Matt Ridley is wrong

If wishes were horses | …and Then There's Physics

Ridley's got another short "what's the problem?  AGW won't get dangerous for another century" article which will only convince the ignorant, like Adam Creighton, but he got to run it in Scientific American.

The explanation of why he is a wrong-headed dissembler is given at the link above.

I've never enjoyed Scientific American much, but really, publishing failed banker and coal miner Ridley on climate change?

Some good (and bad) climate change commentary

*  And Then There's Physics has a crack at the "we can't stay under 2C now" pessimism, and I generally agree with him.  (See the comments too, where he says it seems to be a case of climate scientists not being able to "win" either way.)

* Lenore Taylor has an excellent explanation of how Australian policy got to where it is today.   The details of this are hard to keep in memory, so it's really good to see such a clear account.

*  And now for the bad:  the very bad.  Adam Creighton writes with so many errors in his take on climate change, it's hard to know where to begin.  Take this paragraph:

But even more problematic, the link between carbon dioxide and global average temperatures is highly uncertain. Sure, it is probably positive, but the degree of the relationship is vague, as sober analysts of the climate change debate will readily point out. Moreover, splicing the effect out from temperature changes that would have happened anyway is next to impossible.

"Sober analysis" - ha!

This paragraph in particular shows his complete ignorance on the topic:

The other problem with these models is they assume the impact of global warming is unambiguously bad. It might not be. For example, the 44,000 more than expected people who died in the British winter last year — in part because of the cold — might have had a different view.

Absolute unadulterated rubbish, and proof he simply does not read the IPCC reports or any other material - where the cross over between any net benefits to net harm has been a matter of hotly contested dipute.  (Lukewarmer Richard Tol's error prone work being very significant on this.)

But how surprising is it really, that a small government, anti tax, libertarian inclined economics writer knows stuff all about climate change. 

But the basic problem with his argument is the common (and discredited one) - that uncertainty is our friend.   It isn't, Adam.  Read. 

An extraordinary first world problem

I guess we've all seen or heard of the problem of excess skin on formerly obese people, but the SMH has a remarkable story about it this morning.  I didn't realise how lengthy, risky and expensive the surgery to correct it could be.   You would think that if more people knew about this they might stop their weight gain before growing or stretching all that excess surface area, but I guess human nature isn't like that.

The profession says "good riddance"

Philip Nitschke burns medical certificate and says he will promote euthanasia | Australia news | The Guardian

The infinite information universe?

So, I was in bed last night scrolling through the arXiv papers (I recommend the Android app for this, by the way - it's really good) when I found this relatively recent one:  No Return to Classical Reality.

Here's the abstract, with the important bit highlighted by me:

At a fundamental level, the classical picture of the world is dead, and has been dead now for almost a century. Pinning down exactly which quantum phenomena are responsible for this has proved to be a tricky and controversial question, but a lot of progress has been made in the past few decades. We now have a range of precise statements showing that whatever the ultimate laws of Nature are, they cannot be classical. In this article, we review results on the fundamental phenomena of quantum theory that cannot be understood in classical terms. We proceed by first granting quite a broad notion of classicality, describe a range of quantum phenomena (such as randomness, discreteness, the indistinguishability of states, measurement-uncertainty, measurement-disturbance, complementarity, noncommutativity, interference, the no-cloning theorem, and the collapse of the wave-packet) that do fall under its liberal scope, and then finally describe some aspects of quantum physics that can never admit a classical understanding -- the intrinsically quantum mechanical aspects of Nature. The most famous of these is Bell's theorem, but we also review two more recent results in this area. Firstly, Hardy's theorem shows that even a finite dimensional quantum system must contain an infinite amount of information, and secondly, the Pusey--Barrett--Rudolph theorem shows that the wave-function must be an objective property of an individual quantum system. Besides being of foundational interest, results of this sort now find surprising practical applications in areas such as quantum information science and the simulation of quantum systems.

Here's some more detail from within the paper:

At the heart of classical information theory is the idea of a classical bit – the information revealed by a single yes-no question. Our ability to quantify, encode and transform information has revolutionised the world in countless ways (telecommunications, the internet, computers, etc.), and its study has shed light on the foundations of physics. Central to this is the idea that information does not care how we choose to encode it – we can encode information on paper, in electronic pulses or carve it into stone. For almost all of history our encoding of information has been into classical degrees of freedom. However, Nature is quantum-mechanical and, in recent years, we have begun to use quantum degrees of freedom to encode information. A central question therefore arises: does information in quantum mechanics have the same properties as in classical mechanics?

Now, the state of even the simplest quantum system – a qubit – is specified by continuous  parameters. This means that it requires an infinite amount of information to specify the state exactly. For example, the amplitude α of |0i in the superposition α|0i + β|1i could encode the decimal expansion of π. Thus, at first glance, it seems that that quantum systems can carry vastly more information than classical systems. However, Holevo [22, 42, 43] showed only a single bit of classical information can ever be extracted from a qubit system via measurement. Further, in spite having a continuous infinity of pure states, quantum computation do not suffer from the the problems that rule out analog classical computers [22]. Powerful theorems on the discretization of errors [22] tell us that we do not need to correct a continuum of errors, but only particular discrete types. These surprising characteristics present a basic conundrum: how is it that qubits behave as if they are discrete systems when their state space forms a continuum?

As already discussed, in classical statistical mechanics we can consider the allowed macrostates: the set of probability distributions over some state space Λ of microstates. It is easy to see that these distributions also form a continuum – even if there is only a discrete finite set of microstates. As an example, consider the case of DNA bases, which can be in one of 4 microstates A, T, C or G. The macrostate for a single base is therefore a probability distribution p = (pA, pT , pC, pG), obeying Pj pj = 1 and 0 ≤ pj ≤ 1 for all j = A, T, C, G. The set of such distributions therefore forms a solid tetrahedron (a simplex) in 3-dimensional space, and there is a continuum of macrostates (see Figure 7).

The fact that qubits behave in many ways like discrete, finite systems would be easily explained  if perhaps there were only a finite number of more fundamental states – like the finite number  of DNA bases – and if the continuum of quantum states only represented our uncertainty about which one of them is occupied – like the continuum of DNA macrostates. Surprisingly, in spite of Holevo’s bound and the discretization of errors, this cannot be the case: any future physical
theory that reproduces the physics of finite-dimensional quantum systems must have an infinite number of fundamental states.

The paper then goes onto to explain Hardy's proof of this.  It's math-y, and the interested reader (hello?) can go read it in the paper itself.

"Hardy" is Lucien Hardy, who seems to have made quite a name for himself in quantum theory, and is said to have devised a pretty simple proof back in 1992 that quantum physics must be non local.


But the "theorem" referred to about infinite information seems to come from a 2004 paper, which does not seem to be on arXiv.

But there is a 2010 paper by someone (from where, I do not see - another paper just gives a hotmail address for him!) disputing that Hardy is right on this.  He argues that "infinite excess baggage also occurs in classical theories".

Well, what to make of this?

Am I wrong, or I am right, in suspecting that the idea of infinite information being necessary in a quantum universe to be pretty significant for a philosophical understanding of the nature of the universe? 

It seems that Godel's Incompleteness Theorem gets all the attention from a philosophical implication point of view, but perhaps there is another theorem here that deserves similar thought.

Certainly, for the religious, the idea of infinite information tends to be associated with God, so if Hardy is right, does it suggest more of a Spinoza view of God rather than the Catholic view?

Bit deep for a Friday, hey?

Update:   see, when the question is asked at Quora "is there an infinite amount of information in the Universe", most people answer "no".

As you do...

Man stole brains from former insane asylum and put them on eBay | US news | The Guardian

Let's play "climate change whiplash"!

Only In It For The Gold: Have We Missed the 2C Target Already?

As I have noted before, there's a real "whiplash" problem going on in the lead up to Paris, with some apparent experts pointing out things like how much could be achieved in CO2 reductions even with current technology; how coal may have already peaked in China; how batteries could revolutionise the use of clean energy, etc.

On the other hand, you have posts like the one linked above complaining that by pretending that the 2C limit is achievable when it most likely isn't, scientists are giving false optimism to nations, which leads to them not committing to the degree of effort that really would be needed. 

On the third hand, surely it has to be realised that the long standing enemies of effective policy towards reducing CO2 (the small government/anti regulation/anti tax conservative/libertarians of America) can seize on discussion that 2C is effectively inachievable to argue that there is no point in seeking to limit CO2, and promote instead a foolhardy "aircondition the planet" strategy (that is, the idea to push economic growth as the priority, including by burning more fossil fuels, because it is only by getting richer that the planet can be airconditioned - or geoengineered - fast enough to survive any temperature rise.)

It is a very tricky business, but I would have thought the appropriate response just has to include the following:

a. likely overshooting of 2C doesn't mean you don't seek to limit it as low as possible above 2C;

b. no one has any clear idea how well geoengineering may work and how it may hurt some countries for the benefit of others.  It will only be worth trying once things really are dire, and cannot address ocean acidification in any realistic scenario;

c. don't let pessimism become self fulfilling defeatism.   When strong commitment to environmental action is made, the results are often faster and better than expected. 

The very reasonable Jericho

Cut company tax rate to grow revenue? That's magical thinking | Greg Jericho | Australia news | The Guardian

Alloy news

AM - Scientists say new alloy could revolutionise manufacturing 26/11/2015

Rare that the creation of a new, useful alloy makes the news.  Interesting, though. 

Sounds horrible

I used to make fun of SoulCycle. Now I'm an addict. - Vox

I guess we'll be seeing this in Australia soon enough, if it's not already here.

Speaking of exercise in groups (a concept I've always had trouble with), at the local Council swimming pool last weekend I noticed that the free aqua zumba class is terribly popular, but with about 95% of the participants being distinctly unfit looking middle aged women, 3% younger fitter women, and about 2% men.   Although it is only the start of summer, and it may be that they will be all svelte beauties by the end of the season, I think the more likely assumption is that it gives them the sensation of being useful exercise, when it really isn't.

Yet more Spectre talk

A few things I wanted to add:

*  one of the "retro" aspects of the film was some very clear product placement, of the kind that I do not recall from the previous Craig outings, but which used to feature prominently in Bond films  (particularly in the Roger Moore era, I seem to recall.)   The (very unsubtle) Omega watch, for one thing; but I also see (mainly from posters around town, as well a cinema ad before the film) the Sony Experia Z5 smartphone, and a brand of vodka that I can't even recall now.

The Sony and vodka product placement seem particularly pointless to me, given that while the phone might have been on screen several times,  I don't think you could ever tell that it was an Experia at all.  Let's face it, lots of smart phones look pretty similar, and maybe it is just be my lack of observation skills, but it seems odd that you have to have seen the pre-movie (or TV?) ad to recognise the product on screen.

I think the vodka came out even worse.  Or maybe it wasn't even in the movie at all:  but the ad before the film indicated it would be.   All rather odd.

*  I have to admit, the movie did come very close to crossing my "that is such plainly ridiculous science, I cannot forgive it" line that (for example) Goldeneye hurtled over.   (I won't repeat the problem in that movie - I mention it about every 12 months here - but it was unforgiveably stupid.)   The Spectre issue - Q's laptop which (I think) was meant to incorporate an instantaneous DNA analysing scanner.   Now, the movie survives this sequence because it was dealt with so quickly - I'm not 100% sure that this is what it was doing - but even allowing for the impossibility of testing for DNA via some scan, my readers would recall that I posted recently about the incredible unreliability of "touch" DNA analysis, and this was a ring being scanned, about the touchiest thing of all!  In other words, even if the laptop could do it, it would be hopelessly unreliable.  It is a pity that this survived in the screenplay.

*  At a more general level, seriously, why can't studios pay someone sensible (pick me!) to tell them when their plot-crucial sciency-technology bit of ridiculousness is just too ridiculous to stay?   You don't need a scientist to do that job:  just someone who reads enough science magazines and has a good nose for what is just stupid given current technology, allowing for some extrapolation of what might be possible.

Another Spielberg award

Medal of Freedom Awarded to ‘a Class Act’ Group of 17 - The New York Times

WASHINGTON — President Obama awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Tuesday to an eclectic mix of Americans from the sciences, arts, sports, politics and human
rights, some of them household names and others who he indicated should be.

Among those honored were such iconic figures as Willie Mays, Barbra Streisand, Itzhak Perlman, James Taylor, Gloria and Emilio Estefan, Stephen Sondheim and Steven Spielberg.
There was also the widow of a general who helped other survivors, and a space scientist who was a pioneer in diversity as well as the cosmos.

When a telephone rang during his description of Mr. Spielberg’s many movies, the president joked: “Somebody is calling to see if they can book him for a deal right now. They want to make a pitch.”

And then he made one of his own: “So there’s this really good-looking president,” he started.

Nate Silver is almost certainly right this time...

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls | FiveThirtyEight

Not much publicity in Australia to this report

The Statesman: 90% disasters are weather-related: UN report

In the past 20 years, 90 percent of major disasters were caused by nearly 6,500 recorded floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts and other weather-related events, UN spokesman has
said.

A new UN-backed report, entitled The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters, found that since 1995, over 600,000 people died as a result of weather-related disasters and 4.1 billion people were injured, left homeless or in need of emergency assistance, Xinhua quoted UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric as saying on Monay.

The five countries hit by the highest number of disasters were the US, China, India, Philippines and Indonesia, said Dujarric.

The report issued by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction  (UNISDR) notes data gaps, saying that only 35 percent of records include information about economic losses.

Libertarian Senator responds:   "But what about bicycle helmets, not being able to get a drink after 3 am, and the amount of tax I'm paying?"

Message to Senator Leyonhjelm

This "look at me, look at me!" tactic of yours in the Senate is unseemly in a grown man.   Also - it doesn't pay off when the response of the great majority of the public is "yeah, look at the *!@%#$*&". 

A burst of "we can do it!" in time for Paris

Researchers suggest airlines could halve emissions by 2050 by making cost-effective adjustments


US could cut per capita greenhouse emissions 90% by 2050, says report

Transportation Emissions Could Be Cut in Half by 2050

Just about the most improbable climate change connection, ever

What Can Nietzsche Tell Us About the Paris Conference?

I guess it's really just click bait, but still.

I'm pretty sure one of the handiest things Nietzsche could advise regarding the conference is "don't catch an STD while in Paris - use a condom!"

Update:  here's a contender for an more dubious, apparently serious, contribution from 2012.

Unreliable advice from the country

Red-bellied black snake bites Mirani woman, cat comes to the rescue - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

A 66 year old woman in Queensland was bitten on her hand by a venomous snake for the 5 4th(!) time, and offers this quaint but dubious advice:

"I'm a bit of a pro at this snake business," she said.

"My mum always said it'll be a snake that kills me, so yeah, I'm not really planning on one [a fifth experience], but who knows.

"Just be careful, and wear your glasses when you go outside, that helps."

Ms Thynne said her experience had taught her that if you were bitten by a snake you should "definitely not panic".

"If it's a real deadly looking one, sit under a tree with a cigarette, with a cup of tea and pray, but yeah wrap it up and hope."

What summer camp used to be like

There Were American Nazi Summer Camps Across the US in the 1930s

Crazy times

I find it actually quite disturbing, what is going on in the US at the moment regarding truth and politics.

As the US media notes, both Trump and Carson can fantasise about Muslims celebrating terrorism in New Jersey, and there is no doubt tens of thousands of their followers will believe it happened.

A Republican Congressman can allege, with no evidence at all beyond what goes on at climate change denying blogs by foolish armchair commentators, that there is a grand conspiracy in NOAA to fraudulently change temperature records.  And we know scores of Republican voters will believe it.

Has regard for truth and good will in politics in the US ever been at a lower ebb?