Hugh White on defence spending

Defence challenge: reconciling Australia's warfare shopping list with reality

I knew it was probably all pie in the sky - the Abbott promise to increase Defence spending up to 2% of GDP.  Hugh White explains why:

Abbott has promised toincrease the defence budget, setting a target of 2 per cent of GDP by2024. That would be enough to cover all the current plans, but defence spending would have to grow at almost 5 per cent in real terms everyyear for a decade.

This would be unprecedented in peacetime. For example it is much faster than when the Howard government grew defence spending from 2000-2007, when fiscal and economic conditions were much rosier and the ADF was heavily committed to the war on terror. One wonders whether the Abbott government is really willing for Defence spending to grow so fast when it is cutting so hard everywhere else.

If not, then big savings will have to be found. And though efficiency campaigns and personnel cuts can deliver small savings, big savings only come from cutting big investment projects.

That puts the spotlight on four big new capabilities planned for the next decade. They are the new submarines, a new class of warships, a new fleet of armoured fighting vehicles for Army, and the F-35s. Without massive defence budget increases, at least one of these
projects will need to be scrapped or drastically scaled back if the government is to produce a financially credible defence policy.

 I say we keep the Army at home for a change, and put the money into the submarine program.

Getting both wetter and drier in India

Extremes in wet, dry spells increasing for South Asian monsoons

Ah, that old topic that climate change deniers can't get their brain around.  Yes, climate can get both wetter and drier (that is, more extremes of both can happen.)  It is apparently happening in parts of India, connected with the monsoon.  Is climate change the cause?  It's left as an open question, but you wouldn't be betting against a connection there.

But I use a deodorant...

The scent of a man: Mice and rats stressed by male experimenters

A rather surprising finding - just the smell of male experimenters causes a stress reaction in mice and rats in labs.  

Peter's list

I see that Peter Martin's list of hints as to what the Abbott could do regarding the Budget contains what I said in my post of a few weeks ago (keep the carbon tax, mining tax and raise the GST next election.)    He also notes that leaving the current carbon scheme in place is estimated to save the Budget $6 billion over four years.  That's pretty close to the money to be raised by the mooted "deficit levy", isn't it? 

I don't understand enough about superannuation and its tax treatment to follow the continual suggestions made to reform it.  It does seem there's significant room for movement there. 

Red alert at the IPA

Even while I have my doubts that the "deficit levy" is necessary or wise (as a lead up to a serious proposal to expand GST somewhat, and review some tax benefits which need cutting, it may be a reasonable step, I guess), it amuses me greatly to imagine the panic button being hit at the IPA that their hoped for pet government is even considering a new tax. Many phone calls are being made, I presume, although the attitude to the proposal by their major donors would be good to know. I mean, is reflexive opposition to all taxes written into the IPA's constitution, or does it depend on what their current major donor thinks? The first IPA attempt at pushback appears at the AFR this morning, apparently. It's boring and predictable.

Postscript:   why aren't any economics commentators making the point about the pain to the budget bottom line that abolishing the carbon tax and replacing it with Direct Action  involves?  I bet some people at least would prefer to have no levy and a carbon price.

Also - it is completely unpredictable what will happen with populist, but ignorant, crazy man Clive controlling the Senate.  You never know - sometimes you end up with compromises that are better than the government's original deal - but I sure don't feel confident with Clive (and anyone who would follow him) in effective control the Senate.

The sooner the Palmer Party fractures, the better.  Not that it will improve certainty in the short term, but it would make them unelectable next election.

Update:  much amusement to be had watching the rending of clothes happening at Catallaxy threads like this one, too.  Boys and girls, you conned yourselves into thinking the carbon pricing scheme and mining tax were ruining the country, despite no convincing evidence.   You wanted a populist PM who would promise to remove them, forgetting perhaps that this was leaving a multi billion dollar hole in the coming budgets at a time a deficit needed to be addressed, hey?  Your IPA inspired list of things the government should stop paying for is a just a dream people will not vote for - witness the 1.8% of the vote the party most committed to small government got in the WA election.  So reap what you sow in terms of increased taxes from elsewhere, buddies.

Update 2:   Ahah - here comes the media release, this time from Julie Novak arguing that:

 ... the proposed deficit levy sends the signal the government wants to punish people who work hard to improve the living standards of themselves and their families....

Those on higher incomes in the PAYG system already bear the brunt of the income tax burden, with more than 60% of net income tax paid by individuals earning over $80,000 each year.

 Ah, so it will hurt the "aspirational".  Funnily enough, remember just a couple of weeks ago Julie was complaining about increasing the GST would disproportionately hurt the poor.

It would simplify things greatly if the IPA would just release press releases saying "new taxes? - of course we always oppose them, for whatever reason strikes our fancy at the time."

It's all rather complicated..

Orthodox, celibate, gay and that's OK | David Benkof | Ops & Blogs | The Times of Israel

Gee.  Via First Things, I found this long column by a gay, celibate Orthodox Jew all about how he disagrees with some opinion within Orthodox circles that celibacy is not really a reasonable option to expect of gay men.

The variety of opinion within Judaism appears quite vast, including within the Orthodox branch.

Here's a particularly unusual part of the column (with frum meaning traditionally observant, as explained near the start of the article):

So what should a frum gay man who simply cannot achieve celibacy do? Actually, our tradition has addressed such questions. In the Gemara (Masechet Moed Katan 17a), Rabbi Il’ai states that if a man’s urges to see a prostitute overcome him, he should wear black, go to a place where he’s anonymous, and do what he must – so there’s no chilul Hashem (desecration of God’s name). That teaching shouldn’t be taken as a literal prescription for gay men looking for a legitimate sexual outlet. But it shows that the Torah doesn’t consider sexual behavior to be “all or nothing,” and that Jews should seek to attenuate sexual transgressions.

Indeed, there are vastly more possibilities than the three choices many Orthodox gay men describe: promiscuity, partnered sex, and total celibacy. Every frum gay man should
seek rabbinic counsel before determining his approach to private behavior. But here’s an example of something for which a gay man might request a heter: hiring a professional, straight, non-erotic massage therapist in order to experience occasional male touch. It’s not ideal because it could lead to arousal, but it’s definitely better than actual sexual encounters – whether with a life partner or a stranger.

Speaking of which, should a gay guy who feels he cannot remain celibate choose a private, exclusive bond with one man over occasional, discreet hookups with strangers? It probably depends on what “a private, exclusive bond” and “occasional, discreet hookups” mean. Such topics are precisely why Orthodox Jews go to their rabbis for
halachic advice.

Catholic reasoning gets exceptionally detailed in terms of what straight sex can involve (people don't realise this, I am sure, because nearly all priests have given up as a lost cause any attempt to actually try to spell out the details.  Given nearly all of the laity think Catholic teaching on contraception makes no sense, they have good reason not to discuss the other details of married sex.)   But what Catholic reasoning tends not to get into is the preferable ways to sin sexually if you really have to.  That's what makes these paragraphs sound odd.

Actually, it has also just occurred to me that the entire column doesn't mention masturbation, which seems a bit of an oversight if one is considering in nitty gritty detail what gay men can be (more or less) excused for doing.  Are rabbis just too queasy about that topic?  (Well, it's not as if there is much Christian discussion of that topic either - and it is probably fair to say that if want a religion where you'll find someone who'll excuse it for men, Islam is probably number one.  Of course, some Islamic analysis even allows for temporary marriages for travelling husbands too, which is perhaps the most flexible religious attitude for men wanting sex "legitimately" that has ever been devised.)

Anyhow, it shows again the extensive reconsideration going on across many religions about how to view homosexuality.

Update: it has also occurred to me that this sort of topic used to be the favourite one of conservative but gay Catholic blogger John Heard at his Dreadnought blog.  He always used to argue that Catholic insistence on celibacy for gay folk was not cruel.   Googling him this morning, I see that he has changed his mind on legal gay civil marriage - he now supports it. As I say, changes are happening across the board.

Camille really knows how to praise alcohol

Camille Paglia has an opinion piece in Time arguing that the US drinking age of 21 needs to be dropped to 18, and in the course of the argument, makes many points I have when comparing drinking to marijuana:

Alcohol relaxes, facilitates interaction, inspires ideas and promotes humor and hilarity. Used in moderation, it is quickly flushed from the system, with excess punished by a hangover. But deadening pills, such as today’s massively overprescribed antidepressants, linger in body and brain and may have unrecognized long-term side effects. Those toxic chemicals, often manufactured by shadowy firms abroad, have been worrisomely present in a recent uptick of unexplained suicides and massacres. Half of the urban professional class in the U.S. seems doped on meds these days.

As a libertarian, I support the decriminalization of marijuana, but there are many problems with pot. From my observation, pot may be great for jazz musicians and Beat poets, but it saps energy and willpower and can produce physiological feminization in men. Also, it is difficult to measure the potency of plant-derived substances like pot. With brand-name beer or liquor, however, purchased doses have exactly the same strength and purity from one continent to another, with no fear of contamination by dangerous street additives like PCP.

Exhilaration, ecstasy and communal vision are the gifts of Dionysus, god of wine. Alcohol’s enhancement of direct face-to-face dialogue is precisely what is needed by today’s technologically agile generation, magically interconnected yet strangely isolated by social media. Clumsy hardcore sexting has sadly supplanted simple hanging out over a beer at a buzzing dive. By undermining the art of conversation, the age-21 law has also had a disastrous effect on our arts and letters, with their increasing dullness and mediocrity. This tyrannical infantilizing of young Americans must stop!

 Maybe she goes a bit over the top, but I generally agree.  (Except with the decriminalising bit!)

Can't get enough Piketty

Piketty's "Capital," in a Lot Less than 696 Pages - Justin Fox - Harvard Business Review

I like this summary of the book.  In particular, it makes the same point that this article in Slate did - Piketty's approach is refreshingly evidence driven. (Apparently.)

So, being No 1 on the ticket wasn't why people voted LDP, hey?

I've been meaning to rub this in for a while.

The Liberal Democrat Party got a Senator (and one with a fairly high profile, as small party candidates go) in New South Wales when it got 9.5% of the vote.

Anyone inclined to argue that it was because people are warming to "small government" policies, and not because it ended up as effectively "first" on the ballot paper and had "Liberal" in its name never really had any credibility if one cared to look at the vote in the other States.

But given Leyonhjelm has had a fair bit of media exposure since his surprise win, how did the party fare in the Western Australian election?   Here we go:  1.82% of the vote, just beating the Australian Christians at 1.54%.

I think we can safely say there is no inherent electoral fondness for this party in Australia.

Just plain nuts

A journalist/writer for Esquire was at the Bundy ranch noting what the nutters (including Bundy himself) were saying, even before he gave the world his negro analysis. 

I see looking around the net that there is in fact an anti Hannity/Fox backlash who are upset at the way Bundy was dumped by the network.   The right wing nut-o-sphere is going to be very active this week in attacking Fox (and even Glenn Beck, who never thought Bundy's cause was just in the first place.)

Changing attitudes in Japan

First lady Akie Abe joins gay parade in Shibuya | The Japan Times

I didn't know they had gay parades in Tokyo, but it seems surprising that the wife of the PM had attended.

My impression is that the Japanese sort of ignore homosexuality, rather than actively discriminate against it, but I could be wrong.

While I'm praising the Weekly Standard...

...I will go on to note that they have an article arguing (with several points I had not heard before) against the "inevitable" movement towards marijuana legalisation in the US.

I would not mind betting that there is something of a push back against this policy in those States that do legalise it, perhaps within 3 to 5 years.

A Marx wannabe?

I've noted before that Henry Ergas physically reminds me of Groucho Marx.  I think he's now trying to emulate him (unsuccessfully) in other ways, too. (If you imagine this dire piece of writing set to music, perhaps.)

Such is the standard of right wing economic analysis these days, eh? 

The one right wing outlet that got it right

Uncivil Disobedience | The Weekly Standard

Several commentators are noting that The Weekly Standard called out Bundy and his supporters in very clear terms even before he made his "negro" commentary.

Some congratulations are in order for a small segment of the American Right, then.

Harsh, but probably fair

Climbing Everest is the peak of hubris | Tanya Gold | Comment is free | The Guardian

Inconsistency ignored

I suppose I can't complain too much, as I suspect that Australia can get by with a lot less than 72 of the JSFs.  But I didn't realise that blustering defence minister David Johnston has not been questioned by any journalist about his change of heart:

Why, then, didn't the RAAF get a boost from the heroic Liberal Government working tirelessly to redress the legion funding injustices rendered unto Defence by Labor? Dating back to 2009, Defence Minister David Johnston made clear that he thought an order for 72 a copout, complaining on November 26 of that year that "The 2009 Defence White Paper had outlined the purchase of 100 Joint Strike Fighters but the Rudd government will now only commit to a maximum of 72, with the rest to be considered 'at a later date'." 

Last year, Johnston was crystal clear in saying he thought a JSF order of less than 100 was a sign of incompetence, a broken promise, a number the Coalition supported. What's changed?

While talk is cheap - and fighter jets aren't - my takeaway from this is that a government of no surprises and no excuses surprised no observers by breaking a promise to sharply increase spending here, and didn't really offer an excuse. Seen through the prism of mooted pension and Medicare cuts, this might seem odd - but the Coalition relies on a quaint presumption that it's stronger on defence for little other reason than they say so.

Annoying leftisms noted

I don't care much for Bill Maher, but at least I give him credit for openly admitting that politically correct Leftisms can be really annoying and over the top.  His conclusion, though, is valid.  Watch the video here.

And you might also want to watch him on the Bundy matter, from whom right wingers are now running with great speed.

Sunday bug

Not a perfect shot, but it kept moving, dang it:

Saturday paper

Some weekends, the Saturday Sydney Morning Herald just seems to hit all the right notes.

I see that Mark Dapin has started writing for Good Weekend again.  He's the sort of bloke with whom I think I would have little in the way of common topics to talk about over a beer, but I have always enjoyed his wry, self deprecating writing style.  Take today's column, for example.  I found it particularly interesting for the mention of the "I'm not really dead, it's all a mistake" dreams after his grandfather died, since I had many of them myself after my father died.   As I think I have written before in this blog, they seem to be particularly relevant to how a certain resurrection story recently commemorated around the world may have been created; but then again, if lots of people have experienced parents dying young, as they often did back then, why wouldn't skeptics be saying  "don't be daft, you've just had the generic grief dream that we've all had when Pop died."   (I wonder if Mel Gibson knows how that translate that into Aramaic.)

One other writer who has started appearing regularly in Good Weekend is Benjamin Law.  Look, when he's talking about himself he can come across as too gay-ly self absorbed, but he does win me over with his cheeriness and (again) a large dollop of self deprecation.  He appears to enjoy good relations with his Asian family, despite his sexuality.   Here are his comments today about the weird reluctance of the Australian hotel industry to embrace wi fi.   He is, generally, I think, another good writer.

Speaking of self deprecation, Richard Glover reminds us (it's certainly not an original thought) that Australia loves a loser.  But, like him, I think it an endearing part of the national identity rather than a problem. 

As for straight journalism, David Wroe writes that one advantage of the JSF purchase is that it will boost local high tech manufacturing.   This is a not insignificant point, given what's happened to the car industry:

Some $335 million in manufacturing work has already gone to Australian firms and it is hoped this will rise to $1.5 billion. All up, including servicing and support over coming decades, the government says business opportunity could reach $7.5 billion. It will not replace the car industry, but it is high-tech work and a green shoot in manufacturing.

But those opportunities depend on our buying a decent number of the fighters, also called the F-35 Lightning II, from the US. The original expectation was for 100 aircraft. The Abbott government's announcement this week takes Australia's commitment to 72 - and possibly up to 24 more when the current Super Hornet is ready for retirement from 2030 onward.

I don't know enough to say how few fighter jets one can realistically purchase to have a viable set up of local maintenance and training, but given we virtually never use fighters for anything resembling real warfare, my inclination would be to keep that number as low as possible.  I suspect we could get by with many fewer than 72, though.   In the 50's would be my guess.

Update:  I forgot to add - Bob Ellis reviews Bob Carr's book (favourably, of course) but I can't find a link to it.  I also was interested in this article about the author Stefan Zweig, who Wes Anderson said "inspired" (very loosely, apparently) The Grand Budapest Hotel.

For Anzac Day

I noted here a couple of month ago how very, very impressed I was with the Australian War Memorial, after visiting it last Christmas for the first time in perhaps 25 years.

I hadn't looked at its presence on the 'net til today though.  It looks like its loaded with good stuff.   It is probably the only government website in existence that would be popular with all Australians of all political persuasions.  (Well, not entirely sure about some Greens..)

Lets's look at a digitised official war diary at random...

Here's one talking about the return to Australia by No 16 Quota AIF in 1919.  A pretty happy diary, given they were returning.  I see that a heck of a lot of time in camp and on the ship was spent in organised sport:  a good thing I wasn't there, then.

I also see that before they left England it was Anzac Day and there is reference to a march - I wouldn't have thought it was even recognised in 1919, but there you go.  The diary entry notes:

 "ANZAC DAY as far as possible observed as a holiday for all men remaining in camp."

Apart from the relentless number of sporting competitions organised,  there are many concerts mentioned, even a "fancy dress promenade and ball" on the ship which was pronounced to be one of the most successful events of the trip.   I can't quite work out if women were involved, however.  I think there is earlier mention of nursing sisters, but I don't think many, and one would imagine they would be kept far apart...

They weren't allowed to get off at Port Said.  The reason - naughty soldiers that were there before them:

"I consider that the troops of the Wyreema should be punished by the fact of their larrikinism at Port Said being put before the Public in some tangible form such as the press pointing out the effect it had on all subsequent Australian troops being treated as social outcasts at the ports of call en route to Australia".

The trip met some very hot weather after that - so much so that the ship's chef died of heatstroke and was buried at sea.  Later, another person died of appendicitis.

They were allowed ashore at Colombo (just for the day, not overnight.)  The next morning:

"A parade and roll call this morning disclosed the somewhat surprising fact that there were none missing"

The actual arrival home is not described in much detail.  One other odd thing - there is mention of men getting "inoculation anti-influenza".  With what, I wonder?

Anyway, just one glimpse of war time life from a random diary...