One of the report’s most striking findings concerned the rising frequency
of torrential rains. Scientists have expected this effect for decades
because more water is evaporating from a warming ocean surface, and the
warmer atmosphere can hold the excess vapor, which then falls as rain or
snow. But even the leading experts have been surprised by the extent of
the changes.
Thursday, May 08, 2014
Keep up the good work, Niki
Niki Savva is keeping up the leaks on how Peta Credlin is unpopular with many in the government. She (Savva) also makes the PM's office sound remarkably like the protective circle that existed around the Rudd Prime Ministership, version 1:
Early signs of a one term PM, if not government
OK, OK, it is (to be honest) way too early to making any call on the fate of the Abbott government at the next election (there is, for one thing, the completely unpredictable role mad Clive Palmer and his Senators may play in what can be done with the budget anyway), but apart from the general appallingly ham fisted way he has handled the kite flying exercise of possible budget measures, there are a couple of things which I expect really would kill Abbott's prospects:
a. any significant increase in fuel excise will be wildly unpopular with the middle class, and the argument that the "rich" are also contributing by facing a tax levy will not work if it kicks in at too high a level (say $150,000).
b. Christopher Pyne's sudden enthusiasm for deregulating university fees, if enacted, will guarantee no one under 35 will vote the Coalition for the next decade. A fair few parents of high school students will also be upset, if not parents of those already at university.
The Abbott program never made sense - that his revenue measures (no new taxes except for the one needed for his parental leave plan which is only supported by a handful of voters; giving up revenue from the carbon "tax" and mining tax) and his savings measures (to come from spending cuts, but won't cut pensions, defence - in fact will increase defence spending, Gonski or disability spending, and will deal with carbon dioxide by spending rather than collecting money) would succeed in a budget surplus.
It is only now that voters are realising it.
The tragedy is that the internal Labor war over its disastrous appointment of Kevin Rudd into the leadership (back in 2007, I mean) prevented it from being able to sell the message.
PS: I think Mumbles is probably right when he says this:
What I think Mumbles is overlooking is that it is not in isolation; it has to be sold in the context of how much pain is coming to the middle income earners. If they are hit too hard, they will not care much that a group of people who can afford a tax levy are also paying more. And the higher you set the cut off for it, the less relevant it becomes on equity grounds, from a middle class point of view.
This is where Labor will need to be careful with its messaging - it needs to make it clear that they are opposing the Budget approach looking at it as a whole.
a. any significant increase in fuel excise will be wildly unpopular with the middle class, and the argument that the "rich" are also contributing by facing a tax levy will not work if it kicks in at too high a level (say $150,000).
b. Christopher Pyne's sudden enthusiasm for deregulating university fees, if enacted, will guarantee no one under 35 will vote the Coalition for the next decade. A fair few parents of high school students will also be upset, if not parents of those already at university.
The Abbott program never made sense - that his revenue measures (no new taxes except for the one needed for his parental leave plan which is only supported by a handful of voters; giving up revenue from the carbon "tax" and mining tax) and his savings measures (to come from spending cuts, but won't cut pensions, defence - in fact will increase defence spending, Gonski or disability spending, and will deal with carbon dioxide by spending rather than collecting money) would succeed in a budget surplus.
It is only now that voters are realising it.
The tragedy is that the internal Labor war over its disastrous appointment of Kevin Rudd into the leadership (back in 2007, I mean) prevented it from being able to sell the message.
PS: I think Mumbles is probably right when he says this:
Latest reports suggest the “deficit levy” will cut in at salaries over $100 thousand a year, perhaps as high as $150 thousand. Anyone who believes this will infuriate most Australians, either because they instinctively loathe taxes or because they are shocked at the broken promise, needs to get out from behind their desk a bit more.In other words, the government can probably successfully argue for it on equity grounds, at least if it were being argued in isolation. (And Labor has to be careful here that they do not appear to be defending the rich when they oppose it.)
Mosey out of the think tank, take a walk in the park.
What I think Mumbles is overlooking is that it is not in isolation; it has to be sold in the context of how much pain is coming to the middle income earners. If they are hit too hard, they will not care much that a group of people who can afford a tax levy are also paying more. And the higher you set the cut off for it, the less relevant it becomes on equity grounds, from a middle class point of view.
This is where Labor will need to be careful with its messaging - it needs to make it clear that they are opposing the Budget approach looking at it as a whole.
Wednesday, May 07, 2014
More intense rains noted, again
Climate Change Study Finds U.S. Is Already Widely Affected - NYTimes.com
I see from this US report that changes in rainfall intensity seem to be already clear in parts of the US:
I see from this US report that changes in rainfall intensity seem to be already clear in parts of the US:
The report found that the eastern half of the country is receiving more
precipitation in general. And over the past half-century, the proportion
of precipitation that is falling in very heavy rain events has jumped
by 71 percent in the Northeast, by 37 percent in the Midwest and by 27
percent in the Southeast, the report found.“It’s a big change,” said Radley M. Horton, a climate scientist at Columbia
University who helped write the report. He added that scientists do not
fully understand the regional variations.In recent years, sudden, intense rains have caused extensive damage.
A very, very hopeless place
If you missed it, and want to feel deeply pessimistic about Afghanistan, watch last night's Foreign Correspondent.
It remains, as it seems to have always been, an awful, hopeless country.
It remains, as it seems to have always been, an awful, hopeless country.
How I have come to view economists, by reference to the cultural greats....
PS: if anyone thinks I am being unfair, this is Curly on TV last night:
Politicians, who are the people who got us into this budget problem in the first place, should have the kind of incentives to get us out of this problem.I might go along with it if it was also the rule that economics professors who warn that stagflation is a real and present danger take a 50% drop in income (til it does arrive) if it hasn't yet arrived within 3 years of the warning.
And, for example, you could have a rule whereby while the budget is in deficit that their salaries get cut by 50 per cent and they remain at that level until the budget is back into surplus.
Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Interdimensional tales
The tales are not particularly "creepy", but they are new and somewhat interesting, if one has an interest in science fiction ideas for stories.
It does make me think that the genre of interdimensional travel has been little explored in science fiction movies. (It has had a much better run in books.)
Sure, time travel has been done to death, and sometimes that has a "many worlds element", but just straightforward stories of movement between parallel worlds - can't think of many. Possible exception - sorta - Source Code (which I liked), but it only becomes clearly an element towards the end. The only other one coming to mind is, of course, The Adventures of Buckaroo Banzai Across the 8th Dimension, but it was not a major element, if I recall correctly.
(Oh - I should say that I was pleased that Indian Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - about the most unduly over-derided movie of the last decade - had aliens as interdimensional travellers, as that is pretty much the preferred way that Fortean types like to think of UFO's now. Spielberg had updated his view of UFOs appropriately.)
It does make me think that the genre of interdimensional travel has been little explored in science fiction movies. (It has had a much better run in books.)
Sure, time travel has been done to death, and sometimes that has a "many worlds element", but just straightforward stories of movement between parallel worlds - can't think of many. Possible exception - sorta - Source Code (which I liked), but it only becomes clearly an element towards the end. The only other one coming to mind is, of course, The Adventures of Buckaroo Banzai Across the 8th Dimension, but it was not a major element, if I recall correctly.
(Oh - I should say that I was pleased that Indian Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - about the most unduly over-derided movie of the last decade - had aliens as interdimensional travellers, as that is pretty much the preferred way that Fortean types like to think of UFO's now. Spielberg had updated his view of UFOs appropriately.)
The proposition: glass being half empty means it is not half full
I see that Sinclair Davidson has been graphing again, this time showing Commonwealth spending and revenue as a percentage of GDP.
I would have thought most people looking at the graph would say that it shows revenue and spending over the last 40 years bounces around between a pretty narrow range of about 22 to 27%. Periods under both Labor and Liberal governments have seen revenues below spending, and spending below revenues (when measured this way).
The period post the GFC, shows the government spending increasing, and the dramatic drop below the decade of high revenue enjoyed by the Howard government. It seems a pretty fair guess that if Rudd did not make the GFC stimulus spending (as widely supported by most economists and supported up to a point by the Coalition), and if Howard era revenues had continued (or even decreased more moderately) there would have not have been any budgetary problem at all.
Yet Davidson insists that the only way to interpret this is that spending is the problem. His attitude seems to be "no, if I say a glass is half empty, it is impossible to assert that it is half full." The large drop in revenue to far below a decade long average is supposed to be something to be ignored, presumably.
He also gives the impression that he thinks turning government spending on or off is a simple thing, like turning on or off a tap - ignoring that people and companies make plans around government spending programs, and suffer disruption if they are too abruptly changed. It further seems a feature of Right wing criticisms of Labor that they (and Treasury) are supposed to foresee sudden international financial crises and have a good idea of how much they may abruptly affect revenue.
On a related matter, Koukoulus has been running an interesting argument that if you add both government spending and revenue, it gives you a reasonable metric by which to judge "size of government":
But let's face it, if your libertarian inspired ideological approach is that government should be small, and increased taxes are always bad, and that Keynesian policies are mistaken, you're never going to have anything much new to say about Australian government policy other than "spending is the problem."
Update: I see that Greg Jericho tweeted today a graph that shows in a clearer way the drop in revenue:
All the more to show the ludicrousness of insisting that spending is the only problem.
I would have thought most people looking at the graph would say that it shows revenue and spending over the last 40 years bounces around between a pretty narrow range of about 22 to 27%. Periods under both Labor and Liberal governments have seen revenues below spending, and spending below revenues (when measured this way).
The period post the GFC, shows the government spending increasing, and the dramatic drop below the decade of high revenue enjoyed by the Howard government. It seems a pretty fair guess that if Rudd did not make the GFC stimulus spending (as widely supported by most economists and supported up to a point by the Coalition), and if Howard era revenues had continued (or even decreased more moderately) there would have not have been any budgetary problem at all.
Yet Davidson insists that the only way to interpret this is that spending is the problem. His attitude seems to be "no, if I say a glass is half empty, it is impossible to assert that it is half full." The large drop in revenue to far below a decade long average is supposed to be something to be ignored, presumably.
He also gives the impression that he thinks turning government spending on or off is a simple thing, like turning on or off a tap - ignoring that people and companies make plans around government spending programs, and suffer disruption if they are too abruptly changed. It further seems a feature of Right wing criticisms of Labor that they (and Treasury) are supposed to foresee sudden international financial crises and have a good idea of how much they may abruptly affect revenue.
On a related matter, Koukoulus has been running an interesting argument that if you add both government spending and revenue, it gives you a reasonable metric by which to judge "size of government":
one way is to look at the sum of Commonwealth revenue and spending as a share of GDP. This means that the more the government raises in tax and then recycles into the economy via spending, the bigger the footprint of government on the economy, and vice versa.Seems a not unreasonable way of looking at it.
Makes sense?
A quick look at the size of government, on this measure, reveals some startling facts. I repeat facts based on data in Mr Hockey's Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook document.
Under the Rudd and Gillard governments, the average size of government was 47.4% of GDP.
The Howard government size of government was 49.2% of GDP.
But let's face it, if your libertarian inspired ideological approach is that government should be small, and increased taxes are always bad, and that Keynesian policies are mistaken, you're never going to have anything much new to say about Australian government policy other than "spending is the problem."
Update: I see that Greg Jericho tweeted today a graph that shows in a clearer way the drop in revenue:
All the more to show the ludicrousness of insisting that spending is the only problem.
Now they decide it's a bad idea
What do you know - there are two men with experience in the field who now have some regrets about where the "anything goes" approach to modern reproduction leads us:
Exhibit A: not so well known actor Jason Patric, who is having a court brawl (and waging a PR campaign) regarding his rights to have a relationship with his biological son. Yeah, he was happy enough to give a long term on again, off again girlfriend a sperm donation (delivered via artificial insemination, though - really, why did they bother with that if they had been long term lovers before - oh that's right, that would be too much like how babies are made by nature) and all was well for the first couple of years when he did see his son. Then they stopped being friends and he was told to shove off. It seems the laws designed to stop genuine anonymous sperm donors from interfering with parental "rights" are being used against Mr Patric. This probably seems unfair to most people - when what they should be objecting to is people making babies in such a manner way in the first place.
Exhibit B: reproductive technology cheer leader Robert Winston now is having misgivings about rich people soon making "designer babies". What, he's only got around to watching Gattaca now? Bit slow on the uptake, you "lesbians using reproductive technology is fine because they'll probably make fantastic mothers" claiming populariser of making babies in a way none at all would have existed before.
Exhibit A: not so well known actor Jason Patric, who is having a court brawl (and waging a PR campaign) regarding his rights to have a relationship with his biological son. Yeah, he was happy enough to give a long term on again, off again girlfriend a sperm donation (delivered via artificial insemination, though - really, why did they bother with that if they had been long term lovers before - oh that's right, that would be too much like how babies are made by nature) and all was well for the first couple of years when he did see his son. Then they stopped being friends and he was told to shove off. It seems the laws designed to stop genuine anonymous sperm donors from interfering with parental "rights" are being used against Mr Patric. This probably seems unfair to most people - when what they should be objecting to is people making babies in such a manner way in the first place.
Exhibit B: reproductive technology cheer leader Robert Winston now is having misgivings about rich people soon making "designer babies". What, he's only got around to watching Gattaca now? Bit slow on the uptake, you "lesbians using reproductive technology is fine because they'll probably make fantastic mothers" claiming populariser of making babies in a way none at all would have existed before.
Monday, May 05, 2014
I didn't know that Cardwell grows nuts
So I'm being disparaging of people who claim UFO encounters, and who had a meeting up in Cardwell, North Queensland, last weekend.
But honestly, when you read their stories and look at the photos, I'm not convinced there will be a second Cardwell UFO Festival any time soon.
But honestly, when you read their stories and look at the photos, I'm not convinced there will be a second Cardwell UFO Festival any time soon.
Space bugs
Space Station research shows that hardy little space travelers could colonize Mars
They've been exposing various microscopic lifeforms to the space environment at the ISS for some time now, and yes, some bugs have survived and are obviously very hard to kill.
I was wondering yesterday, on a related topic, as I made my first batch of "no knead" bread, about how much research has gone into the possibility that space radiation may make a normally mild natured (so to speak) microscopic lifeform into one that was dangerous. As I was dealing with yeast, which is pretty much wandering all about the place all the time, that was the microscopic life that I was thinking about in particular.
Remember the story about the Texan man who by some fluke had a permanent colony of yeast in his gut that was brewing alcohol inside of him? Well, you would hope that no future Moon or Mars colony ended up with at souped up yeast version which could take up home in everyone's gut and prove very difficult to remove. It would be a particularly ignoble way for a colony to collapse (pretty much from unintentional alcoholic poisoning), wouldn't it?
OK, so maybe it's not a big enough premise for a science fiction blockbuster, but a short story at least...
They've been exposing various microscopic lifeforms to the space environment at the ISS for some time now, and yes, some bugs have survived and are obviously very hard to kill.
I was wondering yesterday, on a related topic, as I made my first batch of "no knead" bread, about how much research has gone into the possibility that space radiation may make a normally mild natured (so to speak) microscopic lifeform into one that was dangerous. As I was dealing with yeast, which is pretty much wandering all about the place all the time, that was the microscopic life that I was thinking about in particular.
Remember the story about the Texan man who by some fluke had a permanent colony of yeast in his gut that was brewing alcohol inside of him? Well, you would hope that no future Moon or Mars colony ended up with at souped up yeast version which could take up home in everyone's gut and prove very difficult to remove. It would be a particularly ignoble way for a colony to collapse (pretty much from unintentional alcoholic poisoning), wouldn't it?
OK, so maybe it's not a big enough premise for a science fiction blockbuster, but a short story at least...
Commission of Audit examined
What a great knock down of several of the Commission of Audit's key proposals by Greg Jericho. His final paragraphs I would count as "tough but fair":
It would be nice to think this dopey regurgitation of libertarian masturbatory fantasy will be put to one side.
In the past, sensible heads would have prevailed. Many of the recommendations are similar to those in the 1996 commission of audit. A report John Howard largely ignored, and yet bizarrely Australia was able to continue to grow for another 18 years straight. But this government is too full of those who actually believe in this idiotic ideological view of the world – where “reform” is a synonym for “cut”, and ideology trumps evidence. And for them, the budget is just a first step to achieving it.
Nauseating idiots
Death threats stop gun store from selling 'smart' gun. Why? - CSMonitor.com
Read with amazement how the nauseating gun lobby in the US (or a large part of it) opposes the sale of "smart" guns that have the potential to reduce accidental gun deaths and injury, as well as their use when stolen.
Read with amazement how the nauseating gun lobby in the US (or a large part of it) opposes the sale of "smart" guns that have the potential to reduce accidental gun deaths and injury, as well as their use when stolen.
Religion reconsidering that topic, continued
I've been doing posts about the religious reconsideration of homosexuality for a while now, and here's another report directly on the topic by Slate's William Saletan. Slate also has up the story that (retired) bishop Gene Robinson is getting divorced from his gay partner. (I half suspect that when there are some high profile, and bitterly contested, gay divorces, this will have an effect on the number of people taking it up - not that there are that many getting married anyway, I think.)
Someone at First Things blog seems to have an interest in the topic too, as they have a link up to a blog run by a couple of Christian women who are a some sort of relationship, describing themselves as: "a celibate, LGBT couple with a queer calling." Odd.
Someone at First Things blog seems to have an interest in the topic too, as they have a link up to a blog run by a couple of Christian women who are a some sort of relationship, describing themselves as: "a celibate, LGBT couple with a queer calling." Odd.
Giant statues photographed
Fabrice Fouillet photographs giant monuments in his series, “Colosses.” (PHOTOS.)
Giant statues are nearly always very impressive and awesome, if you ask me, and this series of photos shows one or two from around the world that I haven't seen before. (I've also been inside the very first one in the series in Japan!)
Giant statues are nearly always very impressive and awesome, if you ask me, and this series of photos shows one or two from around the world that I haven't seen before. (I've also been inside the very first one in the series in Japan!)
TIAs discussed
My husband Andrew Marr missed the warning signs of his stroke. Don't let it happen to you | Life | The Guardian
This is quite a good article warning people not to miss the signs of a TIA (or mini stroke.)
My Mum had some many years ago - perhaps 15 to 20 years - but I think they mainly manifested as a funny sensation on her lip and/or the end of her tongue. She went on medication and was fine for many years afterwards.
This is quite a good article warning people not to miss the signs of a TIA (or mini stroke.)
My Mum had some many years ago - perhaps 15 to 20 years - but I think they mainly manifested as a funny sensation on her lip and/or the end of her tongue. She went on medication and was fine for many years afterwards.
Sunday, May 04, 2014
Spending and revenue
It's the debt, not the spending: why the budget is bleeding
Peter Martin's column above contains these useful figures:
With respect to looking at it compared to GDP, I see that even last week's National Commission of Audit report - with as fine a Right wing pedigree as one could expect when appointed by a Coalition government - contains the graphs which put in clear perspective the "it's all Labor's overspending" line.
First: Chart 4.1 in the report - Commonwealth spending as a share of GDP
Second: Chart 4.2 - Commonwealth taxes as a share of GDP
Labor governments that spend and tax like there is no tomorrow? Hardly.
* I note a guest speaker was notorious climate change denying Patrick Michaels - anti tax libertarians (with few exceptions) must attack climate change as not really being a problem because the most sensible policy to address is a tax. Eek - a tax!
Peter Martin's column above contains these useful figures:
Two years beforehand in 2010-11, Treasury forecast revenue equal to 24.1 per centSmall government ideologues, who have been entertaining themselves at some "We Hate Tax" love in this weekend*, like to concentrate on absolute figures for spending and revenue rather than "relative to GDP" figures. Unless someone cares to correct me, I take it that this is done as spin to try to portray spending as being out of control by ignoring factors that indicate why government spending would have some "natural" growth over the years.
of gross domestic product by 2012-13. It was a low forecast by the standards of the previous Howard government. But what the Gillard government got was 23.1 per cent of GDP, billions of dollars less.
By a staggering coincidence, government spending that year amounted to exactly 24.1 per cent of GDP, precisely the same figure as the revenue it had expected to get.
If revenue had rolled in as expected, the past financial year’s budget wouldn’t be in deficit in all. Wayne Swan would be crowing about his success in eliminating the deficit on time, as promised.
No one is too sure where the revenue has gone. It’s a murder mystery with multiple suspects.
With respect to looking at it compared to GDP, I see that even last week's National Commission of Audit report - with as fine a Right wing pedigree as one could expect when appointed by a Coalition government - contains the graphs which put in clear perspective the "it's all Labor's overspending" line.
First: Chart 4.1 in the report - Commonwealth spending as a share of GDP
Second: Chart 4.2 - Commonwealth taxes as a share of GDP
Labor governments that spend and tax like there is no tomorrow? Hardly.
* I note a guest speaker was notorious climate change denying Patrick Michaels - anti tax libertarians (with few exceptions) must attack climate change as not really being a problem because the most sensible policy to address is a tax. Eek - a tax!
Saturday, May 03, 2014
Was never at risk of participating
Another Solid Reason Not to Do a Mud-Obstacle Run - James Hamblin - The Atlantic
Oh.
Apparently, there's been a growing fad for people to do staged, obstacle littered, endurance runs in America and elsewhere, involving things like mud courses, frigid water swims, etc.
This trend had escaped my attention. The article notes that doing the mud courses is a pretty good way to get diarrhoea.
I've never been sure why people can't enough satisfaction from merely sharing things like a long bushwalk, a bottle of wine with some cheese and bread, and a nice bed.
PS: my challenge for the weekend is making my own bread. A "no knead" recipe published a few years ago in the US seems to have been very popular there, and recently came to my attention via my Zite account. The dough is made, and will be baked tomorrow.
Oh.
Apparently, there's been a growing fad for people to do staged, obstacle littered, endurance runs in America and elsewhere, involving things like mud courses, frigid water swims, etc.
This trend had escaped my attention. The article notes that doing the mud courses is a pretty good way to get diarrhoea.
I've never been sure why people can't enough satisfaction from merely sharing things like a long bushwalk, a bottle of wine with some cheese and bread, and a nice bed.
PS: my challenge for the weekend is making my own bread. A "no knead" recipe published a few years ago in the US seems to have been very popular there, and recently came to my attention via my Zite account. The dough is made, and will be baked tomorrow.
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