Flood infrastructure beware

Global warming already driving increases in rainfall extremes : Nature News & Comment

Interesting study reported here.

I see that The Australian remains committed to climate change scoffing by claiming this paper shows a climate modelling fail in the headline:  "Deserts in a for a drenching as theories of climate change again", which is a ridiculous way to spin the study.   (And, as is often the case in the Australian, the body of the report tends to undermine the way it is headlined.)   

Peta speaks!

Well, that's funny.  All of The Australian's stories on the weekend about Niki Savva's book were able to be read via the old "Google around the paywall" trick, but none of the Peta Credlin response stories today were accessible that way.  (To me, anyway.)

But, it would appear that she (though not Abbott) has in an interview denied emphatically an affair with Abbott.


But, to be forensic about it, only her answer appears*, not the question, and she does use the line:

The idea that my relationship with the prime ­minister was anything other than professional is completely false

which leaves open the possibility that her comment is limited to the time he was PM.

Thus I'm not giving up on my theory - that there is something further back that has prevented them from outright complaining about the affair rumour and innuendo (or threatening defamation) until now.   (Though, granted, the way Savva has dealt with it does not leave open a defamation action against her.)

*  I actually brought a hard copy of the Australian to confirm - sorry to have spent money on Rupert.

Update:  and, by the way, I am aware of another rumour involving Abbott that does not involve Credlin.    Mind you, nearly all politicians are subject to such rumour, but with Abbott's behaviour and famously "blokey" demeanour I make special dispensation for him for believing there is fire behind the smoke.

Update 2:  Michelle Grattan's take on the whole matter is really quite harsh (on Abbott/Credlin), but fair.

Update 3:  Credlin's actual opinion piece in The Australian today (which doesn't contain the express denial) is really awful - it actually is so close in parts to what Abbott said yesterday that you have to wonder whether she wrote his response for him!

Clive for Donald

Why I’d Vote For Donald Trump

While it's not exactly an endorsement, it's still surprising to read Clive Hamilton saying that he'd vote for Trump (over Cruz, at least.)

Yet more Tony and Peta ...

A couple of other bits of intrigue about this:

*  why did The Australian, normally so pro-Coalition, run with this?  Well, I think the answer is pretty clear - Rupert met with them, later decided she was a liability.  It's with his approval that Savva was protected in her long campaign to publicise the trouble within the government that Credlin was causing.

*  one incident mentioned from the book has Credlin sounding like an uptight feminist:

In government Abbott held a meeting of cabinet ministers in his office and one of them told an off-colour joke about submarines. “Credlin stood up and stormed out of the room. A distressed Abbott took off after her. She walked back in a few minutes later, with Abbott following closely behind her. The prime minister addressed his bemused colleagues, saying: ‘I think we owe Peta an apology.’ He turned to the towering inferno beside him. ‘Sorry, Peta,’ he said. A couple of them, including Joe Hockey, chimed in: ‘Sorry, Peta.’ Credlin then launched into an angry lecture, telling them they were the reason the government was doing so badly among women.”

Yes, but - if she is that sensitive to sexism, how on earth did she put up with her boss's condescending treatment of Gillard?   Really, how can anyone sympathise with Credlin (even from a feminist perspective - like Jane Caro seems to be doing) given her supportive role with Abbott during that?  

An underwhelming set of reviews

*  From a couple of weeks back:  the last episode of the X Files reboot.  Terrible, just terrible.  The only possible explanation seems to be the suggestion I have read elsewhere:  that a studio forced reduction from an 8 part return to 6 episodes resulted in the compression of the crucial framing story to the point of nonsense.  Really, seriously, this needs to be the end of the show.

*  Kung Fu Hustle:  I mentioned last week how this was my first movie hire on Google Play, inspired as I was by Journey to the West to see more work by Cantonese writer/director/actor Stephen Chow.  Well, this earlier effort is not, in my books, anywhere near as good as Journey.  But it is interesting to note his humour style and imagination at play.  And most importantly:  the Google Play system worked well as a standard definition download watched on a big screen via a Chromecast.   The file download was just under 500 MB for a 90 minute movie, if I recall correctly, but the picture quality was fine enough.   Not sure I would bother with a HD download until I get a better TV.

*  Hail, Caesar:   the latest Coen brothers movie was interesting but, alas, a bit underwhelming.   The bits with George Clooney were all fine,  and the most memorable. But his story doesn't take up all that much screen time.  In many respects the movie was of unclear intent - some parts were suggesting an ironic take on big studio Hollywood, but they weren't quite playing that way.   Overall, it was a case of "not zany enough" compared to many of their earlier comedies.  As much as I like some of their earlier work, I still wonder if now critics see quality in their handicraft which isn't really there.  Their screenwriting help on Bridge of Spies, for example:  I didn't think the Coen-ish aspects of the final screenplay were particularly great.   Still, may they keep on working and (hopefully) one day reach a new comedy peak.

The Tony and Peta show

What's with all this kerfuffle about the matter of whether even Liberals thought Abbott and Credlin were having an affair?   The media is all over it due to Niki Savva's book, but as I noted in December, Peter Hartcher writing at Fairfax (perhaps using info from Savva) had written:

Some Liberals and even people from outside the party confronted Abbott before the February spill over the affair he was supposed to have been having with Credlin, the least original rumour in Australian politics. They were worried less about the reality than the perception.

So the news is actually at least 3 months old.  (And Hartcher might be a bit miffed about why it is that Savva can attract all the attention on this story, but it looks like no one reads his columns carefully!)

As I also wrote in December, it was clear that even News Ltd papers at the end of last year were making  innuendo about  their relationship.  Here's what I wrote:

...this seems to have attracted little attention from the rest of the media today.   (I find that odd.   But I find it even odder that both News Ltd and Fairfax outlets have taken to innuendo about Abbott and Credlin - going skiing together, staying in France together, Tony sleeping on her couch instead of spending his allowance on an actual hotel room - and neither of them, nor their spouses, come out to complain about it.  If I were the subject of such innuendo, and if I had not slept with my staffer, I think I could at least muster a press release of denial and then say I was not going to dignify it by addressing it again.  But just remaining silent despite the increasing openness of the innuendo?   Strange...)

Now, since I wrote that, we have had Abbott being accompanied by his wife on overseas trips, which is pretty strong evidence that if anything was ever on, it had probably long since finished.

But amongst (non Right wing) journalists, the only one who I have noticed who outright doesn't believe the rumour is Bernard Keane, who tweeted that it was "a lie".   I'd love to know why he thinks he can be so emphatic about that, given that the line every other journalist of credibility takes seems to me "I dunno, but it's a rumour that's been around a long, long time."

I note that the denials by Abbott and Credlin this weekend have been more along the lines of "we refuse to dignify this rumour with comment" rather than the more outright denial of "this is outrageous and hurtful to my family.  There has never been any affair."

So this is a great and (almost) entertaining mystery.

Let's list the "pro affair" evidence:

*  rumour of long standing amongst journalists and ALP members;  but also believed by many Coalition parliamentarians as the only explanation for his devotion to her keeping her job, and of their strange physical closeness in public;
*  lack of early and emphatic denial when clear innuendo appeared in press last year - even in Abbott friendly News Ltd papers;
*  lack of threat of defamation;

* the example of history regarding politicians and denials of affairs with staffers;
* some public address I saw some time ago where Abbott was joking about believing he had broken all of the 10 commandments, save for the one about murder (people who joke like that are usually sending a message that they hope humour will mask)
* for God's sake, just look at every photo of them taken together for the last 5 years!   They just look exceptionally close, and she has been by his side seemingly every minute when in public.

On the "no affair" side:

*  Credlin talking once about how Abbott knew about and helped her with attempts to fall pregnant by keeping her fertility stuff in the fridge in his office.  Would be remarkably unlikely that anything would be going on between them at that time;
*  despite many anti Abbott rumours about his marriage being shaky, no clear evidence I have ever seen that Marg was ever planning on leaving him;
*  Marg still travelling with him now;
*  his children not disowning him, either.

Using my powers of Holmes like deduction, I think that by far the most likely explanation is that there was some sexual indiscretion between them at some point in time,  one that "leaked" to some in Canberra, but that this was some years ago and (perhaps) was a very short term thing.    This would explain quite a few things:   the profile of Credlin some years ago (in the Australian?, the one where she talked about her fertility problems) which read as a pre-emptive strike about rumours of an affair;  the unwillingness of either of them to talk defamation or to deny in detail any affair;  the possible "giving the benefit of the doubt" of his wife and kids.

I am curious to see if I am ever vindicated in this theory.  

And as to why this matters:   politician's affairs generally don't, but if Abbot and Credlin had a "thing" going when he was trouncing around Australia on the election campaign as a family man with his daughters in tow,  his hypocrisy would be a thing to behold.  Especially given the appallingly sexist treatment Julia Gillard received on matters of her private life at the hands of Abbott and his supporters.  And besides, it is hard to remember any other PM who has taken on such a high profile staffer who can directly share blame for loss of internal support for her boss.   It's nothing like the interest in Jim Cairn's relationship with Junie Morosie, which really was just the conservative salaciousness of the day, as far as I know...

Update:  the more I read the way Credlin and Abbott have responded with variations on a "I won't dignify this with a response" theme, the more I think I am right.

Friday history - English airship edition

There seems to have been a gap in my knowledge about European airship history.

Everyone knows about the Hindenburg crash, but I did not recall that the English tried building their own passenger airships, the R100 and R101, one of which met a similar fate.

This was brought to my attention by a great series of photos at a Retronaut post from November last year of the interior of the R100.  Here are some examples:

The first trip did not go so smoothly:

After a series of tests, the R-100 embarked on her first great voyage. Originally planned for India, the destination was changed to Canada over concerns about the engines’ performance in tropical heat. The R-100 departed from England on July 29, 1930, arriving at Quebec Airport 78 hours later. It flew some short flights in the area and returned to the UK on Aug. 16.
There were a few minor hitches on the journey. A storm caused the outer membrane to rupture, which had to be repaired in-flight and replaced in Montreal. The galley’s electric oven also broke down due to water damage on the way back.

 And then, the R101 met the same fate as the Hindenburg:

Meanwhile, on Oct. 4, 1930, the R-101 set off for a voyage to India. It crashed in France due to bad weather, killing 48 of the 54 passengers and crew, including several major figures of British aviation. 

The Wikipedia article on the R101 gives a lot of detail.

Is it just me, or is this (other) nail in the coffin of hydrogen lofted airships not very well known?

Well, there's always the Ukraine...

Anti love drugs

How far should medicine go to cure taboo loves and desires

A somewhat interesting discussion here of a complicated topic.

Update:  actually, I am somewhat more interested in what potential there is for drug treatment for those who think they are transgender.   I see there is some guy who enthusiastically runs a site listing many studies indicating that transgender operations are frequently not the source of happiness that the patient desires.  There is also a counter post from someone at Huffington Post claiming this is all rubbish.   Links to both can be found via here.

As we seem to have reached some sort of "peak transgender" in American (and therefore Western) culture, I think it is a genuinely interesting topic to see how much of it is tied up with identity politics, a current cultural understanding of "self", and perhaps even a medical industry's self interest.  

But it's a weird topic.  I haven't yet watched the 4 Corners show that dealt with transgender children in a way that some seem to have found very convincing.  And from little I have read about it, there are some cases where the psychological conviction seems innate and (in a young child) not associated with any other mental issue.  I guess I have more skepticism about the late life transgender case.  Married, a bunch of kids, still likes their wife, then can only find fulfilment as a woman?   They are the cases where I would wonder what certain drugs may achieve in terms of a change of mind.

In praise of Tony Robinson

I've mentioned him at least once before, but he deserves another burst of praise.  Tony Robinson, perhaps still best known as Baldrick.  This guy, in case you still can't remember:

A series of his Walking Through History is on SBS again, and recently they ran his three part "Wild West" show.  (Did I mention it before?)  All great to watch, as was his WW1 series a year or two back.

The simple message is - he just makes terrific and engaging shows on history.  If you see any history show hosted by him, you should watch it.

The strange future is here

The U.S. Military Now Offers Egg Freezing for Female Soldiers - The Atlantic

From the link:

While egg freezing is not yet commonplace, an estimated 76,000 women will electively freeze their eggs by 2018, according to EggBanxx, a fertility marketing company. The procedure was considered “experimental” and came with a cautionary warning until 2012, but it would be a few more years before it took its first big step towards the cultural mainstream—in October 2014, Facebook and Apple announced they would begin offering female employees a health benefit worth up to $20,000 to freeze their eggs, and several other private-sector companies have since followed suit.

El Nino to finally bring flooding rain to California? (And drought in Syria)

El Nino’s Long-Awaited Grand Performance Is On Its Way to California
 | Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Could be very wet in California in the next couple of weeks.

In other climate related news, a study suggest the Syrian drought (which may have contributed somewhat to the current disastrous war) is the worst one for 900 years, and could indicate more to come:

War has been the direct driver of the refugee flux and behind that is  a complex mix of social and political factors both inside and outside the region. One fiercely studied and debated driver has been a recent dip into a series of severe droughts starting in the late 1990s.


Previous work has prescribed some of the drought — and its impact on the socioeconomic fabric in the Middle East — to climate change. New findings published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres put it in even starker context, showing that the drought is likely the worst to affect the region in 900 years. The Mediterranean as a whole has been subject to widespread drought at various points in the past 20 years. Climate models project that the region is likely to get drier in the future, which Ben Cook, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said drove the new line of inquiry.

“These recent drought events have motivated a lot of concern that this could be an indication of climate change, with the eastern Mediterranean and Syrian droughts being the most obvious,” Cook said....The projections for the region show a continued drying trend throughout
the coming century as climate change contributes to a shift in circulation patterns. That means what’s happening there now could just be the start of more prolonged, more severe drought. In a region already wracked by water scarcity and conflict, more drying could ratchet up
tension even further.

I take it that the economists' models for future effect of climate change on global GDP have trouble factoring that one in?

Some explanation of how America's odd system works

Primary voters don't really look like America | Guide to the presidential primaries

For starters, it's a small group. Just 20 percent of American adults vote in presidential primaries. They tend to be older, whiter, and better-educated than your average general election voter.

Primary voters also tend to be highly partisan, which helps explain why ideas at the fringes of each party (free college for all, a giant wall along the Mexican-US border) gain traction
during the primaries.

Primaries in the US are also sequential; rather than everyone voting on the same day, some states have their primaries early in the year, some later (for more on why, check out our previous videos).

Unless you live in a state with an early primary, there's a good chance your party will already have a nominee by the time you get to vote, meaning your vote is basically meaningless.

New(ish) physics papers

Noted recently on arXiv, a paper with the attractive title:   Black Holes and the Multiverse.  The abstract:

Vacuum bubbles may nucleate and expand during the inflationary epoch in the early universe. After inflation ends, the bubbles quickly dissipate their kinetic energy; they come to rest with respect to the Hubble flow and eventually form black holes. The fate of the bubble itself depends on the resulting black hole mass. If the mass is smaller than a certain critical value, the bubble collapses to a singularity. Otherwise, the bubble interior inflates, forming a baby universe, which is connected to the exterior FRW region by a wormhole. A similar black hole formation mechanism operates for spherical domain walls nucleating during inflation. As an illustrative example, we studied the black hole mass spectrum in the domain wall scenario, assuming that domain walls interact with matter only gravitationally. Our results indicate that, depending on the model parameters, black holes produced in this scenario can have significant astrophysical effects and can even serve as dark matter or as seeds for supermassive black holes. The mechanism of black hole formation described in this paper is very generic and has important implications for the global structure of the universe. Baby universes inside super-critical black holes inflate eternally and nucleate bubbles of all vacua allowed by the underlying particle physics. The resulting multiverse has a very non-trivial spacetime structure, with a multitude of eternally inflating regions connected by wormholes. If a black hole population with the predicted mass spectrum is discovered, it could be regarded as evidence for inflation and for the existence of a multiverse.

I'm still a bit unclear whether this is relevant to the black hole and information issue.  This gets a mention at the end of the paper, but I don't understand their point.

Another paper of recent interest has John D Barrow, who's been around for a while, as a co-author.  It's Turning on Gravity with the Higgs mechanism.   OK, it's not as if I understand it, but I thought it noteworthy because the authors seem excited that its a genuinely new idea that may help a lot with quantum gravity, and working out the fate of the universe.

Still too radioactive to eat

Norway's Radioactive Reindeer - The Atlantic

Didn't realise that radioactivity from Chernobyl was still causing problems in northern Europe, 30 years later...

Madhouse driven madder

Always full of mad, and frequently offensive, right wing vitriol*, I see that the participants* of Catallaxy** are being driven especially berserk over the clearly poor impression George Pell is leaving in his evidence to the Royal Commission into child abuse.  Not only that, but Andrew Bolt's surprisingly harsh assessment is causing further outrage.  (Don't worry, Bolt will probably recant - he's too much of a cultural warrior to not come back to support for Pell.)

Mind you, I'm still not particularly interested in the matter.  I remain distinctly uncomfortable with the publicity the survivor group is getting.   As truly shocking and terrible (parts of) the Catholic Church have been in this matter, I still cannot get over the feeling that some victims are unhealthfully not moving on, ever; and intense media attention promotes that.

To be fair to some indirect victims, however, such as those with suicide in their family very likely attributable to abuse, it is hard to see how you would ever stop thinking about it.


* average physical age is now up to 70, by my estimate; but mental age:  a cranky 86. 

**  Other recent Catallaxy highlights:  people there cancelling their subscription to The Australian because it's become too left wing [hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha];  the endorsement of Trump by "I'm right and the rest of the world is wrong" economist Kates;  the continuing eccentric obsession with tobacco plain packaging by Prof Davidson; and of course (I'm contractually obliged to mention this at least every 6 months) the continuing failure of the latter's stagflation warning of 2011 - stagflation being the natural consequence of following Keynesian policy, of course.   Now that the global temperature alleged "pause" is well and truly over, I wonder when he'll start talking about policy responses to climate change, too.

Update:  and the predicted Bolt-ian retreat is in.

Yay for a broken record

Of course, if you've been following matters closely, you will know that there is excellent reason to be suspicious of the satellite temperature record, given the complexity of that method of measuring temperatures high in the atmosphere.  

Nonetheless, the psychological effect of having the climate change denier's (now former) favourite graph with a broken record should be fairly big.   At least, if the deniers weren't ideologically devoted to not believing science on this issue:

 

Blame the Tahitians

Last week, I was reading about the effect of Tahiti on the European sexual imagination, and Joseph Banks and his tattoo did get a mention in passing.  Well, it seems from another book (Maritime History and Identity:  The Sea and Culture in the Modern World) that we can blame the current scourge of Western civilisation (tattoos, of course) on the same period in history:

I should add though:  I don't really have an issue with an actual islander person (especially a male) having an authentic islander design on their body, if it is a genuine reflection of connection to a culture that is many centuries old.  (I draw the line at face tattoos, though.)   My biggest problem is, of course, with the garish Western rubbish of skulls, flags, dogs, girlfriend/boyfriends names, slogans, unicorns, fairies and flowers that comprises modern tattooing.

Bringing light to Africa

What difference will Obama's plan to bring power to Africa make? - BBC News

Interesting article here on an American move (with bipartisan support, oddly enough) to bring renewable energy to Sub Saharan Africa to people who currently have no electricity at all.

I particularly like that it notes the infrastructure issues which make your simplistic, "they just have to get some coal power plants built" argument unrealistic.

Malcolm's burden....