Fish oil, part 2

Fish oil 'reduces youth psychosis'

After recently posting about the benefits of fish oil for adults who want to slow aging, this news of another (somewhat unexpected) apparent benefit of it for the young is worth noting:

In the study, published in the Archives of General Psychiatry journal, 41 high-risk patients were given four fish oil capsules a day for three months. Only two of them developed a psychotic disorder, compared with 11 of another 40 who took a placebo...

High-powered anti-psychotic drugs can come with metabolic changes, sexual dysfunction and weight gain which are often not acceptable for young people, leading to high drop-out rates.

Very few people dropped out of the fish oil treatment regime, and a 12-month follow up showed the effect seemed to protect the brain even after the patient stopped taking the pills.

What isn't it good for?

Clarification on that water vapor story

The role of stratospheric water vapor in global warming

Yet again, John Cook does a clear and enlightening post on that "less water vapour in the stratosphere" story I posted about below. Bottom line:

There seem to be two major misconceptions arising from this paper. The first is that this paper demonstrates that water vapor is the major driver of global temperatures. In fact, what this paper shows is the effect from stratospheric water vapor contributes a fraction of the temperature change imposed from man-made greenhouse gases. While the stratospheric water vapor is not insignificant, it's hardly the dominant driver of climate being portrayed by some blogs.

The other misinterpretation is that this paper proves negative feedback that cancels out global warming. As we've just seen, the magnitude of the effect is small compared to the overall global warming trend.

iWant - I don't

Charlie Brooker | iPad therefore iWant? Probably. Why? iDunno

Charlie Brooker has some good cynical lines about the iPad. This is probably the best bit:

Apple excels at taking existing concepts – computers, MP3 players, conceit – and carefully streamlining them into glistening ergonomic chunks of concentrated aspiration. It took the laptop and the coffee table book and created the MacBook. Now it's taken the MacBook and the iPhone and distilled them into a single device that answers a rhetorical question you weren't really asking.

On a more serious note, it seems to me that Apple's failure to get on with Adobe (so that Flash content will not show on the iPad) is a very big reason not to buy an iPad:

In a blog post last week, Adobe group manager Adrian Ludwig railed against iPad and restrictions on Apple devices "that limit both content publishers and consumers".

"Without Flash support, iPad users will not be able to access the full range of web content, including over 70% of games and 75% of video on the web," Ludwig wrote.

This limitation does not apply to the games and other content available through Apple's App Store, as these apps are coded specifically to suit Apple's devices.

On the unofficial TheFlashBlog.com, Adobe platform evangelist Lee Brimelow provided several screen shots showing examples of web content that would be unavailable on the iPad, such as parts of CNN.com, Farmville.com, video streaming websites such as Hulu.com, porn sites, graphics on Google Finance, web games and much of Disney.com.

The coming ghost towns of Europe

The population crash | Fred Pearce | World news | The Guardian

Here's a pretty compelling extract from a book looking at Europe's dwindling birth-rate and aging population. (The situation with emptying towns is already very dire in East Germany, apparently.)

Red faces

Did rice wine lead to flushed faces in Asia? - New Scientist

As it happens, today I witnessed this first hand. I convinced an Asian friend, who assured me he did not often drink alcohol because of the severe face flushing it causes him, to at least try a Cascade Premium Lite. (Alcohol content: 2.6%.)

It was still enough to cause a very noticeable flush. It did seem to fade by the end of the schooner, though, but he wouldn't take up my suggestion that he now try a full strength beer to see if he had broken some sort of barrier.

The science behind it is explained in the New Scientist article as follows:

A mutation that causes some Asians to flush red when they down a beer may have evolved to help their ancestors cope with rice wine. A genetic study suggests that the mutation evolved around 10,000 years ago, about the same time as Asians were starting to farm rice and figuring out how to ferment it into boozy drinks....

The mutation causes alcohol to be metabolised at 100 times the speed that it otherwise would be. As the enzyme removes alcohol so quickly from the blood stream, it protects people from the harmful effects of alcohol, and Su believes it confers an evolutionary advantage: a study in the Han Chinese suggests that those carrying the mutation have the lowest risk of alcoholism (American Journal of Human Genetics, vol 65 p 795).

The mutation also causes a by-product of the alcohol's metabolisation to accumulate in the body, which makes those who have the mutation flush red when they drink.

So, this mutation has the embarrassing effect of making you look like a quick drunk, which (like my lunch mate) causes some sufferers enough embarrassment to not want to drink at all, but actually it sounds like they should be capable of drinking with relative impunity. How ironic.

School tables

ABC The Drum Unleashed - Julia Gillard: a political dill

So, it turns out that Bob Ellis can't stand Julia Gillard and criticises everything she has ever done. I'd guess that there is some personal history there that Ellis is not revealing.

But on the point of ranking schools, which Ellis disagrees with, someone in comments makes the point that a friend (a former teacher in fact) made to me on the weekend. That is, it's the private schools that might have a lot to lose in this. The Myschools site makes it easy to check how much value you might be getting for sending your kid to an expensive school, and it may not be as good a deal as expected.

Typical Democrats

Apart from the original race to the Moon being a Democrat initiative, it seems that since the 1970's, Democrat Presidents have only ever been about cut backs and bad news for the American space program. This tradition is, as I pretty much expected, continuing under Obama with this annoucement that the manned space program is going to yet again be stuck in low earth orbit indefinitely.

They (Democrats) seemingly have no vision about the future at all. I mean, does anyone feel that Obama actually has any daring in his approach to the energy future of the US or the world?

Bah.

Japanese economic woes

BBC News - Japan deflation hits a record pace to threaten recovery

On the up side, I guess this makes it more attractive for tourists.

(Jetstar continues to offer ridiculously cheap air fares to there from time to time. About $650 return from the Gold Coast.)

The silence of the planets

I didn't realise Frank Drake, who kicked off the idea of SETI, was still alive.

But he recently spoke at the Royal Society and explained that changes to broadcast technology is making the earth harder to hear from afar:

"The trouble is that we are making ourselves more and more difficult to be heard," said Dr Drake. "We are broadcasting in much more efficient ways today and are making our signals fainter and fainter."

In the past, TV and radio programmes were broadcast from huge ground stations that transmitted signals at thousands of watts. These could be picked up relatively easily across the depths of space, astronomers calculated.

Now, most TV and radio programmes are transmitted from satellites that typically use only 75 watts and have aerials pointing toward Earth, rather than into space.

"For good measure, in America we have switched from analogue to digital broadcasting and you are going to do the same in Britain very soon," Drake added. "When you do that, your transmissions will become four times fainter because digital uses less power."

"Very soon we will become undetectable," he said. In short, in space no one will hear us at all.

What is true for humans would probably also be true for aliens...

I have a vague recollection of Arthur C Clarke also saying that this would happen. Mind you, I am not entirely sure it is a good idea to make your presence known in the universe, so a bit of quiet from planet Earth might be a good thing.

It is complicated

Water vapour could be behind warming slowdown : Nature News

This article talks about a new suggestion that a drop in stratospheric water vapour might account for a (relative) levelling out of global temperatures in the last decade:

...a team led by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, Colorado, report that a mysterious 10% drop in water vapour in the stratosphere — the atmospheric layer that sits 10–50 kilometres above Earth's surface — since 2000 could have offset the expected warming due to greenhouse gases by roughly 25%. Just as intriguingly, their model suggests that an increase in stratospheric water vapour might have boosted earlier warming by about 30% in the 1980s and 1990s. The team's work is published online by Science today¹.

The effect on temperature is dominated by water vapour in the lower part of the stratosphere, which absorbs and radiates heat in much the same way as water molecules and other greenhouse gases do in the lower atmosphere. The drop in water vapour doesn't explain the entire decrease in the rate of warming, but it could contribute to it, says Susan Solomon, first author of the study

It all seems a very tentative idea though:

Other researchers see different factors at play in the recent temperature trends. A study published last year³ hones in on the solar cycle and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, an upwelling of warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific. Both have been in their negative phases for most of the decade so temperatures may rise as they move into their positive phases.

"I think it's exciting that this [transition] is happening, because we are going to learn a lot," says Judith Lean, a solar physicist at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington DC, who co-authored last year's study³ with David Rind, a climate modeller at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

The article seems to indicate that no one knows what water vapour in the stratosphere will do in the future.

Other researchers think current models account for the occasional decade long stall in increasing temperatures and it's not a good idea to worry too much about the issue anyway.

You can bet, however, that skeptics will seize on this paper, with their attitude that if something is not completely understood, you don't do anything about it. Which is, by most scientists reckoning, a good way to gamble on potential long term disaster.

Australian bees visit

It's been a while since a photo appeared here, so let's put one up.

The kids noticed these bees in the garden in December. They have unusual behaviour, clinging to a particular stick on a bush overnight, and disappearing again during the day:



It appears that they are Australian blue banded bees. They are solitary (in that they don't build hives), but like to sleep together in small groups. Apparently they are common around Brisbane, but I've not noticed them before. Nice.

All that took 60 seconds?

Well that was sort of humiliating.

I've been blogging for nearly 5 years now, but never got around to downloading a back up copy of it, just in case Google somehow forget who I was or lost all of this valuable(?) work.  (I'm not read enough to be hacked, I figure.)

Anyhow, doing an export of the blog to a hard drive from Blogger is now very easy, but it saves it in a .xml format which doesn't (I think) save photos and just leaves the bones of the blog to be recreated later if necessary.  (I think.)

So I decided I would also download a mirror copy of the site onto my hard drive, using the very handy WinHTTrack Website Copier.  (I haven't used it before, but it worked fine.)  That way it looks exactly the same on my hard drive as it does on the web.

I assumed that this program going back through Blogger and downloading every post and photo would take, I dunno, at least 10 minutes.   Five years of writing and effort should not be able to be downloaded too quickly.

Well, I swear it took less than 60 seconds to finish.  I'm feeling slightly depressed now.

A novel suggestion

The Moon may have formed in a nuclear explosion:

The hypothesis (credited to Charles Darwin’s son George in 1879) is that the Earth and Moon began as a mass of molten rock spinning rapidly enough that gravity was just barely greater than the centrifugal forces. Even a slight kick could dislodge part of the mass into orbit, where it would become the Moon. The hypothesis has been around for 130 years, but was rejected because no one could explain a source of the energy required to kick a moon-sized blob of molten rock into orbit.

Dutch scientists Rob de Meijer (University of the Western Cape) and Wim van Westrenen (Amsterdam’s VU University) think they know the answer. Their hypothesis is that the centrifugal forces would have concentrated heavy elements like thorium and uranium on the equatorial plane and at the Earth core-mantle boundary. If the concentrations of these radioactive elements were high enough, this could have led to a nuclear chain reaction that became supercritical, causing a nuclear explosion.

Would have been good to watch.

A reasonable fear of lightning

People who know me well know that I am, to say the least, a touch on the sensitive side when it comes to storms and the danger of lightning. A brother says I am completely unreasonable about this; I argue that it is completely justified, and based on my broader than average reading of the strange ways lightning has killed or injured people.

For example, I know that is not a good idea to be near open windows during lightning storms. Yet people complain when I immediately start shutting windows as soon as I judge the storm is close enough. (Sometimes I can justify it because of the rain, but often I am shutting them before it starts.) The fact is that lightning has been known to come inside houses via open windows. For example, in New South Wales today, lightning through open windows struck not once but twice:

The Ambulance Service of NSW said a 37-year-old man was hit by lightning while doing the washing up near a window at a YMCA camp in Yarramundi at about 7.30pm (AEDT) on Thursday.

Paramedics were treating the man, who was suffering neck and shoulder pain, and planned to take him to hospital.

Emergency services were also called to a house on Macquarie Road, in Springwood, in the NSW Blue Mountains, after it was struck by lightning at about 5pm.

"It's come through the window, it hit the curtains and ignited them," a firefighter at the scene told media at the scene.

Two people, including a man suffering smoke inhalation, were taken to Blue Mountains Hospital.

Basically, I know from first hand experience, (there are two separate stories I can tell) that otherwise intelligent people are, as a rule, still pretty much completely ignorant of, or too silly to take reasonable precautions against, the danger of lightning, even when they are in situations where the danger is absolutely as high as it could possibly be. (Well, short of doing a Benjamin Franklin and flying a kite up into it.)

But as I say, those stories are for another day.

Money and influence

How Davos makes incredibly rich people seem smarter than they actually are. - Slate Magazine

Daniel Gross notes:

It struck me that the difference between banality and profundity is generally a few billion dollars: The real alchemy of finance is to endow those skilled at finance to wield authority in adjacent or even unrelated areas. That's the general theory of Davos, bankers sharing their theories about nonbanking subjects. Stick around and you'll hear a lot of conventional wisdom on globalization, climate change, poverty reduction, financial crisis, but it somehow sounds deeper and more weighty because it's delivered by an extraordinarily wealthy CEO, a private equity executive, or hedge fund manager rather than by a journalist.

Some observations about Monckton down under

I have seen bits of Monckton on Sunrise, heard him on Alan Jones, read about his having lunch with Miranda Devine, and heard a bit of him on Radio National breakfast this morning. There are several points I want to make:

1. He is being given far too easy a ride even by those journalists who do not trust him. On Sunrise, where there was a young scientist in opposition, he was allowed to get away with the broad statement that there are many (hundreds?) of peer reviewed papers showing that climate sensitivity is low. (That is, increasing CO2 will not lead to much of an increase in temperatures.) He has continually repeated his discredited maths in his letter to Kevin Rudd. There was no real response to this alone the simple lines "the climate scientists who hold this view are in a very, very minority. There is no doubt at all that the overwhelming majority of climate scientists believe in levels of climate sensitivity which are of great concern to them and which should be acted upon now." How hard is it to say that?

People like John Quiggin argue that engaging with skeptics on science in a debate forum is often counterproductive, and I understand the point. But what is happening now is just as bad.

Sure, people who read widely on the topic know the answers to Monckton's claims already; but the average audience member who is neutral or disinterested in the topic are being done a disservice by what seems to be a non-response to Monckton's direct claims.

If scientists want the science out there, they have to get more aggressive in answering the likes of Monckton.

I haven't had time yet to watch the embedded video interview by Ben Cubby that heads the Miranda Devine article: I hope it's better, but we need more than journalists challenging him.

2. As for those who do already sympathise with him; well what do you expect. I would be interested to know, however, on what basis (according to Devine) Monckton is said to be a mathematician.

Yes I know, he came up with a puzzle that presumably shows he has an interest in mathematics. But why doesn't anyone point out that the last time he took this gamble on his expertise, he lost. (His puzzle was solved within a year, not his estimate of three.)

3. Why does anyone keep calling him "Lord", or even "Viscount" Monckton?. As David Koch noted, Monckton had invited him to call him Christopher, yet people keep insisting on referring to his completely irrelevant title. Did Jeffrey Archer keep getting this from Australian and American interviewers? Not to the same degree, as far as I can recall. I can understand why grovellers to his views like Alan Jones will use the title over and over, but those who don't believe his message, just drop it.


In short, this is no time to be taking a back step in the PR wars over AGW. Scientists need to step up to the plate in defending their work, clearly point out the errors in Monckton's claims, and the reasons he should not be believed.

UPDATE: I've now watched the Ben Cubby interview of Monckton, and it wasn't too bad. Cubby manages to get Monckton annoyed by pressing him on the meaning of "peer reviewed", and Monckton waffles on and on in his pathetically self serving way. It's like that old Keating crack about Bronwyn Bishop: he's a mile wide but an inch deep.

Oh yes, this makes me feel good about the modern world

World's Second Pregnant Man Ready to Give Birth - latimes.com

Have a look at the photo.

Something new for the home based mad scientist

The Radiation Boom - As Technology Surges, Radiation Safeguards Lag - Series - NYTimes.com

A somewhat worrying report about cases of mistakes when hospitals use new cancer treating radiation machines in the States.

According to the article, they are sold with little in the way of regulation:

In this largely unregulated marketplace, manufacturers compete by offering the latest in technology, with only a cursory review by the government, and hospitals buy the equipment to lure patients and treat them more quickly. Radiation-generating machines are so ubiquitous that used ones are even sold on eBay.

“Vendors are selling to anyone,” said Eric E. Klein, a medical physicist and professor of radiation oncology at Washington University in St. Louis. “New technologies were coming into the clinics without people thinking through from Step 1 to Step 112 to make sure everything is going to be done right.”

Surprising.

That's the second biggest book etc..

Largest book in the world goes on show for the first time

It would take quite a while to read on a Kindle.

Podding in the garden

OfficePOD. Changing the way people work. Welcome to the next generation of workplace

Hmm. Don't be put off by the fact that it looks like it would be hotter than hell sitting inside one of these in your garden in Brisbane if there was any part of it in the sun.

Instead, just think of the pleasure you could get from saying to your wife: "I'll be in my pod, dear."

Yes, I'll take one thanks. (Found by the always witty Red Ferret Journal.)

The pants police

Hundreds dressed down by sharia officers during raid on clothing | The Jakarta Post

I mentioned recently that the Sharia police in Aceh in Indonesia seemed to be quite unpopular (since the little matter of an alleged rape by 3 of them). Yet they are still keen on not taking a backwards step:

Hundreds of residents considered to be wearing unacceptable clothing according to sharia regulations, were temporarily detained during an operation at the busy Mesra Darussalam traffic crossing in Banda Aceh, Aceh Nanggroe Darussalam, on Tuesday afternoon.

The residents, including around 100 women wearing pants and tight shirts and a number of men wearing shorts, were pulled aside, lectured and then released by sharia (Wilayatul Hisbah) officers, who had been standing by in the area, which is a main thoroughfare for university students.

The women targeted by the officers were allegedly wearing un-Islamic clothing and several of them did not wear headscarves, now compulsory in Aceh.

The operation, aimed at upholding sharia law, was led by Banda Aceh Law and Order Agency and Wilayatul Hisbah chairman Iskandar, with support from the Military Police and members of the local Indonesian Muslim Student Action Union.

And here you thought the Australian university Student Unions were annoying.

Ocean acidification and iron: bad for phytoplankton

Acidifying Ocean May Stifle Phytoplankton - Science News

Some people argue that increased CO2 will result in more phytoplankton blooms, which will help sink more CO2 to the bottom of the sea.

One study that appeared a couple of weeks ago in Science suggests that this may not happen due to the lower water pH that the increased CO2 is definitely already causing:

Research by oceanographer Dalin Shi and his colleagues at Princeton University hints that rising CO₂, instead of providing extra nutrients for phytoplankton, may actually curb the growth of these organisms, which form the base of the ocean’s food chain. The team reports these findings online January 14 and in an upcoming Science.

In their tests, the researchers studied how acidification, a decline in ocean pH, affects the ability of phytoplankton to take up dissolved iron, another nutrient required for growth. The scientists measured growth rates of four species of the marine microorganisms — including two that Shi described as “the lab rats of phytoplankton” — in ocean water with pH values that ranged from 8.8 to 7.7. On average, the pH of ocean surface waters today is about 8.08, says Shi.

Across large swaths of the ocean, phytoplankton are already starved for iron, Shi says. And the team’s research suggests that acidification will make things worse: If ocean pH drops by about 0.3 units over the next century — the acidification expected if CO₂ emission trends continue — iron uptake by phytoplankton could drop by between 10 and 20 percent, the data suggest. Ironically, even though more-acidic waters are able to hold increased amounts of dissolved iron, a larger percentage of that nutrient would be chemically bound to organic matter dissolved in the water and therefore unavailable to nourish phytoplankton, Shi says.

Earth defence underfunded

Detecting and countering near-Earth objects that could threaten Earth underfunded, according to report

We need a nice, smallish asteroid hit somewhere relatively harmless and leave a gigantic smoldering hole in the ground to focus the minds of government into properly funding this useful activity.

Sensible one day, idiot the next

Wanted: Tony Blair for war crimes. Arrest him and claim your reward | George Monbiot

George Monbiot provides a spectacular example of how you never trust a pundit on absolutely everything.

He's been reasonably impressive on climate change, and came across on the Lateline "debate" last year with Ian Plimer as rational and calm.  Yet when it comes to the Iraq War, he's idiotic enough to do this:

So today I am launching a website – www.arrestblair.org – whose purpose is to raise money as a reward for people attempting a peaceful citizen's arrest of the former prime minister. I have put up the first £100, and I encourage you to match it. Anyone meeting the rules I've laid down will be entitled to one quarter of the total pot: the bounties will remain available until Blair faces a court of law. The higher the ­reward, the greater the number of ­people who are likely to try.

At this stage the arrests will be largely symbolic, though they are likely to have great political resonance. But I hope that as pressure builds up and the crime of aggression is adopted by the courts, these attempts will help to press ­governments to prosecute. There must be no hiding place for those who have committed crimes against peace. No ­civilised country can allow mass ­murderers to move on.

Increasing global temperatures must be affecting his judgement.

Garnaut on "where to now"?

Better an imperfect scheme than delay

In a very long speech, Ross Garnaut talks about the options available for an ETS or carbon tax.

If you skip the irrelevant cricket analogy, it's quite interesting.

He still supports an ETS, but it would seem he has warmed more towards a carbon tax.

The first Australians: bad environmentalists

Early humans wiped out Australia's giants : Nature News

Heh heh heh. According to Nature, the evidence that the first humans here killed off Australian mega fauna (either by huntingg, or by changing the environment by burning, or both) has been getting stronger over the last decade:

Richard Roberts, a geochronologist at the University of Wollongong, Australia, and biologist Barry Brook, of the University of Adelaide, Australia, say in a commentary⁴ in Science that "human impact was likely the decisive factor", possibly through hunting of young megafauna. Increased aridity during the last Ice Age might have reinforced this effect, but Australian megafauna were well adapted to dry conditions because they had survived repeated droughts in the past, they say.

Chris Johnson, an ecologist at James Cook University in Townsville, Australia, says the direct dates from Cuddie Springs mean the site now "falls in line with a mass of other evidence" for the rapid extinction of the Australian megafauna between 50,000 and 40,000 years ago.

I also note that Nature also uses this term:

Some have proposed that the ancestors of Australian Aborigines, who reached the continent between 60,000 and 45,000 years ago, rapidly hunted the animals to extinction.

Will modern day aborigines use this to distinguish themselves from those who did the killing 40,000 years ago? It would be interesting if they did, given that they like to claim a culture going back that far, when it suits them.

Ocean acidification continues

USF Study Shows First Direct Evidence of Ocean Acidification

Actually, that headline is misleading, in that studies off Hawaii and Iceland have already shown acidification at the rate predicted. The new point about this study is that it covered a wide area of ocean instead of looking at just one spot.

The abstract of the paper is not too long, and I may as well repeat it here:

Global ocean acidification is a prominent, inexorable change associated with rising levels of atmospheric CO₂. Here we present the first basin-wide direct observations of recently declining pH, along with estimates of anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic contributions to that signal. Along 152°W in the North Pacific Ocean (22–56°N), pH changes between 1991 and 2006 were essentially zero below about 800 m depth. However, in the upper 500 m, significant pH changes, as large as −0.06, were observed. Anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic contributions over the upper 800 m are estimated to be of similar magnitude. In the surface mixed layer (depths to ∼100 m), the extent of pH change is consistent with that expected under conditions of seawater/atmosphere equilibration, with an average rate of change of −0.0017/yr. Future mixed layer changes can be expected to closely mirror changes in atmospheric CO₂, with surface seawater pH continuing to fall as atmospheric CO₂ rises.

Yay for hand-drawn

Leap of faith: The Princess and the Frog - Features, Films - The Independent

Yesterday the family saw The Princess and the Frog, and it's great.

As the above article notes, it's clear that the animators, being given this opportunity to revive the art, really went out of their way to make an absolutely georgeous looking film. I can't remember any of the big hits of the Disney 1980's period being so impressive simply as art.

The story is just pitch perfect too. It updates old Disney themes in a way that is not too pandering to modern culture, and although it is again a female protagonist (it nearly always is in Disney musicals) it's not really as "girly" a film in its romantic themes as I recall, say, Beauty and the Beast or The Little Mermaid.

The songs are by Randy Newman, and some reviews complain they are, at best, only serviceable, but I found it something of a relief not to have the old style gush suddenly surfacing (again, think of some of the songs from the two movies I just mentioned.) They all seemed pleasant songs to me.

Go see it. (It's an excellent date movie even if you don't have kids.)

Widely ignored advice

Dealing with ear wax - Health & Wellbeing

I have always found it hard to credit doctors' advice (repeated in the story linked above) that using cotton buds to clean out ear wax is not a good idea. The rate at which people's ears make the stuff seems to vary widely, and I suppose if your ears don't get itchy and feeling sticky at the entrance within a few of days of the last cleaning, you may not have a problem.

But for me, it is pretty much unimaginable that I wouldn't get in there with a cotton bud at least every few days. In summer, they seem to need it more often. And surely that purpose is behind about 90% of cotton bud sales, so I am sure I am not on my own.

Maybe the doctors' advice is based on them all investing in companies that make wax softening products, as well as the "money for nothing" consultation fees for syringing out the ears of those patients who do take their advice.

There should be an enquiry into this scandal.

Serves them right

Mercury levels of whale-eating town's residents 10 times average

Japan Times has run stories about the high level of mercury in Japanese whale meat for years, but it's never been especially clear to me as to how much attention it has received in the Japanese press.  But this is surely important news that should get their attention:

Levels of mercury in hair samples of residents of Taiji, Wakayama Prefecture, which is known for customarily eating small whales caught by coastal whaling, are about 10 times the average in Japan, possibly due to consumption of whale meat with high concentration of mercury, one of researchers who conducted the survey said Thursday.... 
 
The survey showed the average total mercury levels in the men’s and women’s hair samples were 21.6 parts per million and 11.9 ppm, respectively, while the levels of average Japanese men and women are 2.55 ppm and 1.43 ppm, he said...

Endo expressed alarm that contamination levels among some of the residents appeared to be high enough to develop health problems according to oversea standards.
   
‘‘It’s necessary to conduct more detailed research on their health conditions and the current status of contamination,’’ he said. ‘‘We should also make efforts to curb consumption of whale meat which is highly contaminated with mercury.’‘

But women priests will keep it so relevant

Church of England attendance falls for fifth year in row | World news | guardian.co.uk

As reported above:

The average weekly attendance in 2008 fell to 1.145 million from 1.16 million in 2007, while the average Sunday attendance fell from 978,000 in 2007 to 960,000 in 2008.

This is despite attempts to be relevant such as:

...allowing children to be baptised at the same time as their parents' marriage.

It would be a fair bet that the parents who lived together, had kids and then decided to get the all-in-one special of marriage and baptism will next only next be a church for a funeral.

Blockage

Overweight? Then you’ll have to buy two seats - News & Advice, Travel - The Independent

Have a look at the photo that accompanies this article. It is claimed to be genuine, and it if is, it surely highlights the fact that the morbidly obese on aircraft is a safety issue if they are not able to take up two seats.

Interestingly, Australian airlines claim it is not necessary to have a policy on it:

A spokeswoman for Virgin Blue said most overweight people who did not fit into one seat were aware of the problem, and many bought two seats for their own comfort.

''There is no formal policy'', the spokeswoman said.

''However, if a guest does not fit into a seat on a full flight they will be moved to the next available flight, and we have no plans to follow the example of Air France-KLM,'' she said.

A spokeswoman for Qantas said the airline did everything it could to meet the needs of customers.

''Should a customer require extra space on a flight, we seat them next to an empty seat where possible,'' she said.

''However, the only way for a customer to guarantee extra space is to either purchase two economy seats or fly business or first class.

Those who think they don't have a problem fitting into a seat must cause some problems from time to time, though.

Uncertainties detailed

The real holes in climate science : Nature News

It would appear that "climategate" (and perhaps now the Himalaya glacier mistake in the IPCC report) has led to some prominent climate scientists sounding humbler. Gavin Schmidt at Real Climate has been sounding more modest lately, and he features prominently in the above article, which I hope Nature keeps available for some time.

It's a very good explanation of those areas of climate science which are still poorly understand and/or subject to very uncertain predictions. In short, they are:

1. regional climate predictions,
2. the effect on precipitation,
3. the role of aerosols, and
4. use of proxies for past climate reconstructions.

The short story is: the atmosphere is really, really complicated, and building accurate models of its behaviour on the scale needed for good regional predictions is very, very hard.

I think this probably goes against the modern intuition, at least of younger people who use computers all the time. I suspect that even the use of sophisticated games software, which deal with thousand of options and combinations and seem to create incredibly detailed "worlds" inside a mere household computer, gives the false impression that modelling a column of air (and extending it globally) could not be so hard.

So it is good now and again to be reminded that big uncertainties remain.

But: the big danger of articles like this is that, as we all know, AGW deniers will use absolutely any mistake (no matter how minor) or admission of lack of knowledge to claim that it is totally rubbish and unreliable.

The Nature article does have short "box" on enduring climate change myths, but it just deals with them briefly.

Of course, what deniers also miss is that there is (as far as I know) no particular reason to assume that the areas in which knowledge are still lacking are all matters which will eventually be resolved in a way relatively harmless for humanity. They could all be matters which end up worse than current predictions.

The other issue that people always forget is ocean acidification, about which I have not posted for a while, but there is plenty of new material out there. I remain strongly of the view that it alone is reason to stop CO2 as soon as possible, as it is extremely difficult to tell where the ecological changes that will bring will take us.

Super cool power

No more power lines? / The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com

Interesting article here on superconducting power cables, which sound to be more advanced that I would have guessed:

A tour of American Superconductor’s factory found the company creating flat metal tape out of “high-temperature superconducting” (HTS) oxide materials and costly silver, then slicing it into thin flat strips. The strips wrap around a pipe carrying liquid nitrogen, which cools the cable to minus 346 degrees Fahrenheit....

Cost, however, has long been a major issue. However, the price gap is closing, American Superconductor says. A 1,000-mile length of superconducting cable capable of carrying 5,000 megawatts would cost about $8 million to $13 million per mile, a recent company white paper says. That’s about on par with the 
$7 million to $10 million cost per mile for an equivalent conventional 765 kilovolt line.

I wonder what happens if the nitrogen supply leaks. The article says that being below ground, the cables are more terrorist proof, but I wouldn't be so sure.

Credibility gap

Rape case puts sharia police in difficult position | The Jakarta Post

A group of sharia police personnel unusually just sit in the back of a pick-up patrol vehicle while making the rounds in downtown Banda Aceh, Aceh province, on Monday.

No raid is conducted that day at beauty salons or other public places considered prone to sharia (Islamic law) violations. No stern actions are taken or arrests made that day.

“We are decreasing the intensity of raids these days,” Aminah, the spokeswoman for the Banda Aceh female sharia police force, said.

The credibility of sharia police in the province has been completely, and rightly, destroyed following the rape of a university student by three sharia police officers last week.

“Because of this case we don’t dare warn or advise people in violation of sharia law. They will fight back and insult us if we do so. It’s better to keep a low profile at the moment,” Aminah said.

The article goes on to note that there is quite a popular movement to get sharia police banned in Aceh.

Whipped up in an hour?

Dezeen - Lad Musician Nagoya by General Design

I love it when architects come up with a concrete windowless box as a design concept, and then get praise for it. I always suspect the project must get knocked over in an afternoon on the computer.

Bill Gates on reducing CO2

Bill Gates: Why We Need Innovation, Not Insulation

Nothing too complicated here: he simply makes the point that no where near enough is being done in R&D for the necessary long term goals of reducing CO2.

A post viewing recommendation

Flying the Secret Sky: The Story of the RAF Ferry Command

I very much enjoyed this documentary on the ABC a couple of nights ago. It's still available for viewing on ABC iView.

It's always good to learn about aspects of the Second World War which are new to me and make for fascinating stories.

The good oil

Fish oil slows burn of genetic fuse in ageing | Science | The Guardian

Taking fish oil supplements is said to protect against heart disease, improve survival rates after a heart attack, reduce mental decline in old age and help to prevent age-related changes in the eye that can lead to blindness. Research has also shown that rodents live one-third longer when given a diet enriched with fish-derived omega-3.

Although omega-3 fatty acids have powerful anti-inflammatory properties and lower levels of some blood fats, the mechanisms behind these effects are poorly understood. The new research suggests that omega-3 has a direct effect on biological ageing by slowing down the rate at which protective caps on the ends of chromosomes shorten.

The caps, called telomeres, are made from copied strands of DNA and have a similar function to bookends or the plastic ends of shoelaces. They prevent the ends of chromosomes – the "packages" of DNA in the cell nucleus – becoming damaged and keep the DNA organised and contained.

Congratulations - your genitals have rights

'Naked scanners' may breach human rights | News.com.au

The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has written to the Government expressing concerns about the proposed installation of the scanners, saying they may violate the right to privacy outlined in the Human Rights Act.

Yes, who would have guessed that my penis has the right not to be viewed on a sketchy black and white headless body image (I understand the systems are planned to obscure the face) by a bored security guard in a remote room who probably has to watch about 3000 images a day.

I hope someone in Britain goes to the Commission over the scandalous human rights issue of public urinals without privacy screens.

Glaciers are confusing!

Well, there's been a lot of media coverage over the IPCC mistake of referring to Himalayas glaciers "disappearing by 2035."

Perhaps the best analysis of how the error evolved is in a comment by Dan following Tim Lambert's post about the controversy. It would appear that the source of the error was in a 1999 India Environmental Port article, which changed a 1996 Russian's rough estimate of how long it would take all glaciers to melt from 2350 to 2035.

New Scientist helped perpetrate the error in a 1999 article, and now claims (wrongly, it appears) that its story was the original source of the error. NS journalist Fred Pearce also says that Indian glaciologist Hasnain had used 2035 in an interview with him. (In New Scientist he says it was an email interview; yet in The Times he is reported as saying it was a telephone interview. If he has the email, I would certainly like to see it. Pearce says Hasnain now admits it was just a rough estimate.)

Pearce's 1999 story claims that the 2035 figure appears in Hasnain's ICSI report, but it's apparently not there at all.

I would like to see directly what Hasnain says about this now. Was he responsible for the error in the Indian Environmental Portal article too? Or is it possible he's "confessing" to something he said in a interview 11 years ago of which he does not have a transcript? (He complains today that he never used 2035 in his research papers, and was never consulted by the IPCC before it used that figure. He's not denying he quoted the figure to Pearce, but I still wonder.)

Anyhow - there is no doubt at all that this is a very, very bad look for the IPCC, especially given IPCC head Pachauri's decision to come out swinging on a clearly wrong figure.

But - that was not really the point of this post. I wanted to note how confusing the whole topic of glaciers (and in particular the effects of their loss) appears to be. In particular, : just how important to Indian rivers is water from glacier melt?

This 2005 Nature report of Barnett & Ors about the dangers to water supply from melting glaciers (and less snow) is an important one. In it, we find in a section talking about the Himalaya-Hindu Kush area:

The hydrological cycle of the region is complicated by the Asian monsoon, but there is little doubt that melting glaciers provide a key source of water for the region in the summer months: as much as 70% of the summer flow in the Ganges and 50–60% of the flow in other major rivers[40,41,42]. In China, 23% of the population lives in the western regions, where glacial melt provides the principal dry season water source[43].

This figure in bold sounds very high, but is repeated in many other places, although I won't link to them now. The references supporting the claim are not available for free online, and the abstracts at least don't seem to repeat it.

On the other hand, Science has quoted a note by an American hydrologist Donald Alford, the purpose of which is:

... to present the results of a preliminary analysis of the hydrologic contribution of the 5000 -7000+ m altitudinal belt of the Nepal Himalaya to the annual streamflow volume of the major rivers of Nepal, and to assess the hydrologic role of the glaciers within this belt.

His conclusion (although it appears to be a very tentative one, pretty much a "back of the envelope" calculation I reckon) is that glacier melt only accounts for 4% of total annual streamflow of the rivers of Nepal. (I think all Nepalese rivers end up in the Ganges.)

Big difference, it seems. Is the issue that:

The Indus and Ganges Rivers currently have little outflow to the sea during the dry season

as stated in an interesting recent study that found one Himalayan glacier seems to have put on no "weight" since the 1950's, since there was no radioactive layer from the atom bomb tests at that time. (So, if the Ganges has little outflow at all in the dry season, might it be that a very small feed from glacier melt might still account for 70% of it?)

The point of this "nuclear glacier" paper is that loss of glacier volume may be occurring by "high elevation thinning", and this has not been taken into account when working out rates of glacier loss. But, then, at the same time I have to admit that the paper repeats the mistake that:

The surface area of glaciers across the TP is projected to decrease from 500,000 km2 measured in 1995 to 100,000 km2 in 2030

when it should have been (see Dan's comment above) 2350.

Furthermore, someone in comments at Real Climate has linked to some background notes used at the recent AGU conference for a press presentation which has lots of relevant information. (Be warned, it is a very big .pdf file.)

This is actually well worth reading carefully. They point out that Himalayan glaciers are behaving differently in different zones, but overall they are losing mass. Their estimate of the average rate of Himalayan glacier loss (measured by area, not volume, I think) is anywhere from .05% to .01% per annum (see page 14). If the higher rate is true (although they seem to think it unlikely) that would be 20% loss in 40 years. (Total loss in about 200 or so years, then, I guess; which isn't so far off the 350 years that we earlier mentioned.)

But as to the effect on water supply of Indian generally, the conclusion (see page 42) is:

As we have calculated, melting glaciers (specifically, negative mass balance components of the melt) contribute an estimated 1.2% (perhaps factor of 2 uncertain) of total runoff of three of the most important drainages, the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra combined. The seasonal flow regulation influences and the negative mass balance is more important in local drainages close to the glacier sources, where glaciers can dominate the hydrology in arid regions, but on the scale of the subcontinent, glaciers are secondary players in looming hydrologic problems, which stem more from population growth and inefficiency of water resource distribution and application.

So, there are some mighty confusing figures being flung around as to how important or unimportant glacier melt is to Indian water supply.

Is it possible that the very high figure of 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges (as mentioned in the Barnett Nature paper) is actually including basin snow melt and not just glacier melt? That could explain a lot. If climate change reduces snow in those areas, it may well be much more important issue than glacier melt, at least further downstream. And the title of the Barnett article is, after all: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions.

Besides which, even without worrying about snow and glaciers, at least one study (and I am sure there are more) suggests climate change:

could influence monsoon dynamics and cause less summer precipitation, a delay in the start of monsoon season and longer breaks between the rainy periods.

The reliance of India on the monsoon is pretty remarkable:

The summer monsoons are responsible for approximately 75% of the total annual rainfall in major parts of the region and produce almost 90% of India's water supply, he said.

Anyhow, despite all this reading, I still remain quite confused on the issue. Glaciologists and hydrologists seem to have done a pretty bad job at dealing with the issue without confusing themselves, as well as the public.

As expected

BBC News - Venezuela's economy in further slide

A good summary of the Chavez led crumbling economy (and infra-structure) of Venezuela.

What you suspected about gridiron was right

I Was Watching a Commercial and a Football Game Broke Out

This post quotes from the WSJ:

According to a Wall Street Journal study of four recent broadcasts, and similar estimates by researchers, the average amount of time the ball is in play on the field during an NFL game is about 11 minutes.

In other words, if you tally up everything that happens between the time the ball is snapped and the play is whistled dead by the officials, there’s barely enough time to prepare a hard-boiled egg. In fact, the average telecast devotes 56% more time to showing replays.

So what do the networks do with the other 174 minutes in a typical broadcast? Not surprisingly, commercials take up about an hour. As many as 75 minutes, or about 60% of the total air time, excluding commercials, is spent on shots of players huddling, standing at the line of scrimmage or just generally milling about between snaps.

I've never tried to watch a game on TV, but certainly you get the impression watching movies about it that nothing much happens on the field, and it turns out that impression is true. It seems to be more about large groups of people gathering together to amuse themselves with anything but what is going on in the field of play - as Australians do during tedious games of cricket. (At least gridiron has the good grace to be finished in one afternoon.)

Irony

Islamic Solidarity Games cancelled over Gulf dispute

The Islamic Solidarity Games, due to be held in Iran in April, have been called off because of a dispute with Arab countries over what to call the Gulf.

The games federation in Saudi Arabia said the Iranian organisers had failed to address its concerns, particularly about the planned logo and medals.

These bear the words "Persian Gulf", but Arab countries, who call it the Arabian Gulf, reject the term.

That's handy

Iran has put up its very own pro-nuclear website, which (as Nature says) sets about "extolling the virtues of its nuclear program."

Included is a map of "Iranian nuclear facilities". Handy for the Israeli Air Force, although who would be surprised if there weren't some slight misinformation in that.

Typical (and Opinion Dominion's simple guide to happy marriages)

Susan Sarandon: sexy, single and 63 | The Observer

This is a long and sympathetic interview with Susan Sarandon, and I find it remarkable for the number of boxes it ticks for what you would expect of a typical Lefty Hollywood star of the modern era:

* at least (I think) 3 long term partners (married or otherwise) mentioned, as well as an affair. It is rumoured that, now 63 and having split with younger partner Tim Robbins, she may be now dating her 32 year old "business partner", but it seems yet to be confirmed;

* happy to do "herbal" drugs - including mushrooms, which I always thought were very much on the hit or miss side of danger - and a very liberal attitude to experimenting with them generally;

* now on a health regime of dubious merit ("dehydrated fruits and vegetables")

It's not mentioned, but I wonder what the chances are of her being sympathetic to Buddhism?

Actually, one position on which she is mildly surprising is on gay marriage: she won't campaign for it because she is against marriage generally.

More generally, why is it that Hollywood seems to make long term relationships next to impossible? I suspect it may in significant part be due to the long absences from each other when movies need to be made on location. (Careers such as the military suffer the same problem.)

No doubt, being successful in almost any field is a powerful attractant generally to the opposite sex, and places an inordinate amount of temptation in the path of the famous and even moderately powerful. How else can you explain the puzzling sexual escapades of many, many physically unappealing politicians.

Yes, for long lasting marriages no one should be too successful in their work (that is, too rich or too famous), or travel separately too often. They should not do illicit drugs. But they should have children, although that's just my hunch; I can't say for sure whether statistics back that up. (I bet someone has done the research). And they should not sleep with other people.

All pretty simple, really.

An unusual life story

Calm reflections on a turbulent life | The Japan Times Online

I would say his memoirs would be well worth reading.

Wanted for my backyard

Deep Discount on Space Shuttles - NYTimes.com

Only $28.8 million will get you a used space shuttle (plus shipping to Australia, I suppose.)

No one wanted them at an original asking price of $42 million. What is wrong with people these days? And has anyone suggested to NASA to try using E-bay?

You can also get a used shuttle engine for free, if you pay for shipping and handling. Maybe at least that will fit in my backyard.

A good weekend in Brisbane

In January, a good weekend in Brisbane can consist of the following:

* viewing Fantastic Mr Fox at the South Bank cinemas: this is a very enjoyable film, which I see to my surprise, seems to have made little money in the US. (This is becoming a disturbing theme in my assessment of animated films: I was very keen on The Tale of Despereaux and Astroboy, and both were box office duds.)

The Fox is quirky, and a lot of reviewers suspect adults will enjoy it more than children, but I can tell you my kids both found it laugh out loud funny, and "got" the quirk. It's interesting that it continues George Clooney's fondness for playing characters that aren't as smart as they think they are.

Go see it, with or without children.

* going to the Lifeline Bookfest at the Convention Centre. This has become a bit of an institution in Brisbane, now running for 8 days with well over a million second hand books for sale. You can spend a long, long time there, but even with visits limited by the lower attention span of children, I always manage to find something. (This year, I got the Graham Greene novels I recently said I wanted to read.)

One other observation: the Brisbane Convention Centre seems to me to be a particularly nice place, as far as convention centres go. Good location, lots of parking, lots of toilets, lots of headroom. I enjoy just about anything there.

* On Sunday, down to the Gold Coast for a swim followed by chicken and champagne* lunch.

Ocean water at the Gold Coast at the moment is at a very typical and comfortable summer temperature of 24 degrees. It was the subject of much discussion yesterday, with my Gold Coast residing relatives, how you only have to go about 40 km further south and the ocean water always seems distinctly colder, and much harder to enjoy getting into.

I am told it is all about the point at which a northern and southern ocean current meet, and a nephew suggested that it might also have something to do with Cape Byron being further east and trapping the north moving current nearer the shore. Certainly, the water at Ballina a few weeks ago felt very cold indeed.

For years I have been meaning to do some internet snooping to confirm this often observed sudden drop in temperatures off the Australian East coast, and one day I'll get around to it.

Meanwhile, I'll just take it as some sort of proof that God just especially loves Southern Queensland. (Except for those bits of Toowoomba, where He hasn't let it rain much for about 10 years.)

* Well, by "champagne", I mean $7 a bottle Jacob's Creek sparkling. My wife and I still think that it is the best of the sub $10 Australian champagne styles, and at that price in summer we tend to drink it a couple of times a week.

The odd allure of whiter skin

Creams Offering Lighter Skin May Also Bring Health Risks - NYTimes.com

It was only in the last couple of years, I think, that I read somewhere about the popularity of skin lightening creams in India.

The article above talks about the popularity of the creams amongst Hispanic and black folk in America, and how they are often causing serious skin problems:

... it is not as if dark-skinned women are imagining a bias, said Dr. Glenn, who is president of the American Sociological Association. “Sociological studies have shown among African-Americans and also Latinos, there’s a clear connection between skin color and socioeconomic status. It’s not some fantasy. There is prejudice against dark-skinned people, especially women in the so-called marriage market.”..

Users are not necessarily immigrants, said Dr. Eliot F. Battle Jr., who has a dermatology practice in Washington, where he treats side effects from lightening creams “not only containing corticosteroids, but mercury,” a poison that can damage the nervous system.

I guess that, in a somewhat bizarre twist, Obama's election might give encouragement to black Americans to aim high, but do nothing to help decrease prejudice against the darker skinned amongst them.