Bad news Friday

A blog at the Guardian notes that there is a new James Hansen led paper out soon that argues that burning all our fossil fuels could effectively ruin the planet for humans (too hot to grow food grains, for example).  The concern is about poorly understood feedbacks that may lead to a mini runaway increase in temperatures.

That's a worry, of course, but I was more interested to read a summary of other recent papers arguing that there are grounds to question whether a 2 degree increase in global temperatures is really a "safe" level.   I've always thought that there was probably a lot of guesswork in that nominal figure, and it is important if it is too "conservative", especially as there has been much publicity lately that the sensitivity to doubling CO2 is closer to 2 degrees than to 3 or 4.   If the sense of complacency that some are encouraging as a result of that is ill founded, we should know. 

Anyway, here's the summary:

The new paper by James Hansen is just the latest confirming that we are on the verge of crossing a tipping point into catastrophic climate change. Other recent scientific studies show that the current global emissions trajectory could within three years guarantee a 2C rise in global temperatures, in turn triggering irreversible and dangerous amplifying feedbacks.

According to a scientific paper given at the Geological Society of London last month, climate records from Siberian caves show that temperatures of just 1.5C generate "a tipping point for continuous permafrost to start thawing", according to lead author Prof Anton Vaks from Oxford University's Department of Earth Sciences. Conventional climate models suggest that 1.5C is just 10-30 years away.

Permafrost thawing releases sub-ice undersea methane into the atmosphere - a greenhouse gas twenty times more potent that carbon dioxide. In June, NASA's new five-year programme to study the Arctic carbon cycle, Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), declared:

"If just one percent of the permafrost carbon released over a short time period is methane, it will have the same greenhouse impact as the 99 percent that is released as carbon dioxide."

Another paper suggests that conventional climate modelling is too conservative due to not accounting for complex risks and feedbacks within and between ecosystems. The paper published in Nature last Wednesday finds that models used to justify the 2C target as a 'safe' limit focus only on temperature rise and fail to account for impacts on the wider climate system such as sea level rise, ocean acidification, and loss of carbon from soils. It concludes that the 2C target is insufficient to avoid dangerous climate change.

Abbott's anxiety rise continues...

I've just been watching Kevin Rudd's Press Club address on the economy.

He sounds confident, across a lot of details, consultative and smart.   Less "Ruddisms" in expression too.

There is no doubt he has been improved greatly by being dumped.

He makes, more than ever, Tony Abbott sound like a mere shallow sloganeer.  

(And I'll make another call out across the interwebs:  cry Catallaxians, cry...)

More "you don't say...."

Combination of smoking and heavy drinking 'speeds up cognitive decline'

Mind you, seems to me the effect is not exactly all that pronounced:

The research team found that in current smokers who were also heavy drinkers, cognitive decline was 36% faster than in non-smoking moderate drinkers. This was equivalent to an age effect of 12 years – an additional two years over the 10-year follow up period. 

Is it that easy to tell the difference between, say, a 67 year old brain and a 65 year old one?

 

You don't say....

Men and Women Often Expect Different Things When They Move In Together - W. Bradford Wilcox - The Atlantic

A study confirms what common sense and observation should have already made clear:

 According to a new paper from RAND by sociologists Michael Pollard and Kathleen Mullan Harris, cohabiting young adults have significantly lower levels of commitment than their married peers. This aversion to commitment is particularly prevalent among young men who live with their partners.

I wonder how many fathers point this out to their daughters?   I mean, they understand the likely psychology of men better than the mother.   

Brisbane colonial history noted

I was in the State Library bookshop last Sunday, killing a bit of time before heading off to see War Horse, and briefly noted a book (a novel, I think) which revolved around the Brisbane Bread Riot of 1866.

That's an event I didn't recall having heard about before, so I Googled it up.

I can't seem to link to it directly, but the first on the list should be the link to a good article by Paul Wilson explaining what it was about (basically, not enough work or food for immigrants arriving on boats expecting same, and the government being blamed for poor organisation.)

It has a couple of good, old photos of Brisbane in the period too.

Cities sure changed a lot in the century ranging from 1866 to 1966, didn't they?

Probably not a good idea to eat asparagus before using

Device can sniff out bladder cancer | News.com.au

Fighter pilot redundancy coming soon

US Navy drone lands on aircraft carrier deck in robotic flight breakthrough - ABC News

Something to look forward to?

The Joy of Old Age. (No Kidding.) - NYTimes.com

Oliver Sacks writes a short essay on how he is not at all depressed about reaching 80.  

We would all hope we can feel the same way.

This seems very unfair...

Study confirms link between omega-3 fatty acids and increased prostate cancer risk

Published July 11 in the online edition of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, the latest findings indicate that high concentrations of EPA, DPA and DHA – the three anti-inflammatory and metabolically related fatty acids derived from fatty fish and fish-oil supplements – are associated with a 71 percent increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer. The study also found a 44 percent increase in the risk of low-grade prostate cancer and an overall 43 percent increase in risk for all prostate cancers.....

  "We've shown once again that use of nutritional supplements may be harmful," said Alan Kristal, Dr.P.H., the paper's senior author and member of the Fred Hutch Public Health Sciences Division. Kristal also noted a recent analysis published in the Journal of the American Medical Association that questioned the benefit of omega-3 supplementation for cardiovascular diseases. The analysis, which combined the data from 20 studies, found no reduction in all-cause mortality, heart attacks or strokes.

Tony has an idea

Kevin Rudd, tweets this morning:

Tony Abbott, at 10 am staff meeting:

Go Lenore

Some direct questions on the Coalition's Direct Action plan | World news | guardian.co.uk

Some quality journalism in The Guardian on the Coalition's CO2 reduction policy, which I have yet to see endorsed as making sense by any economist in the land.

Panic on the Right

That 7.30 interview Tony Abbott gave the other night (which I still haven't watched) must have been crook - there's a full blown panic attack underway at the Tea Party lite blog Catallaxy.   My favourite comment amongst a tough field is perhaps the one showing the true Tea Party alignment:

My family have suffered so much during these Labor years. We have lost so much that we had built over our life-times it almost brings me to tears.
My children have literally been impoverished as these corrupt bastards have enriched themselves to the detriment of the Country.
I tell you, were there a groundswell, I would seriously consider taking up arms against them, I detest them with such an enraged passion.
And this coming from a gentle man, an artist, a believer in God Almighty, but also a former infantryman.
How long must we bear this terrible burden?

Of course, given that the blog is now headed by a painting featuring lots of naked Spartans (libertarian types have a fetish for that "300" story) it has become even more incongruous that one of the regulars will use a homophobic slap in the face to everyone else:

And this quavering and quivering over Abbott’s ability is strangely familiar. Deja vu, in fact.
Harden up, fags.

And how does this self regulating place deal with this counsel?   Lizzie, a woman who likes talking about her love life so much I feel sure that at her funeral someone will have to tell her to shut up about it, deals with it via a verbal group hug and a big "thanks, Abu, for using an old fashioned homophobic insult":

It was so wonderful to read your thoughts this morning. Others have been touched by them too. I have been coming here since 2010 (at least) and it has always felt like a second home, a place of refuge, to someone who spent a fair bit of her early youth essentially homeless and has only recently begun to feel secure in herself. I have always been accepted here on my own terms – no easy task – but that is the way it has been and I am grateful for it. It is a fine place and I will not give up on it, nor on the powerful individual and life-affirming things it stands for. Thank you.

And thank you, too, Abu, for slapping us hard.  

 Hilarious.

Update:  Cry, Catallaxians, cry!  The Wall Street Journal, the only paper you trust internationally because it runs (almost) as many AGW denying articles as The Australian,  notes the Rudd momentum, so it must be true.

Also - they (Catallaxians) are already contemplating whether Turnbull might be a better counter to Rudd after all.   Most of them are appalled at the suggestion.  He believes in climate change, after all...

Future krill kill?

Risk maps for Antarctic krill under projected Southern Ocean acidification : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Hey, this blog must one of the few in the world that is always interested in krill stories.   If you search at the sidebar, you'll find at least six posts in the past.

And today, another article in Nature Climate Change (above) with concerns that ocean acidification will eventually kill them off in Antarctica, with dire consequences for the whole food chain.  I'll cut and paste the whole summary, because it has interesting bits about the entire krill life cycle (who knew their eggs hatched so deep?):

Marine ecosystems of the Southern Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification¹. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) is the key pelagic species of the region and its largest fishery resource². There is therefore concern about the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification and an expanding fishery on krill and ultimately, their dependent predators—whales, seals and penguins^{3, 4}. However, little is known about the sensitivity of krill to ocean acidification. Juvenile and adult krill are already exposed to variable seawater carbonate chemistry because they occupy a range of habitats and migrate both vertically and horizontally on a daily and seasonal basis⁵. Moreover, krill eggs sink from the surface to hatch at 700–1,000 m (ref. 6), where the carbon dioxide partial pressure (p_CO2) in sea water is already greater than it is in the atmosphere⁷. Krill eggs sink passively and so cannot avoid these conditions. Here we describe the sensitivity of krill egg hatch rates to increased CO₂, and present a circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success under projected p_CO2 levels. We find that important krill habitats of the Weddell Sea and the Haakon VII Sea to the east are likely to become high-risk areas for krill recruitment within a century. Furthermore, unless CO₂ emissions are mitigated, the Southern Ocean krill population could collapse by 2300 with dire consequences for the entire ecosystem.

Tony reflects

A minor incident, perhaps, but the photo was screaming out for enhancement.

People watching in central Greenland

My blog seems yet to have ever had a hit from Greenland, and I also spend much of this time of year looking at the Arctic sea ice melting around it.

So I was just now inspired to look for webcams from there, and found this one for Summit Station, a research station on the top of the central ice cap.  It looks very lonely there:

It also does indeed seem to be live and updating every few minutes. I spotted someone on the ice a few minutes ago, and he (or she) is not there now.  Oh - I just saw two people walking past.

I see that is summer and still - 12 degrees C.  Winter must be brisk!

Update:  the website I got the webcam from has a "users guide" for any researcher staying there.  Amongst other interesting things to learn are:

*  the cook has Sundays off, so everyone has to cook for themselves that day, or eat leftovers;
*  it has internet and phone service, but bandwidth is limited. (It seems their phone numbers are listed here, if anyone wants to Skype them.  I wonder if this is about the remotest place in the world one can ring and annoy with telemarketing?);
*  anyone abusing drugs or alcohol are on the next flight out;
* it's at an elevation of 10,500 feet:  altitude sickness can be a real problem for some.

By the way, it's now 2.30 am and the sun is out:

A good question

Are testicles external for cooling, galloping, display, or something else? - Slate Magazine

So there you go:  the reason most people believe - that it's for cooling - is actually much disputed from an evolutionary point of view, and has been for some time.

It's actually a well written,  fascinating story.

Anxiety rising in Abbott's office

I haven't seen it yet, but I take it that Tony Abbott got an aggressive interview with Chris Uhlmann last night.  I should watch it later today to see what I make of both of their performances.

Meantime, didn't I say last week that "new, improved Rudd", who I still say has taken lessons in apology from Peter Beattie, would be causing anxiety in Abbott's office?   With Newspoll showing it now 50/50, there is no doubt at all that I was right.

And all I can do from afar is laugh at people who comment and post at Catallaxy, who are stressing out about the Labor resurgence.  I share their puzzlement over Rudd's personal popularity (although, as I say, he is clearly performing cleverly at the moment and has learnt at least some political lessons over the last 3 years), but it's highly amusing when people from a site whose main unifying theme is "climate change is crap" start calling the Australian public idiots. 

Technological optimism

Once a Joke, Battery-Powered Airplanes Are Nearing Reality | MIT Technology Review

Electric hybrid planes, even of substantial size, may be in our future:

Several major corporations envision a future in which airplanes rely at least in part on electric propulsion. Although the technology will be applied to small planes at first, eventually it could help reduce noise and emissions from airliners.

“Within this decade, we will certainly see hybrid electric aircraft entering the market,” says Frank Anton, who heads the hybrid aircraft efforts at Siemens. Four-seat hybrid aircraft are likely within that time frame, he says, but even 19 seaters are possible before the decade is out. Anton predicts that eventually we will see 100-passenger hybrid aircraft that use half as much fuel as today’s airplanes.

Boeing is taking this a step further with a concept for hybrid airplanes the size of 737s, which can seat more than 150 passengers, although it’s unlikely these will come into service before 2030. EADS, the parent company of Airbus, has also developed a conceptual design for passenger airplanes that fly exclusively on electricity, although the range of these aircraft would be limited.

Cool.

Slippery Tony

Abbott repaid cost of 2009 book trips

So, Tony repaid monies for what was a private, book promoting trip back in 2009.

One gets the impression that such repayments are not all that uncommon amongst politicians, but it's still amusing to read:

Freedom of Information documents show Mr Abbott repaid the expenses in 2010, despite initially describing the allegations through a spokesman as ''a blatant attempt by Labor to smear and mislead''.

Mr Abbott made the trips in July and August 2009 - before he became Opposition Leader in November 2009 - to promote his book....

According to the documents released, Mr Abbott's chief of staff, Peta Credlin, wrote in October 2010 that the flights ''were inadvertently booked as official travel, rather than private''. ''I enclose a full repayment of all outstand- ing costs … amount $6255.49.''
In January 2011, Mr Gray wrote to Mr Abbott's office noting $3141.93 m

As it happens, I've been arguing at Club Troppo that while I agree that there is an element of dishonesty "baked into" politics, a Leader has less scope to get away with it than any other MP, and if they have a history of particular dishonesty, it's not unreasonable for this to reflect poorly on their suitability as leader.

There are pretty classic examples of spontaneous dishonesty in Abbott's past:  denying meeting George Pell, a Medicare promise made in circumstances it seems he knew it couldn't be kept, denial of the real circumstances of his involvement in funding of the Hanson case, and now this (which, I suppose, we cannot directly pin on him, but it's a bad look, especially in light of the Coalition licking its lips over former Abbott mate Peter Slipper facing charges over travel rorts.)

I'll keep saying it:  Abbott's not suited to the leadership.

Unusual art

The photo does not really do it justice, but I was a bit surprised to find this bit of sculpture (I suppose you call it) inside the Queensland Art Gallery today:

I am always impressed with the arts precinct at South Brisbane; every visitor to the city should allow a full day there.