Slate has an article about rising rates of sexually transmitted diseases in the US, particularly amongst gay and bisexual men, and looks at the question of whether the problem is that those groups have normalised catching STDs as "no big deal" (as well as the carefree attitude towards use of condoms that the Truvada HIV prophylactic drug encourages.)
At the end of the day (and a tad disappointingly for my conservative attitude against promiscuity), the gay writer ends up making the case that the national increase is driven more by a combination of budget cuts and closures of sexual health clinics and conservative attitudes towards restrictive sex education in the red states.
I feel I need more information to be entirely convinced...
Tuesday, January 17, 2017
How climate deniers are fooled
Good post at Real Climate about how climate change deniers are willingly fooled by charlatans.
Unfortunately, it seems that once you reach a certain age, having been fooled for years becomes psychologically an impossible admission. Hence, if you're talking fervent denialists above the age of (roughly) 65 or 70, it seems we're just going to have to wait til they die out rather than continue to try to convince them.
Anyway, here's a key chart from the post that (maybe) I've posted before?:
As the Real Climate post says about it:
Unfortunately, it seems that once you reach a certain age, having been fooled for years becomes psychologically an impossible admission. Hence, if you're talking fervent denialists above the age of (roughly) 65 or 70, it seems we're just going to have to wait til they die out rather than continue to try to convince them.
Anyway, here's a key chart from the post that (maybe) I've posted before?:
If climate scientists were trying to exaggerate global warming they’d show you the unadjusted raw data!
Monday, January 16, 2017
Ancient waters
This factoid turned up somewhere I was browsing recently, although I see it first got publicity back in 2014. Not sure, but I think I missed it then. Here it is:
Which has the odd implication, I suppose, that truly ancient urine is created every day by everybody. It's the sort of science thought that might impress Donald Trump, perhaps?
Which has the odd implication, I suppose, that truly ancient urine is created every day by everybody. It's the sort of science thought that might impress Donald Trump, perhaps?
Another movie review you don't need
Watched 2013's Now You See Me on free to air TV last Friday. Some observations:
* talk about your "high concept" movie with a simple pitch: rogue magicians do bank heists live - while performing in front of an audience! Cool!
* talk about your "high concept" movie that fails to convince: all flashy, swirling camera movement; but wildly improbable and complicated plotting with really terrible characters . Does any character in this movie reach any level of likeability? Barely.
* Woody Harrelson in particular - an actor who has evolved from "likeable doofus" to "smartass with a face that's just begging to be smacked". OK, so his character was meant to be annoying, I think. But unfortunately, his face and manner just fits that role too well.
* how did it get a sequel??
* talk about your "high concept" movie with a simple pitch: rogue magicians do bank heists live - while performing in front of an audience! Cool!
* talk about your "high concept" movie that fails to convince: all flashy, swirling camera movement; but wildly improbable and complicated plotting with really terrible characters . Does any character in this movie reach any level of likeability? Barely.
* Woody Harrelson in particular - an actor who has evolved from "likeable doofus" to "smartass with a face that's just begging to be smacked". OK, so his character was meant to be annoying, I think. But unfortunately, his face and manner just fits that role too well.
* how did it get a sequel??
Prepare ye the way of the ....
That's interesting. (The astute reader might consider this redundant - I pretty rarely post items that are not of interest to me.)
I didn't know that it's now believed that exposure to semen prepares a woman's body immunologically for pregnancy:
I didn't know that it's now believed that exposure to semen prepares a woman's body immunologically for pregnancy:
Seminal fluid contains small molecules that act as biological signals. Once deposited in the vagina and the cervix of a woman, these persuade the woman’s immune system to adopt a profile that tolerates (that is, recognises and accepts) sperm proteins known as “transplantation antigens”.And here's some strong sounding evidence to back this up:
The tolerant profile matters if fertilisation takes place. Immune cells recognise the same transplantation antigens on the developing baby, and so support the process through which the embryo implants into the wall of the uterus and forms a healthy placenta and fetus.
So over time, repeated contact with the same male partner acts to stimulate and strengthen a tolerant immune response to his transplantation antigens. The immune system of a woman responds to her partner’s seminal fluid to progressively build the chances of creating a healthy pregnancy over at least several months of regular sex.
Preeclampsia is more common when there has been limited sexual contact with the father before pregnancy is conceived, and is associated with insufficient establishment of immune tolerance in the mother.Although its frequency seems not so important for preeclampsia, the article notes that sex around the time of using IVF does help:
The length of time a couple have had a sexual relationship seems more important than the frequency of intercourse. In a study of first pregnancies in 2507 Australian women, around 5% developed preeclampsia. Affected women were more than twice as likely to have had a short sexual relationship (less than six months) compared to the women who had healthy pregnancies.
Women with less than three months sexual activity with the conceiving partner had a 13% chance of preeclampsia, more than double the average occurrence. Among the few women who conceived on the first sexual contact with the father, the chance of preeclampsia was 22%, three times higher than the average. Low birth weight babies were also more common in this group.
Combined data from more than 2000 patients across seven studies showed the occurrence of a detectable pregnancy increased by 24% after vaginal contact with seminal fluid near the time of egg collection or embryo transfer. A study of Australian and Spanish couples showed intercourse in the days just before or just after embryo transfer boosted pregnancy rates by 50%.I guess this suggests that couples who want children in the future may be better off in the long run to not rely on barrier methods only as a contraception. Good news for men, at least...
The Rogue and the detective
I finally caught up with Rogue One yesterday.
I think it's very competent, and very watchable, perhaps without being particularly memorable. But I want to comment on a few things:
* I felt there was still a clear bit of the "uncanny valley" going on with Peter Cushing's reanimated face. Actors must be breathing a sigh of relief that the process of even attempting their replacement via computer is still complex, expensive and not completely convincing if it lasts more than a very brief period.
* the creation of very realistic looking alien landscapes in this and The Force Awakens, on the other hand, is so much noticeably better than it was in the 3 prequels, where everything looked fake in a Lord of the Rings way.
* the rehabilitation of the Force as a spiritual thing, rather than Lucas's stupid suggestion that it was just biology, continues apace, and that is a good thing for the series.
* the android K-2SO's design reminded me a lot of the robots in Miyazaki's Laputa, and (of course) I'm not the first person on the internet to notice that.
Then last night we watched the second episode of Sherlock's latest (and last?) series.
I thought it was terrific, especially after the pretty woeful first episode. (My son even indicated he had sort of lost interest in the series after that one!) Seems to me to some sort of redemption for Moffat's writing abilities, too, of which I had become very skeptical.
OK, there was one plot element that was kind of silly and contrived, but I see that many commenters at The Guardian said it was a clever update on the original Conan Doyle story, so perhaps the memory wiping drug was key to that, too.
But it was fantastically directed, well acted, full of funny surprises, and set up the show for many potentially big reveals in the last episode. I hope that lives up to the high expectations everyone will now have.
I think it's very competent, and very watchable, perhaps without being particularly memorable. But I want to comment on a few things:
* I felt there was still a clear bit of the "uncanny valley" going on with Peter Cushing's reanimated face. Actors must be breathing a sigh of relief that the process of even attempting their replacement via computer is still complex, expensive and not completely convincing if it lasts more than a very brief period.
* the creation of very realistic looking alien landscapes in this and The Force Awakens, on the other hand, is so much noticeably better than it was in the 3 prequels, where everything looked fake in a Lord of the Rings way.
* the rehabilitation of the Force as a spiritual thing, rather than Lucas's stupid suggestion that it was just biology, continues apace, and that is a good thing for the series.
* the android K-2SO's design reminded me a lot of the robots in Miyazaki's Laputa, and (of course) I'm not the first person on the internet to notice that.
Then last night we watched the second episode of Sherlock's latest (and last?) series.
I thought it was terrific, especially after the pretty woeful first episode. (My son even indicated he had sort of lost interest in the series after that one!) Seems to me to some sort of redemption for Moffat's writing abilities, too, of which I had become very skeptical.
OK, there was one plot element that was kind of silly and contrived, but I see that many commenters at The Guardian said it was a clever update on the original Conan Doyle story, so perhaps the memory wiping drug was key to that, too.
But it was fantastically directed, well acted, full of funny surprises, and set up the show for many potentially big reveals in the last episode. I hope that lives up to the high expectations everyone will now have.
Saturday, January 14, 2017
If you ask me...
...there is really surprisingly little media commentary given to the fact that Trump blond dupe Kellyanne Conway seems to constantly be trying to run lines with the press which are either subsequently contradicted by her boss, and/or shown to be wrong. (OK, there has been some media commentary on Conway contradicting herself - but it goes much further than that.)
The only I thing I can put this down to is that the Trump transition is so shambolic, the press just can't spend time on every weird contradiction or event - there are just too many to cover. And they all know Trump just denies inconsistencies and thinks that's all he has to do.
The only I thing I can put this down to is that the Trump transition is so shambolic, the press just can't spend time on every weird contradiction or event - there are just too many to cover. And they all know Trump just denies inconsistencies and thinks that's all he has to do.
Spielberg considered (again)
There's a new book out on Steven Spielberg that's been getting favourable reviews, partly because it's by a Jewish feminist, so her background brings something a bit novel to the exercise.
For a bit of a non-review that nonetheless gives a decent run down of Spielberg's life, this New Yorker article is not bad. The New York Times book review is, however, more a review.
For a bit of a non-review that nonetheless gives a decent run down of Spielberg's life, this New Yorker article is not bad. The New York Times book review is, however, more a review.
Friday, January 13, 2017
Updates on Trump in Russia you may want to read
Three things:
* Did you wonder how Pravda reported on Trump's adventures in Russia? As it happens, they did it running a dismissive, let's all laugh at how ridiculous Americans are, column headed "The Adventures of Donald Trump at Moscow's Ritz Hotel". And here's the oddest section:
* No 2's: I see via Twitter that someone has turned up audio of Trump on a Howard Stern show from 2001 in which the other guest (who, apparently, had a girlfriend who Trump had "stolen" from him - ugghhh) said this:
But it certainly helps reinforce the (unsurprising, of itself) likelihood that Trump has had slept with Russia women, if not prostitutes, on (more than likely) more than one occasion.
The question is - was it recorded by Russians and, even then, is the content enough for it to be bribe capable?
* The use of sex tapes for political purposes in Russia was in the news only last year. In a story that I certainly don't recall noticing at the time, Putin was accused by a political activist:
As I don't doubt he is silly enough, the main question is likely - did they?
* Did you wonder how Pravda reported on Trump's adventures in Russia? As it happens, they did it running a dismissive, let's all laugh at how ridiculous Americans are, column headed "The Adventures of Donald Trump at Moscow's Ritz Hotel". And here's the oddest section:
Generally speaking, American policy makers have a serious obsession about natural bodily functions. Last year, for example, it was reported that an unidentified individual, presumably a Russian intelligence officer, defecated on the carpet in an apartment of an American diplomat. Of course, no evidence was presented whatsoever.Furthermore, continuing the "I think they protest-eth too much" line, it concludes:
The story has once again clearly shown the mental abilities of Hillary Clinton's supporters. The Democratic Party experiences a deep-rooted crisis indeed. In general, the story about the adventures of Donald Trump in Moscow's Ritz Hotel has already been recognized as one huge epic fake news both in Russia and in the United States.Gee. They write exactly how Trump talks. Spooky.
* No 2's: I see via Twitter that someone has turned up audio of Trump on a Howard Stern show from 2001 in which the other guest (who, apparently, had a girlfriend who Trump had "stolen" from him - ugghhh) said this:
After Trump bragged that he “took” Benza’s girlfriend, this happened:The site has the audio of the interview up, and to be honest, it's not clear that Trump heard what Benza was saying about what he [Trump] had said about Russia "girls".
Trump: I assume A.J.’s clean. I hope he’s clean.
Benza: Meanwhile, he bangs Russian people…
Stern: Russian people?
Trump: Who are you talking about, Russian people, A.J.? I don’t know anything.
Benza: He used to call me when I was a columnist and say, “I was just in Russia, the girls have no morals, you gotta get out there.” [Trump’s] out of his mind.Trump did not deny making the statement.
But it certainly helps reinforce the (unsurprising, of itself) likelihood that Trump has had slept with Russia women, if not prostitutes, on (more than likely) more than one occasion.
The question is - was it recorded by Russians and, even then, is the content enough for it to be bribe capable?
* The use of sex tapes for political purposes in Russia was in the news only last year. In a story that I certainly don't recall noticing at the time, Putin was accused by a political activist:
Natalia Pelevina, a Russian political activist at the heart of a shocking sex scandal, has no doubts about who is responsible for revealing her affair with a former Russian prime minister.But as for Putin's direct dirty hands in the use of sex tapes, we go back to 1999:
A secret video of her and Mikhail Kasyanov showing intimate bedroom sex scenes and frank private conversations was baldly exposed last Friday on national television.
Pelevina is convinced the Russian security services planted the recording devices to entrap the couple at the behest of the president.
"It had to be Putin. I have no doubt about that," Pelevina told CBC during an exclusive interview in Moscow this week.
She hadn't spoken publicly about the sex scandal since it broke last week. Kasyanov is chairman of PARNAS, a liberal opposition party in Russia. Pelevina is his political assistant and was, until this week, a member of the party executive.
Russian broadcaster NTV aired a 40-minute special program liberally laced with scenes from the secretly taped video of the two.
Out of nowhere, a shocking video appeared on a Russian TV news program late one evening in March 1999. A surveillance tape showed a naked, middle-aged man who resembled Russia's top prosecutor, Yuri Skuratov, cavorting with two unclothed young women. Neither was his wife.It is therefore completely plausible that, if he knew it was potential useful, Putin would give the nod to taping Trump if he was silly enough to be engaged in any form of sex (without his wife) in Moscow in 2013.
The ensuing scandal included a press conference by the head of Russia's FSB security service at the time, Vladimir Putin, who made clear it was Skuratov in the video.
Skuratov soon lost his job, not to mention his dignity.
President Boris Yeltsin was apparently impressed with Putin's handling of this episode. Yeltsin wanted to get rid of Skuratov, who was believed to be looking into Kremlin corruption. Several months after the video surfaced, Yeltsin named Putin to be prime minister, and a few months after that, Putin took over as president.
As I don't doubt he is silly enough, the main question is likely - did they?
A Great Moment in Science
As this interesting post from Discover explains, it was not until 1 January 1925 that it was really "official" that Hubble had confirmed that the Andromeda and other spiral "nebulae" were really galaxies a very long way away.
It's extraordinary to think we not quite 100 years into a proper understanding of the size and nature of the universe. (And barely 150 years into Darwinian evolution.)
No wonder humanity is, in a sense, still adjusting to all this.
To my sometime twitter troll
* I didn't even know what Pseud's Corner was: had to Google it.
* I generally eschew comment on MMA: I assume I would be appalled if I looked into it in too much detail, so I don't bother. Instead, I get my daily fill of "appalling" by checking Catallaxy.
* I generally eschew comment on MMA: I assume I would be appalled if I looked into it in too much detail, so I don't bother. Instead, I get my daily fill of "appalling" by checking Catallaxy.
Weird judgement on display, again
I might have guessed. Despite being no pro-Trumper in the lead up to the election, Sinclair Davidson can't seem to stop himself getting a vicarious thrill whenever a politician (or at least one vaguely on the Right) behaves belligerently to the media or a political opponent. Remember - he was one of the very, very few people in the land who thought Bronwyn Bishop's aggro, hopelessly partisan time as Speaker was actually praiseworthy.
Psychoanalysis via blog posts may not be a reliable exercise, but I continually get the feeling that SD is frustrated that he personally doesn't get the chance to be as rude to people to their face as he would like to be. Or a frustrated wannabe tough cop (or soldier) on a loose leash to clean up a bad part of town - that kind of thing.
The title of his post on Trump and CNN is particularly confusing: CNN has been caught out.
"Caught out" doing what, exactly? Correctly reporting that briefings about serious claims about Trump being compromised by the Russians - or his team co-operating with them for election intel - had been made?
I think the theory that Trump didn't even realise the distinction between what CNN reported, and what Buzzfeed did, has plausibility.
Psychoanalysis via blog posts may not be a reliable exercise, but I continually get the feeling that SD is frustrated that he personally doesn't get the chance to be as rude to people to their face as he would like to be. Or a frustrated wannabe tough cop (or soldier) on a loose leash to clean up a bad part of town - that kind of thing.
The title of his post on Trump and CNN is particularly confusing: CNN has been caught out.
"Caught out" doing what, exactly? Correctly reporting that briefings about serious claims about Trump being compromised by the Russians - or his team co-operating with them for election intel - had been made?
I think the theory that Trump didn't even realise the distinction between what CNN reported, and what Buzzfeed did, has plausibility.
Tillerson & China
A reasonable sounding bit of commentary from The Interpreter about Tillerson sounding gung-ho about China in the South China Sea.
Not sure of the value of this..
Nature has a story with the science fiction friendly title:
Now, while I don't want to come across as a PETA softy, but the details of this experiment make me doubt somewhat whether its scientific benefits make the treatment of the mice worth it. (I say that, though, very unaware of the treatment of lab mammals, generally. There are probably far worse examples.)
My feelings about animal experimentation are still influenced somewhat by the anti-vivisectionist sentiment and argument of CS Lewis. You can read about that here.
Friday Trump dump
* Vox talks to 3 experts who outline the defence Buzzfeed would have to any defamation action by Trump. Sounds pretty convincing to me that we aren't going to see Trump try.
* I was reminded this week by Tim Blair's linking back to a post of mine in 2006 that I used to defend the Bush administration from Leftie panic merchants worrying that he was a Christian fundamentalist who thought the US was inevitably going to have to nuke the evil out of the world. I still take that view: George W never struck me as that kind of Christian, and, of course, nor did his neocon advisers. (Does anyone dispute that they were motivated by misplaced, mistaken and self-interested idealism about the ease with which Western-friendly democracy would organically arise in the Middle East if you only knocked over a dictator or two?)
That said, it has slipped under the radar somewhat that Trump is installing as CIA head someone who really does hold the ideas that both secularists and sensible Christians fear. From Slate:
* Fake news spread by the hit team of stupid and dishonest gay right wingers - Gateway Pundit and Drudge. And no, Trumpkin dimwits, what they did is not the equivalent of Buzzfeed - which published a document noting its content was unverified and contained some mistakes and should be taken with a great deal of caution. Remember, fake news is the deliberate dissemination of disinformation that asserts its truth, or knowingly doesn't care about its truth. Like Drudge running the story of Bill Clinton's black son during this election campaign, and not mentioning that Drudge himself had years ago run the stories showing the medical evidence that this couldn't be true.
Now, I must post something other than Trump stuff....
* I was reminded this week by Tim Blair's linking back to a post of mine in 2006 that I used to defend the Bush administration from Leftie panic merchants worrying that he was a Christian fundamentalist who thought the US was inevitably going to have to nuke the evil out of the world. I still take that view: George W never struck me as that kind of Christian, and, of course, nor did his neocon advisers. (Does anyone dispute that they were motivated by misplaced, mistaken and self-interested idealism about the ease with which Western-friendly democracy would organically arise in the Middle East if you only knocked over a dictator or two?)
That said, it has slipped under the radar somewhat that Trump is installing as CIA head someone who really does hold the ideas that both secularists and sensible Christians fear. From Slate:
In June 2015, Rep. Mike Pompeo, a Kansas congressman, headlined a “God and Country Rally” at Wichita’s Summit Church. “To worship our lord and celebrate our nation at the same place is not only our right, it is our duty,” he began. Pompeo’s speech was a mishmash of domestic culture war callouts and dark warnings about the danger of radical Islam. He cited an inflammatory prayer that a pastor named the Rev. Joe Wright once delivered before the Kansas State Legislature: “America had worshipped other Gods and called it multiculturalism. We’d endorsed perversion and called it an alternative lifestyle.” He lamented government efforts to “rip faith from our schools” and then segued immediately into a discussion of the jihadi threat: “This evil is all around us.” Pompeo concluded by describing politics as “a never-ending struggle … until the rapture.”Great.
Donald Trump has appointed Pompeo to head the CIA; his confirmation hearings begin on Thursday. If a normal Republican president had nominated a figure like this to head the country’s major foreign intelligence agency, there likely would have been a lot of attention paid to his apocalyptic religiosity and Manichaean worldview. Amid the fire hose of lunacy that is the Trump transition, however, Pompeo’s extremism has been overlooked. It’s worth pausing to appreciate the fact that America’s CIA will shortly be run by a man who appears to view American foreign policy as a vehicle for holy war.
* Fake news spread by the hit team of stupid and dishonest gay right wingers - Gateway Pundit and Drudge. And no, Trumpkin dimwits, what they did is not the equivalent of Buzzfeed - which published a document noting its content was unverified and contained some mistakes and should be taken with a great deal of caution. Remember, fake news is the deliberate dissemination of disinformation that asserts its truth, or knowingly doesn't care about its truth. Like Drudge running the story of Bill Clinton's black son during this election campaign, and not mentioning that Drudge himself had years ago run the stories showing the medical evidence that this couldn't be true.
Now, I must post something other than Trump stuff....
Thursday, January 12, 2017
Not just one source
Gee. Why shouldn't Democrats be upset that, while Trump was able to make maximum political use of the FBI looking at what Clinton did with her email server, six government agencies were secretly investigating Trump's team getting money from Russia? The BBC alleges now (thanks fellas, but it's a bit late):
Last April, the CIA director was shown intelligence that worried him. It was - allegedly - a tape recording of a conversation about money from the Kremlin going into the US presidential campaign.
It was passed to the US by an intelligence agency of one of the Baltic States. The CIA cannot act domestically against American citizens so a joint counter-intelligence taskforce was created.
The taskforce included six agencies or departments of government. Dealing with the domestic, US, side of the inquiry, were the FBI, the Department of the Treasury, and the Department of Justice. For the foreign and intelligence aspects of the investigation, there were another three agencies: the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Security Agency, responsible for electronic spying.As for the Russians having the dirt on Trump's bedroom antics, again the same reporter tells us that it's believed by many to be true:
And the former MI6 agent is not the only source for the claim about Russian kompromat on the president-elect. Back in August, a retired spy told me he had been informed of its existence by "the head of an East European intelligence agency".Seems to me that things have gone awry somewhere when you had even the liberal media blowing up the significance of every damn internal Democrat email, and the widely misunderstood and exaggerated significance of how Hillary used her email server, and yet there was no proper reporting of actually explosive matters until now.
Later, I used an intermediary to pass some questions to active duty CIA officers dealing with the case file - they would not speak to me directly. I got a message back that there was "more than one tape", "audio and video", on "more than one date", in "more than one place" - in the Ritz-Carlton in Moscow and also in St Petersburg - and that the material was "of a sexual nature".
How to stack a press conference
It had all the signs of authoritarian showmanship: the 10 flag backdrop for one, but also this:
As Mr Trump likened the leaks to the kind of things that happened in Nazi Germany and detailed his plans for his corporate empire, a coterie of Trump business loyalists gathered by the elevator bank in the tower lobby to urge him on.And a thug for a soon to be press secretary:
The Trump employees laughed at his jokes and shouted out supportive answers to his rhetorical questions. One even took it upon himself to look over a reporter’s shoulder and ask if he intended to publish the words written on his notepad. When Mr Trump was finished, his acolytes pronounced his performance a resounding success.
SEAN SPICER: So, what happened was after the exchange that you just noted, he did it again towards the end, he continued to harass the president-elect. After the president-elect had ended the press conference and been removed from the area, I went up to Mr. Acosta and I said his behavior was rude, inappropriate, and disrespectful of the president-elect. He told me that he thought that had a right to ask a question, even though CNN had been granted a question to one of their other correspondents. I informed him that I thought no one should be treated that way and treated that disrespectfully, and that if he did it again in the future, I would have him removed.It also appears from a "related story" on that page that Spicer's first reaction had been to deny it...
Good reporting/bad reporting
Journalism is pretty odd, hey?
A bunch of mainstream outlets are saying they would not print the full dossier as it was all unsubstantiated; yet they know that it was an election in which absolute fake news and social media promotion of it played a really key role, and that American agencies were concerned enough to be seeking warrants about the dossier.
Putting out allegations, saying they don't know if they are true, and leaving it up to the people mentioned to rebut it, is not the normal way you would want media to operate; but the role of rumour and false claims against Clinton in the election campaign, combined with a candidate who just routinely lies through his teeth, really puts us in an exceptional position.
I'm with many of the commenters in the WAPO who think the media is being a little precious in their reaction. For example, in response to Erik Wemple's criticism of Buzzfeed:
The stupidity of Trump supporters prevents them seeing that.
A bunch of mainstream outlets are saying they would not print the full dossier as it was all unsubstantiated; yet they know that it was an election in which absolute fake news and social media promotion of it played a really key role, and that American agencies were concerned enough to be seeking warrants about the dossier.
Putting out allegations, saying they don't know if they are true, and leaving it up to the people mentioned to rebut it, is not the normal way you would want media to operate; but the role of rumour and false claims against Clinton in the election campaign, combined with a candidate who just routinely lies through his teeth, really puts us in an exceptional position.
I'm with many of the commenters in the WAPO who think the media is being a little precious in their reaction. For example, in response to Erik Wemple's criticism of Buzzfeed:
Okay, Erik, let's talk about reporting of unsubstantiated claims.And CNN is absolutely correct that it was fair to report that Obama and Trump had been briefed on the allegations, without running the allegations themselves. It is exactly the same as reporting that the FBI was looking into the Clinton email matter again, days prior to the election. If that was fair, what CNN did was fair too.
Mr. Trump came to rely on the 24/7 unedited reporting of every muddy, salacious rumor about Secretary Clinton. "I'm hearing people say that..." "My sources are telling me that..." "There's a lot of talk about..."
Those unsubstantiated claims from Mr. Trump have been splashed all over the news media since he first hoisted the "Birthergate" standard.
For some reason, you appear to think we - the media's audience - could be trusted to draw our own conclusions when such unsubstantiated claims were lobbed, because, for some reason, if they were uttered by Mr. Trump, they were newsworthy.
You can't have it both ways. If we are able to draw our own conclusions about reports that Secretary Clinton was involved in a child sex ring run out of a pizza parlor, are we not also able to draw our own conclusions from reporting of material deemed sufficiently important by the US Intelligence community to merit briefings about their substance to the POTUS, PEOTUS and Gang of Eight?
My grandmother would have referred to your opinion piece by saying "He's buttering both sides of his bread."
The stupidity of Trump supporters prevents them seeing that.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Trump the Compromised
A few thoughts after reading about the Trump dossier and assorted commentary today:
* history teaches us that it's a pretty safe rule of thumb to assume that any male politician will have had an affair or ten, either with paid or unpaid partners, over the course of his career. The reasons are similar as for Hollywood celebrities: they're often away from home; they work in a hot house environment beside people who passionately believe in the same causes, and/or are simply shallow groupies attracted to power; and failing that they can always afford to pay for carnal services. But with Trump - well, has there ever been a businessman/politician more likely in the public mind to have slept with a prostitute (or co-worker) while travelling? I doubt it. And as such, the mere revelation that he has done so would not harm him, unless there was an extraordinary amount of kink involved. It's actually not entirely clear from the dossier what the alleged Trump related kink involved - not that I want to know the details, to be honest!
But where it becomes a problem, of course, is if any time with prostitutes was done in such a way that Russia thinks they can bribe him with that revelation.
And given Trumps' routine denials that everyone knows are demonstrably wrong (even about his own previous statements on tape), it is no surprise that a mere claim that it is "all fake news" is not going to be convincing to anyone other than the stupidest of the the stupid who voted for him.
That said, the specifics of what is said to have happened in the Ritz-Carlton do sound improbable. To my mind, it has more of the ring of a "friend of a friend" story: "yeah, her best friend worked as a cleaner at the hotel at the time, and you know what they found when they cleaned Trump's suite?..."etc
* The more important issue, though, as most analysis is saying, is the matter of Trump team contacts with Russians regarding helpful information for his campaign. And the fact that the FBI took it seriously enough to ask for warrants - assuming that the Guardian is right about that - it's really extraordinary, isn't it? That the FBI is concerned enough to be checking into a President-elect's advisers direct involvement with Russian hacking of an American political party? It really casts a terrible pall over the legitimacy of the entire Trump team.
* The sexual element of the allegations is not big enough to distract the public mind from this more important part. Thus Caroline Overington at The Australian is very silly to be claiming otherwise:
It is hard to imagine a President-elect coming to an inauguration with less credibility that what is happening now.
* history teaches us that it's a pretty safe rule of thumb to assume that any male politician will have had an affair or ten, either with paid or unpaid partners, over the course of his career. The reasons are similar as for Hollywood celebrities: they're often away from home; they work in a hot house environment beside people who passionately believe in the same causes, and/or are simply shallow groupies attracted to power; and failing that they can always afford to pay for carnal services. But with Trump - well, has there ever been a businessman/politician more likely in the public mind to have slept with a prostitute (or co-worker) while travelling? I doubt it. And as such, the mere revelation that he has done so would not harm him, unless there was an extraordinary amount of kink involved. It's actually not entirely clear from the dossier what the alleged Trump related kink involved - not that I want to know the details, to be honest!
But where it becomes a problem, of course, is if any time with prostitutes was done in such a way that Russia thinks they can bribe him with that revelation.
And given Trumps' routine denials that everyone knows are demonstrably wrong (even about his own previous statements on tape), it is no surprise that a mere claim that it is "all fake news" is not going to be convincing to anyone other than the stupidest of the the stupid who voted for him.
That said, the specifics of what is said to have happened in the Ritz-Carlton do sound improbable. To my mind, it has more of the ring of a "friend of a friend" story: "yeah, her best friend worked as a cleaner at the hotel at the time, and you know what they found when they cleaned Trump's suite?..."etc
* The more important issue, though, as most analysis is saying, is the matter of Trump team contacts with Russians regarding helpful information for his campaign. And the fact that the FBI took it seriously enough to ask for warrants - assuming that the Guardian is right about that - it's really extraordinary, isn't it? That the FBI is concerned enough to be checking into a President-elect's advisers direct involvement with Russian hacking of an American political party? It really casts a terrible pall over the legitimacy of the entire Trump team.
* The sexual element of the allegations is not big enough to distract the public mind from this more important part. Thus Caroline Overington at The Australian is very silly to be claiming otherwise:
But do you know what really works for Trump? The fact that the sex tape gets a mention in the dossier means that every other piece of information in it – the alleged links between Russia and his campaign, for example – gets swamped.Rubbish.
It is hard to imagine a President-elect coming to an inauguration with less credibility that what is happening now.
The Bannon influence
I think this David Brooks column on Steve Bannon and the different ideologies fighting for Trump's tiny attention span sounds as if it is accurate. But he ends by saying that he thinks even as Bannon fails with Trump, he may have more influence on the next generation.
I have my doubts about that. For one thing, Bannon is a remarkably unhealthy looking 63 year old - the puffy face and general tired look just doesn't suggest to me someone whose health is going to hold up long. And besides, isn't he just a bit of an opportunist who has floated from career to career? I think he'll fall out with Trump - assuming Trump makes it to the inauguration - soon enough and we won't hear much of him again.
I have my doubts about that. For one thing, Bannon is a remarkably unhealthy looking 63 year old - the puffy face and general tired look just doesn't suggest to me someone whose health is going to hold up long. And besides, isn't he just a bit of an opportunist who has floated from career to career? I think he'll fall out with Trump - assuming Trump makes it to the inauguration - soon enough and we won't hear much of him again.
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