Monday, July 03, 2006

Jellyfish will save the planet!

ScienceDaily: Jellyfish-like Creatures May Play Major Role In Fate Of Carbon Dioxide In The Ocean

Previously this blog covered the importance of krill poo as a CO2 sink. Now (see the above link) it's jellyfish poo too:

Transparent jellyfish-like creatures known as salps, considered by many a low member in the ocean food web, may be more important to the fate of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the ocean than previously thought.

In the May issue of Deep Sea Research, scientists report that salps, about the size of a human thumb, swarming by the billions in “hot spots” may be transporting tons of carbon per day from the ocean surface to the deep sea and keep it from re-entering the atmosphere. Salps are semi-transparent, barrel-shaped marine animals that move through the water by drawing water in the front end and propelling it out the rear in a sort of jet propulsion. The water passes over a mucus membrane that vacuums it clean of all edible material....

“Salps swim, feed, and produce waste continuously,” Madin said. “They take in small packages of carbon and make them into big packages that sink fast.”

In previous work, Madin and WHOI biologist Richard Harbison found that salp fecal pellets sink as much as 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) a day. The scientists also showed that when salps die, their bodies also sink fast—up to 475 meters (1,575 feet) a day, faster than most pellets. If salps are really a dead-end in the food web and remain uneaten on the way down, they could send even more carbon to the deep.

Who else can readers trust to keep them up to date on the developing science of marine poo?

Sunday, July 02, 2006

Death by asteroid later this century?

Friday 13th asteroid a close call - National - smh.com.au

Most readers have probably heard of the asteroid that is due to zip past earth tomorrow, fortunately at a safe distance. However, as the short story above notes:

But astronomers fear Earth could be in very real danger on Friday, April 13, 2029, when another 400-metre-wide asteroid, called Apophis, is predicted to pass at a distance of just 35,000 kilometres.

"If an asteroid [that big] hit Earth it could destroy an area half the size of NSW," Dr Nick Lomb of Sydney Observatory said.

Apart from direct destruction, the effect on the climate would presumably be enormous for some years.

Wikipedia has a pretty detailed entry about Apophis:

As of February 2005 it is predicted that the asteroid will pass just below the altitude of geosynchronous satellites, which are at 35,786 km (22,300 mi).

Now that is close. But it could get worse:

A pass on April 13, 2036 still carries some risk.

Apophis remains at level one on the Torino scale because of a very low but non-zero probability of impact in 2036. However, the close approach in 2029 will substantially alter the object's orbit, making predictions uncertain without more data. "If we get radar ranging in 2013 [the next good opportunity], we should be able to predict the location of 2004 MN4 out to at least 2070." said Jon Giorgini of JPL [3].

So I guess we have some years notice. What worries me is if the close visit in 2029 causes enough of a change in orbit for it to hit in 2036, that is only 7 years to do something about it.

And if it hits Earth, how much energy will it release?:

NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it impacted Earth as the equivalent of 1480 megatons of TNT (114,000 times the energy from the nuclear bomb Little Boy, dropped by the United States on Hiroshima, Japan). A more refined later NASA estimate was 880 megatons, which is still around 65,500 times the energy of the bomb mentioned above. The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 10-20 megaton range. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

So about 40 times bigger than Tunguska, which according to Wikipedia, caused damage over an area of 2,150 square kilometers.

Start building your kid's asteroid shelters now. I'm sure a good one takes a lot of time.

Bjorn Lomborg on priorities

The Observer | Comment | Climate change can wait. World health can't

Nothing particularly new in Bjorn's article above (talking mainly of the "Copenhagen Consensus") but he is always interesting to read.

I note that the Wikipedia entry on the Copenhagen Consensus quotes criticisms of it by bearded blogger economist John Quiggan.

On Islam in Leeds

Focus: Undercover on planet Beeston - Sunday Times - Times Online

This is an interesting article by a British Muslim journalist who went "undercover" in Leeds for 6 weeks to get a feeling for the
Islamic community there.

The journalist does not try very hard to make it clear how widespread the more radical opinions are held, but it is disturbing enough.

Saturday, July 01, 2006

Saturday's Aussie newspapers

It'll take more than a fraction of fiction to overcome way too many chords

Richard Glover's column today (above) sticks to his family and life, with his usual witty approach on those topics.

Mike Carlton recounts this story about what he had to do once to get a pay rise:

It was always bare knuckle at the Packer fun factory. I once had to inch my way along an exterior wall of the main building, three storeys from the ground like a human fly, to dive through Sam Chisholm's office window to demand a pay rise. (He gave it to me, laughing like a drain, the wicked old bastard).

He doesn't seem to be joking. Some detail as to why he had to do this would be worthwhile.

Over at The Australian, the start of the lead story ("HUNDREDS of thousands of middle-income families are shouldering a heavier tax burden today than they were 10 years ago, despite the Howard Government's latest tax cuts") turns out just to be following Labor spin on some rather confusing financial analysis, a lot of which (further down in the report) reads quite favourably for the government.

And some interesting work for historians coming up:

POPE Benedict has decided to open all Vatican archives from 1922 to 1939, giving new insight into what the Catholic Church knew and did as Europe saw the rise of Nazism in Germany and the Spanish Civil War.

At The Age, they give a column to a euthanasia advocate trying to drum up support for legislative change in Victoria. Then, in fine print at the bottom of the web version of the article, it says:

For assistance or information visit www.beyondblue.org.au, call Suicide Helpline Victoria on 1300 651 251 or Lifeline on 131 114.

Isn't that sort of like saying "if you believe this article, please call these organisations so you can be talked out of it."

How helpful...

Cleric Vows Iran Will Never Talk With U.S. on Nuclear Program - New York Times

From the above:

...European leaders had pressed for years for the United States to join earlier rounds of talks with Iran, and when the Bush administration decided in late May to offer to join any new discussions, the move was seen as a major concession and a prime inducement for Tehran.

On Tuesday, however, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said he saw "no use" in talking with the United States.

And today, Mr. Khatami went further, declaring that "with regards to our nuclear case, we have nothing to do with the U.S. and principally, our officials will have no talks with the U.S.," according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.

The rest of the story is worth reading too. It's a difficult world.

Thursday, June 29, 2006

Don't bet on Hillary Clinton

Marty Kaplan: Hillary's Daou Jones - Yahoo! News

The story above notes that Hillary has engaged Peter Daou to help her campaign.

This is a bad sign for Hillary. As I noted earlier this year, Daou has no grip on reality when it comes to assessing what the "media bias" is. Maybe he makes the common mistake of calling it a "right wing bias" when all he really means is "to the right of me".

If Hillary hopes to regain Lefty "street cred" by hiring someone well to the Left of her, I can't see it working. The Daily Kos crowd are just not that open to rational argument anyway.

UPDATE:

Here are some quotes from Daou's Huffington Post gig (click the asterisk for the link):

* We hear a lot about "angry" bloggers, but very little about the disturbingly lobotomized demeanor of certain administration officials (and ex-officials) -- Cheney, Powell, Gonzales, and Rice come to mind. There's something exceedingly peculiar about their ultracalm delivery and Mona Lisa-like permasmirk, especially when discussing issues like the Iraq war, a bloodbath they helped instigate...

* Bush's clownish banter with reporters - which is on constant display during press conferences - stands in such stark contrast to his administration's destructive policies and to the gravity of the bloodbath in Iraq that it is deeply unsettling to watch. This may be impolitic, but wouldn't refraining from frat-style horseplay be appropriate for this man? Or at the least, can't reporters suppress their raucous laughter every time he blurts out another jibe... the way they did when Colbert put them in their place?

* Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and their ilk have made an industry out of liberal-bashing. Coulter fits in perfectly with those hate-traffickers. And contrary to the false Michael Moore comparisons made by Leno and others, there is no progressive counterpart to these people on the national stage.

See what I mean? That last line floors me. No grip on reality at all, I say, and a pretty clear deep and personal loathing of Bush and all of his administration. Regardless of how well "connected" he is in blogging, having a guy with such a lack of personal judgement on your team is not a good idea.

Matt Price on the union rallies

Talkback callers blitz the Bomber | Matt Price | The Australian

I liked this line:

More than 80,000 people turned out in Melbourne, which is mightily impressive until you remember it's Melbourne, where 80,000 would turn out to see Jana Pittman recite blank verse.

My personal assessment: the numbers were not enough for Labor to consider it a resounding success. It is also likely that repeating such rallies would backfire. The Newspoll CE Sol Lebovic on Radio National yesterday put it all in perspective. Unfortunately, no transcript is up, but you can hear it here. Essentially, the story was that yes, voters are rating IR as a bigger issue than they did before, but it is still far from the top of the list of their concerns.

Optimism on the energy front?

Larry Kudlow on Oil Prices and the Free Market on NRO Financial

Scorpionman danger

ScienceDaily: Radioactive Scorpion Venom For Fighting Cancer

Obviously prepared to ignore the scientific dangers of radioactive insect venom (well known to all readers/viewers of Spiderman), these researchers actually may be onto something good.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

No responsibility taken

I just watched ABC's Lateline, with a pathetic interview performance by a member of the Palestinian government (sorry, transcript is not yet available for me to check the name) about the current Gaza crisis.

The transcript should be up at this site tomorrow. He would not call for the release of the hostage soldier, and made out as if the Israelis just sit there taking pot shots at anyone and everyone in Gaza for no reason at all. He mentioned "restraint" on the Palestinian side several times.

Interviewer Tony Jones did not really do much to challenge the deceptive claims, and in particular did not mention the continual rain of missiles from Gaza into Sderot, including some since they took young CPL Shalit. Jones did try to get him to be clear as to what the Palistinian government's position was, and did succeed to some extent in cutting short the rambling.

Frankly, with government members taking such a weak position, the Palestinians cannot expect to receive more than lukewarm support even from their usual sympathisers in the West.

UPDATE: Yes, the transcript is up at the ABC Lateline link above. Some extracts:

....the Israeli Minister was saying that the Israelis have shown lots of restraint in the past few days. I'm not sure that's correct because the Palestinians are the ones who have been showing the most, the utmost restraint in the past one-and-a-half years. The Palestinians have committed themselves to a calming and they have strictly abided by their position and during this one-and-a-half years there was no military action from the Palestinian side. Basically, the military action was all the time before the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and after it. The military action was always directed to Palestinian civilians, all the time killing children, women, elders, all the time only from the Palestinian side....


This soldier, first he's a military man. He's a soldier. He's sitting in his tank on the border of the Gaza Strip. He's shelling the children of the Gaza Strip every day, all the time for a one-and-a-half years or more and now when one group, one small group of the Palestinians, have tried to do something to avoid this continuous shelling and continuous massacre in the Gaza Strip, now the whole world is very touchy about a thing like that....


TONY JONES: I'm sorry. You now have the Israeli Army camped outside the city of Rafah. They've invaded Gaza and they want this man back. They clearly are not going to leave until they get him back. Do you believe without conditions the kidnappers should give him back?



DR ABDUL RAHMAN ZAIDAN: I'm not going to interfere in this. I've not interfered as a Government.

Building lifeboats

TCS Daily - The Ultimate Lifeboat

James Pinkerton does a good job in explaining why space colonization is a good and important goal, as a lifeboat for humanity.

Funny how this idea seemingly got lost from any mainstream airing for something like three decades!

Of course, science fiction readers (at least those who liked it before the genre went mostly interior and pessimistic with cyberpunk, the rise of fantasy, and the dubious quality of neverending reincarnations of Star Trek and Star Wars) always understood that this was the point of having an active space program, but they just weren't able to say it out loud without fear of ridicule.

The ridicule is indeed still there, and, as Zoe Brain noted, a surprisingly large amount of it can now come from young scientist types. Shame on them.

Anyway, good to have it out in the open again, and NASA actually going back to a place where there might be somewhere you can live without having to take even your own water. (The Moon.)

Wrong

Saddam death would worsen Iraq violence: lawyer|Reuters.com

The lawyer in question is, however, nutty Ramsey Clarke. Just as a reminder, remember this, and Hitchen's article about him here. The best part of Hitchen's column is this:

He [Clarke] has now twice said in public that, given the war with the Shiite republic of Iran, Saddam was entitled to take stern measures. “He had this huge war going on, and you have to act firmly when you have an assassination attempt,” he told the BBC.

To this he calmly added that he himself had more than once been shoved aside by Secret Service agents eager to defend the president of the United States (and of course one remembers the mass arrests, beatings and executions that followed the assassination attempts on presidents Ford and Reagan).

The worst thing from the Reuters story is this:

On Tuesday a prosecutor said a separate trial is to begin in August in which Saddam would face genocide charges in the killings of tens of thousands of Iraqs' Kurds in 1988 in a military operation to force them from their villages.

Let's just hope that they don't want to spend years delaying punishment just to secure more and more death penalty sentences.

Calls for an engineering solution

How to Cool a Planet (Maybe) - New York Times

How timely. A short but interesting article on the "big" engineering ideas to counter global warming.

Hmm. No one mentions my idea of trying to create a volcanic eruption with H bombs on some island no one wants. (The best feature of my plan is that I can't think of a more perfect idea to upset Greenies.)

Bye bye tropical glaciers

ScienceDaily: First Compilation Of Tropical Ice Cores Shows Abrupt Global Climate Shifts

A not very encouraging study about what core drilling in tropical glaciers tells us about climate change.

Further reason for Kyoto scepticism

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Germany to spark 'climate crisis'

From the above report:

The German government is about to trigger a new crisis in Europe's flagship climate policy, the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

BBC News understands the German cabinet is likely to agree a deal that will reduce carbon emissions from industry by only 0.6% between 2004 and 2012.

The decision is likely to influence other EU countries, including the UK, which still have to set their own caps.

Environmental groups describe the target as "pathetic and shameful"....

Climate analysts now fear a meltdown of EU climate leadership.

"I have been a big supporter of the EU ETS, but hearing the German news I feel more depressed than I ever have done about our ability to tackle climate change," said Professor Michael Grubb of the UK Carbon Trust, set up by the British government to help create a low-carbon economy.

"I really believed that Europe would lead the way through the EU ETS but now I wonder whether this will ever happen."

The news will offer comfort to US climate sceptics who predicted that Europe would talk big on climate change but fail to impose large carbon cuts on its own industries.

UPDATE: this post scored a link from Pajamas Media, but it said that my post "commented on" this report. In fact, this was one of my lazy posts, and the whole of it was just extracts from parts of the BBC report. (I didn't make it perfectly clear to newcomers that that was what I had done, but regular readers should know that I always highlight quotes in blue.) After I saw the PM link, I made it clearer at the top of the post that it was only an extract.

Sorry for any confusion. Just want to make sure people understood the words were not my own.

Anyway, newcomers should also note my other recent (lazy) post about reasons to be sceptical about Kyoto.

Howard, Asia and books

Rowan Callick: A respected statesman in Asia | Opinion | The Australian

Today's piece in The Australian notes that Howard has established a strong relationship with China, and the dire predictions about how the opposite would happen:

Whole books were commissioned by excitable publishers on the theme - now too odd even to fill remainder trays - that we, Lee Kuan Yew's "poor white trash of Asia", were about to fall further into disrepute and doom on account of our leader's lack of empathy with Asians. His true sin, of course, was that he was not really "one of us", the cognoscenti.

Former diplomat Tony Kevin wrote in The Howard Years (2004): "It's a fact that Australia has lost most of its former sensitivity in its dealings with diplomatic associations of countries of the Asia-Pacific region." Another former diplomat, Alison Broinowski, wrote in Howard's War (2003): "We are now less in tune with our nearest neighbours than we have been since the 1970s."

Former prime minister Paul Keating said in 2000: "Australia's relevance to Asia, and our position and influence in Asia, has diminished enormously in John Howard's time."

Predictably, the criticism has been turned on its head, and Howard is being lambasted from the universities and elsewhere as an appeaser of Asian tyrants in Indonesia and China. He should be acting, they say, in a more Australian way and opposing the traducers of human rights in Papua and Tibet.

How true.

Just generally on the book trade, I am often surprised that publishers do commission books on political topics where the validity of the views expressed will soon be established within a short time of publication. Why do publishers take such gambles? For example, the flurry of books about Latham. The one by Micheal Duffy about Latham and Abbott was sort of a double whammy of dubious relevance, as Abbott's increasingly noticed religious views surely mean he looks less and less likely as a possible leader of the Liberals.

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Not very likely

Saddam clings to hope US will enlist his aid: lawyer - Yahoo! News

Saddam Hussein is certain his trial for crimes against humanity will result in the death penalty, but clings to the hope that Washington will use the sentence as leverage to enlist his aid to tamp down the insurgency in Iraq, the New York Times reported on Sunday.

If Saddam believes this, surely some of the insurgents believe it too.

Not smart

Four wounded as Kassam hits Sderot | Jerusalem Post

From the story above:

Even as IDF forces were massing in large numbers on Gaza's border for a possible ground incursion to rescue kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit, three Kassam rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel Monday evening...

The rocket fire comes as Islamic Jihad claimed to have developed a new longer-range rocket to be used against Israeli targets, Channel 1 reported. The groups said the new "Quds 4" projectile has a range of 20 kilometers, three times longer then the crude Kassam rockets.

On Sunday, Fatah announced that they had biological and chemical weapons capabilities. They said that they would not hesitate to use unconventional warheads on missiles.

That Israel keeps getting taunted by a random rain of missiles, with promises of more to come, causes some readers of the Jerusalem Post to react rather strongly:

Israel showed goodwill and restraint while Kassams were falling on Sderot and soldiers paid the ultimate sacrifice. It is enough! Cut off all gas, electricity, water and other services to Gaza and seal them off from the civilised world hermetically. Let them suffer and suffer until they learn the lesson that terror brings suffering. The fait of Israel is more relevant than the biased world opinion.

And this:

I ask my fellow Jews when are you going to wake up. The only compassionate thing to do is to give the terrorists 24 hours to return the soldier unharmed, if they don't blow up every single person living in Gaza. Unfortunatley, this is the only language that these terrorists understand. If you do not kill them and their children, they and their children will kill you. When are the smartest-stupidest people on earth going to wake up to the facts.?

It does indeed seem that some major confrontational crisis over Gaza is on its way.

I was the Walrus

adn.com | alaska : Walruses lured to their deaths

This story reminds me of Douglas Adams' falling whale. Turns out some walruses in Alaska have a similar experience:

Federal wildlife biologists have erected a 250-foot-long fence to stop walruses from accidentally plummeting off cliffs to their death on a Bristol Bay beach....

No one is sure why the Cape Peirce walruses fall.

Abraham said the shellfish-loving animals have a strong sense of smell that may lead them over the seaside cliff. They don't see well, which may not help, he added.

"(They) follow their nose -- that's my theory," he said.

It's not suicide, said MacDonald, who's watched videotapes of the falling walruses recorded during the 1990s.

Once the first go over, others follow, many dropping headfirst in a free fall to the ground, he said.

"They land on the rocks below, crush their skull, and end of story," he said.

But others do a 180 while sliding off the top, desperately try to stop as if they've made a mistake. It doesn't work, he said.