Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Issues with reproductive technology

There's an interesting article at Slate about a couple of new books on the problems with assisted reproduction (IVF and other techniques).

The main current problem: the number of embryos which are often implanted has lead to a large rise in the number of multiple births, which tend to be bad for everyone (mothers, children and society.) There are also higher rates in IVF children of other odd medical conditions, and no one yet understands why.

The situation in Australia is summarised in a fairly recent Medical Journal of Australia article. It would seem that maybe only 30% of women here try a single embryo implant, and the rest go for double embryo transfer. This is despite the very significant health risks of having twins.

(The Slate article indicates that in America, some clinics may offer to implant 3 or even 4 embryos, which is pretty crazy really.)

I love technology, but have old fashioned views when it comes to reproduction. I can't quite reconcile how a country like Australia can have both an abortion rate of perhaps 80,000 or so per year, and around 5,000 births through IVF. There are clearly thousands of healthy embryos going to waste, while at the same time a relatively small proportion of women are going through expensive, painful and potentially dangerous treatment to have a child that stands a higher rate of illness than a naturally conceived one.

One final, slightly off the wall, point to make. I hope people have not forgotten about the 2001 study which indicated a very strong positive relationship between third party prayers and the success of IVF.

I had wondered why such a startling result was not the subject of follow up studies. However, it seems that the paper was pursued hard by a group associated with the Skeptical Inquirer, who pointed out the generally fraudulent activities of one of the authors. The skeptics attack is explained here. It is worth noting that it is based on guilt by association, rather than establishing how any fraud may actually have been done. (The skeptic's report seems also wrong where it indicates that the Journal of Reproductive Medicine removed the report from its website. It still seems to be there now, as shown by my link above.)

The skeptics also get a bit silly, I think, when they say that the head doctor of the study:

...was investigated by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office for Human Subject Protections, because the researchers never got informed consent from the patients in the trial. Such misconduct is a serious violation of medical ethics and federal rules that were adopted to prevent the kind of atrocities that occurred in Nazi Germany and in the United States during the infamous Tuskeegee Syphilis Study.

Oh come on. What they were studying was something that could only have positive results if successful. Unless skeptics think that there is a risk that God punishes those hopeful women who were being prayed for, this is a pretty trivial issue, isn't it?

I would like to know if anyone else is going to do a similar study, but Googling has not brought up any quick answer to that.

If it was confirmed, it would certainly indicate that, if nothing else, God seems to like babies.

A problem with Starbucks

Bryan Appleyard has an amusing post about irritating people who effectively set up office in Starbucks. (I like the punchline especially.) Can't say that I have ever witnessed this behaviour in Brisbane, but then I don't like Starbucks and rarely visit them.

As far as I can tell, most Australians think Starbucks coffee is not great. I am no great fan of the beverage, but I really like a medium size Very Vanilla Chiller from Gloria Jeans. The GJ franchise just seems a lot more relaxed and less pretentious than Starbucks, too.

Do black holes exist at all?

Could black holes be portals to other universes? - space - 27 April 2007 - New Scientist Space

I missed this last week. Seems that maybe it is hard to tell a black hole from a wormhole.

This is also relevant to the issue of micro black holes. As the article says:

And there might be a way to test the conjecture. Some physicists say that future particle accelerator experiments could produce microscopic black holes (see Atom smasher may give birth to 'Black Saturns').

Such tiny black holes would emit measurable amounts of Hawking radiation, proving that they are black holes rather than wormholes. But if Solodukhin is right, and microscopic wormholes are formed instead, no such radiation would be expected. "In that case, you would actually see if it is a black hole or a wormhole," he says.

An added benefit of wormholes is that they could resolve the so-called black hole information paradox.

Is there any safety significance to a micro wormhole being created at CERN instead of a micro black hole? I suspect not, but it would good to have someone who knows more than a blogger from Brisbane saying it.

Charming

I've complained before about the dire quality of Road to Surfdom since Tim Dunlop handed over the reigns to the likes of Ken L and Aussie Bob.

It's not that it's just anti-Howard; the name calling is offensive. Have a look at the description Aussie Bob gives to ABC newsreader Juanita Phillips in his recent comment here.

Oh yes, the Left is full of respect for women.

Dunlop himself in a post felt free to use c**t for humourous effect, and his commenters were happy to follow suit. JF Beck also had a post on his site recently showing the sophisticated level of debate that Ken L exhibits when challenged. (I might have had something to do with that...)

Anyway, my point is that it's a pathetic site that is only saved from criticism by the Left by being on the Left.

More than you ever needed to know about duck anatomy

In Ducks, War of the Sexes Plays Out in the Evolution of Genitalia - New York Times

Who knew that duck's had such strange genitalia:

Dr. Brennan, a post-doctoral researcher at Yale University and the University of Sheffield, visits the sanctuary every two weeks to measure the phalluses of six species of ducks.

When she first visited in January, the phalluses were the size of rice grains. Now many of them are growing rapidly. The champion phallus from this Meller’s duck is a long, spiraling tentacle. Some ducks grow phalluses as long as their entire body. In the fall, the genitalia will disappear, only to reappear next spring.

Not much chance of a duck hiding his interest during summer.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Mad scientist at work?

One of my ongoing duties to my embarrassingly small readership is to keep an eye on arxiv.org and report on papers that I don't understand but which still seem important, or at least entertaining.

My latest find is a topical one for Australia. The extremely prolific Russian-American scientist Alexander Bolokin has a recent paper with two novel approaches to extracting water from the air in large quantities. The paper itself, in far from perfect English, is here.

The two ideas:

1. A 3 to 5 km high (!) and 200 m wide inflatable tube is erected and supported by wire cables. Moist air is heated at the bottom, rises up through the tube (drawn up by the wind shear at the top of the open tube.) Moisture condenses at high altitude, is collected and on its way back down is used to generate electricity (through a turbine at the base, I think he means.) He also has a wind turbine at the top, although one expects that this may be rather heavy and not be good for the balance of a 3 km high inflatable tube. Solar cells on the outside of the tube get a mention too.

As I will explain below, Bolokin has a real fondness for high inflateable towers as potential tourist attractions, and this tower also has elevators and tourism built into the concept.

How much water does he think this will produce? About 224,000 Kilolitres a day. According to the Courier Mail, the south east region of Queensland was currently still using about 700 megalitres a day. So one tower does not do away with the need for rain entirely, but would make up a very reliable big percentage of daily use.

2. The second idea is to pump moist surface air through a tube beneath the sea to a depth of perhaps 30 m, where (so he says) the water temperature is 5 - 10 degrees. I assume water is then condensed out too, but the details of this method seem poorly explained compared to the big tower. Certainly, though, the engineering involved in getting air down to 30 m below sea level sound a lot less daunting than getting it up a tube 3 km high.

You can't accuse him of not thinking big, at least.

But is he making any sense at all?

One of his other recent ideas is for an inflatable space elevator filled with electron gas. His "electrostatic mast" would simply be built from the ground up, up to 36,000 km high or more. (Actually, he says that current strength materials would allow one to be built up to 500 km high; bigger ones require new material, I think.)

Bolokin notes that a feature of such a tower would be the "entertainment and observation platform", although he does not specify at what dizzying height this could be.

One other idea he mentions:

The airship from the thin film filled by an electron gas has 30% more lift force then conventional dirigible filled by helium. (2) Electron dirigible is significantly cheaper then same helium dirigible because the helium is very expensive gas. (3) One does not have problem with changing the lift force because no problem to add or to delete the electrons.

So, while he appears to have done sane enough work in past, has Bolokin jumped the shark with these ideas? Or is the future really inflatable?

Current movie dross

It's good to see Quentin Tarantino having a certified flop. His main oeuvre of ironic dark splatter fun has never appealed to me, and (dare I say it, because he does have his intelligent defenders) has always seemed to me to be the work of an immature man made primarily for immature men.

There are worse films around, though, and it always surprises me that the surge in misogynistic horror (including Australia's own recent entry - "Wolf Creek") has been attracting an audience, but little in the way of public outcry. The Guardian has a good article about this disturbing trend. You would have thought that even "third wave" feminists might have been more vocal about this, but it seems to attract very little attention, apart from the odd scathing review.

Even without the misogynistic element, I just don't get horror generally. Tension and scares are fine, enjoyable even, but a desire to see the blood and guts and body bits dismembered - what exactly is the appeal? Give me Hitchcock and a knife in the back any day over a realistic depiction of decapitation.

Reviewing the flat earth

It’s a mad old world-Arts & Entertainment-Books-History-TimesOnline

This looks like an interesting book, covering the history of the idea of the earth being flat. It was not as common an idea as some people seem to think:

....it’s really quite stupid and credulous of us now to believe that most medieval people thought Columbus would fall off the edge of the world. They could see as well as you or I that a ship disappears over the horizon after a few miles, or that during a lunar eclipse, the shadow of the earth on the moon is round. Duh. There was “no mutiny of flat-earth sailors on the Santa Maria”.

Plato, Aristotle, Euclid, Archimedes, Ptolemy, St Augustine and Bede were all firm “globularists”, in Garwood’s pleasing neologism, while Newton refined things still further by showing that we really lived on an “oblate spheroid” (the earth bulges in the middle, to you and me).

More on evidence of psychosis and marijuana

BBC NEWS | Health | Cannabis 'disrupts brain centre'

This report indicates that some very specific experiments with THC should really be putting the final nail in the coffin of the the arguments against there being cause and effect between marijuana use and schizophrenia.

Also, it notes that:

Experts are concerned that street cannabis is becoming increasingly potent. It is thought that average THC content has risen from 6% to 12% in recent years.

This increase in potency is highly disputed by some, but I presume "the experts" do have some proper basis for the claim.

An increase in THC sounds to me like a more plausible explanation for the danger of hydroponically grown marijuana, rather than it being due to the pesticides and other chemicals used while it is growing.

Hitchens on George

George Tenet's disgraceful new book. - By Christopher Hitchens - Slate Magazine

Christopher thinks little, to put it mildly, of George Tenet's claims of being scapegoated over Iraq.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Japan, Sex and History

Japan's love affairs with sex | The Japan Times Online

This essay is not particularly well written, but contains enough semi-sordid educational material that it is worth reading.

For example, the founding myth of Japan has the first two deities as a husband and wife:

A charming account of their courtship follows, in which the god and goddess shyly discover each other's sexual parts and Izanagi declares:

"I wish to unite this source-place of my body to the source-place of thy body.''

Their first offspring were islands; then came a profusion of gods and goddesses, one of whom was Amaterasu, the sun goddess.

I wonder if that "source-place of my body" line works in bars in Japan today.

Hitchens' religion series

For those who haven't already noticed, Slate is running excerpts from Christopher Hitchen's new anti-religion book.

Of course, I don't agree with his thesis, but he at least promises to be a wittier and less irritating writer on the topic than the likes of Dawkins. (His preconceptions clearly influence even his literary judgement though; in the first extract he dismisses CS Lewis as a "dreary" apologist! Lewis may have flaws in some of his arguments, but a "dreary" writer he surely isn't.)

A couple of the extracts are already interesting: those summarising the foundation of Islam and Mormonism (and looking at the similarities between the two.)

Given our proximity in time to the founding of Mormonism, it is remarkable how that church is successful in light of the (relative) ease of investigation into the circumstances of its creation. (Of course, the Church of Scientology is an even more puzzling success.)

On the move in and out of Iraq

Comment is free: Iraq's refugee crisis

That there has been very large population displacement within and out of Iraq is clear. With such large population shifts, it's a wonder that there is not more regional multinational interest in helping end the turmoil. However, as the article notes:

Two million Iraqi refugees are scattered around the region, the great majority of them in Jordan and Syria, with smaller numbers in Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt. Because they are urban refugees - not housed in tents, but rather blending in with the local population in the host countries - they are easily ignored.

I guess that the countries who are most interested in the internal situation in Iraq (I presume, Iran and Saudi Arabia) don't have many refugees and see it as not their problem.

The Tablet reports that things are not going well for the remaining Christians in Iraq either:

Archbishop Louis Sako of Kirkuk warned that attacks on Christians by radical Islamic groups, previously localised in sectors of cities such as Baghdad and Mosul, had now spread across the country, even into areas previously considered a safe haven for Christians.

"In Iraq Christians are dying, the Church is disappearing under continued persecution, threats and violence carried out by extremists who are leaving us no choice: conversion or exile," said the Chaldean archbishop.

Radical Sunni groups in areas of Baghdad were threatening local Christians with violence unless they paid a jizya, or "donation", towards the insurgency, immediately converted to Islam, or handed over their homes and fled the country, Archbishop Sako said...

Ten of Baghdad's 80 Christian churches have closed since 2003. Fifty thousand Iraqis are fleeing the country each month, according to the UN. While they make up 5 per cent of the population, Christians constitute 40 per cent of those fleeing.

Radical Sunnis are such a likeable bunch.

Update: Tigerhawk has a long and interesting post about a talk given by Lawrence Wright, who seems to know what he is talking about when it comes to al Qaeda. Good reading.

Just strange

BBC NEWS | Europe | Dutchman's Noah's ark opens doors:

A half-sized replica of the biblical Noah's Ark has been built by a Dutch man, complete with model animals.

Dutch creationist Johan Huibers built the ark as testament to his literal belief in the Bible.

The ark, in the town of Schagen, is 150 cubits long - half the length of Noah's - and three storeys high. A cubit was about 45cm (18in) long.

The ark opened its doors on Saturday, after almost two years' construction, most of it by Mr Huiber himself.

Al Gore should have been invited to the opening too.

Friday, April 27, 2007

Cranking up the insincerity

Rudd silent on economy, says PM. 27/04/2007. ABC News Online

Kevin Rudd has to resort to the patently silly forms of attack on conservative politics and the PM for the sound bites on TV tonight:

He says a Labor government would set a new standard.

"We stand for community, we stand for country, we stand for the planet," he said.

"By contrast, the conservatives stand for the three great ennobling values: me, myself and I."

Oh, bring me a bucket.

And as for Howard:

"Mr Howard doesn't really believe in a single idea which didn't appear on black and white television."

This is good in its own way. Resort to such platitudes, which we all know Rudd doesn't genuinely believe (he has the personal friendship with Joe Hockey to illustrate that,) means that he is should start to be seen as cranking up the insincerity for marketing purposes. He is thus shown to be just another politician, which may be the start of of a drop in his puzzling popularity.

Speaking of insincerity, Tony Jones on Lateline last night, interviewing a Kevin Rudd who seemed to me to be unusually giggly, missed a golden opportunity in this section:

KEVIN RUDD: ...... Mr Howard's not interested. We could reduce greenhouse gas emissions, I'm advised, by up to 30 per cent by affecting, by implementing, such an effective demand-side management approach. And lastly, what do we do about clean coal and what do we do about hybrid cars and those sorts of things? We've got clear cut policies on the table for the future. What do we get from Mr Howard? Resounding silence, because he's rooted in the past.

What you do, Kevin, if you really believe in them, is drive one yourself. (Not that Tony Jones made that rejoinder).

More Ehrenreich scepticism

Scotsman.com Living - Books - Party, party, party

This is a good sceptical review of Barbara Ehrenreich's book "Dancing in the Streets" that I mentioned a few posts ago.

Strange goings on in Italy

After a flurry of cases in the 1980's, things have been pretty quiet in Britain and the USA recently with regards to claims of satanic child abuse. However, it has made an appearance again in Italy:

Three women teachers were among six people arrested yesterday accused of sedating and sexually abusing children as young as 3 at a school near Rome.

The teachers — two of whom are grandmothers who had taught at the school and at Sunday school for decades — are said to have part in the repeated abuse of 15 children aged 3 and 5 for a year, filming them in sexual acts with satanic overtones at the teachers’ homes and in a wood.

Even the parish priest defends the accused:

Ottavio Coletta, the Mayor of Rignano Flaminio, said that the town of 8,000 people was enveloped in “a poisonous climate of hatred and vendetta”, and Father Erri Rocchi, the parish priest, said he still believed the teachers were the victims of “malicious tongues”. He said that the women were church-goers and taught at Sunday school.

Unless there is actual video evidence, the odds of eventual acquittal for the accused would have to be extremely high.

Attention space cadets

NASA's Mission to the Moon: How We'll Go Back — and Stay This Time - Popular Mechanics

The current issue of Popular Mechanics at the newsagents in Australia has a cover story about the planning at NASA for the return to the Moon. Happily, it is already on line.

Good reading!

Criminal law reform

To serve justice, you have to get past all the babble - Opinion - smh.com.au

Richard Ackland returns to the issue of reform of the criminal justice system in his column today. Worth reading, even though I suspect that 90% of lawyers in Australia are very resistant to any serious change in this area. (I am just pulling figures out the air, but I would like to see some proper research on this.)

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Problem not solved

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Despair stalks Baghdad as plan falters

Just so I can't be accused of ignoring bad news from Iraq, this assessment of the grim picture in Baghdad still, I reckon, supports my view that the "get out now" crowd are the ones who would hurt Iraqis more if they got their way.