A bunch of studies American's don't believe

Good guy with a gun myth: Guns increase the risk of homicide, accidents, suicide.

The most surprising thing, as this article points out early, is that a significant majority of Americans actually believe the NRA line that gun ownership is a good idea for personal safety.  

More common than you think

BBC - Earth - Spectacular real virgin births

A good read about virgin births in the animal kingdom.  (Quaint term - "animal kingdom" - isn't it?)

Time to 5:2 again

Fasting facts: is the 5:2 diet too good to be true? | Life and style | The Guardian

I tried the 5:2 diet last year and it did work, but having stopped completely for maybe four months now the weight has been creeping back up towards last year's starting point.  Michael was probably right - having lost the weight, doing it one day a week may be the way to maintain it.

This Guardian article starts out as if it is going to take down the claims a peg or two, but everyone it quotes still seems quite strongly supportive.  There is an alternative mentioned:

Longo himself has fasted daily for more than five years now. He practises time-restricted feeding, where he allows himself only two meals within three to 12 hours – a method that is common among centenarians and, says, “a good way for me to maintain a healthy weight”. It’s better than 5:2, according to Longo, because your system prefers a daily routine, rather than extremes every few days (he also recommends three-to-five day fasts every three months). But he wouldn’t recommend trying it without medical supervision, for fear of malnourishment and “because people like to improvise”, he says. You certainly can’t just go around fasting willy-nilly if you’re still growing, pregnant, diabetic or have other serious health conditions.

Well, until a book comes out about that, I won't try it.

Anyway, perhaps from next week it's time for me to go back to 5:2.   When it's cooler, I can throw in one of those 60 second a week exercise regimes .   Michael endorse them too!  (Heh).

Hotter

Climate change will hit Australia harder than rest of world, study shows | Environment | The Guardian

The CSIRO/BOM website that the article links to looks pretty good - it breaks Australia down into regions and explains what is on the cards regarding not just rainfall, but extreme rainfall, temperatures, etc.  It also indicates the degree of confidence.

While regional forecasts of the effects of climate change are still very tricky, it's interesting to note that one thing they are still most confident about  is that the south west corner of Western Australia will continue to get drier. 

The Guardian report also notes this:

Some of the most profound transformations are set to take place in the
seas that surround Australia, which will warm by a further 2C to 4C
unless emissions are cut.

The ecological changes that this could involve have potentially serious consequences on such mundane matters as tourism.   This summer, a boy was stung at the Brisbane bayside suburb of Wellington Point by the (sometimes) deadly irukandji jellyfish.   An article at the Conversation in 2013 noted that they are normally only in northern Queensland waters (north of Gladstone) but had been found in Harvey Bay.  Now Brisbane.   While it remains unclear whether they can establish this far south in large numbers, if they did, and effectively prevented widespread use of southern Queensland beaches for the hottest summer months, the tourism effect would be very dire.

I am guessing that economists and their DICE models haven't worked out a way to factor that one into projections for GDP effect of global warming in 2090...

Faker than a spaghetti western

Just turned over to watch some of the Baz Luhrmann film Australia, which I knew would be ridiculous, but it exceeds my expectations. 

What on earth was this director thinking?   Everything about the film screams "fake":  the awful acting of poor Nicole Kidman, the sets, the story, the stampede, and (somehow) he even makes the Australian outback look fake - it looks and sounds more like a (particularly bad) 1940's American Western.   It's a film weird in concept and execution.   Any Australian critic who liked it is not to be trusted.

And looking back at what some American critics said about its treatment of aborigines - I see exactly what they mean.

I've been out for a while...is Abbott still PM?

Tony Abbott under fire from Cabinet colleagues over decision to grant knighthood to Prince Philip

 So, the answer seems to be yes, but is on the way out...

Hot

Yesterday, ABC TV said that Brisbane had a high of 37 degrees, and Ipswich too.   It's quite unusual to see the same temperature in both locations. 

I know it was hot where we live, about halfway between those locations.  If this heat and high humidity continues well into February, I think it will start to have the feel of the 1998 summer.

Looking around the world, Brazil is apparently having record heat and continuing, very serious, drought, and California has been hot.  Its drought is also still hanging around, even though rains late last year gave them hope.  The January lack of rain is, however, highly unusual:

January is usually San Francisco's wettest month, averaging four and a half inches of rain since 1850. In January 2015, though, it hasn't rained at all -- and the forecast doesn't suggest that's likely to change. Over the past 165 years, that has never happened. Not once. The closest the city came to a rainless month was when it got 0.06 inches -- in 2014.

But back to Brisbane.

Although our weather bureau contains tables of our climate at different locations, I can't see that they provide anywhere where you can easily graph the results.   (I would welcome being corrected on that.)  But over at the Berkeley Earth temperature records, they do provide pre-made graphs for all major cities.  

Here's what Brisbane's looks like:

 Seems a clear trend since I was born...

A call out to a gallah

Honestly, it would be the funniest bit of political history in Australia since Federation  if Tony's weird knighthood decision led to his losing the Prime Ministership.   I await with pleasure his media performance on this one....

Update:  the photo of the cockatoos was taken this morning.   It's very cheering, watching these white, intelligent birds having a feed. 

Butterfly improvement

Butterflies booming in south-east Queensland - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Yes, my daughter (still on school holidays) has taken to ringing me daily at work to tell me the large number of pretty blue (and one or two orange, apparently) butterflies in our back yard.   I haven't actually seen them there myself, although while driving around I have caught sight of a flash of blue.

We normally get only the most basic black and white type, which I have posted pictures of before.  I did, however, some years ago, get a nice shot of a slightly more exotic one.   I am not sure why there should be a sudden burst of prettier ones. 

An oldie but a goodie - about Matt Ridley

Libertarians are the True Social Parasites | George Monbiot

Mentioned today because the recent Ridley "why are people so mean to me?" column was tweeted by one jtfsoon.

Jihad continues

Man, someone at The Australian is absolutely determined that Gillian Triggs is to be sacked, or discredited to the max.   I would love to know what contact there has been between editorial staff and Coalition figures who want the same outcome - this campaign has been so intense it is hard to believe that it is being driven just by someone at the paper who has taken affront at Triggs.

Anyway, the latest effort comes by quoting the only Australian Human Rights academic I know of who has come out in defence of torture, and taken the view that Australia should withdraw from the UN Refugee convention.  His views on refusing entry to potential refugees who arrive on boats arrivals have essentially been adopted by this government (following from the Rudd decision, it has to be admitted.)

Mirko lost his Refugee Review Tribunal position due to his torture column.  He is truly an outlier in the field of human rights commentary.  His opinion on anything to do with human rights has to be seen in that light.

Gay ol' Berlin

The Gay Capital of the Nineteenth Century - The New Yorker

OK, so everyone's aware of Germany being a bit avant-garde regarding homosexuality in the 20's and 30's, if only because of Cabaret.  (Actually, I still haven't seen it - but I think that's right...)
This review of a book argues that Berlin was actually way ahead of its time in the 19th century, and that a few prominent characters in Germany really can be said to have kicked off the whole gay rights reform movement, despite neighbouring France having actually decriminalised it much earlier.
It's quite an interesting read.  Here, for example:

Gay urges welled up across Europe during the Romantic era; France, in particular, became a haven, since statutes forbidding sodomy had disappeared from its books during the Revolutionary period, reflecting a distaste for law based on religious belief. The Germans, though, were singularly ready to utter the unspeakable. Schopenhauer took a special interest in the complexities of sexuality; in a commentary added in 1859 to the third edition of “The World as Will and Representation,” he offered a notably mellow view of what he called “pederasty,” saying that it was present in every culture. “It arises in some way from human nature itself,” he said, and there was no point in opposing it. (He cited Horace: “Expel nature with a pitchfork, she still comes back.”) Schopenhauer proceeded to expound the dubious theory that nature promoted homosexuality in older men as a way of discouraging them from continuing to procreate.

Not surprisingly, Karl Heinrich Ulrichs seized on Schopenhauer’s curious piece of advocacy when he began his campaign; he quoted the philosopher in one of his coming-out letters to his relatives. Ulrichs might also have mentioned Wagner, who, in “Die Walküre” and “Tristan und Isolde,” depicted illicit passions that many late-nineteenth-century homosexuals saw as allegories for their own experience. Magnus Hirschfeld, in his 1914 book “The Homosexuality of Men and Women,” noted that the Wagner festival in Bayreuth had become a “favorite meeting place” for homosexuals, and quoted a classified ad, from 1894, in which a young man had sought a handsome companion for a Tyrolean bicycling expedition; it was signed “Numa 77, general delivery, Bayreuth.” Ulrichs had published his early pamphlets under the pseudonym Numa Numantius.

I don't know much about Wagner, but I didn't suspect his work of having such an influence.  However, I see that a lesbian blogger has written at length about it.  She says:

In the epilogue to Laurence Dreyfus’s study of Wagner’s erotics, he writes, “It is clear that Wagner’s devotion to depictions of sexual desire was exceedingly unconventional, indeed unprecedented in the history of art.”²  This is certainly because his belief that the repression of female sexual desire as one of the big ills of society was very unconventional. Eva Rieger called the depiction of female sexual desire via Isolde “all but revolutionary.”³  I have covered all this in the posts I referenced above, but I want to make one clear point: all his female characters exhibited very strong desire, including the “virginal” ones such as Elisabeth in Tannhäuser. This was particularly subversive to the dominant sexual culture.

Women–“respectable women”–flocked to hear Wagner’s works, and were among his strongest, most consistent supporters.⁴  And, while they didn’t scream à la Beatlemania, there were repeated reports of audience members—mostly women or gay men—fainting, having sobbing fits and other sorts of delirium.⁵  This outsized reaction to him made his critics react in horror, seeing his work as both a manifestation of illness, and a cause of it. They deemed—with their own brand of hysteria— that Wagner seduced the women (and gay men) to mental disease through his over-wrought music. He was damned as degenerate—just as critics damned rock ’n rollers in the same way. Nonetheless, Wagner won the cultural battle—at least for a time—as a large share of the intelligentsia reacted by embracing him, and Wagnerism was born.

Wagner’s stunning popularity and vast influence (as I wrote about here) opened
the floodgates to much more sexual expressiveness in music and, for that matter, all art. He got away with it, so others now fearlessly followed in his path. In this way, he both directly and indirectly influenced the cultural perception of sexuality. The acceleration of trends towards more open sexuality of the fin de sìecle period, particularly within Germany, France and England, can certainly be traced directly to Wagner.

The things you learn....

Update:   just been reading a bit more about Richard Wagner, and find that his son Siegfried, who continued the family business, was definitely gay - or actually, if one takes ability to have several kids with his wife being any guide - bisexual.   (Rather like Oscar Wilde in that regard.  It would seem that both are now claimed as "gay", but whereas the popular impression of the 21st century gay man is more of one recoiling in horror at the idea of sleeping with a woman, those of the 19th and early 20th century seem to have been somewhat more flexible.)

Anyway, as noted in this site, there is a direct Hitler connection too (I mean, apart from his liking the music):

When Hitler, who was a financial supporter of the Bayreuth Festival, could no longer publicly endorse Lorenz, it was Siegfried’s wife Winifred who used her influence to rescue Bayreuth’s star heldentenor from public disgrace, exile and possible imprisonment over a charge of homosexuality.

Most historians concede that Hitler and Winnifred (below) carried on an affair after Siegfried’s death in 1930; there were even rumors of a possible marriage. Although Winifred was proud of her association with Hitler, when he visited her at Bayreuth, she took pains to conceal the connection. Hitler would register at the Hotel Bube in nearby Bad Berneck, and Winnifred would send her own car to pick him up, so that Hitler's ostentatious Mercedes would not be seen pulling into the driveway at Wahnfried, the Wagner family's villa built for Richard Wagner by King Ludwig II of Bavaria.

  Well, I didn't know that...

Maybe a fair summary?

American Sniper and the political battle over Chris Kyle.

Dana Stevens writes what sounds like a pretty balanced take on the movie and the surrounding controversy.  She liked it, but not without qualification.

This single line seems important:

It’s an existential critique of violent machismo that doubles as a celebration of violence.

 I do usually have a serious problem with that sort of contradictory effect in a movie...

Violence and alcohol

I see that libertarian Liberal Peter Phelps has tweeted a link to the opinion piece in Fairfax today "Australia doesn't have a problem with alcohol.  We have a problem with violence." I take it that he has a problem with the various lock out laws in New South Wales.  

The article makes the first hand observation that in Germany, or Berlin at least, alcohol is sold with few restrictions, at low cost, and consumed copiously, yet they do not have the street violence problem that we have in inner city Australia. In this respect, it sounds like Germany is very like Japan.  (The national characteristics are very similar is quite a few ways, really.) 

So, we all know that different countries have different cultures and different ways of reacting to alcohol and drugs.   But, as the writer of the Fairfax article says, it is by no means clear why young Australians often behave badly when drunk compared to young-ish Germans and Japanese. 

I agree with that.  Many people also feel that behaviour on the streets has become worse over the last few decades.   Why has that happened (assuming it's true - and I suspect it is)?   There is likely no simple answer, with various factors involved, but obviously, it would be completely unrealistic to say the alcohol consumption itself is not a factor. 

But the thing is, if you want to address a problem, you deal with what you've got, and what you can address quickly.  Changing a culture around the consumption of alcohol is not something you can do quickly. 

So regardless of the inter cultural comparisons, the obvious thing to do for a problem of alcohol related street violence in Australia is to tighten control on sale of alcohol.   If the hospital doctors in Sydney say its working, it almost certainly is.  The cultural change that may see us with happy drunks in the streets who rarely get into a fight (as with, in my experience, Japan) might, somehow, come eventually; but until then you deal with what you've got with ways that are quickly effective.

(Oh, and by the way, though regular alcohol consumption after work is extremely common in much of Japan, they do mostly toddle off home by midnight.) 

Verbosity take down

The Guardian has a lengthy essay up with the somewhat promising title "After the Paris Attacks: It's Time for a New Enlightenment."   The author is Pankay Mishra, who I don't know, and while he  appears well intentioned, it seems from a quick scan to be a very verbose, somewhat rambling exercise that does an awful lot of sympathetic "contextualising" of European Muslims, which I am inclined to think is not a very useful response.

More interesting (and amusing) is this comment which really puts a boot into this style of essay.  I will re-print it in full:

This will be become the standard example of the post-modern essay for first year undergraduate humanities students. It demonstrates all the features required to achieve celebrity pundit status. Firstly make sure you extensively quote many other pundits, trying to avoid scientists and politicians in democracies, both actual text and hearsay, name dropping as much as possible but carefully avoiding having any original thoughts yourself. This will confirm how well read you are but not expose you to the tedious business of having to defend your views. If the quotes come from those getting bungs from the Templeton Foundation, so much the better. Secondly, make sure that what you say will be just this side of bonkers and irrational so you don't come across as actually objecting to physical reality, gravity or such like but don't impugn those whose views encompass denial of historical events, human rights or some of the benefits of modernity. Thirdly, and this is very important, don't come up with any concrete suggestions yourself on how to effect change, manage difference and organise a functioning society but maintain an ethereal detachment from the nitty-gritty of getting elected or promoting tolerance and pluralism without being killed. Lastly, whatever you do don't draw attention to the obvious failures or barbarities of some cultural practices or, if you have to then make it seem as though these are not really related to the culture itself but must be some relic of previous oppression. Once these techniques have been mastered future commissions for filler and click bait are assured.

When touching equals molesting

BBC News - How teenage hugs angered Islamic authorities in Malaysia

You have to watch the video to get a good idea of the neurotic control "Sharia authorities" wish to exercise over sexuality. 

What a good idea...

Saudi Arabia should 'curb marriages within relatives', says genetics researcher | GulfNews.com

Some extraordinary figures in this report:

Riyadh: A scheme to curb marriages within relatives in Saudi Arabia is
being intensified with a compulsory pre-marriage medical tests now
broached to cut the high rate of genetic diseases among the population.

Dr Ayman Al Sulaiman, a genetic researcher and consultant at King
Faisal Hospital in the capital Riyadh, told Saudi TV that a 2004 survey
showed endogamy (marriage between close kin of the first or second
degree or even in the same family) in Saudi Arabia was around 53 per
cent. Now, that figure has climbed to 67 per cent....

In 2014, the head of the Embryology Unit in Al-Ahsa Maternity and
Children Hospital, Dr. Nihad Al-Kashi, blamed endogamy for up to 70
percent of fetal abnormalities in Saudi Arabia's Al-Ahsa region,
according to an Arab News report.

Dr Al Sulaiman said Saudi population faces genetic diseases no other
country has and has one of the highest  genetic disease rates in the
world, estimated at one per 1,000. This compares with one per 4,000 in
the United States and one per 8,000 in Japan.

"This means the ratio of genetic diseases in Saudi Arabia is almost eight times that of Japan,” he told Saudi TV.

Camel love

The deep bond camels share with their owners | GulfNews.com

Winning a camel race may fetch you huge prize money and luxury cars,
“but more than the money, it is the prestige attached to owning the
fastest camels that matters”.

Camels, he said, represent the prestige of a tribe. “We will go to any
extent to retain that honour. We will even die for them. There have been
instances in the past where tribes have fought wars over camels. If
someone from one tribe took away a camel belonging to another, the onus
was on the owner to bring it back, whatever the cost, even if he had to
pay with his life,” Al Ameri said.

Moochers Against Mooching strike again

The IPA gets into mooching again, putting its hand out for money to pay for fellow anti-mooching moocher ("Send me Money - I am defending myself in a defamation case and my fees are extraordinary") Mark Steyn to come out to Australia.

Well, thank God it's not tax deductible this time.

Historical rice

From a review of a new book "Rice - A Global History":

The role of rice in supporting population growth in ancient China is explored in some depth. The arrival of short-growth-season rice varieties into Song Dynasty China, for instance, marked the beginnings of a green revolution. Unfortunately, Marton overlooks the regional complexities of the process — the gradual domestication of perennial wetland grasses in the Yangtze valley, and their subsequent adaptation to temperate China and to drier ecologies in the mountains of Southeast Asia². The story of the wild rices of India is also passed by. The hybridization of these varieties with Chinese rices, potentially around 4,000 years ago, led to an explosive expansion of agriculture and population growth in India. It was the lowland irrigated forms from India that went on to fuel urban expansion in places like Thailand over the past 2,000 years². While these stories are missed, other aspects of rice's cross cultural journey are highlighted. Each of these translocations led to new recipes, culinary fusion and diversification, as nicely illustrated by 16 recipes selected from historical cook books the world over. As Marton states “Rice is frequently the white canvas on which culinary cultures are painted.”

Marton pays particular attention to the establishment of rice in the Americas, starting in the sixteenth century. Here, traditions of cultivating rice can be traced back to west Africa. Whether initially smuggled by enslaved Africans or intentionally brought over by European settlers, the African rice crop made the tropical lands of the Caribbean and the waterlogged soils of the Lower Mississippi productive enough to support dense populations that then turned their attention to the cultivation of non-subsistence crops like sugar and cotton in less waterlogged soils. The demand for sugar and cotton drove demand for more slaves, and more mouths to feed meant more rice had to be planted. Later, rice became an export commodity in its own right. Marton explains how the growing demand for rice in European urban centres like London in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries came to be met increasingly by American colonies; Africans with inherited cultures of growing rice were in high demand at the time to ensure high profits for their masters. Today, the rice-based dish gumbo, that came out of Louisiana in the eighteenth century, serves as a clear example of the history of rice in the region; the dish takes its name from the linguistic root for the vegetable okra in the African Bantu languages, and is a melting pot of African, French, Spanish and Italian culinary influences.

 Rice certainly has played an important role in lots of places, then;  more broadly than I had realised.