This'll be interesting

Well, the great mystery of how things will pan out under President Obama begins.

It's hard to see how some of his over-the-top supporters could not end up being disappointed. (One suspects much of Europe will end up the same way.)

And does this election make it more or less likely that Israel will do something about Iran?

All will be revealed in due course...

UPDATE - miscellaneous further comments:

* Not many people have been saying it yet, but the popular vote for McCain was higher than many polls predicted, and actually not too bad given the financial crisis. Surely that alone must have shaved at least one or two percent from his popular vote.

* I've made the point elsewhere, but if I were a Democrat, I would be a little worried that such widespread success in both the legislative and the executive arms of government (and the likely liberal lean of the judiciary in future appointments) is going to make it near impossible for them to disclaim responsibility for anything that goes wrong. Truly, if anything gets broke now, they own it.

* Am I the only one who thought Obama seemed a little too dour in his victory speech ? I genuinely don't understand the accolades given to him as a orator. He's competent, but I really think you've got to be "of the left" to be overly impressed. To make a comparison, the oratory of John F Kennedy also dealt with lofty and idealist themes, and did genuinely impress; but at that time, the fate of Western democracy was by no means assured. Speaking of freedom, self sacrifice, human rights and dignity really had some significance to the entire world.

Obama-talk, on the other hand, is just internal politics - complaining about division, promising solutions to difficult and near intractable problems without any detail at all - dressed up in emotional generalities.

* Nevertheless, this post at Tigerhawk sums up well, I think, the generally magnanimous attitude that most of the right wing commentators take towards the Obama win. They do recognise the significance of the symbolism of a black man being president. It is a million miles from the bitterness, accusations and overwrought emotion the left were threatening if they didn't get their way.

* This post at Bryan Appleyard's blog makes a good comparison:

Obama is a hope candidate, and like all hope candidates (Blair being our most recent), he is doomed from the start by absurd expectations and by his own limitations.

* The other "glass half full" way of looking at it is that Democrats and Bush critics generally have bitched and moaned about the job being done by a US president who really has had the most extraordinary challenges to face. Now with an emphatic win, they've got the keys to the car and (one can only hope) might at least develop a bit of humility and realistic appreciation for the difficulties and imperfect nature of all governments.

UPDATE 2: Currency Lad's post this morning about the hypocrisy of the Democrats as "unifiers" makes the point more eloquently than I can.

Now she tells me

Annie Proulx no longer at home on the range - Los Angeles Times

Annie Proulx, author of Brokeback Mountain, presumably did not foresee this consequence:

"I wish I'd never written it," Proulx says...

Not because of the people of Saratoga, a town she doesn't think much of. Not even because the word "brokeback" has been misappropriated, as in, "Hey, you're not goin' brokeback on me, are you?"

It's all the manuscripts, screenplays and letters sent to her by men who rewrite or serialize her story, adding new characters, endings and even successive generations.

"These cover letters," she complains, "always begin with the sentence 'I'm not gay, but . . . ' They think that just because they are men, they understand men better than I do.

Elsewhere, she has given more detail:

She lamented that "remedial writers" are constantly sending "ghastly manuscripts and pornish rewrites of the story to me, expecting me to reply with praise and applause for 'fixing' the story..

Damn. What do I do now with my screenplay that deals with how Tim Blair and Mark Steyn accidentally meet up with Ennis and Andrew Sullivan, while all are moosehunting in the backwoods of New Hampshire, and, you know, one thing leads to another...

Interesting

BBC NEWS | Americas | US Elections 2008 | Who will win the electoral college?

This page at the BBC has a good little doo-dah on it that allows you to move a slider to see how the state electoral colleges have voted over the last 60 years.

It's pretty interesting to see how comprehensive some past election wins have been.

Possible headlines for the near future

Arugula shares soar!

Canada closes border with US: "PM: Go back to your homes, celebrities"

Ellen in hospital with dehydration *

Bullwinkle breathes easier as Palin relocates

Kennedy had "Camelot" - Obama establishes commission to find hum-able tune on Broadway

Andrew Sullivan jailed for stalking Trig - Tried to get hair for DNA testing

* slightly oblique reference to the amount of tears predicted to be shed by Ellen DeGeneres if Proposition 8, banning gay marriage, gets up.

Bet you didn't know this...

Snake bite is a 'neglected tropical disease' - New Scientist:

Snakes kill more people than either dengue fever or skin cancer, according to a new worldwide estimate.

See an interactive map of the areas affected

Cobras, vipers, black mambas and other venomous snakes take between 20,000 and 94,000 lives each year, and bite another 421,000 to 1,841,000 people.

Memories of John Kerry

Just thought I would double check on what John Kerry was saying about the number of US troops in Iraq in 2004:

John Kerry set a three-part test for removing U.S. troops from Iraq if he is elected president, while warning that President Bush might commence a more rapid draw-down this fall to improve his re-election prospects.

The three conditions, Mr. Kerry said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, are "to measure the level of stability" in Iraq, "to measure the outlook for the stability to hold" and "to measure the ability ... of their security forces" to defend Iraq. Until each condition is satisfied, he added, "I will provide for the world's need not to have a failed state in Iraq."

Mr. Kerry's remarks, two weeks before he accepts the nomination of a Democratic Party with deep misgivings about the war, indicate the Massachusetts senator isn't preparing to spell out a timetable for rapid withdrawal of the roughly 140,000 U.S. troops now in Iraq. To the contrary, he suggested that Mr. Bush was more likely to do so, saying "I've heard [it] said by many people" that the White House might be gearing up to withdraw troops before the November election.

Incurably waffle-y, wasn't he?

It's a surprising twist of fate that McCain has not been able to make political mileage out of being proved right on Iraq. Still, the world is fickle, and recessions help no one in power when they arrive.

Yes, still more about Ross & Brand

Dominic Lawson writing in the Independent on the Jonathan Ross/Russell Brand incident, writes about a problem for one type of modern comedian:

....this is where the need of comedians to be seen to tackle taboos has been pushed beyond reason by an increasing absence of boundaries to break. When the whole idea of privacy in sexual matters is seen as hopelessly old-fashioned inhibition, how far must an "edgy" comedian think he needs to go in order to startle his young audience into gasps of incredulous laughter? The answer is: a very, very long way indeed – and yet without any restraint, where is the tension that has always tempered true comedy?

These thoughts came to me on my return to the rail services in England, and hearing a young woman talking loudly in her mobile telephone to some lover about her recent examination for a sexually transmitted disease. The other English people in the carriage seemed unsurprised by this casually revolting monologue; but there was a French couple sitting opposite – their Parisian fastidiousness evident in appearance alone – who gazed in palpable astonishment at this unselfconscious exercise in personal debasement.

I would hazard that neither Russell Brand nor Jonathan Ross would have found this episode surprising, entrenched as they are in what is sometimes laughingly known as "youth culture"

I would argue that there is not an inherent need for comedy to "break boundaries", but still Lawson's point about the increasing crudity of the target youth audience seems accurate.

If Sarah had said that...

Michelle Malkin notes a very recent ramble from "heartbeat away" Joe Biden, that really makes you wonder about how nervous we all might feel if ever he became president.

As one commenter says: "And to think some are worried that Palin could be #2…."

As bad as that?

Election Predictions: Pundits Weigh In

Out of a long list of political pundits listed above (including Karl Rove!) only one - Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard and Fox News - predicts a John McCain win. (And a pretty narrow one at that.)

What's more amusing is how in the comments that follow, quite a few Obama fans see Rove's opinion as being all part of the evil plot to convince Democrats that they don't have to bother voting.

New physics?

CDF Ghost Muons | Cosmic Variance

When the Cosmic Variance physicists aren't spending their time promoting gay marriage, Obama and the death of religion (who said scientists are mostly godless liberals?) they do write interesting stuff about physics.

They are very excited about some experimental results which (if confirmed) indicate that some completely new physics has been discovered. (Well, some completely new particle, which may - or may not - solve the mystery of dark matter.) It's not so often that something so unexpected turns up at particle accelerators.

Some science magazines are reporting it too.

My somewhat cynical take on this: aren't we all glad we spent $6 billion (and counting) on the LHC while in fact there was useful stuff being discovered at old labs?

We'll be hearing more about this

Sex on TV Increases Teen Pregnancy, Says Report - TIME

Perhaps that headline should only be "...is associated with increased Teen Pregnancy", but you get the drift.

It would interesting to have a list of TV shows of the last decade which have been shown to have the most irresponsible attitudes to sex. Two immediately spring to my mind:

1. Sex and the City. Was contraception ever mentioned in that show, even in passing? Did any of the women ever say over their Manhattans "Why did I do that? I hardly know the guy and didn't use a condom. Now I've got chlamydia." (Maybe it was dealt with in one episode; I was hardly a regular viewer.)

2. Ally McBeal, but mainly for one outstandingly irresponsible episode in which she had "one off" sex with a hunky stranger she had just met at a car wash. (I think it was in the car wash itself.) Yet the episode was all about what this meant from a sexual politics point of view, of the "how bad is it for women to just want anonymous sex now and then, after all most men would be happy to do that" variety. I don't recall anyone saying to her "Surely you used a condom?" (The spontaneous nature of the incident indicated that she didn't.) Of course, the follow up should have been: "Are you insane? Get off to the STD clinic immediately".

John McCain could make you rich!

An Australian on line bookmaker is offering 9 to 1 for a John McCain win. Now you know where to invest your dwindling retirement funds.*

*Disclaimer: Opinion Dominion is not a licensed financial adviser, nor even comfortably rich. However, a share of any winnings from this tip will be gratefully received.

The Japanese who can samba

An enclave of Brazilians is testing insular Japan - International Herald Tribune

Until I started visiting Japan, I didn't know anything about the South American connection. You can read an interesting article about Brazilian Japanese who have migrated back to Japan at the link above.

Comment, comment

Comments are cordially invited (on this post) about any recent post.

It's so quiet around here sometimes...

Strange days in England

Pity the women who come within range of Brand and Ross | India Knight - Times Online

Readers will recall last week's post about how a couple of big time BBC radio hosts caused an uproar by leaving obscene and juvenile messages on the answering machine of a 78 year old actor, who didn't find it terribly funny.

Thousands of people complained, the PM criticised the BBC; comedian Russell Brand belatedly resigned, and Jonathan Ross, who has been around forever on British TV as well, was suspended for a few months.

Yet, over the weekend, there were a couple of articles in the British press claiming this was all massive overkill.

The strangest defence of all came from India Knight in The Times (see above). She complains that if the public likes 2 blokes of mature age carrying on like "hysterical teenagers", then the BBC ought to keep running them (provided they apologised, which they had.)

Yet by the end, she claims this:

"...what lies at the centre of this sorry saga is misogyny. None of it would have happened if Ross and Brand displayed - or were asked to display - even an iota of respect for women. Instead, both men have made part of their living out of treating women - wives and mothers excluded - as though they were pieces of meat. This can be very funny but it sticks in the craw."

She then explains how she once did a "straight" interview with Brand, and weeks later (after the interview was published):

I was ... taken aback to find myself named on air as a prelude to Brand discussing my bosoms with, surreally, Noel Gallagher from Oasis, who insistently asked: “Did you sleep with her?”, a question that caused Brand to speculate in some detail about what sleeping with me might have been like. None of this was mean or cruel, but it was out of order and reductive: woman, ergo piece of meat, fair game, punchline, nonperson.

It seems pretty amazing that she defends Brand at all in light of this. He sounds about as loveable, mature and intelligent as our Kyle Sandiland, and I for one would be most upset if he scored a slot on ABC radio or television.

Just all further evidence for my evolving thesis about the great moral decline of England.

More Japan pics

It's time to show some more photos of minor interest from my recent Japan trip. As always, clicking on the photos makes them bigger and somewhat more impressive.

Another small town in the northern part of Honshu is Hanamaki. The centre of town itself is nothing special, but it has many onsen hotels in the area, and we stayed in one which had a particularly pretty setting. Here's the view from the back:


There were pleasant walks to be had around the surrounding farm area, with featured many rice fields. (Mind you, rice is grown absolutely every it can fit in Japan. Staying with friends well in the middle of in Osaka, their apartment looked over a small rice field.) While I had seen green rice fields in spring and summer before, I didn't realise they went a nice golden colour before harvest:


Not only are houses, hotel rooms and cars small in Japan, so are the tiny sized rice harvesters:


Walking around, we saw this older style onsen, still operating apparently, but it put me a little in mind of the one in Spirited Away.


This flower (cosmos, I believe) was very common this visit, including in the gardens and roadsides around Hanamaki:


This was a very large, extra-touristy, onsen hotel, with entertainment each evening. The local farmers' elder sons (the only ones allowed to do this, apparently) presumably make a bit of extra money of an evening by doing the deer dance. This clip is not too exciting, but I'm sure you've wasted your time on worse diversions:



After all that walking and entertainment, it is reassuring to see the automatic defibrillator in the hotel foyer:


These have become an incredible fad in Japan over the last few years, and they appear in all sorts of places now. (Soon I expect they'll be in cars.) One wonders whether the staff administer the shock, or if they have to wait for the ambulance to arrive. (UPDATE: anyone can use them, apparently, and there is a very interesting and detailed article in Nature about how and why they have appeared everywhere in Japan.)

So, you can do certainly do worse than try the onsen of Hanamaki. Wish I could remember the name of the one we stayed at, but my wife will know if anyone is interested.

Developer perils in China

Bursting of bubble hits Chinese middle class | theage.com.au

The Age has an interesting article today on the downturn in the real estate boom in China. There are bargains to be had in new apartments, at least compared to a year or so ago, and things may well get worse.

The most fascinating part of the story is this:

Buyers in the West are familiar with the property market tides that alternate between spreading wealth and financial misery. Western courts tend to dismiss the claims of real estate agents as "mere puffery". But in China, where the concept of private home ownership is scarcely a decade old, those who bought near the top tend to believe they have been robbed. The first buyers to notice their wealth diminishing were those who bought unfinished apartments and watched neighbouring units being sold for much less. They are banding together to accost developers, air their grievances in the media and take their problems to court.

"Don't buy Zhonghai houses, the value will fall fast," chanted a crowd last weekend at a Zhonghai development in eastern Beijing. A Zhonghai manager, Ouyang Guoxin, negotiated the crowd's silence by promising to buy back the apartments at original contract prices during the week, which he never did. On Tuesday the crowd raided the group's offices in West Beijing and disconnected the receptionist's computer.

And as for the legal system: well, it isn't helping. (Mind you, not that it should, in this particular case, but still it could be better handled than this):

Shanghai lawyer Du Yueping says he has received inquiries from disgruntled investors in most major Chinese cities, including 400 in the coastal city of Xiamen. "They're all asking me the same question, how they get their money back," he says.

Each working day since September 23, Mr Du has tried to file a writ in Shanghai's Pudong District Court. Each time, the judge has refused to accept the paper work, citing orders from above.

Pornography, sex (and cows) in Indonesia

It's been months since I've checked the Jakarta Post, which is a pity because I have been missing stories like these.

Australians are rightly concerned about the Labor Party's plans to compulsorily censor the internet at ISP level. (Funny how little time blogs Larvatus Prodeo have spent on the issue. If it had been done under John Howard, the lefty blogosphere and The Age would be brimming every day with column inches about the fascist nature of the government.)

Yet, things could be worse. In Indonesia, what sounds like the world's vaguest anti-pornography legistlation has just been enacted:

Here's the Jakarta Post's list of concerns:

Contentious articles in the porn bill:

1. Article 1: Definition
Pornography is drawings, sketches, illustrations, photographs, texts, voices, sound, moving pictures, animations, cartoons, poetry, conversations, gestures, or other forms of communicative messages through various kinds of media; and/or performances in front of the public, which may incite obscenity, sexual exploitation and/or violate moral ethics in the community.
Feared impact:
The definition is open to all kinds of interpretation, such as how to define gestures that incite obscenity or sexual exploitation, and will be subject to debate.

2. Articles 20-23: Public Participation
The public can play a role in preventing the production, distribution and use of pornography...by...(d) supervising people on the danger of pornography.
Feared impact:
This article could be used by certain groups to take the law into their own hands by attacking people they believe are violating the law.

3. Articles 8, 34, 36: Criminalization of victims
The articles threatens up to 10 years in prison or Rp 5 billion in fines for violators of the law.
Feared impact:
Artists or models in art shows or productions could be punished for their creativity.

Yep, watch your hand gestures next time you are in Jakarta.

In further Indonesian sex news, this time involving cows, who knew that in Bali, if a man is caught having sex with a bovine, religious purification requires that the cow (but not the man) be drowned?

I note that the man in question was aged 70. Maybe he had been watching too much Japanese DVD porn. (See previous post if you don't understand.)

Anyhow, surely everyone should feel sorry for the cow. But I suppose we do have to teach such brazen temptresses a lesson.

Disturbing Japanese story of the year

It was in Time magazine in June, but I missed it then. (Of course, what the nation needs is younger people more involved, and not in a solo way.)

Phillip Adams - professional dill?

Back in March 2006, I noted how one Radio National fixture (Robyn Williams - who has run the Science Show forever) admitted that he had not remembered that when you catch a plane from Australia in summer to go to New York, it might just be cold at the destination. He wore sandals and (I think) shorts on the plane. Just how many people with a university education and a lifetime of thinking about science do that?

(Men who don't wear closed in footwear on long international flights have always annoyed me anyway: feet and sandals can smell, and I don't reckon they could be as inherently safe as proper shoes in an emergency exit situation.)

Well, a lack of common sense seems to be thriving at Radio National, particularly in the overtly political broadcasters.

Phillip Adams on Wednesday night seemed to have a bit of time to kill, and started his show by detailing his misadventures in getting into his Sydney home. You can listen to it here, but I'll summarise from memory:

a. due to some accident, he has been using only one eye this week;
b. he realised a couple of nights ago during his evening radio show that he had locked himself out of his Sydney house;
c. his house is narrow but 4 levels high;
d. he decided to get in by climbing up to the 3rd level balcony with an extension ladder, which he had trouble working out how to use properly;
e. this he did, in the dark and (by the sounds of it) by himself;
f. he got up to the balcony (the door to which he presumably does not lock) and got inside;
g. his monitored alarm system then went off, waking up the neighbours (as his show ends at 11pm, this was presumably around midnight);
h. the alarm company rang and asked for his password. He could not remember it, nor even his own phone number (!)

He did not bring this up, but he is aged 69. He is well know for his Egyptian artefact collection, and made his millions in advertising.

So, the next time you see a one eyed, grey, rich, somewhat overweight 69 year old man teetering three levels up on an extension ladder in Paddington, you might want to call out to him :"Phillip, there is such a thing as a 24 hour locksmith, you know!"