What is the Mysterious “Nooscope”? Let’s Ask Putin’s New Chief of Staff | Mysterious Universe
Russia has long been the home of crank-ish spirituality; although, as it happens, I'm quite fond of the idea of the Noosphere myself. The possibility of an orbiting nooscope, though? Sounds like something out of Philip K Dick.
What it means for Putin to be elevating someone who seems to take these ideas very seriously is anyone's guess.
Thursday, August 25, 2016
More about "Japanese Schindler"
Documentary sheds light on Japanese who helped Jews escape Holocaust | The Japan Times
I've mentioned him before on this blog, way back in 2008.
I've mentioned him before on this blog, way back in 2008.
The problem of regional predictions
Global climate models do not easily downscale for regional predictions | EurekAlert! Science NewsThe problem has been well known for some time, but I guess this is putting some more specific details into it. Also, it makes it clear what nonsense it was for the head of the CSIRO to suggest we could afford to move on from climate modelling work.
Zhang and Michael Mann, Distinguished professor of atmospheric
science and director, Earth System Science Center, were concerned that
the direct use of climate model output at local or even regional scales
could produce inaccurate information. They focused on two key climate
variables, temperature and precipitation.
They found that projections of temperature changes with global
climate models became increasingly uncertain at scales below roughly 600
horizontal miles, a distance equivalent to the combined widths of
Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana. While climate models might provide
useful information about the overall warming expected for, say, the
Midwest, predicting the difference between the warming of Indianapolis
and Pittsburgh might prove futile.
Regional changes in precipitation were even more challenging to
predict, with estimates becoming highly uncertain at scales below
roughly 1200 miles, equivalent to the combined width of all the states
from the Atlantic Ocean through New Jersey across Nebraska. The
difference between changing rainfall totals in Philadelphia and Omaha
due to global warming, for example, would be difficult to assess. The
researchers report the results of their study in the August issue of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.
Things you probably didn't know about airplane tires
Airplane Tires Don’t Explode on Landing Because They Are Pumped! | WIRED
The article ends by noting that it's really hard to make an airplane tire explode by overinflating, because they are designed to be so strong. I presume they are better now than tires on Orions in the 1980's - as I am aware that an airman lost his legs due to an accidental overinflation explosion in Adelaide in that decade.
The article ends by noting that it's really hard to make an airplane tire explode by overinflating, because they are designed to be so strong. I presume they are better now than tires on Orions in the 1980's - as I am aware that an airman lost his legs due to an accidental overinflation explosion in Adelaide in that decade.
In other natural disaster news
Giant, deadly ice slide baffles researchers : Nature News & Comment: One of the world's largest documented ice avalanches is flummoxing researchers. But they suspect that glacier fluctuations caused by a changing climate may be to blame.
About 100 million cubic metres of ice and rocks gushed down a narrow valley in Rutog county in the west of the Tibet Autonomous Region on 17 July, killing nine herders and hundreds of sheep and yaks.
The debris covered nearly 10 square kilometres at a thickness of up to 30 metres, says Zong Jibiao, a glaciologist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITPR) in Beijing, who completed a field investigation of the site last week. The only other known incident comparable in scale is the 2002 ice avalanche from the Kolka Glacier1, 2
in the Caucasus Mountains in Russia, says Andreas Kääb, a glaciologist at the University of Oslo in Norway. That catastrophic event killed 140 people.
I hadn't even heard of these, until now...
Roman earthquakes
Can an Earthquake Bring About the Fall of Rome? - TIME
With news of the deadly Italian earthquake, not all that far from Rome, I was curious about whether Rome itself has ever suffered a lot of damage from a major quake. The answer appears in that Time article from 2012. Seems from historical precedent that the city is not all that likely to ever be reduced to rubble; but sure, it has had some earthquake damage, and could get a moderately large shake again.
With news of the deadly Italian earthquake, not all that far from Rome, I was curious about whether Rome itself has ever suffered a lot of damage from a major quake. The answer appears in that Time article from 2012. Seems from historical precedent that the city is not all that likely to ever be reduced to rubble; but sure, it has had some earthquake damage, and could get a moderately large shake again.
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Man, he's childish..
Just had a look at the Trump twitter feed:
Don't any of his advisers have the gumption to say to him - "Boss, I suggest you stop using these 'people are saying' and 'virtually everyone agrees' lines - they're seen as transparently self serving and a silly rhetorical device"?
Don't any of his advisers have the gumption to say to him - "Boss, I suggest you stop using these 'people are saying' and 'virtually everyone agrees' lines - they're seen as transparently self serving and a silly rhetorical device"?
Money for access
For people who like to accuse the mainstream media of liberal bias, aren't they are little surprised that the New York Times and the Washington Post both have had articles playing up the concern about the Clinton emails and the "access for money" issue they raise?
I find it hard getting too worked up about this: money for access to politicians (via political donations and attendance at exorbitantly priced fundraisers) is so common now that it seems beyond winding back. True, from little I have read, it seems that the Clinton arrangement incorporated an indirect - but only just - wealth enhancement to the Clintons personally (via Bill being paid by his own foundation?), and I can understand why people think this is a bit rich (ha!) But as for how bad it is for good governance - isn't the problem that to get too horrified by it, you have to show that the payment did in fact lead to corrupt and bad decisions? As far as I can tell, so far, no one has pointed to a clearly egregious example of such a decision as a result of donation to the Clinton Foundation, which lead to an email to Hilary, which led to a meeting, which led to a bad decision that would not otherwise have been made. But I stand to be corrected. It seems from the most recent articles that donors who contacted Hilary or her staff for help often didn't get much "value for money"; sometimes getting responses that were more "I dunno. Good luck with that one. Oh, and thanks for the donation, again."
Anyhow, here's the choice: a candidate who has a long history of doing very well personally out of politics and political connections - sometimes in dubious fashion - but who appears basically sound on matters economic, understands foreign affairs (even if you don't agree with every decision she made - but let's face it, it's frequently a case of not being able to win no matter who you support when it comes to foreign policy, especially in the Middle East), and believes scientists when it comes to climate change - the global issue of the century with dire planet wide risks.
On the other hand - a narcissistic flip flopping ignoramus, with terrible judgement as to who to take policy advice from, who still thinks decades later that his being able to use hairspray with CFCs was more important than fixing the ozone hole.
It's just not a realistic comparison.
Update: I think I can say that this BBC summary of the issues with the Foundation over the years supports my general take on the matter.
Update 2: and here's the Slate take on the matter. Pretty much along the same lines - the Foundation was sort of asking for trouble; or at the very least, doubts. Perhaps the best line in this article is this:
And it's not as if people shouldn't have doubts about Trump's ability to remain a cleanskin. If anything, his refusal to be upfront about his tax returns, and the connections with Russian money (that do indeed go to the matter of direct benefit to him and his businesses), as well as his generically self centred, immature attitude to everything, show him to be a fertile field for future corruption and secret dealings.
Update 3: Here's the Michael Yglesias take on the matter at Vox, more defensive of Clinton than other media. Key point:
I find it hard getting too worked up about this: money for access to politicians (via political donations and attendance at exorbitantly priced fundraisers) is so common now that it seems beyond winding back. True, from little I have read, it seems that the Clinton arrangement incorporated an indirect - but only just - wealth enhancement to the Clintons personally (via Bill being paid by his own foundation?), and I can understand why people think this is a bit rich (ha!) But as for how bad it is for good governance - isn't the problem that to get too horrified by it, you have to show that the payment did in fact lead to corrupt and bad decisions? As far as I can tell, so far, no one has pointed to a clearly egregious example of such a decision as a result of donation to the Clinton Foundation, which lead to an email to Hilary, which led to a meeting, which led to a bad decision that would not otherwise have been made. But I stand to be corrected. It seems from the most recent articles that donors who contacted Hilary or her staff for help often didn't get much "value for money"; sometimes getting responses that were more "I dunno. Good luck with that one. Oh, and thanks for the donation, again."
Anyhow, here's the choice: a candidate who has a long history of doing very well personally out of politics and political connections - sometimes in dubious fashion - but who appears basically sound on matters economic, understands foreign affairs (even if you don't agree with every decision she made - but let's face it, it's frequently a case of not being able to win no matter who you support when it comes to foreign policy, especially in the Middle East), and believes scientists when it comes to climate change - the global issue of the century with dire planet wide risks.
On the other hand - a narcissistic flip flopping ignoramus, with terrible judgement as to who to take policy advice from, who still thinks decades later that his being able to use hairspray with CFCs was more important than fixing the ozone hole.
It's just not a realistic comparison.
Update: I think I can say that this BBC summary of the issues with the Foundation over the years supports my general take on the matter.
Update 2: and here's the Slate take on the matter. Pretty much along the same lines - the Foundation was sort of asking for trouble; or at the very least, doubts. Perhaps the best line in this article is this:
You don’t need to believe the Clintons orchestrated some sort of pay-for-play scheme to know that there is something wrong with a dynamic where it is nearly impossible to prove whether they did or did not.But this is still not the same as showing the Clintons were corrupt in any highly serious way.
And it's not as if people shouldn't have doubts about Trump's ability to remain a cleanskin. If anything, his refusal to be upfront about his tax returns, and the connections with Russian money (that do indeed go to the matter of direct benefit to him and his businesses), as well as his generically self centred, immature attitude to everything, show him to be a fertile field for future corruption and secret dealings.
Update 3: Here's the Michael Yglesias take on the matter at Vox, more defensive of Clinton than other media. Key point:
Here’s the bottom line: Serving as secretary of state while your husband raises millions of dollars for a charitable foundation that is also a vehicle for your family’s political ambitions really does create a lot of space for potential conflicts of interest. Journalists have, rightly, scrutinized the situation closely. And however many times they take a run at it, they don’t come up with anything more scandalous than the revelation that maybe billionaire philanthropists have an easier time getting the State Department to look into their visa problems than an ordinary person would.
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Japanese management style
BBC - Capital - Why you don’t give praise in Japan
This all sounds about right, from what limited amount I have heard about the Japanese workplace. It is all rather odd, from a Western perspective:
This all sounds about right, from what limited amount I have heard about the Japanese workplace. It is all rather odd, from a Western perspective:
Traditionally, the Japanese language had no word for feedback because
it just wasn’t something that anybody did, says Sharon Schweitzer, CEO
of Protocol and Etiquette Worldwide, and an expert on how managers can
assimilate in foreign countries. So they had to make up a word, fīdobakku.
Yet, it’s still simply not something that’s done. “If you don’t hear from
your Japanese manager, you’re doing well,” Schweitzer says. “If your
manager asks for an update on your project, that means you’re not doing
well.”
Managers in Japan aren’t likely to ask for an update because
employees are expected to constantly provide them. It’s a process called
hou-ren-sou and it involves subordinates sending their boss
emails, all day long, about when they’re going to lunch, the percentage
of the project they’ve finished, when they’re taking a coffee break,
everything.
For foreign managers, the temptation may be to reply
with accolades, congratulating them on finishing 32% of the project. But
don’t, Schweitzer cautions. “If you reply and tell them good job, you
will lose face and they will lose face. Just say thank you or don’t
reply at all.”
A second series of Adam
Adam Ruins Everything, And For That We Thank Him - MTV
Yeah, I find this show (which was on SBS on Demand for a long time) good and entertaining, even if I don't always agree with his take on things.
Yeah, I find this show (which was on SBS on Demand for a long time) good and entertaining, even if I don't always agree with his take on things.
Monday, August 22, 2016
I prefer my fish cooked
It's been quite a while since I've noticed any article about catching parasitic worms from eating raw fish, but here's one which goes into a lot of interesting detail:
Parasitic Worms Burrow into Walls of Woman's Stomach After Meal: The worms can burrow into the walls of the stomach or the small intestine, though it is much more common to find them in the stomach, Fuchizaki said. About 95 percent of anisakiasis cases are in the stomach, he told Live Science.
When the worms burrow into the walls of the stomach, the symptoms usually develop within several hours of eating contaminated fish, Fuchizaki said. If the infection occurred in the small intestine, however, the symptoms wouldn't start until one to five days later, he said.
Some people may notice the worms even sooner than a few hours after eating raw fish — in some instances, people actually feel a tingling sensation in their mouth or throat while they are eating, which is caused by the worm moving around there, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Some people may be able to remove the worm with their hand or by coughing, the CDC says. Vomiting, which is often a symptom of anisakiasis, can also expel the worms, the CDC says.
In most cases, people experience pain and other stomach problems because the worms are damaging the tissue of the digestive tract, Fuchizaki said. But some people may be allergic to the worms, and experience an allergic reaction if they eat them, he said.
Because the worms do not reproduce in humans, they eventually die and cause an inflamed mass, according to the CDC.
A problem unsolved
I see via a Jason Soon tweet that the matter of "shy bladder" in men's public toilets is still the subject of articles, this one in Vox.
I first posted about this topic in 2007, and made the very reasonable observation that, with modern public toilet design for the last few decades going nearly always with the individual ceramic urinal, it is dead easy to give each user a bit of privacy by installing simple, solid dividing screens to the wall between each one. They don't have to be floor to head high; and I would assume that you'd really have to have a very serious aiming problem to ever miss the urinal so far that you could dirty one. On the occasion I have been to a toilet incorporating such a design, I liked the additional bit of privacy, and I'm sure I would not be alone.
But yet, I have noticed over the intervening years that, even with new toilets in renovated shopping centres, this is pretty rarely an option taken up.
Why?
As the Vox article notes, and as any male knows, there is a lot of use of the toilet stalls by men who only want to urinate, causing dirtier toilets because of poor aim, etc.
This is a well known and understood issue, so why is one obvious, useful and cheap design addition to public toilets routinely ignored?
Clearly, this is some bizarre failure of the free market, and it calls for government regulation! (An approach Jason Soon would surely endorse - ahahahaha.)
I first posted about this topic in 2007, and made the very reasonable observation that, with modern public toilet design for the last few decades going nearly always with the individual ceramic urinal, it is dead easy to give each user a bit of privacy by installing simple, solid dividing screens to the wall between each one. They don't have to be floor to head high; and I would assume that you'd really have to have a very serious aiming problem to ever miss the urinal so far that you could dirty one. On the occasion I have been to a toilet incorporating such a design, I liked the additional bit of privacy, and I'm sure I would not be alone.
But yet, I have noticed over the intervening years that, even with new toilets in renovated shopping centres, this is pretty rarely an option taken up.
Why?
As the Vox article notes, and as any male knows, there is a lot of use of the toilet stalls by men who only want to urinate, causing dirtier toilets because of poor aim, etc.
This is a well known and understood issue, so why is one obvious, useful and cheap design addition to public toilets routinely ignored?
Clearly, this is some bizarre failure of the free market, and it calls for government regulation! (An approach Jason Soon would surely endorse - ahahahaha.)
The new opiate of the masses
The Virtues of Reality - The New York Times
Interesting idea put forward here by Ross Douthat - that some of the "old" problems associated with youth (rate of violence, unwanted pregnancies, etc) are getting better because they're happy to live in an internet/cyberworld of games and porn.
And he deals with the theory in a non-panicky way.
Interesting idea put forward here by Ross Douthat - that some of the "old" problems associated with youth (rate of violence, unwanted pregnancies, etc) are getting better because they're happy to live in an internet/cyberworld of games and porn.
And he deals with the theory in a non-panicky way.
She can't handle the truth
Oh look, there goes Judith Sloan having an attack of the vapours because an Australian journalist correctly pointed out that about the only agitation about repeal of s18C Racial Discrimination Act comes from white privileged (usually male) people aligned with the IPA.
Once again, I wonder why she doesn't realise that her continual hyperbole (often in the bitchiest tone possible, especially when it comes to other economists) about, well, everything (she's also upset that swimmers were still in Rio after their competition had finished - yes really) means everyone outside of her tiny circle of fans from Catallaxy and the Australian (and that may be exactly the same, tiny group) ignore her?
Update: by the way, I don't doubt that the QUT s.18C case is pretty ridiculous, but seems to me there is every chance that the judgement might confirm that. I wouldn't get into any frenzy about it until the outcome is known.
Once again, I wonder why she doesn't realise that her continual hyperbole (often in the bitchiest tone possible, especially when it comes to other economists) about, well, everything (she's also upset that swimmers were still in Rio after their competition had finished - yes really) means everyone outside of her tiny circle of fans from Catallaxy and the Australian (and that may be exactly the same, tiny group) ignore her?
Update: by the way, I don't doubt that the QUT s.18C case is pretty ridiculous, but seems to me there is every chance that the judgement might confirm that. I wouldn't get into any frenzy about it until the outcome is known.
Kubo (further in the long series - movies reviews no one is waiting for)
Yes, I did get to see Kubo and the Two Strings yesterday.
Some quick comments:
* While I knew that there would be a heavy emphasis on magic, I didn't realise it would be quite as mythological as it is.
* I wasn't sure while watching the movie, but on checking afterwards, the matter of how it presents the Japanese tradition of welcoming the spirits of dead ancestors (and releasing them again) is entirely accurate - see these entries on the Bon Festival and Toro Nagashi at Wikipedia. (I should explain - while I knew that there were countries that did the river lantern bit, I wasn't sure that it was done in Japan, and in this specific context.)
* I get the feeling that the theme of loss of memory might come from some particular story in Japanese folklore too, but I haven't found it yet. And I could be wrong. As for another explanation, as someone at a Reddit thread said, it seems quite possible that one of the writers may have personal experience with a parent with Alzheimer's.
* There are some story gaps which I would have liked to see filled. For example, the underwater experience - it seems there should be more revealed about Kubo by the experience, but it doesn't happen.
* But overall: yes, the movie looks and sounds great, and is often touching. But I really want to see it again in better viewing conditions (there were a bunch of 12 year old boys completely uninterested in what was going on in the movie some distance in front of us, and they were distracting.) I hate to say it, but I doubt it will be a break through financial success for Laika - the themes are too melancholic for children below about mid-Primary school level, I think; some teenagers (who really should see it) will think they are too cool to do so; and while Laika has lots of adult fans, I'm not sure there are enough to help it make a lot more than $100 million per movie.
* So - even if you think there is a chance you might like it - do so at a cinema now. I'd like to see this art form by a studio with real beauty, heart and soul survive.
Message to Tim: you would like it, I am pretty sure.
Update: here's the top guy at Laika, saying that their next movies will be quite different. He suggests that Kubo is like the end of a cycle. I would say that I could see his point if it weren't for Box Trolls, as Coraline, Paranorman and Kubo all do show a great interest in supernatural, after-life issues.
Some quick comments:
* While I knew that there would be a heavy emphasis on magic, I didn't realise it would be quite as mythological as it is.
* I wasn't sure while watching the movie, but on checking afterwards, the matter of how it presents the Japanese tradition of welcoming the spirits of dead ancestors (and releasing them again) is entirely accurate - see these entries on the Bon Festival and Toro Nagashi at Wikipedia. (I should explain - while I knew that there were countries that did the river lantern bit, I wasn't sure that it was done in Japan, and in this specific context.)
* I get the feeling that the theme of loss of memory might come from some particular story in Japanese folklore too, but I haven't found it yet. And I could be wrong. As for another explanation, as someone at a Reddit thread said, it seems quite possible that one of the writers may have personal experience with a parent with Alzheimer's.
* There are some story gaps which I would have liked to see filled. For example, the underwater experience - it seems there should be more revealed about Kubo by the experience, but it doesn't happen.
* But overall: yes, the movie looks and sounds great, and is often touching. But I really want to see it again in better viewing conditions (there were a bunch of 12 year old boys completely uninterested in what was going on in the movie some distance in front of us, and they were distracting.) I hate to say it, but I doubt it will be a break through financial success for Laika - the themes are too melancholic for children below about mid-Primary school level, I think; some teenagers (who really should see it) will think they are too cool to do so; and while Laika has lots of adult fans, I'm not sure there are enough to help it make a lot more than $100 million per movie.
* So - even if you think there is a chance you might like it - do so at a cinema now. I'd like to see this art form by a studio with real beauty, heart and soul survive.
Message to Tim: you would like it, I am pretty sure.
Update: here's the top guy at Laika, saying that their next movies will be quite different. He suggests that Kubo is like the end of a cycle. I would say that I could see his point if it weren't for Box Trolls, as Coraline, Paranorman and Kubo all do show a great interest in supernatural, after-life issues.
Sunday, August 21, 2016
An app for the day
I have a bad habit of forgetting to turn my android phone ringer back on after turning it off for things like the cinema, or a concert. A day later, I might look at the phone and realise that I have missed a call or two for that reason.
Yesterday, it occurred to me that it would be handy if you could set the ringer off for a certain period, to have it turn itself back on later without my further involvement.
And, indeed, there are many phone ring schedulers out there, which you can use for turning it off for evenings, or overnight, etc.
But the simplest one for the specific purpose I wanted seems to be Shush! Ringer Restorer. Works very simply (just turn your ringer volume to zero and it pops up automatically, letting you assign the restoration in 1/4 hour increments.)
What a neat app (assuming it works, haven't fully tried it yet) for my problem.
Yesterday, it occurred to me that it would be handy if you could set the ringer off for a certain period, to have it turn itself back on later without my further involvement.
And, indeed, there are many phone ring schedulers out there, which you can use for turning it off for evenings, or overnight, etc.
But the simplest one for the specific purpose I wanted seems to be Shush! Ringer Restorer. Works very simply (just turn your ringer volume to zero and it pops up automatically, letting you assign the restoration in 1/4 hour increments.)
What a neat app (assuming it works, haven't fully tried it yet) for my problem.
Friday, August 19, 2016
Trump and racial sensitivity
Charles Blow at the NYT writes with some amusing clarity on the matter of Why Blacks Loathe Trump. An extract:
He erupted like a rash onto the public consciousness on the front page of The New York Times in 1973 because he and his father were being sued for anti-black bias at their rental property.
This is the same man who took out full-page ads blaring the headline “BRING BACK THE DEATH PENALTY. BRING BACK OUR POLICE!” in New York City newspapers calling for the execution of the Central Park Five, a group of teenagers made up of four African-American boys and one Hispanic boy, who were accused and convicted of raping a white female jogger in the park. A judge later overturned the convictions in the flimsy cases and in 2014 the Five settled a wrongful conviction suit with the city for $41 million.
This is the same man who is quoted in the 1991 book “Trumped!: The Inside Story of the Real Donald Trump — His Cunning Rise and Spectacular Fall,” as saying:
“I’ve got black accountants at Trump Castle and at Trump Plaza. Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day.”
Coalition: "Yes, we were a terrible, inhumane Opposition. So sorry"
Gee, this outburst of blame shifting and quasi-apologies from Liberals for how they acted whilst in Opposition under the then soon-to-be most inept PM in Australian history are coming thick and fast.
First, it was Tony himself musing that perhaps he should have let Labor try deflecting wannabe refugees to Malaysia instead of driving them to desperation in the dead end societies of Nauru and Manus Island. Half- baked, not-really-an-apology-but-thanks-for-the-thought, no doubt not accepted by the people living in tents in the tropics for the last few years, Tony.
Yesterday, Morrison was happy to point out that he was only following orders from Abbott in that matter. Strange how he nonetheless tied his rising star to a level of secrecy and dubious tactics including high seas bribery against refugees that were every bit as questionable as Abbott's self serving painting of Malaysia as the hell hole of Asia.
And today, Christopher Pyne says "well it wasn't me being the unreasonable one":
First, it was Tony himself musing that perhaps he should have let Labor try deflecting wannabe refugees to Malaysia instead of driving them to desperation in the dead end societies of Nauru and Manus Island. Half- baked, not-really-an-apology-but-thanks-for-the-thought, no doubt not accepted by the people living in tents in the tropics for the last few years, Tony.
Yesterday, Morrison was happy to point out that he was only following orders from Abbott in that matter. Strange how he nonetheless tied his rising star to a level of secrecy and dubious tactics including high seas bribery against refugees that were every bit as questionable as Abbott's self serving painting of Malaysia as the hell hole of Asia.
And today, Christopher Pyne says "well it wasn't me being the unreasonable one":
I wonder how the Right wing Murdoch cheer squad for the then Opposition are feeling now that the politicians they supported at the time are now changing their tune.Leader of the House Christopher Pyne has blamed Tony Abbott’s former chief whip, Warren Entsch, for a series of bad calls that resulted in Labor MPs initially being refused leave during Julia Gillard’s hung parliament.Mr Pyne, again touting his credentials as a “fixer”, insisted he overruled Mr Entsch’s hardball tactic of refusing parliamentary pairs for Labor’s Craig Thomson to attend the birth of his child and Michelle Rowland, who wished to care for a sick child.
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