Kabul Journal - In Afghanistan, Drugs Hollow Out Lives in Shell of Cultural Center - NYTimes.com
Now that I think of it, there never seems to have been much attention paid to the issue of whether heroin production was causing addiction within Afghanistan itself. (Maybe everyone thought that good Muslims were able to avoid the temptation of a product they were happy to export to the evil West.)
But, it seems they are suffering after all. The article paints a pretty ugly picture of a massive drugs den in Kabul.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
What is up at The Australian?
Until recently, I was never keen on the Tim Lambert (or whoever coined it) term "The Australian's War on Science" (referring to their frequent columns given over in that paper to global warming sceptics.) They are probably just courting controversy for readership, I thought.
But in the last few weeks, at least as far as I can tell from from the volume of skeptic columns on their website, there's absolutely no denying that the powers that be in that paper are heavily promoting climate change skepticism. As far as I can see, they devote very little effort to putting the opposing side in response.
Now look: regular readers know I argue that ocean acidification is enough of a worry to limit CO2, and while it seems to me that the "warmenists" are also very likely correct, I do worry that the exact role of the sun is not properly understood. (It does seem odd, doesn't it, that an unusually quiet period of sunspots is immediately coinciding with a very cold northern winter, and a very early start to winter in parts of Australia?)
But really: isn't it plain to all objective people that a great many of the skeptic's arguments running in The Australian are not science at all? I mean all this stuff that Ian Plimer and others go on about how it is "hubris" to think that mankind can influence climate, or that it is all a UN inspired conspiracy, or is driven by completely corrupted grant seeking by scientists, etc. What the hell has that got to do with the actual science? (Yes, even complaining that scientists have "an interest" in providing results that confirm global warming does not show how their actual results are wrong.)
Of course, a lot of non-scientist environmentalists have carried a lot of ideological baggage around with them, and they can be criticised for that (I've done it myself.)
But when about half (well, that's my guess) of the response to climate scientists work is clearly non-scientific in nature, they are not really seriously engaging in the argument.
I strongly suggest people read Skeptical Science, which has been updated recently, to view the complete list of responses to the warming skeptics arguments. If your only source of information on the topic is The Australian, Andrew Bolt, Marohasy (God forbid), or even Watts Up With That, you are not really seriously following the issue.
But in the last few weeks, at least as far as I can tell from from the volume of skeptic columns on their website, there's absolutely no denying that the powers that be in that paper are heavily promoting climate change skepticism. As far as I can see, they devote very little effort to putting the opposing side in response.
Now look: regular readers know I argue that ocean acidification is enough of a worry to limit CO2, and while it seems to me that the "warmenists" are also very likely correct, I do worry that the exact role of the sun is not properly understood. (It does seem odd, doesn't it, that an unusually quiet period of sunspots is immediately coinciding with a very cold northern winter, and a very early start to winter in parts of Australia?)
But really: isn't it plain to all objective people that a great many of the skeptic's arguments running in The Australian are not science at all? I mean all this stuff that Ian Plimer and others go on about how it is "hubris" to think that mankind can influence climate, or that it is all a UN inspired conspiracy, or is driven by completely corrupted grant seeking by scientists, etc. What the hell has that got to do with the actual science? (Yes, even complaining that scientists have "an interest" in providing results that confirm global warming does not show how their actual results are wrong.)
Of course, a lot of non-scientist environmentalists have carried a lot of ideological baggage around with them, and they can be criticised for that (I've done it myself.)
But when about half (well, that's my guess) of the response to climate scientists work is clearly non-scientific in nature, they are not really seriously engaging in the argument.
I strongly suggest people read Skeptical Science, which has been updated recently, to view the complete list of responses to the warming skeptics arguments. If your only source of information on the topic is The Australian, Andrew Bolt, Marohasy (God forbid), or even Watts Up With That, you are not really seriously following the issue.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Science notes from all over
* Back in 2006, I posted about some doubts about the effectiveness of widespread flu vaccination. Now, Norman Swan on the Health Report has a guest explaining why the benefits are actually so small they are hard to measure. My mum continues to be vindicated, it seems.
* My other favourite Radio National broadcaster, Alan Saunders, talks about philosophy and quantum mechanics. It's a pretty good discussion and summary of the topic, I reckon, and well worth reading. (Retro-causation gets a mention too, but not enough discussion.)
* This post at Cosmic Variance has embedded a recent Daily Show clip dealing with the Large Hadron Collider but (to my mind) with only slight comic effect. However, there is no doubt that Walter Wagner, who is also interviewed in the clip, does his credibility a lot of harm when he describes how it is that he believes the chance of a micro black hole being created is 50/50. (He's the guy who sued in Hawaii to try to stop the LHC, but I hasten to point out that I have never given him any direct support.) I note that the show does not mention Plaga, who appears to be a much more credible figure with concerns about micro black holes.
* As for psychology, The Economist reports that how well you smile in your college appears to have some predictive power as to whether you will divorce in future. Say "cheese" for future happiness...:)
* My other favourite Radio National broadcaster, Alan Saunders, talks about philosophy and quantum mechanics. It's a pretty good discussion and summary of the topic, I reckon, and well worth reading. (Retro-causation gets a mention too, but not enough discussion.)
* This post at Cosmic Variance has embedded a recent Daily Show clip dealing with the Large Hadron Collider but (to my mind) with only slight comic effect. However, there is no doubt that Walter Wagner, who is also interviewed in the clip, does his credibility a lot of harm when he describes how it is that he believes the chance of a micro black hole being created is 50/50. (He's the guy who sued in Hawaii to try to stop the LHC, but I hasten to point out that I have never given him any direct support.) I note that the show does not mention Plaga, who appears to be a much more credible figure with concerns about micro black holes.
* As for psychology, The Economist reports that how well you smile in your college appears to have some predictive power as to whether you will divorce in future. Say "cheese" for future happiness...:)
Innovation from the country you can always trust
Birth control for men in one injection - Science, News - The Independent
From the report:
From the report:
Researchers at the National Research for Family Planning in Beijing injected 1,000 healthy, fertile male patients with a testosterone-based jab over a two-year period and found only 1 per cent went on to father a child....Tea seed oil? Make mine Earl Grey with milk, but hold the melamine, thanks.
For the testing in China, a country which has invested heavily in reproductive technology because of its overpopulation problems, the men were given 500mg of testosterone undecanoate (TU) in tea seed oil. ...
The scientists claim that there were none of the usual side-effects and say the process is reversible. Six months after coming off the injections, the men's sperm count had returned to healthy levels.
Hollywood woes noted, and corrected
Film - Memos to Hollywood - NYTimes.com
A few days ago, the New York Times movie critics (AO Scott and Manohola Dargis) had an article which listed via mock memos all of the problems they could see with current Hollywood movies.
Many of them are pretty obvious, but it's good to have such high profile critics take a "meta" view of the industry.
One complaint that did strike me as odd, though, was this one by Dargis:
But Dargis does hit the spot with this complaint "To: Filmmakers, especially under 40":
Here's a few Opinion Dominion suggestions for improving Hollywood product:
1. Get a new bunch of 20's-ish lead actors with charisma and charm. These are qualities sorely lacking for the last decade or two. If they have it, we'll get a good few decades enjoyment out of following their career.
2. Having found a bunch of new actors, consider signing them up to "morality clauses". OK, maybe just call them "don't do anything to draw too much attention to your private life" clauses. Maybe this means a re-invigoration of the old studio system, but that's not a bad thing is it? Sure, the old stars had private lives that were a complete mess, but at the least the public had the pretence that there were fine real-life examples to follow amongst the famous. And you could watch a fictional heterosexual couple on screen without thinking "hmm, I wonder if she'll ever go back to being straight again in real life".
3. Here's a new genre to try: some optimistic science fiction. Ones that show good technology leading to a (basically) happy, expansive role for humanity in the universe. For example, we've never seen science fiction films showing space elevators, extensive lunar or L5 style space colonies where people like to live, asteroid mining, solar sails used to propel spacecraft, or plenty of cheap energy from fusion or other new sources (I don't count the "Mr Fusion" from "Back to the Future".) Yet these are all concepts that have been around in science fiction writing for decades and are a lot closer to possible realisation than interstellar travel.
4. How about another new theme to revive: movies that show some traditional Christians as basically good and decent people; not simple minded right wing hypocrites. (Australian film makers please take special note.)
5. Stop half-inadvertently glamorising drug use and murderous criminals (and someone find Quentin Tarintino a new hobby, quickly. I have seen a bit of From Dusk to Dawn - he wrote and starred in it - on some cable channel recently. It's appalling.) Try to encourage good behaviour in your audience for a change, in at least half of your product anyway.
6. Go back to 1950's standards when writing stories involving sex. Adults can understand that couples are lovers in hundreds of different ways other than by seeing them in bed. It's more creative too.
7. Yes, Nazis stories probably need a rest for a few years, but there are other WWII true life incidents in other theatres that have never been dealt with. Go looking for rarely heard real life stories and base movies around them.
8. If you can't find a new real-life story, then the fictional "secret story" behind a famous real life event is often a pleasing genre. It is certainly much better than movies which purport to be historical yet at crucial points completely lie about the actual history ("Braveheart", that second Elizabeth movie, "Australia.")
9. Make more movies cheaper (except in Australia, where it is impossible for many to look less populated.) A shot gun approach at least helps get over the fact that 90% of everything is crap, and DVDs help cheap sleeper hits become profitable anyway.
A few days ago, the New York Times movie critics (AO Scott and Manohola Dargis) had an article which listed via mock memos all of the problems they could see with current Hollywood movies.
Many of them are pretty obvious, but it's good to have such high profile critics take a "meta" view of the industry.
One complaint that did strike me as odd, though, was this one by Dargis:
Enough with the gay slurs, the gay baiting, imitating, limp-wristing, so-not-funny lisping — in other words, enough with the hating. Yeah, some gay men are hilarious (Oscar Wilde). But people are funny, their identities are not. Try this simple test: Every time you feel the need to mock or denigrate gay men or lesbians, replace that joke with an equally vicious dig about African-Americans or Jews. Doesn’t sound so funny anymore, does it?Not that I see many movies rated more than PG these days, but I wasn't aware of any controversy about Hollywood producing many "gay slurs" recently. (The comedies based on straight men having to pretend they are gay were not, I thought, regarded as good comedies, but not because they were particularly offensive to gays.)
But Dargis does hit the spot with this complaint "To: Filmmakers, especially under 40":
The tripod is your friend. Few filmmakers can pull off florid handheld camerawork because most aren’t saying all that much through their visuals, handheld or not. (Also: Shaking the camera does not create realism.)The last memo lists all of the genres Scott and Dargis are sick of, but it's a little long to copy here.
Here's a few Opinion Dominion suggestions for improving Hollywood product:
1. Get a new bunch of 20's-ish lead actors with charisma and charm. These are qualities sorely lacking for the last decade or two. If they have it, we'll get a good few decades enjoyment out of following their career.
2. Having found a bunch of new actors, consider signing them up to "morality clauses". OK, maybe just call them "don't do anything to draw too much attention to your private life" clauses. Maybe this means a re-invigoration of the old studio system, but that's not a bad thing is it? Sure, the old stars had private lives that were a complete mess, but at the least the public had the pretence that there were fine real-life examples to follow amongst the famous. And you could watch a fictional heterosexual couple on screen without thinking "hmm, I wonder if she'll ever go back to being straight again in real life".
3. Here's a new genre to try: some optimistic science fiction. Ones that show good technology leading to a (basically) happy, expansive role for humanity in the universe. For example, we've never seen science fiction films showing space elevators, extensive lunar or L5 style space colonies where people like to live, asteroid mining, solar sails used to propel spacecraft, or plenty of cheap energy from fusion or other new sources (I don't count the "Mr Fusion" from "Back to the Future".) Yet these are all concepts that have been around in science fiction writing for decades and are a lot closer to possible realisation than interstellar travel.
4. How about another new theme to revive: movies that show some traditional Christians as basically good and decent people; not simple minded right wing hypocrites. (Australian film makers please take special note.)
5. Stop half-inadvertently glamorising drug use and murderous criminals (and someone find Quentin Tarintino a new hobby, quickly. I have seen a bit of From Dusk to Dawn - he wrote and starred in it - on some cable channel recently. It's appalling.) Try to encourage good behaviour in your audience for a change, in at least half of your product anyway.
6. Go back to 1950's standards when writing stories involving sex. Adults can understand that couples are lovers in hundreds of different ways other than by seeing them in bed. It's more creative too.
7. Yes, Nazis stories probably need a rest for a few years, but there are other WWII true life incidents in other theatres that have never been dealt with. Go looking for rarely heard real life stories and base movies around them.
8. If you can't find a new real-life story, then the fictional "secret story" behind a famous real life event is often a pleasing genre. It is certainly much better than movies which purport to be historical yet at crucial points completely lie about the actual history ("Braveheart", that second Elizabeth movie, "Australia.")
9. Make more movies cheaper (except in Australia, where it is impossible for many to look less populated.) A shot gun approach at least helps get over the fact that 90% of everything is crap, and DVDs help cheap sleeper hits become profitable anyway.
Welcome back, Annabel
Annabel Crabb
Annabel Crabb makes a welcome return to Fairfax today with the above witty column on Rudd delaying the ETS. I liked this section in particular:
Annabel Crabb makes a welcome return to Fairfax today with the above witty column on Rudd delaying the ETS. I liked this section in particular:
Yet the changes are enough to convince John Quiggin. He's pretty easily swayed, if you ask me. For example, I am not at all sure how Rudd's new idea that (as quoted by Quiggin):What was surprising was the bold attempt to portray the inevitable backdown as some sort of toughening.
"These changes today are all about strengthening the carbon pollution reduction scheme," insisted Penny Wong.
Mercilessly, the Prime Minister spelled out the details of the tough new measures.
First, there would be a year's delay. Ouch!
As if that alone weren't brutal enough, big polluters would be forced to accept more money from the Government.
And they would be obliged to pay a carbon price that has been remorselessly lowered to $10 a tonne by rapacious Rudd.
"Bring on … the comfy chair!" you almost expected the PM to pronounce, as he detailed his fluffy instruments of torture. Rudd hates to be wrong.
Households would be able to calculate their energy use and then make donations to fund which would then buy and cancel carbon permitsis actually different from what householders could have voluntarily done under the first version of the scheme.
A dream of Greeneland
Last night's dreams included this great jumble (sources are noted): I was in Malaysia (talk yesterday of a relative living there) on a really dark night in a bar, warning some bloke that I had overheard that his girlfriend was working for the CIA and had a large role in the recent overthrow of the government (Graham Greene). One of the other characters in the dream, of uncertain role, was Elliot from Scrubs (I've been enjoying a recent series run on Comedy Channel - where JD got his new girlfriend pregnant). After issuing my warning, I caught a taxi which I had to share with a woman who wanted to be driven to Calcutta (that ABC series "The Story of India", of which I keep only seeing snippets, but it makes India look very pretty.)
Anyhow, back to Graham Greene, there is yet another book out about him, reviewed here at Weekly Standard, about his correspondence. The review sums up Greene's thoughts about fiction, which probably explain why he is of interest to me:
Anyhow, back to Graham Greene, there is yet another book out about him, reviewed here at Weekly Standard, about his correspondence. The review sums up Greene's thoughts about fiction, which probably explain why he is of interest to me:
After the death of Henry James, according to Greene, "the religious sense was lost to the English novel, and with the religious sense went the sense of the importance of the human act." Consequently, Greene's own work--especially the major books of what one might call his middle period: Brighton Rock, The Power and the Glory, The Heart of the Matter, and The End of the Affair--sought to reinvest contemporary fiction with moral seriousness, to depict solid and real people trapped in life-or-death ethical dilemmas and racked by guilt and despair.
Friday, May 01, 2009
The disappearing eels
Eels in crisis after 95% decline in last 25 years | Environment | The Guardian
I wonder if Australian eels are still abundant: I know I saw a good number of them in the pond in the old botanic gardens in Brisbane a couple of weeks ago.
Anyhow, I suppose most people know about the remarkable life cycle of eels? Just in case you don't, here's the Guardian's summary:
I wonder if Australian eels are still abundant: I know I saw a good number of them in the pond in the old botanic gardens in Brisbane a couple of weeks ago.
Anyhow, I suppose most people know about the remarkable life cycle of eels? Just in case you don't, here's the Guardian's summary:
Australian eels apparently spawn in the Coral Sea near New Caledonia. It seems odd that there still seems some uncertainty about this.The eel remains one of the world's most mysterious creatures. It is generally accepted that European eels - Anguilla anguilla - are born in the Sargasso Sea near Bermuda.
As leaf-like larvae, they are swept by the Gulf Stream towards Europe, a journey that may take a year. When the larvae reach the continental shelf they change into "glass eels" and in the spring begin to move through estuaries and into freshwater.
The animals develop pigmentation, at which point they are known as elvers and are similar in shape to the adult eel. Elvers continue to move upstream and again change colour to become brown or yellow eels.
When the fish reach full maturity - some can live to 40 and grow to 1m long - they migrate back to the ocean. Females are reported to carry as many as 10m eggs. They return to the Sargasso Sea, spawn and die.
Addiction in Saudi Arabia
Gulfnews: Young Saudi men go wild over notorious blue pill
Riyadh: The kingdom has been gripped with a craze for erectile-dysfunction medications by young men - an occurrence which has many worried.
A large number of married Saudi youths are flocking to pharmacies to take hold of Viagra - "the little blue pill" - or any other stimulants that will give them more satisfaction.
The catchy words and obscene images that appear on online advertisements of these medications are another factor luring youth into buying packets of these stimulants.
What, are they just available over the counter there? I like this tragic story:
Mohammad Nassir Al Qah'tani, said: "I started taking stimulant during the very first week after my marriage at the instance of one of my friends. This was an impressive experience for me and my wife."
He added that he stopped using the stimulants at the advice of a doctor but added that his sudden stoppage resulted in some mental disturbance.
And this:
Another young man, called M.A., said that he became addicted to the stimulant and could not make love to his wife without using the pill. He said he was now considering seeking psychiatric help.Poor boy.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Bad news day
The global warming sites will be busy over the next few days digesting a couple of new papers in Nature talking about the huge reduction in fossil fuel use believed to be needed just to keep warming within 2 degrees:
And what will astronauts do on an asteroid that a space probe couldn't do as well?
Oh well, at least I'll be able to live in a cyberworld from my underground bunker (while the backyard bakes over summer) when Kevin Rudd's high speed internet comes on line.
Oh, wait a minute. Not even that?
Both papers come to the same broad conclusion, summarized in our figure, that unless humankind puts on the brakes very quickly and aggressively (i.e. global reductions of 80% by 2050), we face a high probability of driving climate beyond a 2°C threshold taken by both studies as a “danger limit”....Well, I was hoping to buy an apartment on the moon by 2050 to avoid all that trouble, but NASA may be spoiling my contingency plans:
We feel compelled to note that even a "moderate" warming of 2°C stands a strong chance of provoking drought and storm responses that could challenge civilized society, leading potentially to the conflict and suffering that go with failed states and mass migrations. Global warming of 2°C would leave the Earth warmer than it has been in millions of years, a disruption of climate conditions that have been stable for longer than the history of human agriculture.
NASA will probably not build an outpost on the moonThis is just goofy if you ask me. Look at all the trouble with just piecing together a modestly sized space station, coming up with a new rocket to get there, and the unresolved issue of protection from deep space radiation. If you can't even work out to have a base on a place only a couple of days away from the earth, you may as well give up on Mars planning for now too.as originally planned, the agency's acting administrator, Chris Scolese, told lawmakers on Wednesday. His comments also hinted that the agency is open to putting more emphasis on human missions to destinations like Mars or a near-Earth asteroid.
And what will astronauts do on an asteroid that a space probe couldn't do as well?
Oh well, at least I'll be able to live in a cyberworld from my underground bunker (while the backyard bakes over summer) when Kevin Rudd's high speed internet comes on line.
Oh, wait a minute. Not even that?
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Searching this blog
Ack! I did a post today at LP suggesting people could search my blog for my ocean acidification posts. Now that I've tried that myself, I see the Search Blog function is worse than it ever was, and clearly does not list all of my posts for "ocean acidification".
To add insult to injury, I just went and added a label to each post that I could find (39 all up), but still, in Blogger, clicking on the label does not bring up all of the past posts! This is very unhelpful.
In fact, the only way I can see to find all of the posts is to do a Google Blog advanced search, asking it to find "ocean acidification" just in my blog.
This is not good. Why is the Blogger "Search blog" function so unhelpful, even with labels?
To add insult to injury, I just went and added a label to each post that I could find (39 all up), but still, in Blogger, clicking on the label does not bring up all of the past posts! This is very unhelpful.
In fact, the only way I can see to find all of the posts is to do a Google Blog advanced search, asking it to find "ocean acidification" just in my blog.
This is not good. Why is the Blogger "Search blog" function so unhelpful, even with labels?
Weekend hobbies for evil tech nerds
Think twice before you go wireless - Digital Life - smh.com.au
I never use free wireless networks, but those netbooks look terribly cute, and I suspect I'll eventually own one. (Their origin was recently discussed at LP.)
Anyhow, the Sydney Morning Herald points out the security risks in using them that way:
I never use free wireless networks, but those netbooks look terribly cute, and I suspect I'll eventually own one. (Their origin was recently discussed at LP.)
Anyhow, the Sydney Morning Herald points out the security risks in using them that way:
...anyone who knows how to use Google can find step-by- step instructions on how to set up a wireless trap.Well, I guess I know now how to be careful when using these, but I bet this takes a while to become common knowledge.All one needs to do is find a place where tourists congregate, like a McBurger joint, and set up a wireless networking relay station on a laptop. When the tourist goes to log on to the free wireless, they can be easily duped into logging on to a bogus network.
This could be as simple as calling the fake network "McBurger Free Network". It looks and sounds legit and because the repeater computer is close by, it will likely have the strongest signal of all available networks.
It doesn't help that many networks don't use descriptive names, making the fakes seem even more authentic. Once connected, everything the tourist's computer transmits can be captured and recorded. While you sit digging the free wireless, bad guys are cleaning out your bank account.
This con also works if the bogus "hotspot" is not free because all the crooks have to do then is set up a phony payment page that captures credit card numbers. Yikes!
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The dangerous piano
Krystian Zimerman's shocking Disney Hall debut
A Polish pianist gets all political before his concert in the USA:
A Polish pianist gets all political before his concert in the USA:
One reason he is a little tetchy with the USA is kind of funny, though:Before playing the final work on his recital... Zimerman sat silently at the piano for a moment, almost began to play, but then turned to the audience. In a quiet but angry voice that did not project well, he indicated that he could no longer play in a country whose military wants to control the whole world.
“Get your hands off of my country,” he said. He also made reference to the U.S. military detention camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Zimerman has had problems in the United States in recent years. He travels with his own Steinway piano, which he has altered himself. But shortly after 9/11, the instrument was confiscated at JFK Airport when he landed in New York to give a recital at Carnegie Hall. Thinking the glue smelled funny, the TSA decided to take no chances and destroyed the instrument.
Conspiracy nutters get the flu
Little Green Footballs - Bad Craziness Watch: Glenn Beck Fans and Swine Flu Conspiracies
Oh dear. I don't read LGF regularly enough to understand why he has become such a controversial figure in the right wing blogosphere (being against creationists can't be enough, can it?) but he does a useful service here by pointing to the conspiracy theories that Glenn Beck followers have devised about swine flu.
I also haven't watched enough Glenn Beck to decide whether or not he is a cynical actor, a nut, or (probably most likely) some undecipherable combination of both. Slate's take on him seems pretty accurate. (Looking on the bright side, even for those who can't stand Bill O'Reilly, Beck makes him look like a paradigm of cool reason.)
The main question may be: is he smart enough to worry about the nutters he attracts?
Oh dear. I don't read LGF regularly enough to understand why he has become such a controversial figure in the right wing blogosphere (being against creationists can't be enough, can it?) but he does a useful service here by pointing to the conspiracy theories that Glenn Beck followers have devised about swine flu.
I also haven't watched enough Glenn Beck to decide whether or not he is a cynical actor, a nut, or (probably most likely) some undecipherable combination of both. Slate's take on him seems pretty accurate. (Looking on the bright side, even for those who can't stand Bill O'Reilly, Beck makes him look like a paradigm of cool reason.)
The main question may be: is he smart enough to worry about the nutters he attracts?
Douglas Adams was wrong
Cosmic numbers: Pauli and Jung's love of numerology - New Scientist
Hey, some interesting stuff here about a famous quantum scientist and his dealings with Jung:
Hey, some interesting stuff here about a famous quantum scientist and his dealings with Jung:
Pauli was troubled by the number 137. As physicists pored over the equations that determine the spectra of the chemical elements, a particular combination of physical constants kept cropping up. Referred to as the "fine structure constant", it combined the speed of light (crucial in Einstein's relativity) and Planck's constant (the heart of quantum theory), along with the magnitude of the charge of an electron. By themselves, each of these has to be expressed in some particular units (say, metres per second for the speed of light), but combined, the result is a unitless "pure number". Arnold Somerfeld first worked out its value as 0.00729, equivalent to (roughly) 1/137.Clearly, the answer to life, the universe and everything is not 42.Why 137? Pauli obsessed over it, and he wasn't the only great physicist to do so: Arthur Eddington, Enrico Fermi and Richard Feynman all took stabs at it over the years. Meanwhile Jung, with his knowledge of Kabbalah, also found enormous significance in 137. Every letter in the Hebrew alphabet has a number associated with it, and - lo and behold - the letters in the word "Kabbalah" add up to 137. Remarkable - or a meaningless coincidence.
O'Rourke talks Smith
Philosophers Zone - Philosophy and The Wealth of Nations - P.J. O'Rourke
I heard most of this on the radio yesterday, and PJ was both interesting and witty. You can listen to it, or read the transcript, via the link above.
I heard most of this on the radio yesterday, and PJ was both interesting and witty. You can listen to it, or read the transcript, via the link above.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Bizarrely creative
Found via Japundit, here's a Japanese ad that is both remarkably silly and gives new meaning to "in questionable taste".
Yowie defamation
'Yowie not to blame for death' - Northern Territory News
"Cryptonaturalist": what a great job description.
"Cryptonaturalist": what a great job description.
On tidying the book shelves
This weekend I attacked the bookshelves which were dusty and untidy: they had never been properly re-sorted into subject areas since we moved into the current house 6 years ago. (I said to friends that now that it is done, there will probably be some reason we have to move again within 6 months and the whole 6 year cycle will start again.)
Here's the broad categories I use:
* science fiction (mostly old, since there is little written now that appeals to me. I had forgotten how complete my Robert Heinlein collection was; I have even kept his crappy later novels. But I did re-read one of his "juveniles" recently, and his style stands the test of time, I reckon.)
* other fiction (a lot of Evelyn Waugh, and a smattering of other authors, none of them very recent)
* religion (CS Lewis features prominently, but quite a few books on modern theology and religion generally, including by arch non-realist Don Cuppitt.)
* the paranormal and UFO's (are J Allen Hyneks' books still in print? They were the best of their type, but I also have Allen Hendry's great UFO Handbook.) To balance that out, I also have read Phillip Klass's skeptical books.
* philosophy and psychology (not much in the way of original works by philosophers, although I have had a stab at a little bit of Kant. Clarity of expression clearly did not count for much for philosophical fame in his day.)
* general science, including quite a few autobiographical accounts of the moon astronauts.
I guess if you've read the blog for some time, you would have worked out that these are key areas of interest.
Books I threw out in this round (if clean, they will be donated to Lifeline):
* a battered copy of Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: this deserves an award for the most over-praised book of the 20th Century. It is a book that simply made no impression on me at all, even to the extent that some years later I had to skim read it again to even be able to remember what it was about. It strikes me to this day as a slight work masquerading as a deep one. But happily, due to the wonders of the internet, I can read detailed criticism of it in support of my intuitive reaction 20 years ago. Yay.
* Shirley Hazzard's "The Great Fire": I dealt with this in detail in an earlier post, and it is never worth keeping a novel that you stronly dislike. That Bryan Appleyard thinks highly of her style is another of life's unfathomables.
* "Blindsight" by Peter Watts: yet another current science fiction writer who is essentially pessimistic and can't hold my interest.
On the upside, and further to my complaint about no current fiction writers interesting me, I have nearly finished my second Graham Greene, and there is a lot to like about his pared back style. I suspect that I may find his tortured Catholic themes a little repetitive though, but it's good to another author to work my way through.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention the category of "history", which contains mostly Paul Johnson books (not all of his work is immediately engaging, but he's a fine writer when at his best), assorted ones on World War 2, and a history of the bathroom.
I also forgot to note that I am giving away the first Lord of the Rings book. If you find even the movies tedious, not much point in keeping the novels, is there.
Here's the broad categories I use:
* science fiction (mostly old, since there is little written now that appeals to me. I had forgotten how complete my Robert Heinlein collection was; I have even kept his crappy later novels. But I did re-read one of his "juveniles" recently, and his style stands the test of time, I reckon.)
* other fiction (a lot of Evelyn Waugh, and a smattering of other authors, none of them very recent)
* religion (CS Lewis features prominently, but quite a few books on modern theology and religion generally, including by arch non-realist Don Cuppitt.)
* the paranormal and UFO's (are J Allen Hyneks' books still in print? They were the best of their type, but I also have Allen Hendry's great UFO Handbook.) To balance that out, I also have read Phillip Klass's skeptical books.
* philosophy and psychology (not much in the way of original works by philosophers, although I have had a stab at a little bit of Kant. Clarity of expression clearly did not count for much for philosophical fame in his day.)
* general science, including quite a few autobiographical accounts of the moon astronauts.
I guess if you've read the blog for some time, you would have worked out that these are key areas of interest.
Books I threw out in this round (if clean, they will be donated to Lifeline):
* a battered copy of Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: this deserves an award for the most over-praised book of the 20th Century. It is a book that simply made no impression on me at all, even to the extent that some years later I had to skim read it again to even be able to remember what it was about. It strikes me to this day as a slight work masquerading as a deep one. But happily, due to the wonders of the internet, I can read detailed criticism of it in support of my intuitive reaction 20 years ago. Yay.
* Shirley Hazzard's "The Great Fire": I dealt with this in detail in an earlier post, and it is never worth keeping a novel that you stronly dislike. That Bryan Appleyard thinks highly of her style is another of life's unfathomables.
* "Blindsight" by Peter Watts: yet another current science fiction writer who is essentially pessimistic and can't hold my interest.
On the upside, and further to my complaint about no current fiction writers interesting me, I have nearly finished my second Graham Greene, and there is a lot to like about his pared back style. I suspect that I may find his tortured Catholic themes a little repetitive though, but it's good to another author to work my way through.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention the category of "history", which contains mostly Paul Johnson books (not all of his work is immediately engaging, but he's a fine writer when at his best), assorted ones on World War 2, and a history of the bathroom.
I also forgot to note that I am giving away the first Lord of the Rings book. If you find even the movies tedious, not much point in keeping the novels, is there.
Reasons to doubt Plimer
Plimer unbloodied and certainly unbowed | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog
Andrew Bolt thought that last Friday's debate on Radio National didn't hurt Plimer at all. I must admit, I didn't think that Veron was very effective, but then again, as he only had the book for an hour before the exchange, you couldn't expect him to be well informed on its contents.
But the main problem was that (as I understand it) Veron is an expert on reefs, which gives him an interest in global warming, but doesn't really make him a direct expert on climate science.
One thing of note did come out, however, and that is that it appears (as I suspected) that Plimer leaves ocean acidification pretty much out of the debate. (Veron said he had trouble finding any references to it, but eventually did find a brief mention.)
Anyway, a much better refutation of Plimer's book, at least in one specific field, was on Radio National this morning. You can listen to it here.
Tim Lambert already has his list of obvious faults or omissions, and a more recent post indicating a sarcasm misfire that appears in the book.
While we are still waiting to see a more detailed review from some experienced climate scientists, I don't see any reason as to why skeptics should think that this book represents any form of breakthrough.
UPDATE: Andrew Bolt hasn't commented on this story from last week, as far as I know, but it's one that seems worthy of the attention of any AGW skeptic who wants to be taken seriously.
Andrew Bolt thought that last Friday's debate on Radio National didn't hurt Plimer at all. I must admit, I didn't think that Veron was very effective, but then again, as he only had the book for an hour before the exchange, you couldn't expect him to be well informed on its contents.
But the main problem was that (as I understand it) Veron is an expert on reefs, which gives him an interest in global warming, but doesn't really make him a direct expert on climate science.
One thing of note did come out, however, and that is that it appears (as I suspected) that Plimer leaves ocean acidification pretty much out of the debate. (Veron said he had trouble finding any references to it, but eventually did find a brief mention.)
Anyway, a much better refutation of Plimer's book, at least in one specific field, was on Radio National this morning. You can listen to it here.
Tim Lambert already has his list of obvious faults or omissions, and a more recent post indicating a sarcasm misfire that appears in the book.
While we are still waiting to see a more detailed review from some experienced climate scientists, I don't see any reason as to why skeptics should think that this book represents any form of breakthrough.
UPDATE: Andrew Bolt hasn't commented on this story from last week, as far as I know, but it's one that seems worthy of the attention of any AGW skeptic who wants to be taken seriously.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
How Britain is entertaining itself, etc
Go west! Gay storylines are drawing crowds to theatres in London's West End and fringe - The Independent
This lists 10 plays which are currently running in England to reasonable box office.
It seems to me that when it comes to gay themed musicals/comedy, they are usually much better reviewed (and more widely viewed) than the inherent quality deserves. It's like how Margaret and David (At the Movies) can't but help give an Australian movie an extra 1/2 to 1 star just for being Australian. I cite the movie versions of "Priscilla" and "La Cage" as examples.
The only gay drama that I can recall seeing much of was the TV version of Angels in America. The whole thing was terribly overwrought, I thought, but I seem to recall quite a few reviews pretty much agreeing with that.
Going back to gay comedy in Australia, I had the misfortune to see some of the Pam Ann Show on the Comedy Channel last week. This is very odd: a woman comedian who dresses up like a drag queen and seemingly aims for an audience mostly of gay male flight attendants. She is spectacularly unfunny, and if you look at the comments here, I am not alone in so thinking. (Best summary: "Feeble attempt to be a female (!) Bob Downe, the twist being no panache, poor scripting and no apparent talent.")
At least she goes to prove that no matter how much more sensitive people might feel gay men are, they don't as a class necessarily have any better refined taste in humour.
This lists 10 plays which are currently running in England to reasonable box office.
It seems to me that when it comes to gay themed musicals/comedy, they are usually much better reviewed (and more widely viewed) than the inherent quality deserves. It's like how Margaret and David (At the Movies) can't but help give an Australian movie an extra 1/2 to 1 star just for being Australian. I cite the movie versions of "Priscilla" and "La Cage" as examples.
The only gay drama that I can recall seeing much of was the TV version of Angels in America. The whole thing was terribly overwrought, I thought, but I seem to recall quite a few reviews pretty much agreeing with that.
Going back to gay comedy in Australia, I had the misfortune to see some of the Pam Ann Show on the Comedy Channel last week. This is very odd: a woman comedian who dresses up like a drag queen and seemingly aims for an audience mostly of gay male flight attendants. She is spectacularly unfunny, and if you look at the comments here, I am not alone in so thinking. (Best summary: "Feeble attempt to be a female (!) Bob Downe, the twist being no panache, poor scripting and no apparent talent.")
At least she goes to prove that no matter how much more sensitive people might feel gay men are, they don't as a class necessarily have any better refined taste in humour.
Determined
Drug-Sub Culture - The Latest Way to Get Cocaine Out of Colombia? Underwater. - NYTimes.com
Interesting article on (large) semi-submersibles being used to smuggle drugs.
Interesting article on (large) semi-submersibles being used to smuggle drugs.
Unexpected
BBC NEWS | Health | Statins link to healthy prostate
A statin is included in the mooted "polypill", which (I think) was designed only with heart disease and strokes in mind. If it also has a substantial protective effect on very common prostate problems, it would be a very attractive bonus.Statins are currently used to lower cholesterol and help prevent heart attacks and strokes.
However, there is growing evidence that the drugs also prevent cancer cells from dividing, and may even cause some cancer cells to die.
Worldwide, prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death.
The US Mayo Clinic followed 2,447 men aged 40 to 79 for nearly two decades.
They found men who took statins were three times less likely to develop prostate cancer than men who did not take the drugs.
They also found statin users were 57% less likely to develop an enlarge prostate.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
A late Anzac post
Here's my late father, probably in the North Atlantic, during (or shortly after) World War II. I'm not sure who the scowling figure in the background is. (A Chief Petty Officer, perhaps?)
He was never one to speak much about his war time experiences, and as far as I know, was lucky enough to avoid major action. But it's hard to imagine from the comfortable perspective of the last 40 years the social upheaval of a World War, and our thoughts and gratitude are, naturally, richly deserved.
He was never one to speak much about his war time experiences, and as far as I know, was lucky enough to avoid major action. But it's hard to imagine from the comfortable perspective of the last 40 years the social upheaval of a World War, and our thoughts and gratitude are, naturally, richly deserved.
Friday, April 24, 2009
A severe attack of the cutes
Gather the kiddies around, don't let them read the previous post, and just watch this:
Pope support
How can we change 'macho' attitudes to sex? | Society | guardian.co.uk
It's hard to read this article in The Guardian without thinking that it basically supports what the Pope and George Pell were attacked for saying a few weeks back.
On the issue of use of condoms within marriage: I would be concerned if the Pope's view was commonly taken by African women as meaning that they should still have unprotected sex with their husband even if they know he is HIV positive. But in fact, as one article I referred to in the previous post indicated, Catholic moralists would probably argue that it would be wrong for a HIV positive husband to insist on sex at all. (I don't know about most of my readers, but if I were in such a wife's situation, there's no way I would want to keep a sex life going with the husband - condom or not.)
For a situation where it is only suspected (through a belief that he is being unfaithful, say) that the husband is HIV positive, it seems to me doubtful in the extreme that unprotected sex within the marriage would be due to the Catholic teaching. After all, condoms don't exactly enhance the experience: a fact which condom promoters don't seem to ever want to acknowledge.
A wife's insistence on use of one when she only suspects the husband may be HIV positive is likely to be resented by him, and seen as taking away his perceived right to maximum enjoyment. And besides, she may want a child.
I strongly suspect that in the vast majority of cases, while a wife's decision to not insist (or her inability to insist) that her husband use a condom is consistent with Catholic teaching, but her position is far from primarily motivated by such teaching. On the husband's side, adherence to the Papal view on condoms would almost never be the reason that he does not use one with another partner or a prostitute.
(Update: is it possibly a partial reason a husband tells his wife that she should not make him use one? Maybe, in some cases, but again its doubtful from the Catholic point of view that he should be having sex at all if there are doubts about his sexual health. But again, isn't it far more likely that in most cases it is husband's selfishness that is the main reason he doesn't want to use one?)
Another way of looking at it is to say this: if the Catholic Church changed its teaching on condoms in Africa tomorrow, would it make a substantial difference to the HIV transmission rate? I think it's extremely doubtful that it would.
At heart, the problems are much more likely to cultural ones as the article suggests.
Update 2: having said all of that, I would be more than happy for the Catholic Church to revise its view on contraception and the idea that all sex has to be capable of procreation. What I am reacting against is the oft-repeated claim that Catholicism that is killing millions by virtue of its current teaching.
It's hard to read this article in The Guardian without thinking that it basically supports what the Pope and George Pell were attacked for saying a few weeks back.
On the issue of use of condoms within marriage: I would be concerned if the Pope's view was commonly taken by African women as meaning that they should still have unprotected sex with their husband even if they know he is HIV positive. But in fact, as one article I referred to in the previous post indicated, Catholic moralists would probably argue that it would be wrong for a HIV positive husband to insist on sex at all. (I don't know about most of my readers, but if I were in such a wife's situation, there's no way I would want to keep a sex life going with the husband - condom or not.)
For a situation where it is only suspected (through a belief that he is being unfaithful, say) that the husband is HIV positive, it seems to me doubtful in the extreme that unprotected sex within the marriage would be due to the Catholic teaching. After all, condoms don't exactly enhance the experience: a fact which condom promoters don't seem to ever want to acknowledge.
A wife's insistence on use of one when she only suspects the husband may be HIV positive is likely to be resented by him, and seen as taking away his perceived right to maximum enjoyment. And besides, she may want a child.
I strongly suspect that in the vast majority of cases, while a wife's decision to not insist (or her inability to insist) that her husband use a condom is consistent with Catholic teaching, but her position is far from primarily motivated by such teaching. On the husband's side, adherence to the Papal view on condoms would almost never be the reason that he does not use one with another partner or a prostitute.
(Update: is it possibly a partial reason a husband tells his wife that she should not make him use one? Maybe, in some cases, but again its doubtful from the Catholic point of view that he should be having sex at all if there are doubts about his sexual health. But again, isn't it far more likely that in most cases it is husband's selfishness that is the main reason he doesn't want to use one?)
Another way of looking at it is to say this: if the Catholic Church changed its teaching on condoms in Africa tomorrow, would it make a substantial difference to the HIV transmission rate? I think it's extremely doubtful that it would.
At heart, the problems are much more likely to cultural ones as the article suggests.
Update 2: having said all of that, I would be more than happy for the Catholic Church to revise its view on contraception and the idea that all sex has to be capable of procreation. What I am reacting against is the oft-repeated claim that Catholicism that is killing millions by virtue of its current teaching.
Spin your way out of this one, Kevin
Rudd's policies encourage would-be asylum seeker - ABC News
One man said he plans to attempt the boat journey even though his refugee status is already confirmed, because he has heard he is more likely to be accepted by Kevin Rudd's Government than its predecessor...Heh heh heh.
"Kevin Rudd - he's changed everything about refugee. If I go to Australia now, different, different," a second asylum seeker told the ABC.
"Maybe accepted but when John Howard, president, Australia, he said come back to Indonesia."
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Folk crisis averted
Online dating service for Austrias folk musicians | Austria News
Austrias folk musicians have problems to find the right partner. To guarantee enough of offspring from relationships between folk musicians, the governing body of that certain musical direction opened an online dating service for such kind of people.I think I have found a new favourite nation to regularly ridicule.
Dr Mickey?
How nosy mice sniff out sickness - health - 22 April 2009 - New Scientist
I didn't know that mice and rats had been shown to have some disease sniffing ability, like dogs have with cancer.
(There was a documentary on SBS recently about trials in England with cancer sniffing dogs. I was only able to half watch it, but the point of the story seemed to be that there was much professional scepticism about how useful this ability could be in real life, because dogs can have good days and bad days in smelling trials. My experience at the airport with a sniffer beagle that got very excited over a bottle of gin would appear to confirm that.)
Anyway, I hope one day to find a cage of rat assistants in my GP's surgery.
I didn't know that mice and rats had been shown to have some disease sniffing ability, like dogs have with cancer.
(There was a documentary on SBS recently about trials in England with cancer sniffing dogs. I was only able to half watch it, but the point of the story seemed to be that there was much professional scepticism about how useful this ability could be in real life, because dogs can have good days and bad days in smelling trials. My experience at the airport with a sniffer beagle that got very excited over a bottle of gin would appear to confirm that.)
Anyway, I hope one day to find a cage of rat assistants in my GP's surgery.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Cities not to work in
Is Jakarta a bad place to work? Say it ain’t so | The Jakarta Post
Businessweek has ranked the world's worst cities for expats to work in:
Businessweek has ranked the world's worst cities for expats to work in:
The report ranked Jakarta second, just below Lagos in Nigeria and above Riyadh in Saudi Arabia, saying the threat of violence from extremists, in particular, was a serious drawback to living in Jakarta.But the Jakarta Post notes this quasi-positive spin:
The report said despite problems common to many developing cities such as the risk of disease, poor sanitation and excessive pollution, “Indonesia can be an enticing location”.Many people in comments are disputing that it should be at such a high ranking. I like this one though:
This is a bum rap. I have worked as a frequent visitor in Jakarta and I have found it to be a pleasant city in many respects. Of course, the traffic can be nightmarish and the air pollution can injure one's respiratory tract.Interestingly, more than one commenter cites Malayasia as being the most racist country in the region.
If you don't have to travel far each day, speak Bahasa and have a modicum of patience, one can thrive there.
More on that baby
Gulfnews: Mother of 'illegal' infant arrested
It's not clear from the rest of the story as to whether there was anything improper at all in the documents she produced.
It's a great way for a nation to attract foreign workers.
A mother whose infant daughter was declared an illegal resident in Sharjah was arrested on Monday by the Sharjah Naturalisation and Residency Department (SNRD) on a charge of submitting forged documents. She was released hours later on condition she would return to the department on Tuesday with a guarantor's passport.Her infant daughter Nayana, 18 months, had to spend the day at baby care awaiting the release of her mother who was still in SNRD custody.
The babysitter told Gulf News that she didn't know what to do with the baby who cried all the time.
I like the personal detail at the end.
It's not clear from the rest of the story as to whether there was anything improper at all in the documents she produced.
It's a great way for a nation to attract foreign workers.
A long term reason for optimism?
Findings - Use Energy, Get Rich and Save the Planet - NYTimes.com
John Tierney will cop a lot of flack for running these predictions:
But the problem is, will the attainment of average global wealth of sufficient size to "green" the planet take place fast enough to prevent a disastrous accumulation of CO2?
It has occurred to me before that it might just be possible that, regardless of (probably unsuccessful) attempts at effective CO2 limiting treaties, foreseeable (or even unforeseen) changes to energy technology might just mean that CO2 production is rapidly contained over the next 50 years anyway.
Of course, if James Hanson is right, that's far too late. But, if God is really smiling upon the planet, a milder version of the Maunder minimum might buy the nations enough time to prepare for a return to higher than normal temperatures. Of course, that's assuming that people could be persuaded during a mini ice age that global warming was still a threat - which is probably a big ask!
Also, a really severe mini-ice age is not likely to help, I guess, as it would be reason to not cut back on coal fired power generation in those countries undergoing bad winters.
Anyway, there's always ocean acidification to worry about regardless of temperatures.
John Tierney will cop a lot of flack for running these predictions:
I don't doubt the point about the rich being greener than the poor. (It's also the assured way of containing population growth.)1. There will be no green revolution in energy or anything else. No leader or law or treaty will radically change the energy sources for people and industries in the United States or other countries. No recession or depression will make a lasting change in consumers’ passions to use energy, make money and buy new technology — and that, believe it or not, is good news, because...
2. The richer everyone gets, the greener the planet will be in the long run.
But the problem is, will the attainment of average global wealth of sufficient size to "green" the planet take place fast enough to prevent a disastrous accumulation of CO2?
It has occurred to me before that it might just be possible that, regardless of (probably unsuccessful) attempts at effective CO2 limiting treaties, foreseeable (or even unforeseen) changes to energy technology might just mean that CO2 production is rapidly contained over the next 50 years anyway.
Of course, if James Hanson is right, that's far too late. But, if God is really smiling upon the planet, a milder version of the Maunder minimum might buy the nations enough time to prepare for a return to higher than normal temperatures. Of course, that's assuming that people could be persuaded during a mini ice age that global warming was still a threat - which is probably a big ask!
Also, a really severe mini-ice age is not likely to help, I guess, as it would be reason to not cut back on coal fired power generation in those countries undergoing bad winters.
Anyway, there's always ocean acidification to worry about regardless of temperatures.
The appeal of fighting witches
Two books about witches. - By Johann Hari - Slate Magazine
Interesting article here about why belief in witchcraft is still common in significant parts of the world.
Interesting article here about why belief in witchcraft is still common in significant parts of the world.
The problem with India
India: the next climate obstacle? - Short Sharp Science - New Scientist
A New Scientist blog opines:
A New Scientist blog opines:
I would look to India for the next wall of resistance from developing nations. At negotiations, it is a forceful opponent to limiting emissions in developing nations. (Understandably so: the average Indian emits 1.2 metric tons of carbon each year, compared to 20.4 for the average US citizen.)
Indian negotiators have been known to flatly refuse to even discuss the matter of limiting emissions in developing nations during some negotiations because it was not explicitly on the agenda.
What Mahmoud left out
Ahmadinejad receives 'warm welcome' home after UN summit speech | World news | guardian.co.uk
Ahmadinejad omitted some remarks from the prepared text issued by Iranian diplomats in Geneva which described the Holocaust as "ambiguous and dubious".The eventual response from Israel might be far from that description.
On trial for writing an opinion?
Obama remarks on torture memos leave open possibility of prosecution - Los Angeles Times
Like this makes sense:
Of course, one of the common arguments against torture is that it does not produce reliable information in any event. But is that necessarily true? The CIA and intelligence services of all countries have a lot of experience in the field: do they like people to know how successful it can be?
There is probably a lot of information out there on the issue, but I don't have time to go looking for it now.
One other point I find curious about this whole matter is that, if the one of the interrogation "benefits" of waterboarding is that the victim thinks they are about to die, surely that aspect of it decreases over time if you've been subjected to it a dozen times and you still haven't died? Or does the psychological impact of it still increase over time, just out of fear of undergoing yet another round of an extremely unpleasant procedure?
Going back to Obama's flying the kite on Justice Department prosecutions, Powerline has this to say (and of course I agree):
I also tend to agree with Tigerhawk's take on this: if you have caught a terrorist who is prepared to kill thousands of civilians, it is surely helpful for him to at least believe that he is about to be tortured. Obama has effectively removed that fear, and that is not a good thing for the future security of his nation.
UPDATE 2: The New York Times reports that Obama's own intelligence director, Admiral Blair, supports the Dick Cheney position that important information was disclosed from waterboarding (or other techniques authorised by the Bush administration). I think we can assume Cheney was telling the truth.
Like this makes sense:
Although President Obama opposes the prosecution of CIA operatives who carried out the most controversial interrogations of suspected terrorists during the Bush administration, Obama suggested today that he had not ruled out action against Justice Department officials who authorized the tactics....Update: further interesting details on this in The Guardian version of the story:
Obama said that "with respect to those who formulated those legal decisions, I would say that that is going to be more of a decision for the attorney general within the parameters of various laws, and I don't want to prejudge that. I think that there are a host of very complicated issues involved there."
The White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, said only three days ago that the administration did not favour prosecutions of those who had devised the policy, and Gibbs echoed that on Monday.Cheney has a point. Surely most people are surprised by the number of times some detainees were waterboarded. Unless you believe that individual CIA operatives just started doing it for fun (a wildly improbably assumption, given the amount of paperwork that appears to surround these cases), they clearly must have been under the impression that something was to be gained (or was being gained) in the process.
Obama's about-turn may reflect the sense of outrage, at least among US liberals, over further details of CIA interrogations that have emerged during the last few days, including the use of waterboarding against one detainee 183 times. Or it could be purely political, a retaliation for sniping against him by Cheney.
In an interview with Fox News on Monday night, Cheney said he was disturbed by the release of the previously classified memos. He called for the declassification of other memos that he said would illustrate the value of intelligence gained from the interrogations.
"I know specifically of reports that I read, that I saw, that lay out what we learned through the interrogation process and what the consequences were for the country," he said.
Of course, one of the common arguments against torture is that it does not produce reliable information in any event. But is that necessarily true? The CIA and intelligence services of all countries have a lot of experience in the field: do they like people to know how successful it can be?
There is probably a lot of information out there on the issue, but I don't have time to go looking for it now.
One other point I find curious about this whole matter is that, if the one of the interrogation "benefits" of waterboarding is that the victim thinks they are about to die, surely that aspect of it decreases over time if you've been subjected to it a dozen times and you still haven't died? Or does the psychological impact of it still increase over time, just out of fear of undergoing yet another round of an extremely unpleasant procedure?
Going back to Obama's flying the kite on Justice Department prosecutions, Powerline has this to say (and of course I agree):
The idea of prosecuting a lawyer because a wrote a legal analysis with which the current Attorney General disagrees is so outrageous that I can't believe it would be seriously considered.UPDATE: some commentary on the issue of whether torture works.
I also tend to agree with Tigerhawk's take on this: if you have caught a terrorist who is prepared to kill thousands of civilians, it is surely helpful for him to at least believe that he is about to be tortured. Obama has effectively removed that fear, and that is not a good thing for the future security of his nation.
UPDATE 2: The New York Times reports that Obama's own intelligence director, Admiral Blair, supports the Dick Cheney position that important information was disclosed from waterboarding (or other techniques authorised by the Bush administration). I think we can assume Cheney was telling the truth.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Cats kill cute sea creatures
New research reveals extraordinary habits of rare Australian Snubfin dolphin
According to this article, research on the funny looking snub nosed dolphin (that lives off Queensland) shows that they can be killed by toxoplasma containing cat poop:
Cat owners have a lot to answer for.
According to this article, research on the funny looking snub nosed dolphin (that lives off Queensland) shows that they can be killed by toxoplasma containing cat poop:
The concern for the snubfin dolphin follows the death of three Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins recovered around Townsville in the period 2000-2001 that were infected by Toxoplasma gondii - a parasite usually found in cat faeces that appears to have come from contaminated run-off.In California, they have long believed that cat poo is killing sea otters.
Cat owners have a lot to answer for.
Oceans and Plimer
Most Australian readers would probably know already of the global warming skeptics excitement about a new hefty book by geologist Ian Plimer that (apparently) sets out with lots of footnotes his opinion as to why the great majority of climate scientists are wrong.
While we are waiting for some climate scientist types to review it in detail, I am curious as to whether he makes any attempt at addressing ocean acidification. As remarked here many times, this is an issue skeptics just like to wave away with a few dismissive snorts, and that's about the extent of their analysis. (Yes, I am aware of Plimer's previous short contributions to the issue, such as this one noted last year at Marohasy's blog. Anyone who has bothered to read about the issue can readily spot that this was a disingenuous attempt at dismissing it, and does not address the reasons why it is believed to be a serious problem regardless of the oceans surviving past periods of high atmospheric CO2.)
In fact, I haven't posted anything new about ocean acidification for a few weeks, but there have been quite a few papers of note, such as:
* some new calculations indicate that ocean "dead zones" will increase:
* A paper notes the wildly conflicting results of different lab tests on whether a certain type of phytoplankton will get heavier or lighter with more ocean acidification. However, even if they do in nature get heavier, they will not make a significant reduction in CO2 levels in the atmosphere:
* more research indicating pteropods (which feed a lot of fish) don't do well with increased acidfication. The researchers note:
While we are waiting for some climate scientist types to review it in detail, I am curious as to whether he makes any attempt at addressing ocean acidification. As remarked here many times, this is an issue skeptics just like to wave away with a few dismissive snorts, and that's about the extent of their analysis. (Yes, I am aware of Plimer's previous short contributions to the issue, such as this one noted last year at Marohasy's blog. Anyone who has bothered to read about the issue can readily spot that this was a disingenuous attempt at dismissing it, and does not address the reasons why it is believed to be a serious problem regardless of the oceans surviving past periods of high atmospheric CO2.)
In fact, I haven't posted anything new about ocean acidification for a few weeks, but there have been quite a few papers of note, such as:
* some new calculations indicate that ocean "dead zones" will increase:
increases in carbon dioxide can make marine animals more susceptible to low concentrations of oxygen, and thus exacerbate the effects of low-oxygen "dead zones" in the ocean.* (if I am reading this right) some lab tests indicate that phytoplankton in nutrient poor ocean areas (such as the Southern Oceans, which will be affected first by lower .pH) don't do well with increased CO2.
Brewer and Peltzer's calculations also show that the partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) in low-oxygen zones will rise much higher than previously thought. This could have significant consequences for marine life in these zones.
* A paper notes the wildly conflicting results of different lab tests on whether a certain type of phytoplankton will get heavier or lighter with more ocean acidification. However, even if they do in nature get heavier, they will not make a significant reduction in CO2 levels in the atmosphere:
...it should be recognized that the direct impact of calcification changes on atmospheric CO2 through the remainder of this century is relatively small compared to anticipated annual emissions as well as to other carbon cycle feedbacks.(Hence, if AGW is true, you can't expect the carbon incorporating phytoplankton to save you.)
* more research indicating pteropods (which feed a lot of fish) don't do well with increased acidfication. The researchers note:
A decline of their populations would likely cause dramatic changes to the structure, function and services of polar ecosystems.Not exactly cheery news.
Quantum fun
Avoid a future cataclysm: Forget the past - New Scientist
A quite bizarre but entertaining idea suggested by a physicist who has been thinking about "many worlds". The idea is hard to summarise here, and the article is short, but the ultimate point is this:
A quite bizarre but entertaining idea suggested by a physicist who has been thinking about "many worlds". The idea is hard to summarise here, and the article is short, but the ultimate point is this:
"If we could find a way to reset our knowledge of an impending disaster, we too could avoid it."Would large amounts of alcohol do the trick? (Maybe it explains the remarkable ability of some drunks to take a tumble and get back up again.)
4WD heresy
Bligh backs drop in Fraser Island speed limit - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
On the weekend, there was yet another four wheel drive accident on the beach at Fraser Island. This has prompted the government to finally say that letting people drive on a beach at 100 km might just be a little too dangerous. Well, duh, as they say.
But: why the hell do we let the great sandy islands of South East Queensland have their beach serenity spoilt by 4WD's at all? I don't particularly care if inland sand roads are used to access beach-side camp sites, but to my mind Moreton Island and Fraser Island beaches have a large amount of their wilderness value spoilt by the never-ending flow of 4WD up and down their beaches. If you are camping with young children, there is always the worry that it is not particularly safe for them to be going between campsite and the water's edge, because they are literally wandering on a "road".
To my mind, this has been an incremental problem. In the early 1970's, when I first went to Moreton Island, not that many people had 4WD's, and it really did feel a pretty isolated spot. Now that every man and his dog has been able to buy one (mainly for the wife's school run and supermarket shopping, mind you) they spoil quite a lot of the pleasure of being there.
No one says this, of course, and tourism operators on Fraser would be up in arms at the suggestion. But if I ruled the country, there would be a ban on beach driving for nearly everyone; and for non rural areas, 4WDs would be taxed within an inch of their saleability anyway.
On the weekend, there was yet another four wheel drive accident on the beach at Fraser Island. This has prompted the government to finally say that letting people drive on a beach at 100 km might just be a little too dangerous. Well, duh, as they say.
But: why the hell do we let the great sandy islands of South East Queensland have their beach serenity spoilt by 4WD's at all? I don't particularly care if inland sand roads are used to access beach-side camp sites, but to my mind Moreton Island and Fraser Island beaches have a large amount of their wilderness value spoilt by the never-ending flow of 4WD up and down their beaches. If you are camping with young children, there is always the worry that it is not particularly safe for them to be going between campsite and the water's edge, because they are literally wandering on a "road".
To my mind, this has been an incremental problem. In the early 1970's, when I first went to Moreton Island, not that many people had 4WD's, and it really did feel a pretty isolated spot. Now that every man and his dog has been able to buy one (mainly for the wife's school run and supermarket shopping, mind you) they spoil quite a lot of the pleasure of being there.
No one says this, of course, and tourism operators on Fraser would be up in arms at the suggestion. But if I ruled the country, there would be a ban on beach driving for nearly everyone; and for non rural areas, 4WDs would be taxed within an inch of their saleability anyway.
System failure
Mentally ill man raped, murdered daughter after warnings ignored | The Courier-Mail
A spectacularly tragic failure of the system to do any effective in the light of clear danger is detailed today:
A spectacularly tragic failure of the system to do any effective in the light of clear danger is detailed today:
THE state's largest hospital was warned, so were police and a doctor, but no one stopped a mentally ill man from taking a family holiday which ended with him raping and killing his 10-year-old daughter.Um, just how many patients who are supposed to be taking anti-psychotics are allowed by anyone to supervise their children alone? I would have thought that this fact alone would have been reason for action.
The man headed off on the fateful Bribie Island holiday with his four children after he was allowed to postpone a check-up with health authorities....
The Courier-Mail revealed in the days after the killing that the man had been released from the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital's mental health unit, where he had been under an involuntary treatment order, on December 21, 2007.
He had been admitted on December 8 after a manic episode in a shopping centre.
The man was allowed to postponea check-up with mental health workers scheduled for December 31. Late that night he ritualistically killed his daughter but spared her three younger siblings...
On December 30, the man's parents were so concerned about their son's behaviour, including a threat that "someone close to me is going to die tonight", that they contacted his GP...
On December 31, the RBWH was contacted by a former girlfriend of the man after he had gone to her home. The documents did not say whether the hospital took any action.
The man - who was found by the Mental Health Court to have been of unsound mind at the time of the murder - did not abide by the terms of his discharge. The judgment revealed he had stopped taking the antipsychotic drug, Risperidone, and resumed smoking large quantities of cannabis.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Peter Kennedy has left the building
With a bit of TLC, priest's exile begins | The Australian
While I was down the coast, Peter Kennedy and his followers took the short walk down the road from Saint Mary's church to their new (temporary?) HQ at the Trades and Labor Council. Yes, it's like organised labor having it's very own church now. How cute.
Although Kennedy was looking all chipper on the TV news, I don't know that this reported comment should really give his congregation much encouragement:
While I was down the coast, Peter Kennedy and his followers took the short walk down the road from Saint Mary's church to their new (temporary?) HQ at the Trades and Labor Council. Yes, it's like organised labor having it's very own church now. How cute.
Although Kennedy was looking all chipper on the TV news, I don't know that this reported comment should really give his congregation much encouragement:
"Our story, as it unfolds, will not change the church, nor will it change the world," Father Kennedy said. "But it is a political act which may give hope to those who feel excluded by the rules and regulations, the doctrines and dogmas, of the institutional church."For a quite sarcastic take on events, have a read of this post at Coo-ee's Priory, (and this one) which note that Peter Kennedy may be over-estimating media interest in his private church now that the expected physical confrontation is (presumably) not going to happen:
"We are liberated now to speak out about the church. The media will come to us for our opinion from now on."Yeah, we'll see how long that lasts.
Weekend away
We went down to the Gold Coast on the weekend, where I took this typical photo:
The weather was pretty good, and autumn (or spring) are the best times to be on the beach in South East Queensland: you don't have quite the same worry about frying your skin within 10 minutes, and once your feet get used to it, the water is warm.
It seems that the Gold Coast is suffering from the GFC to some degree: there were a few noticeable closed restaurants and such around. Price-wise, it's also probably a good time to be looking at buying a holiday unit there, as I suspect that is the type of real estate that investors are currently having to sell in a hurry. (Yes, have a look at this search at realestate.com to see what you can buy at Broadbeach for under $300,000. Someone send me $250,000 in Paypal and I'll let you stay in my apartment for 4 weeks a year in perpetuity!)
The weather was pretty good, and autumn (or spring) are the best times to be on the beach in South East Queensland: you don't have quite the same worry about frying your skin within 10 minutes, and once your feet get used to it, the water is warm.
It seems that the Gold Coast is suffering from the GFC to some degree: there were a few noticeable closed restaurants and such around. Price-wise, it's also probably a good time to be looking at buying a holiday unit there, as I suspect that is the type of real estate that investors are currently having to sell in a hurry. (Yes, have a look at this search at realestate.com to see what you can buy at Broadbeach for under $300,000. Someone send me $250,000 in Paypal and I'll let you stay in my apartment for 4 weeks a year in perpetuity!)
Hold this space
Missing me? No, I thought not. In any case, there's stuff to post about, but no time 'til tonight.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Cheap real estate soon in Japan?
Japan birthrate fall world's No. 1 | The Japan Times Online
The productive population, or those aged 15 to 64, is expected to decline from 81.64 million in 2009 to 45.95 million in 2055.
Friday, April 17, 2009
A science fiction image
This video of a pair of lungs being kept "breathing" while awaiting transplant reminded me of one of Larry Niven's novels, "A Gift from Earth". More details of the point of the exercise are at Next Big Future.
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