A big ask

The United Nations climate conference: Making climate agreements work | The Economist

A couple of economists argue here why they still favour a cap and trade scheme to make international reductions in CO2 work.  But they do show a certain optimism, to put it mildly, about enforcement mechanisms.  Here are the concluding paragraphs:

There is no bulletproof solution to the problem of enforcement, but
at least two instruments should be used against countries which break
climate agreements. First, the WTO should treat non-compliance as a form
of dumping, leading to sanctions. Second, non-compliance should commit
future administrations and should be treated like sovereign debt. In a
cap-and-trade system, a shortfall of permits at the end of the year
would add to the public debt of offending country. The conversion rate
would be the current market price. Non-participating countries should be
punished with border taxes administered by the WTO.

There is no perfect solution to climate change that wraps economic efficiency in a
politically convenient package. But the current pledge-and-review strategy is unacceptable, and will just prolong the waiting game. A carbon tax, which is efficient and reasonable, is clearly superior. But the cap-and-trade approach combines the efficiency of the carbon tax with easier enforcement. For that reason we believe it should sit at the heart of any successful global climate agreement.

Any day now, I'll stop mentioning it...

Brad Bird's Movies Are About Creativity, Not Ayn Rand - The Atlantic

A pleasing article here about Brad Bird (and Tomorrowland).

Libertarian elitism

It's quite timely that Tomorrowland [yes, when will I stop talking about it?] has a plot which has prompted discussion about its quasi libertarian/Randian aspects, given the jailing of Ross Ulbricht for founding (and running) Silk Road as his libertarian dream.

Jason Soon has been tweeting (without comment) some libertarian articles expressing sympathy for Ulbricht.  This one from (I take it) libertarian cheer leader Kathryn Steele is completely and utterly over the top:

Make no mistake, in a society that slaps pedophiles and rapists on the wrist, Ross Ulbricht is sentenced to die behind bars because he dared to question the authority of the state.

Ghandi questioned the authority of the state and strove for a solution. Rosa Parks and MLK questioned the authority of the state and strove for a solution. Thomas Jefferson questioned the authority of the state and strove for a solution, George Washington questioned the authority of the state and strove for a solution.

What she doesn't mention is the issue of whether Ulbricht was putting contracts out to kill people threatening his business model.  (Maybe it was being done as pretensies, seems to be the libertarian response - like putting out fake contracts is a legitimate way of conducting business.)  But hey, what does that all matter, as long as Ulbricht was doing something that let people thumb their noses at the law of the land (several lands, actually) and libertarians could once again feel the righteousness of condemning a "war on drugs" that they have become utterly obsessed with as their favourite boogey man.     

I have previously posted about an article in AEON that explained why Silk Road, and enterprises like it, are doomed to become dangerously criminal.   It's worth reading again, as is this detailed report of the history of Ulbricht and the evidence that came out at trial:  it shows that Steele swooning over the alleged brilliance of her hero is just crap.  For one thing, the simple way he was caught indicates he was not the sharpest libertarian criminal mind in the drawer.   Ulbricht's defence that he was not the ring leader after setting it up is shown pretty convincingly to be improbable and (of course) self serving.   The work of the police in getting the laptop he was operating on was real crime movie stuff.

In any event, this case, and the libertarian support noticeable in Reason for direct human genetic modification, does demonstrate that the intellectual elitism of Ayn Rand's view of the world (you know, killing off moochers on a train)  is still a real issue within libertarianism.   National and international drug laws are for the little people, apparently.    Help facilitate their breach because you philosophically oppose criminalising drug trade on libertarian principles, and you're supposed to be a hero.

Yeah, no.

The judge's reasoning as to why this had to be hit with the harshest possible punishment was quite compelling:

Silk Road’s birth and presence asserted that its…creator was better than the laws of this country. This is deeply troubling, terribly misguided, and very dangerous.

And as for libertarian views on direct editing of the human genome - I'll come back to that later.

Tomorrowland Viewed - Blogger Happy

Saw Tomorrowland on the weekend, with the teen and almost teen kids, and we all liked it.

I don't understand the negative, or even mixed reviews.  There was nothing wrong with the third act:  it was not "too preachy":  it was all about what Brad Bird said he wanted to make - a movie about why optimism for the future had dissipated since the 50's and 60's.

Brad Bird remains a fine action director.    It consistently looks spectacular, and has elements of considerable charm.    (It's true, it's not a film for really young kids, but then, nor were the Pirates of the Caribbean movies, and no one demands that of all Disney output these days.)

But now, let's get into the political analysis and spoiler territory.

Spoiler Alert:

As I have said, it is truly weird the enthusiasm with which some on the Right have taken a cue from the likes of Breitbart to hate the film, sight unseen.  (Oh no! - a two hour film mentions global warming as a serious threat to the planet for about 45 seconds of its running time, and it must be condemned.  Geez, the Right is truly intellectually enfeebled at this point in history.  When is it going to recover ?)

To be fair, though, at least one Right wing site gave it a good review.  That attracted this comment:

George Clooney, and the movie is being used by Government Motors to push Smart cars.

I'm pretty sure I already know what the movie is about. No thanks. I'm just sick to death of Communism.

?

On the other side of the political fence, the movie has attracted a fair bit of commentary about whether Brad Bird is a crypto libertarian, particularly at Slate.  (Reason also noted it could be called a version of Atlas Shrugged for Kids.) 

I reckon this Slate article answers this proposition correctly:  no, Bird is not a Randian fan, and is clearly a supporter of Democrat politicians.  Bird has respect for the innately talented (very clear from Ratatouille and The Incredibles), but his stories also emphasize the talented fitting in to society and benefiting it collectively.

I mean, (honestly, clear plot spoilers about to be stated)  even in Tomorrowland, the two characters who espouse the wonders of said titular dimension as a de-regulated realm where the best can succeed free of restraint (a distinctly libertarian idea) turn out to be evil killing robots; and the guy who has decided to keep the rabble out of his version of Galt's Gulch gets killed (we think) in the end.  

Aren't those plot points a fair enough hint that Bird thinks talent should be free to have its head, but that's about where his libertarian/Randian sympathies stop?

And a  final point:   the movie has made me realise that any movie which heavily features rocket packs is likely to be enjoyable.   I didn't mind The Rocketeer all those years ago;  but even a dark film featuring them, like Minority Report, was also good. 

But it must just be a rocket pack, not a rocket suit.   (Based on the fact I don't care for the Ironman movies.)   My rule of thumb regarding movies with rocket packs is quite specific.

Tall, liberal, poppy syndrome

Rarely do you get as much media attention to a movie having a disappointing opening  as you do with  Tomorrowland.

As I noted before, it's been absolutely clear from looking at comments at American sites in particular that Clooney is despised by those on the Right for his liberal stance, and when someone like Drudge calls on the Tea Party's flying monkeys, they are happy to visit any site (Variety! - ha) with comments rubbishing him and any movie he's in.  (Disney itself is somewhat of a target too.  I'm not sure that any truly dedicated Tea Partier in America can bear to go to one of its theme parks.)

Of course, it's true that the movie has received mostly mixed reviews.   But at IMDB, it's receiving a user rating of 6.9, which shows most people don't consider it a complete disaster.

The political getting involved in attitudes towards movies reminds me of John Carter in 2012.  I recall that, for some reason, Right wing sites tended to give it good reviews, but it was a genuine box office disaster - $73 million in the US in total.  When it turned up on free to air TV here sometime last year, I tried to watch it, but man, it was awful, and I gave up after 30 minutes.   I have no idea what make the Right side with it.

In any event, my allegiance to Brad Bird will ensure I see Tomorrowland this weekend.  (I think Clooney is likeable, especially in comedies, but I don't by any means see all of his movies.) 

Update:   for those who note that I can't stand Clint Eastwood - true, I can't, although I don't just put it down to his dopey politics (the empty chair routine helped Obama, if anything).  I have always found him a bad actor, don't care for his frequently recurring violence and revenge/vigilante themes, and never thought any of his films were interestingly directed.  And besides - he has wide respect even from notoriously liberal American film critics (see Sniper, for example), showing that (unlike the Right) the Left does not automatically write off Hollywood figures because of their politics.   

Big polling news

Newspoll closes as News Corp Australia replaces 150 staff with 'robopoll' | Media | The Guardian

I guess the obvious problem with Newspoll was its reliance on landlines, but on the other hand, I've always thought automated poll questions were easier for busy people to simply hang up on immediately.  I thought Newspoll was still very reliable, although how it manages that, I'm not sure.  Do they just keep ringing until they find enough people in each age bracket?  I guess they do...

I've been polled by both methods but my interest in politics is such that I was happy to participate in both.  I still think, though, that it is easier to exaggerate your opinion on individual issues to a machine if it gives you a 1 to 5 scale. 

Either/or

Experiment confirms quantum theory weirdness

Seems that this experiment means either the future affects the past, or that atoms are everywhere (as a blurry probability smear) until they are measured.

In either case, this seems quite significant.

Nature on laser weapons

Military technology: Laser weapons get real : Nature News & Comment

The fog problem has still evidently not been overcome, which is a shame.   I guess that means fog machines may become an important bit of defence equipment in future, which seems a bit retro, doesn't it?

Sorry, David.

Well, seems to me that Bill Shorten is getting all the attention and kudos from gay marriage supporters for his move on the topic, and not David Leyonhjelm.   

Politics is a funny game, hey?  By which I mean, it amuses me no end that the Senator has been sidelined. 

Perhaps he'll have to go back to talking to an empty Senate about guns,  keeping kangaroos as pets, and how taxes give him hives.  Update:  oh, and how he's into "woo" about wind turbines.  About which, incidentally, see this post taking down some Graham Lloyd reporting.

Republican paralysis

Jeb Bush fumbles for "moderate" stance on climate, falls on face - Vox

This talks more broadly than just about Jeb Bush, and gives a good summary of the climate change policy paralysis the Republicans are in.

With any luck, some hot El Nino related weather shakes them up more, but I'm not overly optimistic.  There are too many people who have to admit they are wrong.

Lomborgian claims scrutinised

"Seven Nobel Laureates" Behind Climate Contrarian Bjorn Lomborg's Think Tank Are Not All They Seem, Or Even All Alive | DeSmogBlog

Turns out one of the Seven Nobel Laureates has been dead for two years; another is 94 and a climate change lukewarmer since the 1980's; a third is on the board at the libertarian Cato Institute.

What a surprise Lomborg's work leans towards doing stuff other than reducing CO2 in a hurry?

The yeast apocalypse cometh

Partly human yeast show a common ancestor's lasting legacy -- ScienceDaily

I've been writing about yeast for a while now, and contemplating ideas of yeast apocalypse of varying degrees of seriousness:

a.  cosmic ray mutated yeast on board a spaceship or colony becomes particularly well adapted to the human gut, causing nearly all people therein to be continually drunk;

b.  genetically engineered yeast to make fake milk goes rampant in the environment and causes thousands of  brewers to get obnoxious, cloudy, cheesey beer;

c.  genetically engineered yeast to make opiates goes rampant in the environment and gives all home brewers a morphine addiction.

 Now, with the story above about how many genes humans and yeast share, I can perhaps go further, and get some sort of yeast/human genetic cross over resulting in the yeast-ification of the human species.  Not exactly as exciting as The Fly, I guess; rather more like the original The Thing from Another World.  (It was an evolved vegetable, after all.)   

Napoleonic summary

Why We'd Be Better Off if Napoleon Never Lost at Waterloo | History | Smithsonian

Looks like a very readable summary of Napoleon's life (about which I know little) at the link.

Weird quasi friendship

William F. Buckley, Jr., and Norman Mailer’s Friendship - The New Yorker

Speaking of climate change....something known for more than 100 years

Guest post: Nothing New Under the Sun | …and Then There's Physics

Go read this excellent post which extracts a section from a 1904 book which sets out the clear understanding that already existed then as to the role of CO2 and  water vapour in regulating the Earth's climate.

Move forward a 100 years, and politically motivated, conspiracy minded idiots with a means of communication that lets them gather a gullible following easier than ever before are still denying it is possible.

Can you tell I'm feeling cranky today?

About the weather (and climate change)

Slate has an article about the recent, very intense, rainfall causing flash flooding in Texas.  It makes the point that the dumb decline to understand, or refuse to believe, or whatever (my bold):

Over the longer term, this kind of weather isn’t totally unexpected—extreme swings in precipitation are becoming the new normal. This month’s heavy rains are directly linked to a building El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is forecast to strengthen throughout the summer, meaning heavy rains could return to the southern plains at regular intervals.

A steadily escalating whipsaw between drought and flood is one of the most confident predictions of an atmosphere with enhanced evaporation rates—meaning, global warming. Since 1958, there’s been a 16 percent increase in the amount of rain falling in the heaviest rainstorms on the Plains, even as long-term projections point toward an increased risk of megadrought. Both of these can happen at the same time.

Texas’s quick transition from drought hellscape to underwater theme park was egged on by both El Niño and climate change. A quick check of the latest seasonal forecast shows there’s a lot more rain to come this summer.

The heat wave in India is making a lot of news too, and when you see scenes of the slums of that country, as were shown on Foreign Correspondent last night, it's hard to imagine a country less prepared for killing heat.  (Well, maybe Bangladesh, because one of the unsaid things about the story of the father and son working as rubbish collectors in India was "gee, how bad must Bangladesh be for this guy to think he had a better chance of getting ahead by doing this in India?")

Mind you, it's not clear that maximum temperatures are often setting new, all time records; but heat waves are measured by length, not just daily maximum records.  Does the Indian weather bureau think climate change is making them worse?   Yes, it seems so, but I guess they are just all part of the global UN socialist conspiracy, hey?:

And heat waves are increasing as a result of global climate change, according to the India Meteorological Department. Over the past half century, from 1961 to 2010, heat waves (when the temperature exceeds the average by 5 or 6 degrees Celsius) have increased by a third.

A heat wave in Ahmedabad in 2010, with temperatures reaching 112 degrees Fahrenheit, caused an “excess mortality” of about 1,300 people, according to a study done in 2014. 
A heat wave in Andhra Pradesh in 2003 — still considered perhaps the worst in recent years — claimed more than 3,000 lives.

 And as for the El Nino, I was looking at the  Climate Reanalyser site for today's summary of sea surface temperature anomalies, and this is what it looks like:

Yep, sure looks like an El Nino, as far as I know...

Army problems

Iraqi Military Losing Ground to ISIS Reflects Political Dysfunction in Country - The Atlantic


And by the way, the America Right's attempt at putting all blame on Obama for the situation in Iraq is pretty shameful. 

Solar criticisms reviewed

The benefits of solar do outweigh its costs. Some have a hard time accepting it | Giles Parkinson | Comment is free | The Guardian

I knew that there would be a substantial pushback against the Grattan Institute report on roof top solar.  In what media I have read on the Grattan report, I don't quite understand the motivation of the authors, apart from something like attention seeking.   They seem broadly supportive of solar power, but (as this article linked above indicates pretty convincingly) they also went out of their way to exaggerate the issues with the policy mix up in certain years of its  introduction.

Compulsory cruises continued

Vietnamese asylum seekers kept on customs boat for a month

Seems an extraordinary far reach of Australian customs to be returning Vietnamese to that country.  And what about this?:

Major-General Bottrell said there was a "diplomatic exchange between the Vietnamese government" and the Australian government before the group were returned to the coastal town of Vung Tau, in southern Vietnam.

"There was a level of comfort provided for them," he said. He told a Senate estimates hearing that Vietnamese officials provided assurance that there would be no retribution for the group's illegal departure from Vietnam.

But Major-General Bottrell admitted the Australian government did not track asylum seekers once they have been returned, under questioning from Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young,

Easy to forget he's still alive

John Glenn: Evolution should be taught in schools

If you had asked me, I would have assumed that Mercury astronaut hero John Glenn had died but I had forgotten.   He is, in fact, still alive (age 93), although not exceptionally healthy, but the sounds.  Still got his marbles, though, which is nice..