I had an earlier version up for a while, but have made some further changes. I trust that my Friend from Perth reports to a certain blog that I finally found a way to post an image of a nude Abbott.
Friday, July 12, 2013
Pleasing movie news
James Bond: Sam Mendes directs Skyfall follow up
I wonder if they will allow James to be a little bit happier this time around.
I wonder if they will allow James to be a little bit happier this time around.
Bad news Friday, Part 2
Energy production causes big US earthquakes : Nature News
Natural-gas extraction, geothermal-energy production and other activities that inject fluid underground have caused numerous earthquakes in the United States, scientists report today in a trio of papers in Science1–3.
Most of these quakes have been small, but some have exceeded magnitude 5.0. They include a magnitude-5.6 event that hit Oklahoma on 6 November 2011, damaging 14 homes and injuring two people, says William Ellsworth, a seismologist at the US Geological Survey in Menlo Park, California, and the author of one of the papers1.
He says that the annual number of earthquakes record at magnitude 3.0 or higher in the central and eastern United States has increased almost tenfold in the past decade — from an average of 21 per year between 1967 and 2000 to a maximum of 188 in 2011. A second study2, led by Nicholas van der Elst, a seismologist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, finds that at least half of the magnitude-4.5 or larger earthquakes that have struck the interior United States in the past decade have occurred near injection-well sites.
Bad news Friday
A blog at the Guardian notes that there is a new James Hansen led paper out soon that argues that burning all our fossil fuels could effectively ruin the planet for humans (too hot to grow food grains, for example). The concern is about poorly understood feedbacks that may lead to a mini runaway increase in temperatures.
That's a worry, of course, but I was more interested to read a summary of other recent papers arguing that there are grounds to question whether a 2 degree increase in global temperatures is really a "safe" level. I've always thought that there was probably a lot of guesswork in that nominal figure, and it is important if it is too "conservative", especially as there has been much publicity lately that the sensitivity to doubling CO2 is closer to 2 degrees than to 3 or 4. If the sense of complacency that some are encouraging as a result of that is ill founded, we should know.
Anyway, here's the summary:
That's a worry, of course, but I was more interested to read a summary of other recent papers arguing that there are grounds to question whether a 2 degree increase in global temperatures is really a "safe" level. I've always thought that there was probably a lot of guesswork in that nominal figure, and it is important if it is too "conservative", especially as there has been much publicity lately that the sensitivity to doubling CO2 is closer to 2 degrees than to 3 or 4. If the sense of complacency that some are encouraging as a result of that is ill founded, we should know.
Anyway, here's the summary:
The new paper by James Hansen is just the latest confirming that we are on the verge of crossing a tipping point into catastrophic climate change. Other recent scientific studies show that the current global emissions trajectory could within three years guarantee a 2C rise in global temperatures, in turn triggering irreversible and dangerous amplifying feedbacks.
According to a scientific paper given at the Geological Society of London last month, climate records from Siberian caves show that temperatures of just 1.5C generate "a tipping point for continuous permafrost to start thawing", according to lead author Prof Anton Vaks from Oxford University's Department of Earth Sciences. Conventional climate models suggest that 1.5C is just 10-30 years away.
Permafrost thawing releases sub-ice undersea methane into the atmosphere - a greenhouse gas twenty times more potent that carbon dioxide. In June, NASA's new five-year programme to study the Arctic carbon cycle, Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), declared:
"If just one percent of the permafrost carbon released over a short time period is methane, it will have the same greenhouse impact as the 99 percent that is released as carbon dioxide."Another paper suggests that conventional climate modelling is too conservative due to not accounting for complex risks and feedbacks within and between ecosystems. The paper published in Nature last Wednesday finds that models used to justify the 2C target as a 'safe' limit focus only on temperature rise and fail to account for impacts on the wider climate system such as sea level rise, ocean acidification, and loss of carbon from soils. It concludes that the 2C target is insufficient to avoid dangerous climate change.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Abbott's anxiety rise continues...
I've just been watching Kevin Rudd's Press Club address on the economy.
He sounds confident, across a lot of details, consultative and smart. Less "Ruddisms" in expression too.
There is no doubt he has been improved greatly by being dumped.
He makes, more than ever, Tony Abbott sound like a mere shallow sloganeer.
(And I'll make another call out across the interwebs: cry Catallaxians, cry...)
He sounds confident, across a lot of details, consultative and smart. Less "Ruddisms" in expression too.
There is no doubt he has been improved greatly by being dumped.
He makes, more than ever, Tony Abbott sound like a mere shallow sloganeer.
(And I'll make another call out across the interwebs: cry Catallaxians, cry...)
More "you don't say...."
Combination of smoking and heavy drinking 'speeds up cognitive decline'
Mind you, seems to me the effect is not exactly all that pronounced:
Mind you, seems to me the effect is not exactly all that pronounced:
The research team found that in current smokers who were also heavy drinkers, cognitive decline was 36% faster than in non-smoking moderate drinkers. This was equivalent to an age effect of 12 years – an additional two years over the 10-year follow up period.Is it that easy to tell the difference between, say, a 67 year old brain and a 65 year old one?
You don't say....
Men and Women Often Expect Different Things When They Move In Together - W. Bradford Wilcox - The Atlantic
A study confirms what common sense and observation should have already made clear:
A study confirms what common sense and observation should have already made clear:
According to a new paper from RAND by sociologists Michael Pollard and Kathleen Mullan Harris, cohabiting young adults have significantly lower levels of commitment than their married peers. This aversion to commitment is particularly prevalent among young men who live with their partners.I wonder how many fathers point this out to their daughters? I mean, they understand the likely psychology of men better than the mother.
Brisbane colonial history noted
I was in the State Library bookshop last Sunday, killing a bit of time before heading off to see War Horse, and briefly noted a book (a novel, I think) which revolved around the Brisbane Bread Riot of 1866.
That's an event I didn't recall having heard about before, so I Googled it up.
I can't seem to link to it directly, but the first on the list should be the link to a good article by Paul Wilson explaining what it was about (basically, not enough work or food for immigrants arriving on boats expecting same, and the government being blamed for poor organisation.)
It has a couple of good, old photos of Brisbane in the period too.
Cities sure changed a lot in the century ranging from 1866 to 1966, didn't they?
That's an event I didn't recall having heard about before, so I Googled it up.
I can't seem to link to it directly, but the first on the list should be the link to a good article by Paul Wilson explaining what it was about (basically, not enough work or food for immigrants arriving on boats expecting same, and the government being blamed for poor organisation.)
It has a couple of good, old photos of Brisbane in the period too.
Cities sure changed a lot in the century ranging from 1866 to 1966, didn't they?
Something to look forward to?
The Joy of Old Age. (No Kidding.) - NYTimes.com
Oliver Sacks writes a short essay on how he is not at all depressed about reaching 80.
We would all hope we can feel the same way.
Oliver Sacks writes a short essay on how he is not at all depressed about reaching 80.
We would all hope we can feel the same way.
This seems very unfair...
Study confirms link between omega-3 fatty acids and increased prostate cancer risk
Published July 11 in the online edition of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, the latest findings indicate that high concentrations of EPA, DPA and DHA – the three anti-inflammatory and metabolically related fatty acids derived from fatty fish and fish-oil supplements – are associated with a 71 percent increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer. The study also found a 44 percent increase in the risk of low-grade prostate cancer and an overall 43 percent increase in risk for all prostate cancers.....
"We've shown once again that use of nutritional supplements may be harmful," said Alan Kristal, Dr.P.H., the paper's senior author and member of the Fred Hutch Public Health Sciences Division. Kristal also noted a recent analysis published in the Journal of the American Medical Association that questioned the benefit of omega-3 supplementation for cardiovascular diseases. The analysis, which combined the data from 20 studies, found no reduction in all-cause mortality, heart attacks or strokes.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Go Lenore
Some direct questions on the Coalition's Direct Action plan | World news | guardian.co.uk
Some quality journalism in The Guardian on the Coalition's CO2 reduction policy, which I have yet to see endorsed as making sense by any economist in the land.
Some quality journalism in The Guardian on the Coalition's CO2 reduction policy, which I have yet to see endorsed as making sense by any economist in the land.
Panic on the Right
That 7.30 interview Tony Abbott gave the other night (which I still haven't watched) must have been crook - there's a full blown panic attack underway at the Tea Party lite blog Catallaxy. My favourite comment amongst a tough field is perhaps the one showing the true Tea Party alignment:
And how does this self regulating place deal with this counsel? Lizzie, a woman who likes talking about her love life so much I feel sure that at her funeral someone will have to tell her to shut up about it, deals with it via a verbal group hug and a big "thanks, Abu, for using an old fashioned homophobic insult":
Update: Cry, Catallaxians, cry! The Wall Street Journal, the only paper you trust internationally because it runs (almost) as many AGW denying articles as The Australian, notes the Rudd momentum, so it must be true.
Also - they (Catallaxians) are already contemplating whether Turnbull might be a better counter to Rudd after all. Most of them are appalled at the suggestion. He believes in climate change, after all...
My family have suffered so much during these Labor years. We have lost so much that we had built over our life-times it almost brings me to tears.Of course, given that the blog is now headed by a painting featuring lots of naked Spartans (libertarian types have a fetish for that "300" story) it has become even more incongruous that one of the regulars will use a homophobic slap in the face to everyone else:
My children have literally been impoverished as these corrupt bastards have enriched themselves to the detriment of the Country.
I tell you, were there a groundswell, I would seriously consider taking up arms against them, I detest them with such an enraged passion.
And this coming from a gentle man, an artist, a believer in God Almighty, but also a former infantryman.
How long must we bear this terrible burden?
It was so wonderful to read your thoughts this morning. Others have been touched by them too. I have been coming here since 2010 (at least) and it has always felt like a second home, a place of refuge, to someone who spent a fair bit of her early youth essentially homeless and has only recently begun to feel secure in herself. I have always been accepted here on my own terms – no easy task – but that is the way it has been and I am grateful for it. It is a fine place and I will not give up on it, nor on the powerful individual and life-affirming things it stands for. Thank you.
And thank you, too, Abu, for slapping us hard.Hilarious.
Update: Cry, Catallaxians, cry! The Wall Street Journal, the only paper you trust internationally because it runs (almost) as many AGW denying articles as The Australian, notes the Rudd momentum, so it must be true.
Also - they (Catallaxians) are already contemplating whether Turnbull might be a better counter to Rudd after all. Most of them are appalled at the suggestion. He believes in climate change, after all...
Future krill kill?
Risk maps for Antarctic krill under projected Southern Ocean acidification : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group
Hey, this blog must one of the few in the world that is always interested in krill stories. If you search at the sidebar, you'll find at least six posts in the past.
And today, another article in Nature Climate Change (above) with concerns that ocean acidification will eventually kill them off in Antarctica, with dire consequences for the whole food chain. I'll cut and paste the whole summary, because it has interesting bits about the entire krill life cycle (who knew their eggs hatched so deep?):
Hey, this blog must one of the few in the world that is always interested in krill stories. If you search at the sidebar, you'll find at least six posts in the past.
And today, another article in Nature Climate Change (above) with concerns that ocean acidification will eventually kill them off in Antarctica, with dire consequences for the whole food chain. I'll cut and paste the whole summary, because it has interesting bits about the entire krill life cycle (who knew their eggs hatched so deep?):
Marine ecosystems of the Southern Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification1. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) is the key pelagic species of the region and its largest fishery resource2. There is therefore concern about the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification and an expanding fishery on krill and ultimately, their dependent predators—whales, seals and penguins3, 4. However, little is known about the sensitivity of krill to ocean acidification. Juvenile and adult krill are already exposed to variable seawater carbonate chemistry because they occupy a range of habitats and migrate both vertically and horizontally on a daily and seasonal basis5. Moreover, krill eggs sink from the surface to hatch at 700–1,000 m (ref. 6), where the carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) in sea water is already greater than it is in the atmosphere7. Krill eggs sink passively and so cannot avoid these conditions. Here we describe the sensitivity of krill egg hatch rates to increased CO2, and present a circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success under projected pCO2 levels. We find that important krill habitats of the Weddell Sea and the Haakon VII Sea to the east are likely to become high-risk areas for krill recruitment within a century. Furthermore, unless CO2 emissions are mitigated, the Southern Ocean krill population could collapse by 2300 with dire consequences for the entire ecosystem.
Tuesday, July 09, 2013
People watching in central Greenland
My blog seems yet to have ever had a hit from Greenland, and I also spend much of this time of year looking at the Arctic sea ice melting around it.
It also does indeed seem to be live and updating every few minutes. I spotted someone on the ice a few minutes ago, and he (or she) is not there now. Oh - I just saw two people walking past.
I see that is summer and still - 12 degrees C. Winter must be brisk!
Update: the website I got the webcam from has a "users guide" for any researcher staying there. Amongst other interesting things to learn are:
* the cook has Sundays off, so everyone has to cook for themselves that day, or eat leftovers;
* it has internet and phone service, but bandwidth is limited. (It seems their phone numbers are listed here, if anyone wants to Skype them. I wonder if this is about the remotest place in the world one can ring and annoy with telemarketing?);
* anyone abusing drugs or alcohol are on the next flight out;
* it's at an elevation of 10,500 feet: altitude sickness can be a real problem for some.
By the way, it's now 2.30 am and the sun is out:
So I was just now inspired to look for webcams from there, and found this one for Summit Station, a research station on the top of the central ice cap. It looks very lonely there:
It also does indeed seem to be live and updating every few minutes. I spotted someone on the ice a few minutes ago, and he (or she) is not there now. Oh - I just saw two people walking past.
I see that is summer and still - 12 degrees C. Winter must be brisk!
Update: the website I got the webcam from has a "users guide" for any researcher staying there. Amongst other interesting things to learn are:
* the cook has Sundays off, so everyone has to cook for themselves that day, or eat leftovers;
* it has internet and phone service, but bandwidth is limited. (It seems their phone numbers are listed here, if anyone wants to Skype them. I wonder if this is about the remotest place in the world one can ring and annoy with telemarketing?);
* anyone abusing drugs or alcohol are on the next flight out;
* it's at an elevation of 10,500 feet: altitude sickness can be a real problem for some.
By the way, it's now 2.30 am and the sun is out:
A good question
Are testicles external for cooling, galloping, display, or something else? - Slate Magazine
So there you go: the reason most people believe - that it's for cooling - is actually much disputed from an evolutionary point of view, and has been for some time.
It's actually a well written, fascinating story.
So there you go: the reason most people believe - that it's for cooling - is actually much disputed from an evolutionary point of view, and has been for some time.
It's actually a well written, fascinating story.
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