 30
million people if my research would have led to a cure.

This is just a silly attempted extension of the concept of  "responsibility" if you ask me, and reeks of amateur, late night bar room philosophy.   How could they have left that line in and not expect it to detract from their credibility?

The desire to improve humans developmentally is not per se wrong - ensuring adequate nutrition and vitamins for mothers to prevent avoidable problems is a good thing.  But the obvious solution to eliminating the worst genetic disorders is by either not having babies at all once it is discovered you are carrying a dangerous gene, or at least screening embryos for the defect.  Neither carries the risk of inadvertent harm caused by what is likely to be the inevitable imprecision of seeking to repair individual genes, and it's not as if humanity doesn't have enough healthy gene lines to keep the species going.

As for the desire to improve the germ line - you're a philosophical amateur if you can't acknowledge the ethical question it raises as to which human qualities deserve enhancement or removal.  

All was revealed

I woke up this morning from an odd but not unpleasant dream, which initially featured zombie like re-animated dead people (they could talk but not move much) who basically appeared puzzled as to why they were alive again.  To one of them talking about death, I made a comment along the lines that matter may eventually disappear, but information is never lost.  He scoffed at the suggestion, saying that he couldn't see how that made sense, as you needed matter to encode information.

Dream-me then had some exciting insight into information leaking into another universe, and the idea that other universe information watchers became the people who decided what was moral or not in this universe.  I ran off somewhere in a dream Brisbane to write it all down, but someone rudely suggested it might just be a good plot for Dr Who.

I have the feeling seafood somehow got involved too.

Anyway, I woke up to think for a while if there is any theory floating around that does involve information never being lost.  (I keep remembering a line from Spielberg's AI when I think about this.)

I then watched David Leyonhjelm (or his missus) brushing a cat.

More American right wing paranoia

Paranoia Strikes Derp - NYTimes.com

Paul Krugman brings to my attention some current Right wing nuttiness in America, that the dim Ted Cruz is prepared to entertain, at least to the extent of asking the Pentagon about it.  (I bet they're impressed with the idea of him as a possible boss.)

A good case

Coalition economic agenda is crony capitalism | Crikey

I don't always agree with BK, but I reckon he makes a reasonable case here.

Good TV

Two great shows on the ABC last night:

*  Foreign Correspondent visited King George Island, at the northern top of Antarctica, and which has several national research bases.  (I had posted a photo of its "what's that doing here?" Russian Orthodox church a few years ago.)   Eric Campbell spoke to scientists, all concerned about climate change and the clear melting it is causing in that part of Antarctica, and talked about the international co-operation in that part of the world.   A fascinating show all around.

*  Griff Rhys Jones is making his way through Africa - by train.  (! Didn't realise there were many trains to try there.)  Last night's show, up on iView for now at least, had him starting in Morroco and making his way to the east, while having to cross disputed borders by jumping back to Europe. (! again.)

Travel shows rarely visit Northern Africa, apart from Marrakesh perhaps, so it was a great surprise to learn that the French had built some pretty fancy train lines and stations, and much of the countryside of in that part of the world looked pretty attractive.

The city of Fez in Morocco looked fascinating, but the biggest surprise was the remarkable appearance of the city of Constantine (in Algeria), built around a huge gorge.  As this article says, it may be the most beautiful city you've never heard of.  Pity the show didn't spend more time there...

Avengers backlash stronger than I thought

Who is this Jason Wilson who writes at the Guardian, and why does he look sort of like an aging daggy hipster but without the beard?

Anyhow, he spends a lot of time complaining about the Marvel franchise in light of Age of Ultron, which saves me doing it.   (Well, not that I can do it well, seeing I am not going to see it.)

Elsewhere, I see that a conservative Catholic priest complains about the movie in a post with the title ''The Avengers'' and Friedrich Nietzsche".

That said, I'd still see a Guardians of the Galaxy sequel if it gets good reviews.

Update:  and still it comes!  I had missed the iO9 "Hater's Guide to Avengers: Age of Ultron".   The lameness of the (apparently) recurring glowy cubes is dealt with here:

Nearly every Marvel movie has had one of these f**king glowy cubes or gems or eggs or whatever, and they’ve all contained an Infinity Gem, which means quite a bit to longtime comic readers, but I have to guess next to nothing to anyone else beyond, “Jesus why are all these movies about cosmic jelly beans?” Anyway, lots of Infinity Gems, and we’re going to get a whole TWO PART space-Avengers movie, and it will probably be cool, but if you follow the logic of the after-credits scene with Thanos saying he’ll just go do it himself ... what the f**k has he been doing? This guy has just been sitting on a space rock for like four movies now sending other, clearly incompetent dipshits around to zero effect! The guy in Guardians of the Galaxy even told him to eat shit once he got an Infinity Gem, and Thanos didn’t do shit about it! Is Thanos even going to be that hard to fight? Like, how does he do cardio on that lil asteriod? Thor in 8.

The only surprise to me is that it has taken this long for people to realise that comic book superhero stories just aren't that good.

Not mentioned in polite company anymore

I guess the free travel and accommodation paid for by mining billionaires and mystery funded "think tanks" has dried up, so former climate change denier guest speaker Christopher Monckton may feel free to be more open about his conspiracy thoughts:

Found via Hotwhopper.  (See link at the side.)

Slow science

Warm oceans caused hottest Dust Bowl years in 1934/36

This seems to makes sense, given that California has been hot lately with a large pool of warm water off its coast.

But why has it taken so long to look at this with respect to the unusually warm years in the 1930's.  (Or has it already been done in other studies, and this is just inadequate science reporting?)

Pot windfall skepticism

Interesting article in The Atlantic expressing skepticism that one of the key selling points for legalising marijuana in Colorado (raising money needed for schools) is likely to work as advertised.

Amusingly, part of the problem is something that sounds like one of those Tea Party/libertarian inspired "let's stop the government getting a cent more than they should" ideas:

What's more, in an awkward (and perhaps embarrassing) twist, all that money could be lost. That’s because, under Colorado’s “Taxpayer Bill of Rights,” if in any given year the state reaps more tax money than revenue forecasters had projected, the state must return that extra revenue to taxpayers. This year, the provision will be triggered because—even though the pot money came in lower than expected—the state collected more tax revenue overall thanks to other industries such as energy and oil. Lawmakers are now crafting a bill that would ask voters this fall to approve an exemption to that provision for the pot tax.

Down in comments, someone makes what I think might be a pretty good point:

A legal market in pot never mattered that much to me. It's absurdly overpriced, considering that it can be easily grown in personal-use quantities. The important thing is to allow legal possession of reasonable quantities (a few plants, a few ounces), legal non-profit transfer and gifting between adults, legal seed sales, and home cultivation. Like household brewing of beer and wine.

Two things I don't want: legal pot as a commercially advertised product on broadcast media, and government dependent on pot as a revenue source. Marijuana is better off as something that's low-key, discreet, and no big deal. It's also better off as a negligible expense, which puts more disposable income into the hands of people who can spend it on something other than a non-poisonous, non-invasive annual weed that's easily cultivated in a few square feet of space, either indoors or outdoors.

 Yes.   It seems to me that a major part of the legalisation problem will be from allowing capitalists to actively promote the market for a substance which the government really has an interest in limiting. 

Battery power revolution?

John Quiggin thinks the Tesla domestic battery story is very big indeed.

Nature has a much more conservative take on it.

The truth perhaps lies somewhere between.

China and drug use

'Breaking Bad' in China: how meth is spreading across rural heartland - CSMonitor.com

This is a good report about illicit drug use in China.

I didn't realise that even in that country, a substantial change towards harm minimisation has been underway for nearly a decade:

Since 2006, the Chinese authorities have tackled heroin abuse by decriminalizing the drug’s use and opening nearly 900 methadone clinics to wean addicts off it. But no drug like methadone that would help methamphetamine users break their habit has been found, so no such medical approach has been possible.

Some caught using meth are encouraged to attend voluntary detoxification centers; most – especially if they are caught a second time – are sent to compulsory detox facilities in former prisons and held for as long as two years with no judicial or medical intervention.

Methadone programs have been available across the West for decades; clearly, it is even pretty widely used in the US too.

Libertarians, who like slogans and fantasy more than working out the detailed solutions to real, complicated issues, continually use the "war on drugs - oh my God it's a complete failure!" line while ignoring the fact that it seems nearly all nations incorporate a harm minimisation approach to at least this major illicit drug.  (Well, I guess, if they can afford it.   I don't imagine much is available in somewhere like Afghanistan.)

Legalising highly addictive drugs is always going to be problematic, because the costs of addiction at individual, social and economic levels are always likely to be high.

But let's just chant "we have to end this War on Drugs" and leave it there, shall we?

Good

US 'will not fund research for modifying embryo DNA' - BBC News

As it says at the end:

Dr Collins, who was also a key player in the Human Genome Project, released a statement saying: "The concept of altering the human germline in embryos for clinical purposes has been debated over many years from many different perspectives, and has been viewed almost universally as a line that should not be crossed.

"Advances in technology have given us an elegant new way of carrying out genome editing, but the strong arguments against engaging in this activity remain.

"These include the serious and unquantifiable safety issues, ethical issues presented by altering the germline in a way that affects the next generation without their consent, and a current lack of compelling medical applications."

Dr Marcy Darnovsky, from the Center for Genetics and Society in the US, argued: "There is no persuasive medical reason to manipulate the human germline because inherited genetic diseases can be prevented using embryo screening techniques, among other means.

"Is the only justification for trying to refine germline gene editing the prospect of so-called enhancement?"

Music video time

So, it seems to have been around for 6 months, but I only recently saw this simple but amusing video clip from George Ezra (and friend):

South East Queensland and rainfall intensity: so this is what global warming looks like?

Rainfall statistics can be analysed any number of ways, and it seems to me that intensity of rainfall is one of the things that has become very important but is being investigated a bit too slowly. 

My strong, strong hunch is, however, that at least South East Queensland (if not other parts of the country) is now clearly undergoing the type of intensification of rainfall that was always expected under global warming and is suffering badly for it.  

Last Friday's rainfall was deadly, remarkable, and unseasonal across most of the South East, but particularly just to the north of Brisbane.   It reminded me of the intensity of rainfall that led to the Lockyer Valley disasters in the 2011 floods - where all forms of normal drainage (and Brisbane's drainage is built to sub-tropical standards) is so overwhelmed  that the flood is disastrously out of the norm in terms of suddenness of onset.    

But I'm not sure whether we are getting a good analysis of this in a timely fashion.

See, while it's interesting that a daily rainfall total might be a record for the time of year, I don't know that this captures the importance of the hourly intensity of rainfall adequately.

There may well be some academic papers on this around the place, but if so, it seems to me it is not attracting adequate publicity via the Bureau of Meteorology.  (Although I think the public knows something is going on.)

Alternatively, I could be wrong and the intensity is not out of the norm in historic terms.   I very much doubt that is the case, however. 

Update:  my point was alluded to in this article in The Conversation (my bold):

The problem is: “How can we estimate the frequency of rare extreme events from observations, or events that we are yet to witness, such as a 1-in-500-year event?” To solve this problem we need to model the data and use it to extrapolate outside our observations.

When we’re talking about flash floods and extreme rainfall, we want to know the highest rainfall in a single day or in a few hours, rather than total rainfall over longer periods such as a month or year. The best long-term rainfall observations are for daily rainfall.

1930's naughtiness update

Last week, on a whim, I was using Trove to find early Australian newspaper references to nudism, and turned up a series of stories from 1929 and into the 30's indicating the interest the topic attracted in Australia and the US.  

Today I Googled to see if a Pope had ever weighed in on the matter, and indeed, a 1930's Pope (Pius XI) did*:

 

That lecture seems a little late - the newspaper clippings I had in my previous post show that in 1932 and 1933 (the latter after Hitler had taken power) Germany was already banning the "cult of nudity".

But more interesting was an extract I found from an article about the future Pius XII, the wartime Pope, before he took on the top job:

In 1926, Pacelli was Vatican ambassador, or nuncio, to Germany, and he alerted Rome to the “moral perils” confronting Catholics in the freedoms of Weimar democracy. “Perhaps the thorniest problem for religious life and pastoral care,” he wrote, was Germans’ propensity to use contraceptives and have abortions. He railed against the “perverse propaganda of nudism,” and against the Tango, which was “of very evil origin.” “Any gymnastics wear for girls,” he continued, “that proactively accentuates their shapes or that is inappropriate for the female character must be avoided.”

Germany had just experienced the greatest cataclysm since the seventeenth century, and Berlin was a place where impoverished shopkeepers queued at soup kitchens while disfigured veterans asked for handouts on street corners. Working class families lived six to a room. But what bothered Pacelli were girls’ gym clothes. Pleasure and license posed a danger to eternal salvation, but poverty did not.

I didn't realise the concern with which the Tango was held in the early 20th century.  

And here we are, nearly a century later, we have a Pope who used to dance it, and still holds in fond regard:

In an interview published three years ago, the then Cardinal Bergoglio said of the tango, ‘I like it a lot. It’s something that comes from within me.’ He showed great knowledge of the tango’s history and of its most famous performers, especially mentioning Ada Falcón, an Argentine tango singer and actress of great wealth and celebrity who, 60 years before her death in 2002, suddenly gave up a life of luxury and romantic turbulence to live in seclusion in Buenos Aires.

Times change...

* from "Naked:  A Cultural History of American Nudism", which seems to have just been published this year.

What is it about the eyes?

Through This Chemical Loop, Dogs Win Our Hearts – Phenomena: Not Exactly Rocket Science

Well, given our dog's death last weekend, it seems apt to post about this recent story, which reported both humans and dogs getting an oxytocin boost from even just looking at each other.

This puts me in mind of the "how to fall in love" story from earlier this year - which ends with silent staring into each other's eyes.

I'm finding it rather odd that it is eye gazing in particular which seems to have powerful binding effects.  

Peak superhero?

Hmmm.   Of course, I've been hoping for this for years, and with the amount of money they make, there is really no reason for optimism.   But - with Avengers: Age of Ultron getting a relatively modest 73% on Rottentomatoes, I at least get the feeling that critically, we may have reached, and passed Peak Superhero.

The common theme amongst those critics who are underwhelmed is that the climatic, city wide destruction fights are all looking very same-y these days.   How true. (Well, I think, since I only get to view them in bits in pieces when they show up on free to air TV a few years later.)

Anthony Lane writes one of the wittiest reviews of the movie, with sections like this:

The story begins with a fight in a forest and ends with a fight in a city that floats in midair. In between, there is a fight in a castle, a fight on a freeway, and a fight in the wake of a cocktail party. The loudest fight is a tussle between Iron Man and the Hulk, which is part of a cunning scheme to rip the Avengers apart. Bring it on, I say. It has something to do with dreams, which are triggered by a blast of hypno-magic from the Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen), a new player in the game; each hero is disabled by harsh visions, tailored to touch upon his or her worst fears. I vaguely hoped that Thor would find himself holding hands with Hello Kitty, but no joy.

The experience of watching “Avengers: Age of Ultron”—which is not just long but, in Iron Man’s words, “Eugene O’Neill long”—runs as follows. First, you try to understand what the hell is going on. Then you slowly realize that you will never understand what is going on. And, last, you wind up with the distinct impression that, if there was anything to understand, it wasn’t worth the sweat.

By the way, showing that he's not just a humourist, Anthony Lane writes well about Gallipoli in another piece inspired by ANZAC Day (and the movie "The Water Diviner".) 

Gerard backed a loser

Dissembling with graphs: Murry Salby edition | Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology

Further to my suggestion that Gerard Henderson retire, remember that it was his Sydney Institute which first gave a public airing of Murry Salby's late life crisis in which he had decided that CO2 had virtually nothing to do with increasing global warming in the 20th century.

Of course, most in Gerard's audience couldn't really follow what Salby was arguing; those who read climate blogs saw that all other scientists immediately recognised that his argument made no sense at all. He lost his Australian job before it had really started, over some dispute or other about its terms. I see that Salby didn't even make into the IPA's latest bit of effort to promote crap about climate change. 

Anyhow, just in case anyone thought he was a misunderstood genius, have a look at the post above for some stunning examples of deceptive material he now presents at talks that he is apparently still giving. Amazing.

A fast food and diet observation

It seems years since I've eaten chicken pieces from KFC.  The occasional burger, yes.  But pieces of chicken, no.

But two nights this week, I've eaten cold KFC chicken.  (I got home late, that's all.)

I found it nicer than I remembered.  Much nicer.   Not very greasy, really.  Especially as it was cold.  I sometimes think I prefer cold chicken to hot.

It might also be partly because of being on a 5-2 diet.  It seems to heighten appreciation for the taste of food, even on a non fasting day.

Celebrating brain injury

I entirely concur with the bandanna clad one (Peter FitzSimons, if you didn't know), even though I rarely read anything he writes, in his article about boxing.

That is, once you know the intrinsically damaging nature of boxing as a sport, how can you intellectually consider it as a endeavour worthy of support? 

Chronic traumatic brain injury (CTBI) associated with boxing occurs in approximately 20% of professional boxers.

  The repeated head blows sustained by fighters during their battles link to slower cognitive processing speeds and smaller volumes of certain brain parts.

Not sure that I would ban it if I were Benevolent Ruler of the World.   Perhaps pay for an advertising  campaign designed to shame people out of supporting the sport, though.   Or put money into developing exoskeleton boxing.  (I have my doubts that people are ever going to get sufficient thrill out of watching boxing robots, like in that silly Real Steel movie.  Maybe if they build in blood bags ready to be splattered?)  But what if there's a human in a suit designed to prevent a head taking a full blow?   But why am I worried about satisfying the desire for biffo anyway?   It's all something to do with testosterone and evolutionary biology I suppose, and I feel I need to accept that in some fashion or other.  

OK, here's a compromise:  professional boxing allowed, but it's mandated by law that it has to end with a bonobo style, bonding-despite-the-fight-we-just-had, same-sex love in between the competitors before they leave the ring.

There, the problem of professional boxing solved.   (I'm sure Jason Soon will be impressed.)

Yet more lucid, convincing, Krugman

The austerity delusion | Paul Krugman | Business | The Guardian

Yet another good, long, read from Krugman on austerity, Keynesian and anti-Keynesian forces, and England in particular.    (The way The Guardian presents the article graphically is pretty neat too.)

I especially find this section pretty convincing, especially when you read the never ending defence of corporations and businesses (along the lines "how dare anyone accuse Google or Apple of not paying enough tax!") that comes from the IPA associated economists:

Beyond that lies a point made most strongly in the US by Mike Konczal of
the Roosevelt Institute: business interests dislike Keynesian economics
because it threatens their political bargaining power. Business leaders
love the idea that the health of the economy depends on confidence,
which in turn – or so they argue – requires making them happy. In the US
there were, until the recent takeoff in job growth, many speeches and
opinion pieces arguing that President Obama’s anti-business rhetoric –
which only existed in the right’s imagination, but never mind – was
holding back recovery. The message was clear: don’t criticise big
business, or the economy will suffer.

But this kind of argument loses its force if one acknowledges that job
creation can be achieved through deliberate policy, that deficit
spending, not buttering up business leaders, is the way to revive a
depressed economy. So business interests are strongly inclined to reject
standard macroeconomics and insist that boosting confidence – which is
to say, keeping them happy – is the only way to go.

Busy, back soon...

A pet's passing

In 2005 in the early days of this blog, I posted this photo of our sweet natured dog, Pochi:

She quite suddenly took ill on Thursday night and died peacefully at home this afternoon, aged close to 16.  The only pet our children have know (we got her before our eldest was born), her sudden departure is being keenly felt tonight...

A bit weird

Liquid mercury found under Mexican pyramid could lead to king's tomb | World news | The Guardian

Time to retire, Gerard

Gerard Henderson's weekly, self-indulgent bore sessions now appear (and not behind a paywall) at The Australian.  This week he gets to re-visit such compelling issues as an ABC Chairman 40 years ago writing a letter to the Sydney Morning Herald in which he defended the airing of a documentary program about pederasty.

Henderson interprets the letter as being a call for sympathetic understanding of pederasty, but it's a bit of culture war cherry picking if ever there was one, given how the letter goes on to refer to uncivilised behaviour.  How outrageous, says Gerard, that the current ABC Chairman refuses to apologise for this.  If it had been a Catholic Bishop who had done this, how different things would be.  (The implication - "everyone has to agree with how I read the letter.")

I think it's clear why Henderson raises this again this week:  it's one of the near routine, and pathetic, attempts at a counterattack you see from the Right wing culture warriors any week in which someone from the Churches has come out badly in the Royal Commission into Institutional Child Abuse.  In this case, a retired Catholic Bishop who apologises for taking 3 years to stop a pedophile priest from having contact with children, and then writing a character reference for him.   Rather more dire, by a magnitude or three, than an academic head of the national broadcaster saying a documentary about pederasty was not intended to offend.  

Gerard is scrapping the very bottom of the faux moral equivalence outrage barrel on this one.  He really ought to retire, it's becoming so embarrassing some of the lines he chooses to pursue.   

He also has a characteristic that Andrew Bolt and a host of other Right wing commentators now routinely display:   they don't just spend time trying to explain why a particular take on a matter is wrong; they devote a huge amount of effort to complaining about how people - the media, celebrities, academics - don't agree with them.

It's boring and tedious, and I mainly put it down to a "chip on the shoulder" that they have developed about not being able to convince scientists, academia and sufficient politicians that climate change is a non-issue.

For ANZAC Day

I see that the Queensland State Library has been putting up some ANZAC Day material for the 100th anniversary, including some good, short videos.  I liked this one:



Update:  there's also a remarkably good set of World War 1 photos (including some from Gallipoli) up at The Atlantic.

The only reservation I have about them is the way black and white photos tend to make the past look more distant that it really is...

Nudes from the Brisbane Courier 1933

Update:  Well, that put an end to the fun that Brisbane papers had been been following for a while.  From the Sunday Mail on 31 March 1929:

Why am I searching old Brisbane papers for reference to nudists?   Because I can....

Update 2:   this cable news report from America turned up in several Queensland papers around 24 August 1931:

Quite the moral panic...

Update 3:  whoever it was who was filing reports for the Australian Cable Service liked to keep the nation informed about the New York nudist threat.  On 14 December 1931:

Update 4:  Oh no!  By 16 December, the arrested indoor nudists had had a win:

Update 5:  Good Lord!  There were serious nudist outbreaks happening in Sydney, as reported on 1 January 1932:

Update 6:   By 16 August 1932, there were news reports which combined both Hitler's rise to power, and the German government crackdown on nudists and women wearing pajamas in restaurants.   (I'm not sure, but there's a fair chance that might be the only time Hitler and PJ's ever made it into the same news story.):

The evil sausage

In case you are a visitor who never scrolls down to see if I have updated a post, you should at least look at the latest update to my fermented meat post just a few posts back.  The religious history of the sausage gets a mention there...

Daly really wants super tax to bite

Labor’s superannuation tax policy needs more bite | Grattan Institute

John Daly, who impressed lots of people on Q&A recently, thinks the Labor changes to superannuation tax should be much, much tougher.  I'm scared for Judith Sloan's bold button if she gets to read this - it will be overworked to oblivion.

Francis not pleasing anyone?

Pope Francis is starting to look a lot like Sarah Palin or Kevin Rudd | Kristina Keneally | Comment is free | The Guardian

A bit tough, I think, Kristina...

Fermented meat and oxygen

I don't understand fermented meat products.  Like, how they were invented.

And although it's not fermented meat, I recently found that beef jerky has fairly low calories, and eating some with salad makes for a pretty satisfying lunch when on a "fast " day on the 5:2 diet.

I also realised recently that I didn't know much about how the International Space Station maintains a healthy atmosphere.  Some initial looking at websites indicates it's pretty complicated.  This also made me realise that I don't know if NASA has any good idea as to the system to use on a Mars mission.  Or, for that matter, if Mars One has any idea.   Electrolysis of water is a key part of the ISS system; I guess having a Mars base near ice would be very handy, then, for a permanent base.  Provided you can trust your equipment to never break down.

I need to do more reading...

Update:   a site with the grand name "SoyInfo Centre [World's Most Complete Collection of Soy Information]"  has a lengthy essay on the history of fermentation generally, with this somewhat interesting section:

The first solid evidence of the living nature of yeast appeared between 1837 and 1838 when three publications appeared by C. Cagniard de la Tour, T. Swann, and F. Kuetzing, each of whom independently concluded as a result of microscopic investigations that yeast was a living organism that reproduced by budding. The word "yeast," it should be noted, traces its origins back to the Sanskrit word meaning "boiling." It was perhaps because wine, beer, and bread were each basic foods in Europe, that most of the early studies on fermentation were done on yeasts, with which they were made. Soon bacteria were also discovered; the term was first used in English in the late 1840s, but it did not come into general use until the 1870s, and then largely in connection with the new germ theory of disease.

The view that fermentation was a process initiated by living organisms soon aroused fierce criticism from the finest chemists of the day, especially Justus von Liebig, J.J. Berzelius, and Friedrich Woehler. This view seemed to give new life to the waning mystical philosophy of vitalism, which they had worked so hard to defeat. Proponents of vitalism held that the functions of living organisms were due to a vital principal (life force, chi, ki, prana , etc.) distinct from physico-chemical forces, that the processes of life were not explicable by the laws of physics and chemistry alone, and that life was in some part self determining. As we shall soon see, the vitalists played a key role in debate on the nature of fermentation. A long battle ensued, and while it was gradually recognized that yeast was a living organism, its exact function in fermentations remained a matter of controversy. The chemists still maintained that fermentation was due to catalytic action or molecular vibrations.

The debate was finally brought to an end by the great French chemist Louis Pasteur (1822-1895) who, during the 1850s and 1860s, in a series of classic investigations, proved conclusively that fermentation was initiated by living organisms. In 1857 Pasteur showed that lactic acid fermentation is caused by living organisms. In 1860 he demonstrated that bacteria cause souring in milk, a process formerly thought to be merely a chemical change, and his work in identifying the role of microorganisms in food spoilage led to the process of pasteurization. In 1877, working to improve the French brewing industry, Pasteur published his famous paper on fermentation, Etudes sur la Biere , which was translated into English in 1879 as Studies on Fermentation . He defined fermentation (incorrectly) as "Life without air," but correctly showed specific types of microorganisms cause specific types of fermentations and specific end products. In 1877 the era of modern medical bacteriology began when Koch (a German physician; 1843-1910) and Pasteur showed that the anthrax bacillus caused the infectious disease anthrax. This epic discovery led in 1880 to Pasteur's general germ theory of infectious disease, which postulated for the first time that each such disease was caused by a specific microorganism. Koch also made the very significant discovery of a method for isolating microorganisms in pure culture.

Gee.  It's easy to forget how something so spectacularly important to 20th century improvements to longevity was only being worked out in the late 19th century.

But it still doesn't help with my fermented meat issue, in particular.

Update 2:   turns out European fermented sausage is not so old:

 From the 1995 book Fermented Meats.

Update the Third:   Tim, I know you have a particular interest in fermentation, and did a post on a book all about it.  Does it explain how fermented sausage making got started?  

Update 4:    Brilliant!  From Meat Fermentation at the Crossroads of Innovation and Tradition - A Historical Outlook:

 And I have learnt that there is a "Dry Salami Institute" (in San Francisco, of all places):

I also did not know of the Catholic controversy over sausages.   I'm guessing the phallic shape has something to do with it:

Lest we Forget [with apologies to the RSL...]

Today:

Slippery judicial slopes

The Democracy in America blog at The Economist has a post which is relatively sympathetic to the argument that the American voters should decide when they are ready for gay marriage, not the Supreme Court.  In it, they note the slippery slope argument for polygamy as follows:

The states' arguments taste of rather weak tea, but the line-drawing point should give pause to even the liberal justices. In framing their view as one of "marriage equality", and in urging a shift from procreation to state-recognised intimacy as the basis of marriage, the challengers of the state bans open themselves up to worries about where this all ends. We don't have to revert to Rick Santorum's ridiculous comparison of homosexuality to "man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be" to imagine polygamists pressing for their day in court were the justices to affirm a new constitutional right to same-sex marriage. There may be much better policy arguments for a ban on polygamy than for prohibitions on gay marriage (and there certainly are strong state interests in maintaining age-of-consent laws) so the worry is not that handing gays and lesbians this new right will destroy marriage as we know it. But the issue will come up, and the justices need to find a way to expand the boundaries of marriage without erasing them.

This could account for some family fallout

Cannabis consumers show greater susceptibility to false memories

One of my impressions of the downside of recreational drug use is that it can lead to relationship breakdown - with parents and siblings - often in families that previously seemed happy.

If this research is correct, it could well give a partial expectation at least for the cannabis user.  

Down Mexico way

Why Douching Won't Die — The Atlantic

A rather odd article this, that mainly concentrates on the rise of douching in Mexico.  As people in the comments following say, the article is a bit light on with what doctors actually know about the detriments it causes.

Reviewing reviews of Piketty

John Quiggin � Waiting for the fallout: Australia and return of the patrimonial society

Good post here by JQ talking about Piketty.