Black holes at CERN - a short update

This recent post noted a paper (by credible physicists) indicating that mini black holes that might be created at the LHC might live for minutes, rather than the previously popular suggestion of minuscule fractions of a second. They still did not think that there could be danger from such micro black holes (they still could not start serious accretion).

I see that the authors of the paper appear to have revised it to make it sound more emphatically safe than the wording used in first version indicated. (One suspects on the suggestion of physicists at CERN?)

This led me to wondering what Rainer Plaga was up to, given that he had defended his early "danger warning" paper from criticism that he had made a fundamental mistake in the formula he had applied.

So, I emailed him. (Gotta love the internet.)

He responded saying that he is working on a further appendix to his paper, which will refer to the Casadio/Fabi/Harms paper about the minute-long black holes. He says they use basically the same approach as him, and he notes that the Mangano/Giddings safety paper did not refer to this approach at all. (Remember Casadio and co acknowledge discussions with Plaga in their paper, indicating that he definitely has credibility.)

So, more to come yet on the issue.

The BBC on ocean acidification

BBC NEWS | Science & Environment | 'Coral lab' offers acidity insight

Go to the link to find a series of pages which provide a quite balanced treatment of the issue of ocean acidification.

As usual, the news is nearly all bad. (There are a couple of quasi-dissenting scientists noted, but still no one who seems to think the oceans and reefs are going to be OK.)

Something I didn't know

France moves to raise drinking age to 18 - International Herald Tribune

The drinking age in France varies depending on the type of alcohol involved and the place of sale. But anyone 16 or older can order beer and wine in bars.

French teenagers who suddenly find themselves underage may grow jealous of neighboring countries such as Germany or Italy where the legal drinking age is still 16 for beer, wine or liquor. Europeans overall take a more liberal view of alcohol than, for instance, the United States, where the legal drinking age is 21. In most of Western Europe, it ranges from 16 to 18.

And yet it is the British with the worst reputation for drunken yobs on the streets. So how do the French teenagers manage:

A study of French 16-year-olds showed an overall rise in regular alcohol use from 1999 to 2007, going from 8 percent to 13 percent. In 2007, almost one in five boys, and one in 10 girls, reported at least 10 drinking episodes during the month, according to the French Monitoring Center on Drugs and Addiction.

I don't find that too shocking, compared to what one imagines what would happen in Britain if the drinking age was lowered to 16.

I like the reaction from businesses in France:

Café owners complain that they cannot play the role of the police, checking everyone's identity. Some with a large under-18 clientele say business will suffer.

"Ten-year-olds, 12-year-olds, I agree. But to forbid 16-year-olds? You can't take people for idiots," said Anais Chettrit, owner of the café Le Molière in eastern Paris.

Chettrit said that 60 percent of the clients at her busy café, near two high schools, were under 18 and that it was "certain" raising the drinking age would cut into business.

Obviously, I need to spend more time in France observing society.

Better left unsaid

Doctor apologizes for saying people should smoke themselves to death › Japan Today

A doctor has apologized after saying that people should smoke themselves to an early death to save the country money on elderly care, according to his hospital. “It is clear that medical costs will increase if non-smoking spreads,” the doctor said last week, according to Ida Hospital in Kawasaki City. “It’s better that people smoke a lot and die early.”

Maybe he was an economics student before he did medicine.

In any event, did you realise how popular smoking still is in Japan?:

Japan’s overall smoking rate is declining. The rate for men was 39.5%, still high among developed countries but half of the rate of four decades ago, according to a 2008 survey by Japan Tobacco Inc. The rate for women was 12.9%, down from 15% in 1968.

I see that Australia was at that rate for men in 1980. (In 1945, 72% of Australian men smoked.) We're currently at about 22%. Japan has some way to go.

Prediction: Labor in Queensland gone

Clean oil spill by hand or stop, Sunshine Coast council told - ABC News

In case you hadn't heard, there's quite a big oil spill off the Queensland coast, affecting first Moreton Island, and now some of the nicest beaches on the Sunshine Coast.

You can't blame the Labor government for that, but I suspect the very slow and bureaucratic reaction to the clean up is quite likely to be the final nail in the coffin of the Anna Bligh government at the forthcoming election:

The Sunshine Coast Regional Council on the south-east Queensland coast has been ordered to stop the clean-up of 8.5 kilometres of beaches that have been coated in fuel oil that leaked from the ship Pacific Adventurer.

The ABC has learned that Maritime Safety Queensland has told the council it is inappropriate to use machinery on the beach to clean up the oil slick and that staff should use hand tools.

Sunshine Coast Mayor Bob Abbot says he can not understand the ruling.

"We're just thinking that's a bit ridiculous," he said.

Indeed.

Mark Bahnisch says today that Labor is in deep trouble. That's good. There really was no way that Labor deserved to win the last election, but a hopeless performance by the Liberals in particular just meant that people couldn't bring themselves to vote for the Opposition.

The timing of this election for the LNP is good. The awful situation in the Bundberg public hospital with wildly over-enthusiastic surgeon Patel, although known before the last election, is in the news again thanks to his commital trial. The Health Minister made himself sound a completely insensitive idiot by saying he should be the one receiving an apology following a long delayed report on how one of his nurses came to be raped. (The core security problem is also still to be fixed!) The police minister Judy Spence has always looked and sounded incompetent. The 30 year old Treasurer Andrew Fraser might be a smart guy for all I know, but it's not a good look to be in that position just as your State's finances take a nosedive, no matter whose fault it is.

Anna Bligh is trying to keep all the attention on herself, but she doesn't have the same roguish appeal of Peter Beattie. (Although, that said, it's hard to imagine him being able to overcome the "it's time" factor of this election either.) Her appearances with Prime Minister Rudd, who manages to maintain popularity by sending voters large cheques every 3 months, do not seem to be doing the trick.

A surprising number of people that I know who generally appear to be Labor inclined have said that they don't mind Lawrence Springborg. (In fact, they seem to like him more than I do.) I think he just has to pretty much keep his head down and he's in.

I suspect that most people will vote with the attitude that the LNP could not do any worse, and it is time for a break from Labor. It's not an unreasonable way of looking at it.

And it is, of course, always a delicious irony that it's Labor that keeps putting up women Premiers who promptly go on to lose government as soon as they have to face the electorate. (Maybe they will eventually cotton on that they should put one up as leader of the Opposition first and let them get into power that way.)

People of Queensland: let's keep up this proud Australian tradition. It is fun to annoy electioneering feminists, after all.

Gift solicited

Bitten: True Medical Stories of ... - Google Book Search

Looks to be a fun read:

We’ve all been bitten. And we all have stories.
The bite attacks that Pamela Nagami, M.D., has chosen to write about in Bitten take place in big cities, small towns, and remote villages around the world and throughout history, locales as familiar as New York or Hollywood, or exotic as Africa, the Middle East, or Indonesia. They include a six-year-old girl who descended into weeks of extreme lassitude from a tick bite; a diabetic in the West Indies who awoke to find a rat eating two of his toes; a California man who developed “flesh-eating strep” following a penile bite; and more.

Be the first reader to send me a gift in (nearly) 4 years of blogging! Postal address provided on request.

Breath will not be held.

Child brides of India

High Prevalence Of Child Marriage In India Fuels Fertility Risks

....nearly half of adult Indian women, aged 20 to 24, were married before the legal age of 18, and that those child marriages were significantly associated with poor fertility outcomes, such as unwanted and terminated pregnancies, repeat childbirths in less than 24 months, and increased sterilization rates.

I'm not entirely sure why they included "increased sterilization rates" under the heading "poor fertility outcomes", but in any event, it's the terminated pregnancies that are of more concern.

So, how young are they getting married in India?:

The study found that 44.5 percent of women ages 22 to 24 were married before age 18. More than one in five – 22.6 percent – were married before age 16, while 2.6 percent were married before age 13.

India, the largest and most prosperous nation in south Asia, raised the legal age for marriage to 18 in 1978.

Evidently, it's a law that isn't enforced.

These figures are pretty surprising. On the up side, it's good to see some fertility/sexuality issues for which no one can blame the Catholic Church!

Pope doesn't surf the web all that often

Pope embraces internet in apology over Holocaust bishop -Times Online

The Pope has admitted fallibility over the Vatican's handling of a Holocaust-denying bishop and has vowed to make full use of the internet to make sure the Holy See is not caught out again.

I guess we'll know he has embraced the internet when we see him start Twittering during Mass in St Peter's.

Less than zero photons?

Quantum physics and reality | I'm not looking, honest! | The Economist

Not all that many places picked up on this report that appeared in The Economist, of all places, probably because it is hard to understand what it means.

It seems that a team of clever Japanese physicists have confirmed another team's experiment in which they, in effect, directly observed a quantum paradox (called Hardy's paradox. No, I hadn't heard of it before either.)

The implications, according to the magazine are:

They managed to do what had previously been thought impossible: they probed reality without disturbing it. Not disturbing it is the quantum-mechanical equivalent of not really looking. So they were able to show that the universe does indeed exist when it is not being observed.

Well, that's encouraging, I suppose.

But the physical meaning of what they observed seems very unclear:

What the several researchers found was that there were more photons in some places than there should have been and fewer in others. The stunning result, though, was that in some places the number of photons was actually less than zero. Fewer than zero particles being present usually means that you have antiparticles instead. But there is no such thing as an antiphoton (photons are their own antiparticles, and are pure energy in any case), so that cannot apply here.

The only mathematically consistent explanation known for this result is therefore Hardy’s. The weird things he predicted are real and they can, indeed, only be seen by people who are not looking. Dr Yokota and his colleagues went so far as to call their results “preposterous”.

That word appears in the abstract to the paper:

Unlike Hardy's original argument in which the contradiction is inferred by retrodiction, our experiment reveals its paradoxical nature as preposterous values actually read out from the meter.

The Science Daily version of the story doesn't add much.

This is all very interesting, but it seems to me that no one is doing a good job of explaining what it means from the point of view of the understanding of quantum physics and reality. I have some questions:

1. Is this relevant to the question of whether the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics is correct?

2. Is it relevant to the more famous quantum paradox of Schrodinger's cat? (My initial hunch is that it tells us the cat is really there, and it is both dead and alive!)

Philosophers of the quantum world, get to it!

The tiny, tiny radio

The World's Smallest Radio: Scientific American

Carbon nanotubes have already successfully been used as tiny radios, apparently. The implications:

The nanotube radio, its fabricators say, could be the basis for a range of revolutionary applications: hearing aids, cell phones and ­iPods small enough to fit completely within the ear canal. The nanoradio “would easily fit inside a living cell,” Zettl says. “One can envision interfaces to brain or muscle functions or radio-controlled devices moving through the bloodstream.”

I'm not entirely sure what the memory of an ear canal iPod would be based on, but it's a neat science fiction-y idea.

I like the first comment after the story:

Now the tinfoil hat battalions have something new to worry about; never mind the "implant that the ___ put in to control my brain", they can now fantasize about receiving nanoradio control devices from every vaccination or blood test!

Cats making people mad (and otherwise ill)

Research supports toxoplasmosis link to schizophrenia

Dr McConkey says: "It's highly unlikely that we will find one definitive trigger for schizophrenia as there are many factors involved, but our studies will provide a clue to how toxoplasmosis infection - which is more common than you might think - can impact on the development of the condition in some individuals.

"In addition, the ability of the parasite to make dopamine implies a potential link with other neurological conditions such as Parkinson's Disease, Tourette's syndrome and attention deficit disorders, says Dr McConkey. "We'd like to extend our research to look at this possibility more closely."

An unexpected finding

Older father, younger mother, bad idea for baby? - Science, News - The Independent

The offspring of older fathers are more likely to do less well in intelligence tests than the children of younger men, scientists say, and it may be the result of genetic problems with the sperm of men over 45. The children of older mothers, by contrast, tend to fare better in intelligence tests than children with younger mothers. The researchers believe this may be the result of better nurturing by more mature women.

It is one of the anomalies of modern life that bodies are best for healthy procreation at a relatively young age, but emotional maturity lags quite far behind.

Stem cell musings

You just won the stem-cell war. Don't lose your soul. - By William Saletan - Slate Magazine

Saletan is routinely an interesting writer on science and bioethics, and this column is no exception.

Useless research update

Belief and the brain's 'God spot' - Science, News - The Independent

Scientists searching for the neural "God spot", which is supposed to control religious belief, believe that there is not just one but several areas of the brain that form the biological foundations of religious belief....

"Religious belief and behaviour are a hallmark of human life, with no accepted animal equivalent, and found in all cultures," said Professor Jordan Grafman, from the US National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke in Bethesda, near Washington. "Our results are unique in demonstrating that specific components of religious belief are mediated by well-known brain networks, and they support contemporary psychological theories that ground religious belief within evolutionary-adaptive cognitive functions."

Well, I am not entirely sure how one would ever be certain that there is "no accepted animal equivalent". We can be pretty confident that cats are atheists, but a good case could be made for dogs worshipping their owners.

But really, why does anyone really think that this research is worthwhile or beneficial? There are surely many psychiatric illnesses which are worth investigating very thoroughly with MRI and other probes; why waste time and money on research which is always going to be inconclusive and of no potential benefit?

You heard it here first (or elsewhere, maybe. And if it doesn't happen it wasn't mentioned here at all, OK?)

Famed pastor predicts imminent catastrophe

(Actually, there is another alleged prophesy I have been meaning to post about, and I will as soon as I can find it on the web again.)

More on Carbon Tax Vs Cap and trade

Technology Review: The Real Price of Obama's Cap-and-Trade Plan

Obama is planning on generating a lot of money from a cap and trade system. Sounds like building a budget on shaky foundations to me.

Anyhow, here's a good article listing succinctly the pros and cons of carbon tax vs cap and trade.

Remember, you saw it here first

There has been an unusual trend lately for Tim Blair, and now Andrew Bolt, to be posting the same videos that have appeared here months ago:

* Andrew Bolt today posts Youtube of dog with a ball throwing machine. Same video posted here in March 2008.

* On March 4, Tim Blair last week posts video of newscast in which a hamster is identified as a murder suspect. Same video had appeared here on 4 February 2009.

* Tim Blair posts the Youtube of the Mitchell & Webb "Bad Vicar" sketch on February 28, 2009. The same video was posted at Opinion Dominion on 11 April 2008.

At this rate, I figure that both Tim and Andrew are due to start believing in ocean acidification and the need to reduce CO2 by about May 2010.

Time for your bad ocean acidification news of the week

Proof on the Half Shell: A More Acid Ocean Corrodes Sea Life: Scientific American

The shells of tiny ocean animals known as foraminifera—specifically Globigerina bulloides—are shrinking as a result of the slowly acidifying waters of the Southern Ocean near Antarctica. ...

The researchers found that modern G. bulloides could not build shells as large as the ones their ancestors formed as recently as century ago. In fact, modern shells were 35 percent smaller than in the relatively recent past—

Not encouraging.

Getting down to the nitty gritty

Moon base: Location, location, location | csmonitor.com

A pretty good article here speculating on the location and other practical details of a lunar outpost.

The lunar south pole still looks good:

The allure of Shackleton Crater is that it is relatively hospitable and practical. Explorers perched on its rim would experience a night of only 2 Earth days and 4 hours. The crater’s proximity to the moon’s day-night boundary – called the terminator – also makes it an ideal place to test technologies and find out what works and what doesn’t in both environments.

And here is a suggestion for another problem:

But habitats aren’t the only pieces of hardware that must be warmed. Robotic rovers and their batteries also need to survive. “We have a hard time keeping … trucks working in Siberia,” Dr. Ramachandran says. “We have no experience working at minus 150 degrees.”

The solution could be a “wadi” – a patch of lunar surface somewhat larger than a rover and covered with what is in effect a reflective tent. During the day, lenses would heat these strategically spaced wadis. As night nears, hardware would extend a reflective cover over the area – like tin foil over a turkey, shiny side down.

Sounds simple. But one of the main problems for humans is dealing with radiation for anyone needing to stay there for any length of time.

I don't know if this is being considered at all, but my idea is that building a covered framework over which a little bulldozer can gradually pile up a deep mound of dirt for cosmic ray protection might work. (The covering material itself could be airtight, or the whole interior could be sprayed with a sealant.) I would assume that the lower gravity means the framework can be considerably lighter than what you would need on earth.

This seems a lot simpler to me than the idea of baking lunar bricks in situ. You could be lucky and build such a shelter over a pre-existing little crater. Or maybe you just work on a low rise dome type structure. Maybe geodesic domes would work well?

I would be curious to know if this has been considered. Just send the cheque in the mail, NASA.

From the Jerusalem Post

My Word: In the holiday spirit | Columnists | Jerusalem Post:

In an op-ed in the Post on March 3, Michael Bar-Zohar noted that a survey published last month by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center indicates that 46.7 percent of the Palestinians believe that Hamas defeated Israel in the recent fighting in Gaza. On a visit to Egypt many years ago, I was taken aback to discover how many places marked the October 6 War 'victory.' I am not, however, surprised that Egypt - which did nothing to improve life in Gaza during the decades in which it was in control - does not want anything to do with its Palestinian brethren there even now. Let Israel open its border with Gaza, Egypt can't risk it, goes the common thinking in the Egyptian capital.

The terror attack in Cairo a week ago, in which a French schoolchild was killed, shows yet again that they do have reason to fear Islamization. Global jihad is, after all, global. But don't say it too loudly in London or Paris - you might offend the local Muslims.