Close shave - with video

Asteroid blast reveals holes in Earth's defences - space - 26 October 2009 - New Scientist

Why didn't I read about this somewhere else before now?:

On 8 October an asteroid detonated high in the atmosphere above South Sulawesi, Indonesia, releasing about as much energy as 50,000 tons of TNT, according to a NASA estimate released on Friday. That's about three times more powerful than the atomic bomb that levelled Hiroshima, making it one of the largest asteroid explosions ever observed.

However, the blast caused no damage on the ground because of the high altitude, 15 to 20 kilometres above Earth's surface, says astronomer Peter Brown of the University of Western Ontario (UWO), Canada.

Brown and Elizabeth Silber, also of UWO, estimated the explosion energy from infrasound waves that rippled halfway around the world and were recorded by an international network of instruments that listens for nuclear explosions.

So how big was it likely to have been?:

The amount of energy released suggests the object was about 10 metres across, the researchers say. Such objects are thought to hit Earth about once per decade.

No telescope spotted the asteroid ahead of its impact. That is not surprising, given that only a tiny fraction of asteroids smaller than 100 metres across have been catalogued, says Tim Spahr, director of the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Yet objects as small as 20 or 30 metres across may be capable of doing damage on the ground, he says.

People did notice this (and it presumably would have been a big flash if it had been at night):

The explosion was heard by witnesses in Indonesia. Video images of the sky following the event show a dust trail characteristic of an exploding asteroid.

I recommend having a look at that last link to see the big smoky looking trail it left in the sky.

The lessons: at any time, your city could be taken out by an unexpected small asteroid. (Unless you encourage government to spend money on more extensive searches.)

Suitable for comedy

Dear Prudence answers readers' questions live at Washingtonpost.com. - - Slate Magazine

I hope that link always works to the right page. If it does, I strongly recommend question 3 and the advice that follows.

It certainly sounds like a situation that, if shown on something like Seinfeld, you might find improbable.

Perfect for that Fail blog

Cop caught taking up-skirt videos during anti-pervert campaign

Still nutty

Film-maker Paul Haggis quits Scientology over gay rights stance | World news | guardian.co.uk

This story is noteworthy in two respects:

a. Haggis leaves Scientology over anti gay marriage statements by someone in the San Diego branch. This makes them "bigots, hypocrites and homophobes", and the organisation one "where gay-bashing is tolerated". Where once Haggis was dupe of a dubious religion, he's now a dupe of gay rights propaganda.

b. He also is upset that the organisation denies the policy of "disconnection", in which followers are encouraged to break off contact with those who have criticised the church. Says Haggis:

"I was shocked," wrote Haggis. "We all know this policy exists. I didn't have to search for verification - I didn't even have to look any further than my own home. You might recall that my wife was ordered to disconnect from her own parents … although it caused her terrible personal pain, my wife broke off all contact with them."

Um, how long ago did this happen, and is it not a much, much more important reason for doubting the bona fides of the group than its support for Proposition 8?

A not so arrogant Hitchens

What I've learned from debating religious people around the world. - By Christopher Hitchens - Slate Magazine

A little surprisingly, Hitchens does not come across as terribly arrogant in this account of his debates with the faith defenders of the world. I am even more-or-less sympathetic to his position in one respect:

Wilson isn't one of those evasive Christians who mumble apologetically about how some of the Bible stories are really just "metaphors." He is willing to maintain very staunchly that Jesus of Nazareth was the Christ and that his sacrifice redeems our state of sin, which in turn is the outcome of our rebellion against God. He doesn't waffle when asked why God allows so much evil and suffering—of course he "allows" it since it is the inescapable state of rebellious sinners. I much prefer this sincerity to the vague and Python-esque witterings of the interfaith and ecumenical groups who barely respect their own traditions and who look upon faith as just another word for community organizing. (Incidentally, just when is President Barack Obama going to decide which church he attends?)

He also points to some reason to be skeptical of polling about American's religious/scientific beliefs:

...you soon discover that many of those attending are not so sure about all the doctrines, either, just as you very swiftly find out that a vast number of Catholics don't truly believe more than about half of what their church instructs them to think. Every now and then I read reports of polls that tell me that more Americans believe in the virgin birth or the devil than believe in Darwinism: I'd be pretty sure that at least some of these are unwilling to confess their doubts to someone who calls them up on their kitchen phone.

A possible explanation

Further confirming my theory that global warming skepticism is probably caused by prostate* problems, I see that Clive James has come out as an AGW skeptic.

I'm not sure if my theory explains Bolt's and Blair's skepticism, but it would not surprise me at all if they take longer in the toilet than one might expect for men of their age. Anyone who ever seen them at a urinal can report here.

Meanwhile, I see that Lambert has a good post showing (once again) the highly selective use of someone else's work by Ian Plimer in his book.

I really wish someone would go through Plimer's pages on ocean acidification in the same way: I feel a high degree of confidence that he has done exactly the same in that area, but I am not willing to fork out the money to confirm it myself.

* I find it nearly impossible not to type "prostrate" instead of "prostate" despite my best intentions. Error has not been fixed.

Fair comment

Gerard Henderson today talks briefly and fairly about the political difficulty of dealing with unauthorised arrivals by boat. He ends with this point:

The unintended consequence of the Government's criticism of the Opposition on this issue has been to send out a message that Australia is now softer on border protection. In reality, Rudd's Indonesian solution may turn out to be tougher and crueller than Howard's Pacific solution. Australia had some say about how asylum seekers were handled in Nauru and Manus Island. We will have less influence about what goes on in Indonesian detention centres.

As Andrew Bolt points out, this makes no difference to some Rudd supporters, who will praise him for exactly the same things they condemned Howard.

An unapologetic recommendation

Annabel Crabb

Kimchi Christianity

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Will South Korea become Christian?

An interesting article here on the success of Christianity in South Korea. Unfortunately, it would seem that the most successful church is one of the American style "prosperity gospel" churches. I wonder how Catholicism is doing there...

Incidentally, I recently saw the episode of King of the Hill called "Church Hopping", in which Hank and his family try going to a Megachurch. It was very funny while also giving (what I assume to be) a good insight to Texas style Christianity.

Pretending the complicated is simple

Something Mad about refugee policies

Leslie Cannold is typical of the kind of commentator who belittles the humanitarian aspect of the Australian government trying to stop people smuggling via boat. Bob Ellis is the same.

They both decry a supposed "lowest common denominator" "hysteria" about boat people.

Yet, I can't see how it is "hysterical" to say that people smuggling in boats places vulnerable people in dangerous, life threatening situations. It is not a hypothetical danger. Surely it is difficult to argue against the proposition that aggressive action to deter future people smuggling via boat actually saves lives.

There is a legitimate argument to be had over how "tough" that action should or needs to be to stop people smuggling. I was one of those of the view that the processes used by the Howard government were in some respects too tough. But the basic idea of keeping boats from reaching our shores is surely an important way of trying to stop such attempts.

For someone like Ellis to say that support for "toughness" is all about ignorant racism is a facile response to a difficult issue. (Indeed, the evidence of increased African migration we can all see in Australian cities indicates the government is hardly motivated by the colour of the skin of those who want to live here.)

Even though the Rudd government has modified the processes (with support from the Coalition), refugee advocates seem to think they haven't really "won" unless all people turning up on boats are given an easy run through our system. But making the process too easy is going to result in more arrivals via that method, and more drownings.

What about Bob Ellis saying that if we are so concerned about their safety on boats, the government should just let them fly in:

We put the people in physical danger by not letting them come here on aeroplanes and wait in Villawood for a month or so to have their claims assessed. We put them in danger by harassing the boats they were on, and at gunpoint ordering them to go back into stormy seas. We put them in danger by burning the boats others came in on the beach, which meant they had to buy new boats, cheaper and cheaper boats, to come here in. Does anyone have the right to burn another's boat? Isn't that piracy?

Again, he can only afford to say this because he is not a position of responsibility. By what criteria would Ellis have the government decide to let asylum seekers (probably many without papers) get on a 747 to Australia? Those that sign an affidavit saying they will get on a boat if we don't do it?

How many people does Ellis want to migrate here that way, compared to the number of refuges who have been assessed already by the UN and been waiting in a camp for years for a country to take them?

There is nothing easy about the issue, despite what these commentators claim.

It's complicated

Foreign capital | tax | Brazil | Australia | Kenneth Davidson

Ken Davidson talks about what's behind the rising Australian dollar, and to my uneducated in economics eye, appears to make some sense.

Certainly, it's a good time to be buying stuff from America, at least.

Moon cave found?

Found: first 'skylight' on the moon - New Scientist

A deep hole on the moon that could open into a vast underground tunnel has been found for the first time. The discovery strengthens evidence for subsurface, lava-carved channels that could shield future human colonists from space radiation and other hazards.

The moon seems to possess long, winding tunnels called lava tubes that are similar to structures seen on Earth. They are created when the top of a stream of molten rock solidifies and the lava inside drains away, leaving a hollow tube of rock.

Their existence on the moon is hinted at based on observations of sinuous rilles – long, winding depressions carved into the lunar surface by the flow of lava. Some sections of the rilles have collapsed, suggesting that hollow lava tubes hide beneath at least some of the rilles.

But until now, no one has found an opening into what appears to be an intact tube.

The problem of the floating space bowel

In The Museum: Toilet Training | Space Exploration | Air & Space Magazine

Having read quite a bit about the space program in my time, I knew most of the information in the above short article on the history of zero-g toilets, except this bit:

The space shuttle’s toilets are based on the Skylab model, and also operate with a fan and a vacuum. “No matter how much training you’ve had on the ground in how to operate it,” says Neal, “it’s difficult to actually use the first time. So when you finally do succeed, there’s a bit of celebration; they announce to everybody, ‘Okay, I went!’ It’s an accomplishment to master it in microgravity.”

On this ESA page about daily life in the International Space Station, the point is made that it is not just the contraption that is the problem:

Some crew members find the toilet difficult to get used to. As well as the device itself, they have to accustom themselves to the disconcerting fact that their bowels actually float inside their bodies - like the rest of their internal organs and of course everything else on board.

Is this a subtle way of suggesting that constipation is a problem in space? Yes, it appears that it is. A Google search brings a link to a book which comments:

Because the GI tract requires gravity assistance to function optimally, some astronauts suffer constipation which resolves in several days.

Apart from the always fascinating issue of space toilets, it did occur to me recently that we really don't see much on TV showing the interior of the ISS. It's usually just a short snippet on the news showing a bunch of astronauts greeting each other when there is a crew changeover.

In fact, the ESA website has some good pages of school educational material, and I particularly like this page with its videos of such interesting things such as an astronaut brushing his teeth, showing you the bathroom (including the toilet), getting some exercise, etc. It' s interesting to see the interior of the ISS is somewhat humanised by photos and other stuff that the astronauts have obviously brought with them. Well worth a look.

Don't inhale

How I Survived China - The Atlantic (November 2009)

James Fallows has a short but interesting comment on how bad pollution is in China.

Swiss cheese universe

Hey, who can resist an arXiv paper with an abstract that starts like this:

We present strong arguments that the deep structure of the quantum vacuum contains a web of microscopic wormholes or short-cuts. We develop the concept of wormhole spaces and show that this web of wormholes generate a peculiar array of long-range correlations in the patterns of vacuum fluctuations on the Planck scale.

Well, I can't, even though I need to converted into a more pop science format.

Master of my neurons?

You can control your Marilyn Monroe neuron

All sort of odd sounding, and probably has some deep philosophical implications for mind/body stuff, but you can go read it yourself.

Tough talk on Japanese men

The age of listless, wary, anxiety-ridden and insecure young men

A Japanese women's magazine notes:

The term “soshoku danshi” (herbivorous male, as distinct from the carnivores of earlier generations) has grown widely current since being coined in 2006 to describe the timid, emotionally stunted specimens now on the threshold of the prime of life. It’s hard to blame them. As consultant Takao Maekawa points out, with salaries stagnant and jobs, if you’re lucky enough to have one, insecure, “it’s enough to dampen anyone’s enthusiasm for their work.”

Herbivorous—more or less passive, that is to say—attitudes toward courtship are a direct result. “Young men don’t have the confidence their fathers had that they will be able to support a family,” says Ushikubo. “That tends to drain a man’s romantic impulses.”

Adding insult to injury, women, with less vested interest in the way things used to be, are adapting better than men to the way things now are. “Seeing women emerge stronger than themselves,” observes Maekawa, “has further undermined many men’s confidence.”

The answer, apparently, is for women to offer:

"...generous doses of praise, encouragement, and understanding."

[I'm emailing the article to my wife now, as I figure what's good for the Japanese is good for me too.]

But in comments, readers beg to differ:

The listless, insecure young men of today are carbon copies of their fathers. Japanese men are as selfish, immature and emotionally underdeveloped as they have always been. That's simply the very nature of this beast.

I say on behalf of my Japanese brothers: Ouch!

Fusion: the third way

A novel form of fusion power: Psst, kapow! | The Economist

Hadn't heard this one before, but who knows if it will lead anyway.

Welcome back Annabel

I'm not sure why Annabel Crabb was missing from Fairfax for a month or two, but it's good to have her back. In today's column:

Rudd likes to portray his policies as tougher than they really are because, like most Labor MPs who were around in 2001, he clearly remembers the Atomic Wedgie that he and his colleagues copped back then over immigration.

His buttocks now flinch reflexively every time the subject comes up, which is why he keeps saying things like, "I make no apologies for my staring-eyed, extremist, hardline, definitely not soft or anything ideas about illegal immigrants."

And why he persists with describing his policy approach as "humane toughness", a deeply Ruddesque contradiction in terms that fits well with his scores policy (Responsible Drunkenness) and his fiscal policy (Conservative Recklessness).

Listen to your fellow doctors

Womb transplants 'within two years' - Science, News - The Independent

This is just silly:

British scientists believe they will be able to carry out the first-ever successful womb transplant within two years. They have worked out how to transplant a womb with a good blood supply which could mean it lasts long enough to carry a pregnancy to term.

Um, do we know how the immunosuppressants affect babies? (Maybe we do: I suppose it is possible some young women on them have fallen pregnant.)

But even so, Smith, who has been practising this on rabbits, notes:

...there was little interest in the studies in the medical profession but the demand from patients was huge. He said: "There's a lot of dismissal in the profession in terms of this being a step too far in fertility management. But for a woman who is desperate for a baby, this is incredibly important."

Mr Smith, who presented his findings at the American Society for Reproductive Medicine conference in Atlanta, Georgia, said the womb would only stay in place until the woman had had the children she wanted. "The plan is that once a woman has had her children, the uterus comes out and she can come off immunosuppressants."

Mr (I assume it should be "Dr") Smith should spend more time telling patients to be more realistic and that medical science can't appropriately remedy all of life's misfortunes, rather than working on disposable uteri.