The history of a denier meme

The Volcano Gambit � RealClimate

I'm not sure why Gavin Schmidt is re-visiting this right now, but it's still good to read of the origin of the mistaken meme on the matter of volcanoes and their greenhouse gas contributions.

More "in praise of higher taxes"

I'm an American living in Sweden. Here's why I came to embrace the higher taxes. - Vox

There was a very similar article to this in one of the other American sites I visit earlier this year, and I think I posted about it, too.

I feel I should point out something, in light of how often I post about this:  it's not that I'm an ideologue when it comes to taxes and the role of government,  and I don't think every country should (or can) be like Scandinavia.   For one thing, the physical size of countries surely helps determine what governments can reasonably be expected to provide, and all European nations benefit from the small geography and high density of living.  Singapore does, too.

There is also the cultural element that affects the way a government can succeed (or not), so that (for example) a country like Japan can expect societal co-operation in some policies (ease of access to alcohol, little societal interest in illicit drugs) that others can't.

My attitude is more that the international examples of how countries and economies work show us the many ways different tax and government spending regimes can work, so that it is clear that low tax, limited government is not the only way to success and a happy society.

It's more a case that I am interested in showing that the libertarian/small government/low tax position that is powerful in the US and parts of the Australian Right is more pure ideology and belief system than something that is inherently the best way to approach economics and how we should run Australia.

Human misbehaviour less than expected

Fathered by the Mailman? It’s Mostly an Urban Legend - The New York Times

Yeah, I think I have read this before:  the old estimates of how many children are fathered by someone other than their assumed father are way over the top, and many scientists think the true figure is closer to a relatively modest 1%.

Zootopia viewed

Got around to seeing Zootopia today.

Utterly charming, constantly witty but often hilarious; visually pleasing, inventive in concept, not heavy handed in "messaging"; great fun for adults, and intense cuteness in character design bound to please the younger viewer as well.  It's terrific.

The Disney brand on animated movies has, without doubt, replaced that of Pixar as the one to look out for.

Transgender politics

How the Fight Over Transgender Kids Got a Leading Sex Researcher Fired

A truly startling article here from February 2016 about transgender identity politics in the matter of how to deal with children who think they are transgender.   (Added to put some justification into my "cynical" positioning on the current state of our  culture's understanding of transgender issues.)  

Piketty sounding reasonable

Panama Papers: Act now. Don't wait for another crisis | Thomas Piketty | Opinion | The Guardian

Who do I believe, the trader or the libertarian?

Well, this is kinda weird.

Sinclair Davidson writes this morning indicating that he's distinctly ambiguous when it comes to the question of what's wrong with Westpac rate rigging.  (OK, he mentions "poor banking behaviour" in one sentence, then in the next he puts "scandal" in inverted commas, and indicates that he thinks no one can really explain why it's a problem.)   This is even when the trader in question has been widely quoted in the media saying:

"I knew it was completely wrong but f--- it I might as well, I thought f--- it. We've just got so much money on it, we just had to do it, right ...", court documents allege Mr Roden said.

I think when it comes to matters of ethics, and their potential to interfere with making money, don't let a libertarian, or anyone associated with the IPA, anywhere near policy influence.

Update:  perhaps Sinclair should read this post at The Conversation for some ethical enlightenment.

Transgender comment

Readers would know that I am certainly somewhere on the "cynical" end of the scale on acceptance of the current understanding of what transgender identity is all about.   Especially when it comes to the matter of children and the way some parents respond to it.

On the other hand, what is this American conservative panic about transgenders using the toilets they want to use?   I would have thought that a man who wants to be a woman wants to identify with them - not use their existing equipment to present a danger to them.   I mean, I could be wrong, but I would have thought a transgender man (pre-op or not) is about the safest person a woman could find in their toilet - more wanting to exchange make up tips than have raise any issue about sex.

Is the concern that men could pretend to be transgender so as to get their way into a toilet that might give them access to a woman alone?    I suppose...but really, any heterosexual potential rapist could already sneak into a women's toilet if he wants to.

If a woman is concerned by any man who does not appear to be non transgender in the toilet alone, does the law change prevent her raising a concern?

A tale of two business/economics commentators

In the Australian today, I was able to Google through to two columns about the Arrium steel crisis in Whyalla.

First:  Judith Sloan has a piece with all the analytical depth of Nelson Muntz going "ha ha".  Seems she can't actually find a way to blame the union (noting that they have made wage cut concessions), but that doesn't stop her with an implied "AWU.  Phff.  What do you expect..."    And same with the electricity prices increases which haven't actually happened yet.  

So it's to John Durrie to get some actual detail as to what has gone wrong with the company, and he ends with a pretty compelling sounding:

To suggest the company’s failure is anything more than failed business strategy compounded by cyclical markets is a nonsense and that is where the argument starts and finishes.

As for the political responses:  I thought Christopher Pyne came across pretty well on 7.30 last night.  It's remarkable how working for Turnbull has made him sound a much more reasonable politician.

On the Labor side and the suggestion of (I think) some protectionist motivated unionists that cheap steel from China is potentially dangerous:   that does raise a good point - what sort of quality control is there for imported steel?   Obviously, the company overseas manufacturing it would say it meets a set of specifications or standards, but do nations importing it have any systems for quality testing to see whether it does meet them?   Or is it up to private enterprise to do that?   How much of each shipload would you have to test to be confident that a batch is fine?

That's something I have no idea about, but I would hope there is some system of quality testing.

A nervous stop

Shinkansen makes emergency stop in Hokkaido's subsea tunnel | The Japan Times

I see that the underground tunnel that runs between the islands of Hokkaido and Honshu has been opened for decades (since 1988), but the Shinkansen service using it is new.

I don't know:  being in a tunnel 54 km long and under the ocean in that earthquake prone part of the world - it would certainly make me nervous to undergo an emergency stop.

Update:  the Wikipedia entry on the tunnel explains that it is well below the ocean floor - about 100 m or so.   But with the massive shift in the ocean bed during that last earthquake, it may not get wet, but I really wonder if it would withstand the worst.

Also interesting to read that 34 people died in its construction.

If I ruled the world...

....there would be an immediate and permanent ban on "relationship" "reality" TV shows.   Australian night time television is being absolutely overrun by this woeful category of "entertainment" at the moment, which I strongly suspect is primarily watched by women (and the occasional boyfriend or young husband trying to feign interest.) 

And while I'm at it:  the producers of Gogglebox would be jailed, and anyone who had agreed to be part of the show deported.

You know it makes sense...

In Catallaxy watch

I am amused to note how, presumably under the onslaught of Steven Kates's frequent endorsements of (far from libertarian) Donald Trump, the subtitle of Catallaxy has removed all reference to libertarianism and is now merely "Diverse and Independent Media is here".  Poor Sinclair has well and truly lost all control of the place, with the great majority of commenters continually deriding his endorsement of Malcolm Turnbull.  The conservative Boltians (well, when they aren't criticising Bolt for being too soft on the gays) have well and truly taken over.  The only meeting of minds is when SD makes a comment that is at the intersection of libertarianism and nutty conservatism, such as deriding Australian gun control,  tobacco plain packaging, or sex education (of any kind, apparently.)

It would be incredible if it maintains any political influence at all.   But I guess until the Coalition is purged of its ratbag Right elements, it might...

Update:   oh, I see that the change in the subtitle is meant to be a mocking joke about Fairfax.  I don't know that anyone who reads the site got it, though.

The WSJ does not talk for all of business?

Fox Business Pushes 3 Minimum Wage Myths In Just 90 Seconds | Blog | Media Matters for America

I was pleasantly surprised to read this:

Right-wing media have repeatedly pushed the myth that businesses are opposed to raising the minimum wage while spreading debunked claims  that raising the minimum wage leads to job losses. Contrary to Fox Business' claims that business oppose raising the minimum wage, The Washington Post reported on April 4 that a leaked poll conducted by Republican pollster Frank Luntz found "80 percent of respondents [business executives] said they supported raising their state's minimum wage, while only eight percent opposed it." The advocacy organization Small Business Majority found that 60 percent of small-business owners supported raising the minimum wage to at least $12 per hour.

Ant attack

Folklore has it that a surge in ants coming into a house is a sign of rain.   If that's right, and our house is a fair indicator of what in store for Brisbane, I should have been expecting a deluge of Biblical proportions for the last 3 months, at least.

We've had an extraordinarily persistent attempt at permanent settlement inside our house by slow moving, small black ants recently.   They've also seemingly taken a permanent interest in a couple of citrus trees, which is a pest because of the disease they bring with them to the fruit.  (Well, think they farm them, don't they?)

Now, they're even staging a serious attack on my work office (which is not at home) desk.   I rarely eat at this desk - I don't know what they hope for.

I'm off to get a can of spray...

Dark matter experimental mystery

Controversial dark-matter claim faces ultimate test : Nature News & Comment

Good article here about some experimental results which may - or may not - have already found dark matter.

Here's part of it:

Scientists have substantial evidence that dark matter exists and is at least five times as abundant as ordinary matter. But its nature remains a mystery. The leading hypothesis is that at least some of its mass is composed of weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), which on Earth should occasionally bump into an atomic nucleus.

DAMA’s sodium iodide crystals should produce a flash of light if this happens in the detector. And although natural radioactivity also produces such flashes, DAMA’s claim to have detected WIMPs, first made in 1998, rests on the fact that the number of flashes produced per day has varied with the seasons.

This, they say, is exactly whatis expected if the signal is produced by WIMPs that rain down on Earth as the Solar System moves through the Milky Way’s dark-matter halo². In this scenario, the number of particles crossing Earth should peak when the planet’s orbital motion lines up with that of the Sun, in early June, and should hit a low when its motion works against the Sun’s, in early December.

There is one big problem. “If it’s really dark matter, many other experiments should have seen it
already,” says Thomas Schwetz-Mangold, a theoretical physicist at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany — and none has. But at the same time, all attempts to find weaknesses in the DAMA experiment, such as environmental effects that the researchers had not taken into
account, have failed. “The modulation signal is there,” says Kaixuan Ni at the University of California, San Diego, who works on a dark-matter experiment called XENON1T. “But how to interpret that signal — whether it’s from dark matter or something else — is not clear.”

The key to working this out is a number of other detectors that are about to go on line - one in Australia, too, apparently, "t the Stawell Underground Physics Laboratory, which is being built in a gold mine in Victoria, Australia."

Gee.  Hope that survives the science unfriendly Coalition government.*

If these experiments do confirm dark matter as WIMPS, I reckon this will be a more momentous discovery than the detection of gravity waves.  I still think that the excitement about that was a tad overblown...

* Updated:  I see that, while being skeptical of global warming, the last Abbott budget at least funded this research.  

Movie biz talk

It seems to me that Disney is probably in for a great year with its movies, both critically and financially.

Item 1:  Zootopia (which I haven't seen yet) has already made $800 million internationally (with $231 million of that from China!)   This movie seemed to come with not much publicity build up, but I guess its uniformly strong reviews (except from the Nutty Economist - now there's a movie title for you - Steve Kates) means there has also been strong word of mouth and it's just taken off.

Item 2:  to my surprise, as I wasn't very impressed with any trailer I saw, and the source material also holds no interest,The Jungle Book is also getting strong reviews.   Not sure that I would see it, but presumably it will make money.

Item 3:  a new trailer for The BFG is out and gaining a lot of attention (deservedly - it does look like a very visually pleasing film).  Spielberg doesn't always have great outcomes with kids films (see Hook, which was barely passable), but I reckon everyone will be getting a very good feeling about this one.

[And for the adults reading who want to watch something from overseas, I will remind them to check out the extensive list of movies that SBS's on line service seems to make permanently available.   The quality of their free streaming video always seems good to me on mere ADSL; why can't the ABC on line service meet the same standards?  I watched a Dutch WW2 movie last weekend on the SBS service - Winter in Wartime - and it's pretty good.   The eccentric Big Man Japan, on the other hand - not so great, despite the rottentomato reviews.]

The Northern Hemisphere weather see-saw

Record Cold Temperatures Sweep Into Northeast; Another Arctic Blast on the Way (FORECAST) | The Weather Channel

I see that the Arctic jet stream has taken one of its southern wanders over North America leading to some record April cold temperatures.  This after the Arctic was exceptionally warm recently.

Seems a fair chance of a connection, I would guess.

Sloanian economics

Now, I'll admit I know next to nothing about the Australian trucking industry, but I would have thought it obvious that there is a distinct possibility that the large supermarket chains (amongst other corporate customers) could easily squeeze down remuneration for owner drivers to the point that they have the incentive to work dangerous hours just to make ends meet.

Labor's response was to set up an industry specific remuneration tribunal that has come up with something like an award which sees owner drivers get higher remuneration.  According to the government, (and even at least some owner driver bodies*) this is causing anguish amongst owner drivers, who say they won't get work at those rates.  (And who might be telling them that, I wonder?   Their corporate customers, no doubt.)

Riding into the midst of this is Judith Sloan, whose column in the Australian this morning is worth parsing::

But here’s the rub: the highly paid members of the RSRT contracted out the work of determining these rates to KPMG, which used a one-size-fits-all model to work out the hourly rate based on an assumption of annual hours.

But as this hired-gun outfit notes: “The annual hours worked assumption is used to convert annual fixed cost estimates into an hourly payment. Note, the use of this assumption means if a road transport contractor driver works more hours than assumed, they will be overcompensated for fixed costs incurred. Conversely, if the driver works fewer hours than assumed, they will be under-compensated for fixed costs.”

First:  I like the way KPMG becomes a "hired gun" when it comes to making a determination she doesn't like.   I wouldn't mind betting she's more sympathetic to their findings when they've commissioned by someone she's politically on side with.

Second:  does the dismissal of a "one size fits all" approach seems mean she's arguing for remuneration to more accurately reflect worker's needs?  I sure hope so, because that would indicate the rich can afford to have their tax rate increased.  Who knew Judith would be philosophically onside with John Quiggin on that point?

Third, and here's the funniest bit, from her next paragraph:

In other words, KPMG is not making any claim that minimum hourly payments will influence hours and, by inference, road safety. Indeed, there is an argument that if owner-drivers can get higher payments by dint of regulation, they may actually drive longer hours to make more money. (Economics 101: income and substitution effects.)  

Obviously, then, you just can't trust people who might be motivated to make more money than they need to cover their minimum needs.  Seems to me that this suggests companies should cap director remunerations they're prepared to offer:  pay too much and you just attract the greedy and untalented. I didn't realise that was her position.

This seems to be from the Sloanian "heads I win, tails you lose" school of minimal restraint, free market economics.  Minimum wages that no person could survive on (as per the US):  they're great for workers, who should just appreciate that they have a job.  Pay them too much and there'll be businesses sacking workers all over the place.  Pay owner drivers enough that they don't have to work dangerous hours to merely pay their truck loan:  but they'll get greedy.  Can't have that.

It's obvious (but I don't bother calling it Economics 101) that big businesses can use private contractors to screw down costs way beyond what is reasonable - we see it in the courier business too, and (in a similar vein) we get entire business models more or less based on it (Google "7-11 Franchises".)  Whether this approach is the only way to tackle that may be a moot point, but I'm not convinced that this Labor approach is entirely wrong because "unions!"

Having said that,  I guess I have to allow the possibility that the remuneration rates KPMG came up with are unrealistic - but if the corporate customers won't use owner drivers any more because they can do it more cheaply, I would hope that at least some of the owner drivers could off load their truck and get regular employment as a paid employee drivers (and dob in their boss if they are forced to drive for dangerous hours.)

In any event, I still find the arguments put up by Sloan to be self serving and hypocritical.

* although I note that the union guy on the radio this morning said they represent (I think) 20,000 owner drivers.  Seems a lot, and I assume many of them are on side with the union position on this.

Warm water summer

This summer's sea temperatures were the hottest on record for Australia: here’s why

Seems no one's entirely sure what this may mean for the weather for the next year.  (Usually means wetter weather, but the North did just have a weak Monsoon season, apparently.)   It seems unusual because the high water temperatures were behind the Brisbane (and Australian) widespread floods of 2011, but that was a La Nina year.   Anyway, luckily, Brisbane doesn't flood in winter.

An important, overlooked role of the Moon in evolution?

The Moon may play a major role in maintaining Earth's magnetic field -- ScienceDaily

The article doesn't talk about this aspect of the research, but, presumably life could have evolved very differently if there was no Moon, and the Earth's magnetic field had dwindled faster than it has.

Perhaps this is also reason to be pessimist about advance life on other planets?