On re-thinking Iraq

The departing editor of The Economist (he's been there 13 years) gets to talk about how the world has changed in the period. On the magazine's decision to support the invasion of Iraq, he writes this:

All of which is the background to the most controversial decision of this editorship: the decision to support the American-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Our reasoning began with the fact that the status quo was terrible: doing nothing, whether about Iraq or about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was itself a deadly decision. It went on to the risk that Saddam still had a stock of weapons of mass destruction that if left in power he might wish to use or to sell. In the light of September 11th and the dismal results from 13 years of sanctions, we argued that wishful thinking about Saddam would be reckless. The West should invade, remove him from power, and throw its considerable resources behind the rebuilding of a free Iraq.

The ensuing three years, I hardly need to say, have seen a debacle. His WMDs turned out to be a bluff, fooling even his own generals. Elections have been held, a constitution has been written, but no government is in place. Institutions remain in tatters. Whether or not a civil war is under way is largely a semantic issue. Dozens of Iraqis are dying every day, killed by other Iraqis. So does this prove our decision wrong, just as the good outcome in ex-Yugoslavia put our “stumbling” warning in the shade?

This will outrage some readers, but I still think the decision was correct—based on the situation at that time, which is all it could have been based on. The risk of leaving Saddam in power was too high. Outside intervention in other countries' affairs is difficult, practically, legally and morally. It should be done only in exceptional circumstances, and backed by exceptional efforts. Iraq qualified on the former. George Bush let us—and America—down on the latter. So, however, did other rich countries: whatever they thought of the invasion, they had a powerful interest in sorting out the aftermath. Most shirked it.

Sounds reasonable to me.

When prayer seems to fail

Slate writer William Saletan has often been mentioned on this blog, and his latest article on the recent study about prayer and its effect on post surgery recovery is another good, half amusing, half serious, read.

Continuing an anti cat crusade...

If the birds don't give you the flu, maybe your cat will:

It is vital to restrict the spread of bird flu in cats in order to protect human health, scientists warn.

Writing in Nature, scientists from Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, say the risk is being overlooked.

Ｍｕｓｔ ｃａｎｃｅｌ ｍｙ Ｍａｒｓ ｔｉｃｋｅｔ

Ｔｈｉｓ　ｄｏｅｓ　ｎｏｔ　ｓｏｕｎｄ　ｇｏｏｄ：

Former NASA Payload Specialist James Pawelczyk told an Experimental Biology 2006 meeting Tuesday in San Francisco every cell in one's body could experience a high energy event with heavy metal ions during the 13- to 30-month Mars round trip.

Ｍｕｓｔ ｔｒｙ ｈａｒｄｅｒ ｔｈａｎ ｔｈｉｓ

Ｓｅｅ　ｔｈｉｓ　ｓｔｏｒｙ　ｆｏｒ　ａ　ｒｅａｌｌｙ　ｐａｔｈｅｔｉｃ　ａｔｔｅｍｐｔ　ｔｏ　ｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅ　ｆａｔｈｅｒｓ　ｒｏｌｅ　ｉｎ　ｃｈｉｌｄ　ｒｅａｒｉｎｇ　ｉｎ　Ｊａｐａｎ．　：

Under the revisions -- the latest policy measure aimed at dealing with the anemic birthrate -- expecting fathers, as well as mothers, will receive a notebook to keep records on the health of mother and child from pregnancy through early childhood, LDP members said.

The name of the notebook will be changed from the "maternal and child health handbook" to the "parent and child health handbook."

I have a dream...

A couple of nights ago, I had another one of my `proof of flying` dreams. While many people may have dreams in which they can fly, I am not sure how common my (recurring) variation would be.

In the dream I have the ability to fly. Just need to get myself in the right frame of mind, and I can levitate off the ground and swan around in the air. I never fly too high, just a few metres.

During the dream, I am flying alone and unobserved, and am very aware that people will not believe that I am able to do this. I try to think of ways that I can prove it, and this usually involves a video camera taping myself in action, so to speak.

The details of the most recent dream are already sketchy, but I think I got a good tape of myself flying inside a big building, and was very happy and vindicated that people could now see clearly that I can do this. It was a very good feeling. Then I woke up and felt rather disappointed. I have been having this dream for some years now.

I have always had flying dreams and they have always been nice．　However，I find this variation sort of funny/strange, hence this post. Nevertheless, I promise not to make dream reports a regular feature here. 　　

Tracee gets black

The Age's most easily ridiculed writer would currently have to be Tracee Hutchison. Her article about visiting some blackfellas who set up in Melbourne for the Commonwealth games is a good example:

Have you got any blackfella in you? The man asking the question is in the process of smoking me. It seems a strange question to ask a fair-skinned, pale-eyed, blonde woman. I don't think so.

Just sounds like sale assistant talk to me. Never hurts to butter up the customer.

And for some reason, the Fire Man thinks I've got some kind of blackfella spirit inside me. I feel humbled that this healing man might think so.

Not sure why this should be humbling. Is it because there is something nicer about having that touch of primative purity in your blood?

Part of me wishes there were more whitefellas here feeling what I am feeling and the other part is savouring what I know is an extraordinary moment. It is a moment about trust. A moment that says we mean no harm to each other. A moment that tells me about our black history in the most profound way. And it is so understated it is almost overwhelming.

Yes, I always like it when something becomes so understated it circles back on itself and becomes overwhelming.

I find an older man at the sit-down fire and he wants to know my business. I tell him I've come to sit down. We talk for a while and it emerges that I do a radio show and a bit of writing. I thought so, he says. How can we get our message across?

How did he know she was a broadcaster? More of that ancient aboriginal mystical foreknowledge, or does he just own a radio?　（ＯＫ，　ｓｈｅ　ｍａｙ　ｎｏｔ　ｈａｖｅ　ｍｅａｎｔ　ｔｈａｔ　ｔｏ　ｓｏｕｎｄ　ｍｙｓｔｉｃａｌ，　ｂｕｔ　ｓｈｅ　ｌｅａｖｅｓ　ｔｈａｔ　ｉｎｔｅｒｐｒｅｔａｔｉｏｎ　ｏｐｅｎ．）

The smell of gum leaves is still in my clothes as I leave 3CR and I'm wondering if that black spirit the Fire Man talked of is something we all might have more of if we took a little time to sit down for a while.

Ｈｏｗ　ｖｅｒｙ，　ｖｅｒｙ　ｔｗｅｅ，　Ｔｒａｃｅｅ．

Ｔｈｅ Ｄｏｍｉｎｉｏｎ ｏｎ Ｈｏｌｉｄａｙ

Ｗａｒｎｉｎｇ　ｗａｓ　ｉｎｔｅｎｄｅｄ　ｔｏ　ｂｅ　ｇｉｖｅｎ　ｌａｓｔ　ｗｅｅｋ，　ｂｕｔ　ｔｉｍｅ　ｗａｓ　ｓｈｏｒｔ．

Ｏｐｉｎｉｏｎ　Ｄｏｍｉｎｉｏｎ　ｉｓ　ｃｕｒｒｅｎｔｌｙ　ｃｏｍｉｎｇ　ｔｏ　ｙｏｕ 　ｖｉａ　Ｊａｐａｎ．　Ｈｏｗ　ｏｆｔｅｎ　ｐｏｓｔｓ　ｗｉｌｌ　ａｐｐｅａｒ　ｉｓ　ｎｏｔ　ｃｌｅａｒ．　　Ｔｈｅｒｅ　ｉｓ　ｔｈｅ　ａｄｄｅｄ　ｃｏｍｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎ　ｏｆ　ｕｓｉｎｇ　ａ　Ｊａｐａｎ　Windows computer．　　It　ｋｅｅｐｓ　ｔｒｙｉｎｇ　ｔｏ　ｃｈａｎｇｅ　ｔｈｉｎｇｓ　ｉｎｔｏ　Ｊａｐａｎｅｓｅ，ａｎｄ　ｄｏｉｎｇ　ｆｕｎｎｙ　ｔｈｉｎｇｓ　ｔｏ　ｆｏｎｔｓ　ｅｔｃ．　　Ｓｏ　ｉｆ　ｔｈｅ　ｆｏｒｍａｔｔｉｎｇ　ｉｓ　ｗｏｎｋｙ，　Ｉ　ａｐｏｌｏｇｉｓｅ　ｉｎ　ａｄｖａｎｃｅ．

Ｏｎｅ　ｔｈｉｎｇ　Ｉ　ａｍ　ｕｓｉｎｇ　ｔｈａｔ　ｓｅｅｍｓ　ｔｏ　ｗｏｒｋ　ｗｅｌｌ　ｉｓ　Ｐｏｒｔａｂｌｅ　Ｆiｒｅｆｏｘ，　ａ　ｖｅｒｓｉｏｎ　ｗｈｉｃｈ　ｆｉｔｓ　ｏｎ　ｔｈｅ　ｓｍａｌｌｅｓｔ　ＵＳＢ　ｋｅｙ　ａｎｄ　ｒｕｎｓ　ｆｒｏｍ　ｔｈａｔ　ｄｅｖｉｃｅ　（ｒａｔｈｅｒ　ｔｈａｎ　ｄｏｉｎｇ　ｔｈｅ　ｒａｔｈｅｒ　ｉｍｐｏｌｉｔｅ　ａｃｔ　ｏｆ　ｄｏｗｎｌｏａｄｉｎｇ　Ｆiｒｅｆｏｘ　ｏｎ　ｓｏｍｅｏｎｅ　eｌｓｅ’ｓ　ｈａｒｄ　ｄｒｉｖｅ．）　　Ｉ　ｒｅａｌｌｙ　ｈａｔｅ　ｈａｖｉｎｇ　ｔｏ　ｕｓｅ　ＩＥ　ａｆｔｅｒ　Ｆｉｒｅｆｏｘ，　and　Ｉ　ａｌｓｏ　ｇｅｔ　ｔｏ　ｒｕｎ　Ｆｉｒｅｆｏｘ　ｉｎ　ｅｎｇｌｉｓｈ，ｗｈｉｃｈ　ａｌｗａｙｓ　ｈｅｌｐｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｌａｎｇｕａｇｅ　ｃｈａｌｌｅｎｇｅｄ　ｌｉｋｅ　ｍｅ．

Ｉ　ｓｅｅ　ｔｈａｔ　Ｔｉｍ　Ｂｌａｉｒ　ｈａｓ　ａｌｓｏ　ｈａｄ　ａ　ｌｏｗ　Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ　ｐｒｅｓｅｎｃｅ　ｆｏｒ　ｔｈｅ　ｌａｓｔ　ｆｅｗ　ｄａｙｓ．　　Ｉ　ａｍ　ｓｕｒｅ　ｔｈｅｒｅ　ｍｕｓｔ　ｂｅ　ａ　ｃｏｎｓｐｉｒａｃｙ　ｔｈｅｏｒｙ　ｉｎ　ｔｈｅｒｅ　ｓｏｍｅｗｈｅｒｅ．　　

Films from graphic novels/comics

The Australian: Return of people power [March 29, 2006]

You know a film has touched a sensitive nerve when a writer for the Guardian wonders whether sedition laws are appropriately used against it. The story in the Australian (above) gives some background to the film.

The Guardian's film reviewer didn't like it either:

Yet another graphic novel has been bulldozed on to the screen, strutting its stuff for an assumed army of uncritical geeks - a fanbase product from which the fanbase has been amputated. This film manages to be, at all times, weird and bizarre and baffling, but in a completely boring way. Watching it is like having the oxygen supply to your brain slowly starved over more than two hours.

Yet it has made some money in America and at Rotten Tomatoes scored a relatively high approval rating. Seems Americans are not so sensitive about movies involving bombs in the Underground. Just as long as it is not their subway.

Again, I will annoy people by criticising something I haven't seen. I predict, based on the simple fact that it is a movie that is based on a graphic novel, that it will be crap.

Hollywood really, really, has to use better material for its movies than this. Graphic novel material means a high probability that the movie will have good production design, and unrealistic or unconvincing characters.

Comic based movies were OK for a while, I suppose. But it was never a genre that had much depth. They can have a silly charm. But there have been so many dud movies based on Marvel comic heros who no adult has heard of, don't the creative types in Hollywood want to finally leave them alone? How do the writers "pitch" their material convincingly?

By the way, I like animation quite a lot, and this rant does not indicate a simple prejudice against material designed for a younger audience. I understand the appeal of a graphic novel, even though I don't read them. But please stop with the movies based on this kind of stuff.

Gerard Henderson on sedition

Knowing the enemy makes leaders friends - Opinion - smh.com.au

Yesterday's column by GH (above) notes that the Law Reform Commission is looking at the commonwealth sedition laws. Henderson notes:

On March 20 the commission published an issues paper titled Review of Sedition Laws. The issues paper seeks community consultation and the final chapter of the document contains a list of questions to which the authors of the report would like responses. Weisbrot and his colleagues make it clear they have not reached any "definitive conclusions" about their ultimate findings and recommendations.

Even so, the paper indicates that - at this stage, at least - the authors do not share the hyperbolic concern ignited by some of the critics of the federal and state governments when this legislation was canvassed late last year. For example, the paper refers to a "misunderstanding" of the construction of criminal responsibility evident in submissions to the Senate committee and comments that legal distinctions can be difficult "for non-experts and sometimes even for experts".

On a number of key issues the Law Reform Commission gives support to the case presented by the Attorney-General's Department to the Senate committee.

Seems consistent with what I had been saying earlier about the nature of the criticism about the laws.

A funny thing happened on the way to the verdict

Moussaoui destroys his own defence - World - theage.com.au

From the above:

The prosecution is seeking the death penalty on the basis that Moussaoui contributed to the deaths of about 3,000 people on September 11 because he did not tell authorities about the planned hijackings.

"The reason you told lies was so you could allow the operation to go forward," prosecutor Robert Spencer demanded of Moussaoui.

"That is correct," Moussaoui replied. ....

Many analysts have said this week could prove decisive for Moussaoui.

They have also expressed fears that testimony from the unpredictable Moussaoui could undo sterling work by defence lawyers who have picked deep holes in the prosecution case for their client's execution.

The sterling work is about as undone as it could possibly be. No "if the glove doesn't fit you must acquit" style slogan is going to work this time.

Child free Europe

BBC NEWS | Europe | The EU's baby blues

The BBC site above fills in some of the gaps in understanding the various reasons behind Europe's dire birth rate, a topic mentioned here quite a few times recently.

The page about Italy's low rate has some surprises:

Laura Callura, 38, who lives in Rome says she is typical of many Italian women.

"I became a mother at 36 and that's not unusual here," she says. "A lot of my friends had their first child between the ages of 33 and 38.

"Here in Italy we start life much later than people in northern Europe. University courses take longer to finish and it's harder for young people to get into the job market.

"I started my first job when I was 25 - but that is quite unusual. Most Italians don't start their career until their late 20s."

Fishy porker

Britain, UK news from The Times and The Sunday Times - Times Online

From the above story:

The piglets have been enhanced with a gene from a nematode worm to give their meat up to five times the normal level of omega 3 fatty acids.

Note the use of the word "enhanced" there.

The pigs — three of which were named Salmon, Tuna and Trout after fish high in omega 3 fats — are the first cloned livestock that can make the beneficial compounds. The success, by a research team in the US, paves the way for a new era of animal breeding, in which animals are genetically engineered to make their meat healthier.

Note the reference to the cute-ish names. I think this journalist is maybe a little too comfortable with the idea of genetically modified animals.

While I suspect it is partly irrational, I am not comfortable about this type of genetic engineering, especially if it is only about making food "healthier" for the overfed West (or East, in the case of pork) rather than doing something really useful like helping make basic food more readily available for struggling countries.

Just eat less of the fat when you have pork, that's all you need to have healthier pork consumption.

If volunteering for drug trials isn't fun enough for you...

Guardian Unlimited Business | | Panicky scramble to evacuate A380 'a great success'

Interesting story above about the somewhat dangerous tests that aircraft manufacturers need to go through to show a new airliner can be evacuated quickly enough:

In a German airport hangar yesterday, 873 volunteers scrambled down rubber emergency slides from one of Airbus's new A380 superjumbos in only 80 seconds....

But:

The target was achieved at some cost. One volunteer aged over 50 suffered a broken leg; another 32 sustained minor injuries including friction burns and bruises....

Still, compared to previous tests for other aircraft, just one broken leg looks good:

Yesterday's apparent success will be a relief to Airbus as evacuation exercises have a hazardous history. In a 1991 test of a McDonnell Douglas MD-11 in California, evacuation of 421 people took 132 seconds and resulted in 28 injuries.

In a re-run, a 60-year-old woman fell down a slide, broke her neck and was left paralysed for life.

More dust is what we need

Brighter sun adds to fears of climate change - Sunday Times - Times Online

This report seems very significant:

Wild said: “Sunshine levels had been decreasing by 2% a decade between 1960 and 1980 — a total decline of about 6%. Now they are going up again. Perhaps this is why our Swiss glaciers are melting.”

A 6% increase in the amount of solar radiation reaching earth would have a powerful impact on climate, especially when added to the warming effect of greenhouse gases which have already raised global temperatures by about 0.6C. Researchers predict an additional rise of at least 1.5C by 2050.

Such rises could be disastrous for agriculture, wildlife and human settlements in many regions, especially the tropics. But scientists warn they may have to revise these calculations sharply upwards if the impact of “global brightening” has to be factored

Another Australian win

Australians top global ecstasy users. 27/03/2006. ABC News Online

Its white, white, white for Australia.

Global warming and ocean levels

news @ nature.com-Warnings rise over rising seas-Fresh predictions about climate change prompt news@nature.com to ask what we know about the future of our oceans.

As I have previously posted on the current relatively slow rate of sea level rises, it's only fair that I post about this new study indicating that (on worst estimates) the sea level rise could indeed be very dramatic within a hundred years.

These new estimates are so high above those previously indicated by the IPCC that I expect there may be some legitimate criticism of the studies to come soon. I also have doubts that it matches entirely with other possibilities recently mooted.

Meanwhile, I have been meaning to get some good maps to see where the beach may be in 100 years time, and consider buying land there.

UPDATE: Real Climate's take on the story is very important as a counterpoint to the way this story has been reported in the media. (For those who don't know, Real Climate is in no way a global warming sceptic site. Quite the opposite.)

What does all this news mean in practice? Reading the editorials in Science, and quotations from various researchers in newspaper articles, one might be under the impression that we should now expect "catastrophic sea-level rise" (as Science's Richard Kerr writes). Of course, what is catastrophic to the eye of a geologist may be an event taking thousands of years. In the Otto-Bliesner et al. simulations, it takes 2000-3000 years for Greenland to melt back to its LIG minimum size. And while we don't advocate sticking with the typical politician's time frame of 4 or 5 years, the new results do not require us to revise projections of sea level rise over the next century or so. This is because even with Arctic temperature continuing to rise rapidly, there will still be significant delay before the process of ice sheet melting and thinning is complete. There is uncertainty in this delay time, but this is already taken into account in IPCC uncertainty estimates. It is also important to remember that the data showing accelerating mass loss in Antarctica and rapid glacier flow in Greenland only reflect a very few years of measurements -- the GRACE satellite has only been in operation since 2002, so it provides only a snapshot of Antarctic mass changes. We don't really know whether these observations reflect the long term trend.

So, no need for me to retract my previous posts about there being no need (for the next few decades at least) to talk about Tuvalu sinking beneath the seas. You would never guess that from the general media, but I think Science magazine itself is rather to blame in this case.

Ouch...

news @ nature.com - Stem cells found in adult mouse testes -Procedure could yield an ethically sound source of stem cells.

From the above story in Nature:

Researchers in Germany have identified a potential source of reprogrammable cells in adults that could be used for regenerative therapy. The cells would be taken directly from the testis and cultured....

....it should be possible to produce similar results [to those with mice] with samples taken from human testicles through a biopsy...

Howard's popularity

The Australian: Howard love means never saying farewell [March 25, 2006]

Matt Price's piece in this Weekend's Australian notes the PM's apparent (and somewhat puzzling) popularity at the Commonweath Games. Here's how he is being received:

Last weekend I attended the swimming where, on the announcement of the PM presenting the medals, the spontaneous roar almost matched the reception for Leisel Jones.

A friend of mine has been working at the gymnastics, where the PM made a midweek evening appearance.

"The crowd went off," he told me. "At the end of the session, Howard stuck around to sign autographs and pose for photos and he was still there half an hour later when I left. There were all kinds of people queuing up to meet him. Just incredible, I couldn't believe it."

While covering the men's and women's 20km walk events - quite possibly the stupidest assignment in the known universe - the Howards were scheduled to greet competitors at the end. But when Jane Saville crossed the line, only Janette Howard was able to attend; the PM was held up organising the Cyclone Larry relief operation. While milling around the finish line, Janette Howard was mobbed by punters and volunteers; truly, I'm not making this up.

The rest of the article is about how no one quite understands why. It must drive Tim Dunlop mad. (He's been posting tirelessly on the Wheat Board scandal.)

The friendly reception may account for this too:

MELBOURNE outdoes Sydney when it comes to hosting large events such as the Commonwealth Games, the Prime Minister said, praising the friendliness of its residents and the sense of community it has created for visitors.

"[Melbourne] does these things better than any other city because there's a sense of community cohesion," John Howard told Melbourne radio yesterday.

As for how a cheerful reception for Howard makes Peter Costello feel, have a look at the Clark & Dawe bit from Thursday's 7.30 Report (seems only a transcript is up at the moment). I like this part:

INTERVIEWER: What are you actually doing there these days?

PETER COSTELLO: I'm the Federal Treasurer, Bryan. I'm running the Treasury, yes.

INTERVIEWER: Oh, really, the same job?

PETER COSTELLO: The same job, exactly, yes.

INTERVIEWER: You're obviously still enjoying it?

PETER COSTELLO: I love it, Bryan. I'll be bringing down my 211th Budget this year, so getting the hang of it nicely, you'd have to say.

Paris in Spring

International News Article | Reuters.com

It's funny how Australia and France take industrial relations reform differently, isn't it. Of course, our unions might have learnt something from the PR debacle of the storming of Parliament House in Howard's first term.