Get out your stopwatch

The New York Times reports on a study that shows that, even amongst experienced physicians, the rate of "success" from a colonoscopy can vary enormously:

The study, of 12 highly experienced board-certified gastroenterologists in private practice, found some were 10 times better than others at finding adenomas, the polyps that can turn into cancer.

One factor distinguishing the physicians who found many adenomas from those who found few was the amount of time spent examining the colon, according to the study, in which the gastroenterologists kept track of the time for each exam and how many polyps they found.

They discovered that those who slowed down and took their time found more polyps.

How much can the time taken vary?:

Dr. Barclay added, “if our group is representative of an average group, you will see people who take 2 or 3 minutes and people who take 20 minutes” to examine a colon. Insurers pay doctors the same no matter how much time they spend. Gastroenterologists say colonoscopies can help prevent colon cancer, but warn that there is a pressing need for better quality control.

Still, the experts say, the onus remains on patients to ask for data on how proficient their doctors are.

Oh come on. Shouldn't there be just a wee bit of emphasis on telling gastroenterologists that it is clear that doing the job in 3 minutes means they are not doing it properly?

Having had this procedure myself, I was given a videotape of it afterwards. (Watching the bit of smoke as a polyp is burnt off is kind of fun.) I wonder if the 3 minute wonders in American give out videos too? If so, get out your stopwatch and check.

Controlling retired judges

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, retired High Court Judge Michael McHugh thinks some parts of the Federal anti terrorism laws could be constitutionally invalid:

He said restrictive control orders imposed on people who had not been convicted of anything appeared to be invalid because they breached the separation of powers between government and the judiciary.

Well, if that is an accurate account of his objection (newspaper reports of legal argument can be very inaccurate,) then I await the Judge's outcry over the tens of thousands of domestic violence protection orders that have been issued over the past decade. (The linked paper indicates that they were 13,000 issued annually in Queensland alone some years ago.) These frequently do not involve any prosecution or conviction of the respondent for any offence; all that is required is that the applicant have reasonable grounds to fear for his or her safety.

Middle East Mess

Three significant stories on the Middle East:

1. Palestinians continue to have trouble getting their act together, so to speak:

Gunmen loyal to the two main Palestinian factions openly fought each other in the streets of Gaza and the West Bank today after an alleged attempt on the life of the Palestinian Prime Minister last night.

Hamas officials accused members of the rival Fatah movement of trying to kill Prime Minister Ismail Haniya during a chaotic gunfight at the Rafah border crossing....

Many of the Hamas followers were on their way to a rally of an estimated 70,000 people in Gaza City, where Khalil al-Hayya, a senior Hamas figure shouted to the crowd: "What a war Mahmoud Abbas you are launching, first against God, and then against Hamas." His call was answered by a chant of "God is Greatest" and bullets fired into the air. Mr al-Hayya also called for revenge against Fatah.

Closely guarded by bodyguards, Mr Haniya then addressed the crowd. In an aggressive speech, punctuated by bursts of celebratory gunfire, he said: "We tell all those who believe in the logic of assassination that this does not scare even little children in Hamas."

"We joined this movement to become martyrs, not ministers."

How encouraging...

(Incidentally, I would be curious to know just how many Palestinians die each year from "celebratory gunfire". I would have thought that if even the government of little Puerto Rico can recognize it as a stupid practice, the Palestinians might have cottoned on by now too.)

2. Former Dutch Parliamentarian Ayaan Hirsi Ali writes a very telling piece in the International Herald Tribunal in which she explains that growing up in Saudi Arabia meant she didn't even know of the Holocaust until she got to Holland at age 24! She writes:

Western leaders today who say they are shocked by the conference of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran denying the Holocaust need to wake up to that reality. For the majority of Muslims in the world the Holocaust is not a major historical event they deny; they simply do not know because they were never informed. Worse, most of us are groomed to wish for a Holocaust of Jews.

She claims that when she showed her 21 year old half sister her history book about the Holocaust, the reaction was this:

With great conviction my half-sister cried: "It's a lie! Jews have a way of blinding people. They were not killed, gassed nor massacred. But I pray to Allah that one day all the Jews in the world will be destroyed."

3. In a typical wrong-headed reaction, a bunch of artists write to The Guardian to announce that they will respond to the Palestinian call for an "academic and cultural boycott " of Israel. I note that Brian Eno is a signatory. That'll hurt.

When I see a list of artists calling for the "radical" cultural change in the Muslim Middle East of teaching their children and young men and women:
a. about the Holocaust;
b. that Jews are not intrinsically evil, and
c. that good deeds on earth are more important than entry into Paradise by "matyrdom"
then I'll give the "cultural boycott" call against Israel some credibility.

Giants

For anyone who has never seen this 20 year (!) old video of They Might be Giants first hit song, Don't Let's Start, here it is:



For me, this is close to the perfect modern pop song, being extremely catchy and having a lyric that almost, but not entirely, makes sense. The video's silliness still gives me a high degree of pleasure that is hard to explain. My 2 kids love it too, and run around the house copying the synchronised moves from this and TMBG's other early clips, most of which are also on YouTube. (They are also on the documentary DVD "Gigantic".) My wife thinks it's a form of brainwashing, but I think she secretly likes the songs too.

Odd medical photo of the day

If you want to see an inside view of 15 cm spoon in the stomach of a woman who accidentally swallowed it while laughing (!), click here. (Stomachs seem to have a lot more folds inside them than I imagined.)

While you're at the Medical Journal of Australia, you might want to read their sort of silly Christmas offering "The hazards of watching football - Are Australians at risk?"

Steyn on France

Mark Steyn has a column that puzzles over France's foreign policy, particularly in relation to the Middle East. It has some snippets from history that I did not know about:

....it’s sobering to be reminded that the French were doing the Israelis-are-the-new-Nazis shtick within ten minutes of the end of the Second World War. Jews, wrote the consul-general Rene Neuville, in a lengthy cable from Jerusalem in 1947, are “racist through and through… quite as much as their German persecutors”. The dispatches of Pierre Landy, French consul in Haifa, rely heavily on “the Israeli Gestapo” and similar formulations. In public the political class was usually more circumspect, though not always. President de Gaulle famously raged at a press conference that the Jews were “an elite people, self-assured and domineering” with “a burning ambition for conquest”. In the ensuing controversy, M le President assured the Chief Rabbi that he’d meant it as a compliment.

A different Advent countdown

From BBC radio, this Advent countdown gives short cranky, but amusing, audio reviews of the year's movies. The one about The Da Vinci Code is good, but his most despised movie is "Little Man", which I have to say did look appalling when I saw shorts for it.

Why electric cars makes sense

This article in Scientific American addresses the point that occasionally crosses my mind: if electric cars became popular, how much of a greenhouse gas benefit would be achieved when you take into account the extra electric power generation needed? Here's some good news for a change:

...a new analysis from the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) offers more good news: existing electric power plants could fuel 84 percent of "light duty" vehicles if all 220 million cars and trucks converted to electric power overnight....

The analysis noted that the capacity of the U.S. power infrastructure is underutilized. Every evening--and during days of low demand--there is a large amount of spare capacity that could easily be tapped. By charging cars and trucks with electricity at night, American drivers could reduce the nation's dependence on foreign oil while potentially cutting power prices as well. "Since gasoline consumption accounts for 73 percent of imported oil, it is intriguing to think of the trade and national security benefits if our vehicles switched from oil to electrons," notes PNNL energy researcher Rob Pratt. "Plus, since the utilities would be selling more electricity without having to build more plants or power lines, electricity prices could go down for everyone."

The researchers specifically excluded power resources such as nuclear, hydroelectric, wind and solar as each of these already produce electricity at maximum capacity. Yet, plugging in our cars could reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 18 percent.

A commuting horror story

Talk about unexpected ways to die:

A 21-year-old woman was beheaded in front of horrified onlookers at a bus terminal in in the capital of the Caribbean island of St Vincent.

Must find something more pleasant for next post.

It's the season for Virgin Birth discussion

The Times has a lightweight piece about the importance of baths, which mentions a legal case that I had never heard about before:

For much of the 20th century it was popularly believed that a woman should never get into the bath after a male member (no pun intended) of the household. The fear was that if he had been abluting himself a little too vigorously she might be in danger of impregnation. The famous paternity case involving Lord Ampthill gave this myth widespread credence. He filed for divorce after his wife produced a son, even though the marriage had not been consummated. It was suggested that she had conceived after using a sponge in a bath they had shared.

A Google search turns up this Time Magazine article from 1976 ("Was Mother a Virgin?") about the case (which happened in the 1920's). The sponge theory doesn't get mentioned, but I assume it must have come up in court as one of the theoretical ways that a "virgin birth" can happen.

Moon doubters

Skepticism about the value of manned space exploration is never far away, and just when NASA starts to firm up a little on a lunar colony, the nay-saying doubters get into print. See this article in Slate, and here at the New York Times. Both sound like re-runs from the early 70's, when the thrill of Apollo 11 was over with pretty quickly.

In the Slate article, when it comes to the question why build a moon base:

NASA itself can't really offer an answer, though it does offer a free, downloadable "Why the Moon?" poster. According to the poster, a moon base would "enable eventual settlement" of Earth's satellite—which might happen someday, but represents an absurd waste of tax money in the current generation. (No one has any interest in settling Antarctica, which is much more amenable to life than the moon and can be reached at far less than 1 percent of the cost.)

The New York Times writes:

Mars has water, apparently, and an atmosphere that greater minds than mine contend could be transformed and thickened enough to breathe, and maybe even past or future life forms. Someday, a few dreamers say, our descendants could walk to a pool of water in the red sand, like the settlers in Ray Bradbury’s “Martian Chronicles,” look at their reflections and see Martians.

I haven't read about terraforming information for some time, but I am sure that even the most optimistic time scales for creating a breathable Martian atmosphere is in the order of hundreds or thousands of years. Even by the standards of someone (like me) who wants humanity to expand beyond earth, it's a very long term proposition.

Basically, for a long time, living on Mars is going to be like living on the Moon, with the added benefit of more water. (Assuming the moon has some somewhere.) The disadvantage is that help is a year or two away, compared to a few days for the Moon.

But my main point is that these articles do not address the obvious potential function that a Moon colony can provide, and that's a lifeboat for planet Earth. It's close, it's old, seems relatively stable, and provides a smallish target for passing asteroids. The decentralisation of information by virtue of its digital format perhaps makes its off-planet storage less important than previously, but still it is hard to say what the human and political effects of a truly global catastrophe would be. (For example, an asteroid strike large enough to darken the skies for a few years, leading to starvation and massive loss of life.) Recently, the idea of using the Moon as "gene bank" was mooted too, and maybe this is a more important reason, if you assume that digital information is unlikely to be lost completely.

I don't understand why science writers can't see that this "big picture" idea, which is familiar to all science fiction readers, is something worth taking seriously if it is within technical reach.

Modern robotics not quite there yet

You must watch this video over at Japundit if you find robot mistakes funny.

(Actually, it is sort of sad too, but the way the screen comes out as if it is a horse about to be put down is what really makes me laugh.)

About Pauline Hanson

An excellent post by Andrew Norton about the silly argument that Howard has implemented all of the Hanson agenda. Read and memorise for the next time that argument comes up at a dinner party.

Silly names

This article in the Times about how the British chose the names for their kids is pretty funny, and quite accurate for Australia too, I think:

By and large, of course, it’s wise to try to avoid making decisions that will last the rest of your life when you’re 14. One of the primary arguments against teenage pregnancy — but one that the Government has, as yet, been too scared to address — is that 13-year-old girls tend to bestow awful names. Names which commit to an implacable destiny. Indeed, Destiny is one of them. Destineee is even more one of them. It’s hard to imagine a Governor of the Bank of England called Chantelle. Not least because the headline the next day would be “Oh my God!”, and the Bank of England would have to be renamed the Bank of Blingland. ....

The main difference between chav names and ponce ones is that the working classes deploy names that reflect success in the present — Ashanti, Britney, Justin. This is because, for the working classes, there is no rose-spectacled nostalgia for the past. The further you go back in time, the more incrementally awful it was to be poor. For the working classes, there’s no time like the present — or, indeed, the future.

The middle classes, on the other hand, have no fear of the past — when, as far as they’re concerned, all food was organic and free-range, and children played in streams all day while wearing lovely smocks. To reflect this longing for a simple, earthy, “real” childhood, they give their children the names that the working classes in their grandparents’ era would have favoured: Ruby, Charlie, Mabel, Fred.

Bad car news

From the Japan Times:

A top Nissan Motor Co. executive in North America said the hybrid market remains an unprofitable proposition in the auto industry despite the interest in alternative vehicles.

"Hybrids today are not a very viable economic proposition. It's still a loss-making proposition," said Dominique Thormann, Nissan North America's senior vice president for administration and finance, on Thursday...

Hybrids currently comprise more than 1 percent of the auto market. Federal legislation approved last year provides up to $ 3,600 in tax credits to U.S. consumers who buy hybrids, but automakers are subject to a production limit of 60,000 vehicles eligible for the entire credit.

As for the US automotive industry generally, this does not sound good:

"Fifty percent of cars sold in America are sold by companies that lose money selling cars, and that's not sustainable," Thormann said.

What are they doing there?

A surprise from the Aljazeera report on the Iranian Holocaust conference. Here's a photo of some of the attendees:


The article indicates that they are anti-Zionist Orthodox Jews, who don't deny the Holocaust. What strange bedfellows they make.

Iranian Jews are not very impressed with the whole conference idea:

The conference has upset Iran's 25,000-strong Jewish community, said Moris Motamed, the sole Jewish representative in Iran's parliament.

"Denying it [the Holocaust] is a huge insult," he said. "By holding this conference, they [the government] are continuing to insult the Jewish community."

Many ordinary Iranians admitted to embarrassment about the event, which follows Iran's decision to hold a competition for cartoons about the Holocaust in October.

Seems to me the whole idea is backfiring anyway.

Penguin film cops a blast

The Independent's Jonathan Romney really, really, took a dislike to Happy Feet (which has generally received good press). The highlights of his review:

But the nadir of digital animation - absolutely the most joyless, imaginatively bankrupt spectacle it has produced - is the penguin extravaganza Happy Feet. I'd rather have spent seven days and nights on an ice floe than have watched this. This tender-hearted eco-minded musical by George Miller (yes, Mad Max George Miller) scores an own goal: you go in favourably disposed to penguins, and you come out wishing you could personally nuke every last one of the wretched creatures out of the Antarctic. Happy Feet is as hideous as its title suggests.....

Happy Feet is so mendaciously dewy-eyed about the wildlife it feigns to respect that it makes Bambi look like a Werner Herzog documentary....

But in terms of humour, or humanity, or real imagination, the film is crass, ugly, wasteful and an impasse for an art form that has, in a mere decade, transformed the way we see screen images. Is this what digital animation has come to - a multi-million-dollar screensaver?

For those who share my love of the art of aggressively negative movie reviews, this one is pretty damn good.

Sucking up to Huffington

The Observer Magazine had a story on the weekend about Arianna Huffington that went into hyperbole mode when it comes to describing the Huffington Post:

The Post is now the fifth most popular site in the world. It shapes the debate of American politics and gives Arianna real power and prestige. This year she made Time magazine's list of the 100 most important people in the world, and next year she looks likely to climb the list...

The Post has already broken major news stories, changed perceptions and challenged the old way of doing things. Arianna is a media magnate for a new age and uses her position to hammer away for liberal causes: the Iraq war, environmentalism, corporate greed.

How nauseating.

Huffington Post has always struck me as having the most lightweight and bile-filled analysis of any "serious" commentary blog, as if it were run by a whole school yard full of Maureen Dowds. I think it annoys me more than Daily Kos, for example, because the Kos crowd are kids, and can be half forgiven for some of their posing and misplaced idealism.

As for HP, if you value the opinion of has-been Hollywood stars, screenwriters and general hangers-on who want their invitations to Arianna's next cocktail party but backing up Arianna's scathing assessments of everything Bush, visit it by all means.

But don't go there if you want to see any evidence of independence of thought.

(At least for readers who are not from the USA, the Observer article fills in some details of Arianna's background, and is worth a look for that.)

Drunk pilot humour

In the news this weekend:

A DRUNKEN Australian pilot who tried to fly a packed plane to Dubai when he was seven times over the alcohol limit has been jailed in London.

John Cronly-Dillon, 51, was sentenced to four months' jail last Friday by a judge who told him he had brought an unblemished 25-year career to a stupid and ignominious end.

He was arrested after stumbling around during a routine search at Heathrow, making incoherent jokes about "not blowing up my plane" with his breath smelling strongly of drink.

Maybe video of the incident looked like this:

Random trivial thoughts for pre-Christmas rush

This is a busy time of year for me, so posting rate may be a little more intermittent than usual.

Here's some random information discovered this weekend:

1. Lego Bionicles have some of the worst assembly instructions I have ever seen. Being able to assemble one within 2 minutes should qualify the assembler for entry into Mensa.

2. To my surprise, the English dictionary that comes with Firefox 2 recognises the word "Bionicles" but only when preceded by "Lego".

3. Lego appears to have re-introduced more general, non-themed sets of blocks, which is a good thing for children's imaginations.

4. I met someone who works for Coca Cola and was told that "Coke Zero" was meant to get away from the feminine image that "Diet Coke" has by virtue of the word "diet". (It is also meant to compete with the success of Pepsi Max in terms of having a stronger flavour.)

However, I reckon if you want a name that will appeal to men as much as women, "Zero" is hardly the way to go. If you put a bunch of men in a focus group and asked them what they associate with the word "Zero", isn't it more than likely going be negative ? "Zero chance" is the first thing I reckon would come to mind for many.

Just how much money on creative types did Coke spend to come up with a dud name like that?

Pepsi Max still tastes better anyway.