Another AGW is bad for fish study

Expansion of oxygen minimum zones may reduce available habitat for tropical pelagic fishes

The abstract:

Climate model predictions^{1, 2} and observations^{3, 4} reveal regional declines in oceanic dissolved oxygen, which are probably influenced by global warming⁵. Studies indicate ongoing dissolved oxygen depletion and vertical expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the tropical northeast Atlantic Ocean^{6, 7}. OMZ shoaling may restrict the usable habitat of billfishes and tunas to a narrow surface layer^{8, 9}. We report a decrease in the upper ocean layer exceeding 3.5 ml l⁻¹ dissolved oxygen at a rate of ≤1 m yr⁻¹ in the tropical northeast Atlantic (0–25° N, 12–30° W), amounting to an annual habitat loss of ~5.95×10¹³ m³, or 15% for the period 1960–2010. Habitat compression and associated potential habitat loss was validated using electronic tagging data from 47 blue marlin. This phenomenon increases vulnerability to surface fishing gear for billfishes and tunas^{8, 9}, and may be associated with a 10–50% worldwide decline of pelagic predator diversity¹⁰. Further expansion of the Atlantic OMZ along with overfishing may threaten the sustainability of these valuable pelagic fisheries and marine ecosystems.

Big ideas by Newt

Apocalypse Newt

So, Newt Gingrich is known for having hi-tec dreams of everything from lunar colonies to space based missile defence to geo-engineering. I remember reading on his (Pournelle's) blog that Jerry Pournelle used to be have some association with him (as an advisor, perhaps) and that would probably explain Gingrich's fondness for all things "space".

In fact, after taking climate change seriously, Gingrich has now flipped to being a skeptic, just as Pournelle always has been. But Jerry Pournelle is getting on (age 78): it seems to be built into the natural psychology of aging males that believing in AGW gets harder and harder for them over the age of 65. How old is Gingrich, by the way? 68, I see. Well, that explains that.

But even Romney is 64: he probably will start genuinely stop believing in AGW next year.

(And just why do Republicans so often go with the old dudes as presidential candidates? OK, so George Bush was an exception, but Reagan, Dole, McCain, Bush Snr?)

Anyway, as a fan of the return to the moon myself, this should make me feel more generous than I do towards Gingrich. But I find the guy hard to like. Seems far too flip floppy on everything (not just climate change), and doesn't really have the right image of a leader, especially against a more youthful Democrat.

Honestly, if the Republicans want to look dynamic, they should chose Huntsman. But he's poison to the doomed idiot wing of the Republicans known as the Tea Party, due to having done terrible things like genuinely believe in AGW (before having to semi-recant for political purposes) and being sophisticated in his knowledge of foreign affairs.

The Republicans are a lost cause, for now.

Update:

This New Yorker article notes that he has written quite a lot in the alternative history genre too.

It also argues that this is what's behind his sudden popularity:

Gingrich’s sudden rise and special appeal to the emotions of “the base,” one suspects, stem less from his vaunted “big ideas” than from his long-cultivated, unparalleled talent for contempt. In 1990, when he was not yet Speaker, he pressed a memo on Republican candidates for office, instructing them to use certain words when talking about the Democratic enemy: “betray,” “bizarre,” “decay,” “anti-flag,” “anti-family,” “pathetic,” “lie,” “cheat,” “radical,” “sick,” “traitors,” and more. His own vocabulary of contempt has grown only more poisonously flowery. President Obama’s actions cannot be understood except as an expression of “Kenyan, anti-colonial behavior.” Liberals constitute a “secular-socialist machine” that is “as great a threat to America as Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union.” There is “a gay and secular fascism in this country that wants to impose its will on the rest of us” and “is prepared to use violence.” In this campaign, Gingrich’s performances in televised debates have been widely deemed effective. But what has won him his most visceral cheers from the audiences in the halls—audiences shaped and coarsened by years of listening to talk radio and watching Fox News—is his sneering attacks on moderators, especially those representing the hated “liberal” media.

In March, at the Cornerstone Church, in San Antonio, Gingrich declared, “I am convinced that, if we do not decisively win the struggle over the nature of America,” his grandchildren will live “in a secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American.” Last spring, this was a kind of right-wing performance art. Now it is the language of the man leading in the Republican polls, a man who—in the real world, not the alt-world—could, not inconceivably, become President of the United States. Imagine that.

What a country...

How Do You Prove Someone's a Witch in Saudi Arabia? - By Uri Friedman | Foreign Policy

An amazing article about the ongoing prosecution and punishment of witchcraft in Saudi Arabia. Some highlights:

....the Saudi Interior Ministry announced on Monday that it had beheaded a woman named Amina bint Abdul Halim bin Salem Nasser for practicing "witchcraft and sorcery." The London-based al-Hayat newspaper, citing the chief of the religious police who arrested the woman after a report from a female investigator, claims Nasser was tricking people into paying $800 per session to have their illnesses cured.

So, how did Saudi authorities prove Nasser was a witch? The government hasn't gone into detail, but a look at the kingdom's past witchcraft cases suggests the bar for proving someone guilty isn't very high. Witch hunting is fairly institutionalized in Saudi Arabia, with the country's religious police running an Anti-Witchcraft Unit and a sorcery hotline to combat practices like astrology and fortune telling that are considered un-Islamic.

Huh. A country with a sorcery hotline. Just how often do people use this for mere revenge against someone who annoys them? The article does note that foreigners need to be particularly careful:

A Human Rights Watch researcher tells The Media Line that foreigners in particular are often the targets of sorcery accusations because of their traditional practices or, occasionally, because Saudi men facing charges of sexual harassment by domestic workers want to discredit their accusers.

The evidence arrayed against witchcraft suspects typically revolves around statements from accusers and suspicious personal belongings that suggest the supernatural, in a country where superstition is still widespread. In 2006, for example, an Eritrean national was imprisoned and lashed hundreds of times for "charlatanry" after prosecutors argued that his leather-bound personal phone booklet with writings in the Tigrinya alphabet was a "talisman."

A year later, Saudi authorities beheaded an Egyptian pharmacist who had been accused by neighbors of casting spells to separate a man from his wife and placing Korans in mosque bathrooms.

What a great country to avoid.

Don't plan on this solution

Chemically scrubbing CO2 from the air too expensive

From the link:

Someday the world may be in a position to lower the concentration of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by chemically removing it from the air.

But not soon; the process is simply too expensive, say scientists from Stanford and MIT.

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, co-authored by Stanford energy and environmental researcher Jennifer Wilcox, concludes that if air-capture of carbon dioxide with chemicals is ever used, it will be far in the future.

For now, it is much more economically efficient to capture the carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere from the smokestacks of large centralized sources such as power plants, cement plants, fertilizer plants and refineries.

After a detailed comparison, the research team concluded that the cost of removal from air is likely to be on the order of $1,000 per ton of carbon dioxide, compared with $50 to $100 per ton for current power-plant scrubbers.

More on rat thoughts

What do animals 'know'? More than you may think

Rats are getting some unusually good PR lately. Last week, it was studies that indicate empathy for other rats, this week, their thinking seems deeper than we, um, thought:

"Rats often make judgments and behave as if they're rational creatures," said UCLA associate professor of psychology Aaron Blaisdell, a member of UCLA's Brain Research Institute and senior author of a new study published in the December issue of the journal Psychonomic Bulletin and Review.

"To make a decision in the face of uncertainty, rats call on prior history and reasoning," Blaisdell said. "They apply what they know to a situation where they are uncertain. The rats are not necessarily thinking like little humans, but they have learned through experience. A lot of animal behavior seems to be rational. Their behavior follows logical inferences."

You can read about the studies suggesting this at the link.

These studies took their time

Acidic oceans threaten fish : Nature News & Comment

I've become slack about posting items concerning ocean acidification. This is partly because a lot of the studies being reported at the Ocean Acidification blog have become very technical in nature - examining in minute detail the biochemistry of marine organisms and trying to tell exactly how ocean chemistry affects it - and also because there doesn't seem to have been much reported lately on the rate of acidification.

But still, I should go back and catch some of the stories that I have missed.

Anyway, today there is a Nature report (see above) about a couple of studies indicating that young larvae of a couple of fish do not do well under acidification.

Skeptics will no doubt have a couple of objections: firstly, some coastal waters where fish breed already have a really high range of natural pH. I doubt that this is a valid objection, as an increase in acidification from the atmosphere just means that the range is going to shift its mean and peaks to the high end, so it still may be a problem. The second issue will be whether natural selection will mean fish will be able to evolve quickly to adapt to the new acidification regime.

Quick adaptation to warmer sea warmers was indicated in a recent Australian study, but whether this will apply to acidification is anyone's guess.

On the downside of the warmer water story, another study recently indicated that fish parasites can do better in warmer water, which just shows how complicated it is trying to work out the net effect of warming oceans and increasing acidification.

Still, it surprises me somewhat that it took this long for a studies on fish larvae mortality under increased acidification took this long to be done.

Big rain

John Nielsen-Gammon has had a series of posts up about material he has found interesting at the AGU conference last week.

As the the extensive floods in Queensland last year made me consider the impact of floods as a major issue with AGW, I will reproduce Dr J's post from Climate Abyss about possible record heavy rains to come:

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a commonly-used design input value for water projects such as dams for which failure is not an option. It’s estimated, in effect, by assuming that all possible factors contributing to heavy rain (upstart speed, moisture content, duration) come together at the same time and place to produce the flood to end all floods.

Ken Kunkel noted that in a warming climate, one of these is expected to change more than all the others: the moisture content of the air. What about the worst case scenario: the peak moisture content of the air at any given location? Kunkel showed evidence that the peak has indeed increased over time across most of the United States, though there are data quality issues that need to be worked out (historical weather balloon water vapor measurements are pretty dodgy). More importantly, the climate models are consistent in showing increases in the future.

We’re talking about increases of 10% every few decades. This would correspond directly to 10% increases in PMP. And increases much greater than 10% in the cost of new projects. And even greater expenses for retrofitting. That’s unless we decide that we are willing to tolerate a greater risk of man-made catastrophe from dam failure than before.

Dateless in Kyoto

The Japanese government takes its dwindling birth rate seriously enough to conduct surveys on how its people are feeling about relationship.  The latest one indicates the population issue is not going to solve itself any time soon:

According to the poll in June this year by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, a record high 61.4 percent of unmarried men between 18 and 34 reported having no girlfriend, up 9.2 percentage points since 2005. Unmarried women with no boyfriend in the same age group hit a record 49.5 percent, up 4.8 percentage points. The very idea of having girlfriends and boyfriends seems to be on the way out.

Shopping underground

Salon, of all websites, has an article about renewed interest in the recreational and commercial use of underground spaces in the US.  I like this paragraph:

Historically, developers have spent a lot of time trying to make underground spaces feel like they’re not underground. But the weirdness of an underground park is exactly why we like it. It’s intriguing and strange and a little bit spooky. “The underground can be claustrophobic, but it can also be this cozy, Fantastic Mr. Fox layer of reality,” says Barasch. So, rather than turn underground spaces into sterile retail or prefab food courts, ablaze with primary colors and piped-in pop music, developers could instead embrace the natural state of these spaces — their “undergroundness” — when designing for them. This doesn’t mean making them cheerless, it simply means respecting their subterranean identity, much like the High Line kept in place some of the former railroad’s industrial decay.

Movies to see

After a year of not too much to get excited about, it's surprising to see that there are at least 3 movies of interest which are about to be released in Australia and are getting strong reviews:

1.  early reviews of Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol are very good, and as I anticipated, Brad Bird has apparently made an excellent live action director.  A couple of reviewers are actually calling this the most enjoyable MI movie,  so I am keen to see it.

The NYT has an interesting article about Mr Bird in which it's noted that Tom Cruise contacted him after The Incredibles and asked, if ever he wanted to do live action, to direct him.  There you go - Tom has good intuition about some things, at least. 

2.  Tintin starts on Boxing Day, and it's likely my family will be there to see it at the earliest opportunity.  The reviews remain mostly strong, and I see it has already made a couple of hundred million dollars in Europe.  (It seems particularly popular in France - I am a little surprised at the weakness in the English box office.  Maybe some people did pay attention to the relentless and bizarre Guardian obsession against the film?

3.  Spielberg's War Horse also gets released on Boxing Day, and although it seems to me to be getting very little in the way of pre-publicity,  some preview audiences have been pretty impressed.  I am pretty sure I will have to overcome my horse aversion as see it.

Saturday night cooking report

Why did it take me so many years to get around to cooking a version of paella?  I've like the idea of this dish for a long time.  I think I have rarely eaten it, but I have always like watching how it's made on cooking shows.

Finally, I was prompted by a Slate article headline I saw this week: 

Paella Is a Party! Stop wasting your time with risotto.

So, last night I finally got around to making a relatively straight forward chicken and prawn paella, and it came out pretty good. The recipe was based on one from from taste.com.au (which had many, many versions to try), but I did vary it a bit:

Ingredients (serves 6)

• 1 tbsp olive oil
• 6 chicken thigh fillets, halved
• 12 medium green king prawns, peeled leaving tails intact, deveined
• 2 chorizo sausages, coarsely chopped
• 1 brown onion, coarsely chopped
• 1 red capsicum, seeded, coarsely chopped
• 2 cups arborio rice
• 2 garlic cloves, crushed
• 2 tsp ground smoked paprika
• 1/2 tsp saffron threads
• 400g can diced tomatoes
• 1 litre chicken stock
• 1 cup water
• Fresh continental parsley leaves, to serve

The chicken is cooked in the olive oil first (and set aside), then the prawns (also set aside) and finally the chorizo.   Leave the chorizo in and add the onion and capsicum and cook til softened.  (Actually, I think next time I would just add the choriso, onion and capsicum at the same time.)  Add the rice, garlic, paprika and saffron (personally, I don't think the absence of saffron is going to be noticeable) and stir for a minute, then add the tomato and stock.  Leave to cook under low heat for 15 minutes (no stirring is important) Add the chicken gently and let cook for another 10 minutes.  

Now, the recipe then calls for the cup of water, add the prawns on top, cover and cook for 5 minutes.  This reheats the prawns, but I think you would always have to leave the cover off again to let all the additional water be aborbed/steam off.

I changed the water to half a cup of white wine and water, but even then, I think next time I would try a bit less liquid at this stage. 

This receipe is also devoid of green (well, save for the parsley, which I didn't have.)  So we added a cup of frozen peas that had been unfrozen in boiling water, and stirred it in at the last minute.

Some recipes note that it is important to let paella rest for 5 or 10 minutes after cooking, and I think there is  something to that.

I'm not sure that arborio rice is really the best for this too; next time I would be inclined just to try any old medium grain rice; but don't get me wrong, it tasted pretty good even with arborio.

Anyway, even the kids found it acceptable, and my wife liked it too, although we both agreed a little bit of chilli flake would be nice too if we were cooking it just for ourselves.  In any event, it was another happy Saturday night when a new recipe is successful.

The kind rat

Helping your fellow rat: Rodents show empathy-driven behavior

Rats will try to free trapped fellow rats, it seems. How nice of them.

Higgs interrupts my busyness

Is the Higgs boson real? | Ian Sample | Science | guardian.co.uk

The Guardian reports on rumours of a significant Higgs announcement, and helpfully provides some physicists' commentary.

Climate change not in retreat

Three-quarters of climate change is man-made : Nature News & Comment

Interesting new study with some interesting conclusions, using a new method:

Knutti and Huber found that greenhouse gases contributed 0.6–1.1 °C to the warming observed since the mid-twentieth century, with the most statistically likely value being a contribution of about 0.85 °C. Around half of that contribution from greenhouse gases — 0.45 °C — was offset by the cooling effects of aerosols. These directly influence Earth's climate by scattering light; they also have indirect climate effects through their interactions with clouds.
The authors calculated a net warming value of around 0.5 °C since the 1950s, which is very close to the actual temperature rise of 0.55 °C observed over that period. Changes in solar radiation — a hypothesis for global warming proffered by many climate sceptics — contributed no more than around 0.07 °C to the recent warming, the study finds.
To test whether recent warming might just be down to a random swing in Earth’s unstable climate — another theory favoured by sceptics — Knutti and Huber conducted a series of control runs of different climate models without including the effects of the energy-budget parameters. But even if climate variability were three times greater than that estimated by state-of-the-art models, it is extremely unlikely to have produced a warming trend as pronounced as that observed in the real world, they found.

The Kevin problem

Julia Gillard rallies as Tony Abbott's rating falls, while Kevin Rudd blasts Labor conference | News.com.au

Is it just me, or does News Ltd seem especially keen to talk up "Kevin Rudd is bound to challenge" stories i the last few weeks?

I would assume he was upset at not being mentioned by Gillard at her conference speech, but surely the point is that no commentator seems to think that Rudd has more than a handful of rusted on supporters within the Parliament. Maybe he is also smarting over not being recognized for priming Slipper to take over the speaker role: but then again, he denied he was directly involved in a plot.

Anyhow, I would have thought that most Australians at this time of year were not playing too close attention to the Labor conference, and for those that did, it seems to me that they probably got the impression of Gillard coming out of it pretty well.

Sure, the party now supports gay marriage, but no expects that it will pass on a conscience vote. There - those that want it can now blame the Coalition for not doing a similar thing, as I wouldn't mind betting that the few Labor people who would not vote for it might be matched by the few Coalition that would cross the floor. A conscience vote on this seems to me the right thing to do on a matter that a large section of the community does think relates to a very ancient tradition and matter relating to morality.

Uranium to India was a clear Gillard win, and the endorsement of a disability insurance scheme is a real Labor style reform that might go over with the electorate as very worthwhile.

But what to do about Kevin if he maintains his unhappiness in the new year? I mean, until the pokies reform is bedded down (probably by a compromise of some sort), I can't see Gillard's approval, or Labor's primary vote, climbing too high just yet. So Kevin will still have something to agitate over.

Yet with a hung parliament, he can't afford to resign and have a by-election, even if a plum UN job was beckoning him.

He is, basically, the unsolvable problem, at least for the next 6 to 12 months.

Soon another "9" will be dropped

On 29 November, the right wing(nutty) site World Net Daily ran a special deal on Herman Cain's book, modestly called "This is Herman Cain - My Journey to the White House", for $9.99 "while supplies last":

"This book is sure to be a collector's item – given the circumstances of his presidential campaign," says Joseph Farah, editor and chief executive officer of WND. "Just look at what presidential memorabilia of the past is selling for these days."

I dare say this collectors item will be available within a week for .99c.

Another unhappy artist

Kurt Vonnegut's dark, sad, cruel side is laid bare | Books | The Observer

I've never read Vonnegut, although I suspect he might be OK. According to the review of a new biography, he didn't have a very happy life, even not counting his horrific war experiences.

The unlucky lights

Finland: in search of the northern lights | Travel | The Observer

A nice bit of travelogue in The Observer about how difficult it can be to spot the Northern Lights even if you allow yourself plenty of opportunity to do so.

Watch the toads

New study suggests how toads might predict earthquakes

We've all heard of strange animal behaviour shortly before an earthquake, but it appears toads have an idea of what's going on quite far in advance:

Grant was studying the toads that lived in a pond near L'Aquila, Italy, in 2009 in the days just before a devastating earthquake struck. In those few days just before it happened, she noted that the toads began leaving. Their numbers dwindled from just under a hundred, to zero, causing her to write about her observations in the Journal of Zoology. That caught the attention of Freund, who was doing work for NASA in studying what happens to rocks when put under extreme stress, as in say, when an earthquake is in the making. He contacted Grant, and the two of them began investigating ways that such rock pressure could impact the environment where the toads lived.

After some experiments in the lab, the two write that when rocks underground come under pressure as a result of geological processes, they let off charged particles. Such particles can very quickly rise to and above the surface of the Earth, impacting such things as pond water and the biological material in it. In the case of the pond in Italy, it seems the toads may have been reacting to changes they felt in the water itself as ions interacting with it react to form minute amounts of hydrogen peroxide. Or it seems possible that ions interacting with organic material in the pond caused substances to be released that either were toxic or less ominously, simply irritating. Either way, it would explain their sudden exodus.

Of course, they are excluding the possibility that toads are psychic. Maybe they lick themselves and then can see the future...

Dire movie alert

Jack and Jill - Movie Reviews - Rotten Tomatoes

Adam Sandler's latest movie, which has just opened in Australia, has earned a spectacularly low 4% approval rating on Rottentomatoes.

Some review comments:

Picture "Tootsie" if everyone in the cast had a head injury....

Jack and Jill is mental destruction-a collision of half-baked comedy sketches, violent potty humor, shrouded racism, shotgun cameos and unapologetic product placement....

Unpleasant even by Sandler's usual standards, it's easily the star's worst film....

Movies like this should be stricken from film history and put in a closet never to be seen again. It's just bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.

The worst Adam Sandler film ever? That indeed sounds like a serious warning.

Barry is not impressed

Rustlings from Republican Environmentalists | Planet3.0

Barry Bickmore, who holds the very lonely position of being a Republican scientist who believes in AGW, is very unhappy about the Republican candidates.

He gets a bit personal - although your average "skeptic" can hardly fault him for that.

Bickmore's Youtube lecture "How to avoid the truth about climate change" is also on the post, and many have said it is very good, but I haven't got around to watching it yet.

This week's bad climate news

Abrupt permafrost thaw increases climate threat

Permafrost thaw will release approximately the same amount of carbon as deforestation, say the authors, but the effect on climate will be 2.5 times bigger because emissions include methane, which has a greater effect on warming than carbon dioxide.

Doesn't work the same way at Catallaxy...

Researches find poop-throwing by chimps is a sign of intelligence

Feeling sleepy

Banishing consciousness: the mystery of anaesthesia - health - 29 November 2011 - New Scientist

I'm not sure how long New Scientists keeps its free articles available for now, but this one, about recent research into trying to work out how anaesthetics work, is pretty interesting.

Back to Schmittner

RealClimate: Ice age constraints on climate sensitivity

Real Climate has a long and fairly technical look at the Schmittner paper, and also concludes that there is reason to think its estimate of climate sensitivity, although within the ballpark of current "best estimate" anyway, may be on the low side.

But the bit I wanted to note here was about the poor reporting of the paper, which I think occurred just about everywhere. Even The Economist called its report "Good News at Last?", which is kind of a meaningless statement unless you are prepared to address the question "compared to what?"

Anyway, as Real Climate points out, part of the problem was really with the press release itself, and some fairly careless comments by some of the authors, who surely have to be more cautious about "sceptics" taking quotes out of context:

Unfortunately, the media coverage has not been very good. Partly, this is related to some ambiguous statements by the authors, and partly because media discussions of climate sensitivity have a history of being poorly done. The dominant frame was set by the press release which made a point of suggesting that this result made “extreme predictions” unlikely. This is fair enough, but had already been clear from the previous work discussed above. This was transformed into “Climate sensitivity was ‘overestimated’” by the BBC (not really a valid statement about the state of the science), compounded by the quote that Andreas Schmittner gave that “this implies that the effect of CO2 on climate is less than previously thought”. Who had previously thought what was left to the readers’ imagination. Indeed, the latter quote also prompted the predictably loony IBD editorial board to declare that this result proves that climate science is a fraud (though this is not Schmittner’s fault – they conclude the same thing every other Tuesday).

The Schmittner et al. analysis marks the insensitive end of the spectrum of climate sensitivity estimates based on LGM data, in large measure because it used a data set and a weighting that may well be biased toward insufficient cooling. Unfortunately, in reporting new scientific studies a common fallacy is to implicitly assume a new study is automatically “better” than previous work and supersedes this. In this case one can’t blame the media, since the authors’ press release cites Schmittner saying that “the effect of CO2 on climate is less than previously thought”. It would have been more appropriate to say something like “our estimate of the effect is less than many previous estimates”.

Well, it's hard to see how that last suggestion would have made that much difference, but still, it seems to me the authors could have been more careful.

The Junior Justice League

Babies embrace punishment earlier than previously thought

"We find that, by eight months, babies have developed nuanced views of reciprocity and can conduct these complex social evaluations much earlier than previously thought," says lead author Prof. Kiley Hamlin, UBC Dept of Psychology.

"This study helps to answer questions that have puzzled evolutionary psychologists for decades," says Hamlin. "Namely, how have we survived as intensely social creatures if our sociability makes us vulnerable to being cheated and exploited? These findings suggest that, from as early as eight months, we are watching for people who might put us in danger and prefer to see antisocial behavior regulated."

For the study, researchers presented six scenarios to 100 babies using animal hand puppets. After watching puppets act negatively or positively towards other characters, the babies were shown puppets either giving or taking toys from these "good" or "bad" puppets. When prompted to choose their favorite characters, babies preferred puppets that punished the bad characters from the original scene compared to those that treated them nicely.

The researchers also examined how older infants would themselves treat good and bad puppets. They tested 64 babies aged 21 months, who were asked to give a treat to, or take a treat away from one of two puppets – one who had previously helped another puppet, and another who had harmed the other puppet. These older babies physically took treats away from the "bad" puppets, and gave treats to the "good" ones.

More physics

Four reasons why the quantum vacuum may explain dark matter

I'm pretty sure I had a post when the idea covered in this article first came up, but it's worth revisiting.

Super battery possible

Battery electrode's 40,000 charge cycles look promising for grid storage

Apparently, lithium ion batteries are only good for 1,000 recharge cycles, although surely that can't include partial recharges? Anyway, it would appear that batteries capable of a lot more are possible. Good.

About that climate sensitivity paper

Apart from the "Climategate 2" emails, about which it is really only climate change denying skeptics who are managing much excitement by taking out of context quotes to match their confirmation bias, the big news in climate science is the Schmittner paper which gives a new, lower range of climate sensitivity based on what happened during the last ice age.

Here are three sources of commentary that show why the paper is definitely not the end of concern about climate change.

* James Annan, whose own work also argues against the possibility of really high climate sensitivity, still suspects that the sensitivity indicated by this paper may be an underestimate.

* Skeptical Science has an excellent article on the paper, and notes (as have some others around the place) that the "glass half empty" way of looking at it is that even if it shows lower temperature sensitivity, it can be taken to mean that modest changes in CO2 seem to be capable of making dramatic climate changes on land:

...Schmittner et al. have assumed that the difference between a glacial maximum and interglacial temperature is a mere 2.6°C.  The global average surface temperature has already warmed 0.8°C over the past century.  During the LGM, the surface was covered with huge ice sheets, plant life was different, and sea levels were 120 meters lower. As Schmittner notes:

"Very small changes in temperature cause huge changes in certain regions, so even if we get a smaller temperature rise than we expected, the knock-on effects would still be severe."

*  One of the co-authors gives a detailed interview at Planet 3, and if very specific about saying that they do not feel they have "proved" that really high climate sensitivity outcomes are not possible. 

Yet more Waugh stories

My life as a Waugh | Life and style | The Guardian

The Waugh family seems to be a never ending source of anecdote about odd literary characters of the 20th century, and here we have another example, with an interesting interview with one of Evelyn Waugh's nephews.

It's mostly about Evelyn's older brother Alec, but we do get this snippet about the famously cranky uncle:

When he was nine, Peter was introduced to Evelyn. It is a vivid memory. His uncle sat behind an enormous desk in his library. "Bring him in," Evelyn called, and Peter was ushered into the room by Evelyn's wife, Laura. "Turn him round." Peter was spun round. "Take him away," Evelyn barked.

"Can you imagine an uncle saying that to you?" says Peter. "Talk about intimidation."

The terrified boy fell in love with his Aunt Laura. "I thought Evelyn Waugh was an ogre and I was going to rescue her," he says. "I did see him being very funny, but Evelyn was cruel. My sister once asked about the pre-Raphaelites and he said, 'Do you know anything about painting?' and she was only a young girl and didn't, and he said, 'Well, I won't bother then.'"

It's not as good as the eating all of the rationed bananas in front of his children, but still.

Tony Abbott...

is not having a good end of year celebration. See Dodopathy for details.

Gotta be careful

A report at the BBC notes that accidental 'slow' overdoses of paracetamol are not so uncommon.

An interesting medical issue

"The Walking Dead" characters mistakenly think the morning after pill causes abortion. Do the writers?

I wasn't aware that there was a debate about how the "morning after" pill works, but apparently there is:

Morning-after pills are not abortion. You can't even get abortion pills from a typical pharmacy, since RU-486, the actual abortion pill, is dispensed mainly at doctor's offices. Morning-after pills are contraception, and they work by stifling ovulation before any sperm can make their way toward the Fallopian tubes. Anti-choicers claim they work by preventing fertilized eggs from implanting, but there is no scientific evidence for this claim, and strong evidence against it. But even if you mistakenly believe this is how emergency contraception works, that still has no bearing on pregnancies that have already begun and show up on pregnancy tests, as portrayed on this show. She might as well have been sucking down candy cigarettes in hopes of causing an abortion.

That link leads to this abstract:

A major barrier to the widespread acceptability and use of emergency contraception (EC) are concerns regarding the mechanisms of action of EC methods. Today, levonorgestrel (LNG) in a single dose of 1.5 mg taken within 120 h of an unprotected intercourse is the most widely used EC method worldwide. It has been demonstrated that LNG-EC acts through an effect on follicular development to delay or inhibit ovulation but has no effect once luteinizing hormone has started to increase. Thereafter, LNG-EC cannot prevent ovulation and it does not prevent fertilization or affect the human fallopian tube. LNG-EC has no effect on endometrial development or function. In an in vitro model, it was demonstrated that LNG did not interfere with blastocyst function or implantation.

Interesting...

A way to increase use of public transport

Gosh:  if only government or Councils would pay for such performances to take place on random trains each day, patronage could increase quite a bit.

While we're in a happy video mood, you should also go watch the one from last year featuring the Hallelujah Chorus as done in a small Alaskan village.  It's very charming, and gives a bit of an idea of what it's like living in that remote part of the world. 

Both of these came from Happy Catholic, who does indeed seem to always be happy.

A long history of inaction

The history of American health-care reform : The New Yorker

I was arguing yesterday at another blog about how the Tea Partiers calling health care reform in the US "socialism" really drove me nuts, and showed that they were stupidly tribalistic.

I didn't realise initially that the history of calling it socialism was so old in the US, and that attempts have been made for a century now to get \universal health insurance going. The above article provides some details, and people should also read the Wikipedia article on Ronald Reagan's 10 minute 1961 recording on the e-vils of socialised medicine.

That's odd

Weatherwatch: Puzzling phenomena of sky battles | News | The Guardian

I've long liked reading about historical mysteries, but I can't say I have heard of these before:

Perhaps the most puzzling of meteorological phenomena were the battles in the sky which were reported right up until the 19th century in many European countries, including England.

In September 1654, for example, soldiers in Hull witnessed a great battle between two armies of cavalry and infantry in the air. Formations of pikemen repeatedly charged each other; the battle ended when a third army appeared and scattered the others with cannon fire and musketry. Another such battle was seen in Hull in October 1658, and witnesses even reported the smell of gunpowder.

Sometimes whole villages or towns witnessed sky battles, including respectable citizens.

The article, which is rather short, then just says that most commentators believe these to be re-workings of storms, clouds or the northern lights. Sure sounds rather active imaginations in those days, though.

Past unhappiness

Very naughty boy

I see from this short interview with the seemingly calm and happy Alan Davies that he has had some difficult issues in his life. One hopes his current state of contentment continues.

Cotton shorts thoughts

For the last year or so, nearly every weekend when I am putting on shorts (as one usually does in Brisbane, even during winter,) I think about the longevity of cotton clothes.  I'm not sure of the age of the three pairs of shorts between which I alternate, but I would guess 8 years.  They still fit, but two of them have developed holes in the pockets in which I keep my keys, and I have been meaning to shop for some new ones for a long time.  As for style, let's face it:  provided you buy mens' cotton casual shorts that are of roughly knee length and moderately heavy fabric, fashions in this part of one's attire tend not to change rapidly.  And given the ridiculous hardiness of cotton, it tends to be either an expanding waste line, the fading colour of the cotton, or pocket holes, that provide the urge to replace them; not any lack of integrity in the material itself.

Thinking about cotton's durability made me realise I knew nothing of the history of cotton clothes.  Let's Google around and see what we can see.

Starting at Wikipedia's "History of Cotton" entry (perhaps written by someone else with long lasting shorts?):

The history of the domestication of cotton is very complex and is not known exactly.^[1] Several isolated civilizations independently domesticated and converted cotton into fabric.

It goes on to mention cotton being spun in the Indus Valley since at least 3500 BC, although it would seem likely it was being done in Mexico and South America even earlier than that.  Getting closer to properly recorded history, it notes:

Herodotus, an ancient Greek historian, mentions Indian cotton in the 5th century BCE as "a wool exceeding in beauty and goodness that of sheep." When Alexander the Great invaded India, his troops started wearing cotton clothes that were more comfortable than their previous woolen ones.^[5] Strabo, another Greek historian, mentioned the vividness of Indian fabrics, and Arrian told of Indian–Arab trade of cotton fabrics in 130 CE.^[6]

But a more detailed explanation of cotton in pre-history is to be found at some other websites.  One site notes, for example, that the oldest cotton cloth found was from Mexico and dates from 5000 BC.  It also says the Egyptian use goes back to 3000 BC.

Another site which mentions cotton talks about the invention of weaving and clothes in a broader context.  It's been around for a long, long time:

We have no direct evidence for the antiquity of clothing, but a researcher named Mark Stoneking recently identified variation in different species of human hair and body lice that he argues indicate clothing came into use among Homo sapiens around 70 Kya (= thousands of years ago).

The oldest evidence for weaving is around 25 Kya, from a site called Dolni Vestonice, in the Czech Republic.  This evidence takes the form of impressions of woven fabric left on clay artifacts that were later fired and preserved.  It is almost certainly the case that fiber-based clothing is much older than this, but tropical environments do not usually preserve such organic remains.

Oldest evidence of cotton and weaving are both fairly young, from Neolithic contexts in the Near East, after 10 Kya.  Again, it is almost certainly the case that both the use of cotton and weaving are much older than this.

Sadly, this whole topic is one of those archaeological "blind spots" where we can give only very qualified answers.

So, at least 10,000 years of cotton pants (or their equivalent)?   If you want to go further into a time line of clothes generally, you can always look at the Wikipedia  Timeline of clothing and textiles technology.   One unusual thing that caught my eye:

c. 3000 BC – Breeding of domesticated sheep with a wooly fleece rather than hair in the Near East.^[2]

What?  Sheep used to just have hair?  Do any of those survive?  I must follow that link another day...

Anyway, we know now that cotton clothes were a hit with the Europeans when they saw it.  But move forward a bit, and there's a good essay on line about the question of how popular cotton was in the medieval and renaissance period.   Apparently, there was some confusion about the exact nature of the fibre:

In Medieval times, cotton was incorrectly identified as a type of wool by Europeans. It had been described by Theophrastus (306 B.C.), the disciple of Aristotle, as a wool-bearing tree with a pod the size of a spring apple, and leaves like those of the black mulberry. To further complicate matters, John Mandeville (pseudonym), in 1350, wrote an account of seeing Scythian Lambs: "There grew there India a wonderful tree which bore tiny lambs on the endes of its branches. These branches were so pliable that they bent down to allow the lambs to feed when they are hungrie". Late Medieval authors located the tree-lamb in the region of Tatary beyond the Volga (Mongolia). This book, originally written in French, was very popular and was translated into most European languages. The blending of these 2 "facts" was largely responsible for the medieval understanding of "cotton".

The essay includes this cute diagram, presumably from the book, showing the tree lambs:

Cute, in a weird medieval way.

The essay then gives a short history of the spread of cotton through much of Europe (not counting Spain, which was an early user due to their Arab invasion):

Cotton was first "officially" introduced to Europe after the First crusade. Italy was the first Christian nation to understand the significance of cotton, and began marketing it from the 12th century onwards. As a luxury fabric, Germany's earliest record of cotton products was in 1282 as overland transportation from Venice. France began to demand cotton after it appeared at the Champagne Fairs, the first record of sale was from 1376. From those fairs, it spread to England, but in such small quantities, that it was not well known until after the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588, and English merchant ships reached the Levant. And even then, it was heavily opposed by the wool guilds and traders until cotton overtook wool in popularity in the mid 18th century.

I guess this helps to explain the Italian reputation in fashion - they recognised the benefit of cotton ahead of the rest of Europe.

The European cotton industry also appears to have advanced due to a bit of dirty work undertaken by a Catholic priest:

Indian master craftspeople and dyers had for centuries kept the secret of how to create colourful patterns. But some converted to Christianity and were betrayed by a French Catholic priest, Father Coeurdoux, in an early act of industrial espionage. Although sworn to secrecy, he published a step-by-step guide in France. The European textile industry got a leg up.

Father Coeurdoux gets a brief mention in Wikipedia in the entry on chintz.  I didn't really know what that was, but you can go and check it out yourself if, like me, you are vague on fabric terms.  (Interestingly, it was so popular that its import into England and France was banned for a long time to protect the fabric industry in those countries.  Hence the intense interest in exactly how the Indians were making it.)

There is slightly more detail about Father Coeurdoux to be found in this extract from a book Cotton: The Biography of a Revolutionary Fibre (I had to take a screenshot):

Surprisingly, it seems cotton was even important in improving lighting (this is from the medieval essay which is linked to before):

Lighting took a revolutionary turn with the advent of using cotton wicks with wax and tallow candles. First recorded in the 13th century, Arboreum cotton was spun to a thick thread that would then be used to dip into waxes to create candles with better burning and lighting properties. Before this time, candles would have used a bark, wood sliver, or sinew wick, and would have produced a smoky, weak flame. Still, candles made of wax and cotton wicks were expensive, and at first, were used by the church and wealthy. However, by the 16th century, cotton wicks seem to have become the standard, with edicts issued in most Italian towns for the mandatory use of cotton with wax for candles.

What wasn't cotten good for?

Anyway, the point of this ramble was to find out that cotton has been around for a very long time indeed, but I wonder:  how long did (say) cotton togas last 2,000 years ago.  I suppose you have to take into account washing methods, which leads me to this interesting pamphlet:  "How did we Improve our Washing Methods Since Prehistory".   It notes that the Greeks just washed clothes in water, but the Romans washed in large ancient laundromats (as it were) involving trampling on clothes in vats, and used this technique for keeping whites white:

Detergents were used, such as the creta fullonica (fuller’s earth), that was stored in small bowls. It helped remove the grease and enhanced the colours. Urine, collected in public urinals, was used for bleaching, and so was sulphur, which was burned under wooden frames over which the cloth was suspended.

It's hard to imagine how well urine soaked and sulphur smoked clothes could have ended up smelling, but I guess it depends on how well the rinsing process worked.   A more detailed description of the Roman method of urine washing can be found here.

[Incidentally, the urine was collected from public urinal pots, into which the public could empty their chamber pots.  I suppose that it's a bit better than just throwing it onto the streets from your apartment, which is what I remember being told was the practice in Edinburgh (and no doubt many other European cities) centuries later.] 

In any event, I would assume modern washing methods, particularly using the front loading washing machine and the relatively gentle tumbling way they way, is going to make your average bit of cotton cloth last a lot longer than your average toga.

I think we've all learnt something today, including the key result that my shorts could potentially last another 7,000 years or so.

What should I look into next?  Underwear?

Attribution wars

We're going through another outbreak of the Attribution Wars, with a BBC report of a draft IPPC report that apparently seems to take a cautious approach to attribution of recent extreme weather to AGW.   The Guardian, on the other hand, looks at the glass half empty side of the report, for a completely different take.

As for new papers on the issue, James Hansen has a new "manuscript" out which deals with statistical increases in extreme heat.  John Neilson-Gammon thinks it does not always put things in the best way, and refers to his own analysis of the recent Texas heat wave and drought that (more or less) argued that climate change made a severe drought that would have come anyway extraordinarily severe.

But the Hansen paper contains a clear statement in support of a hunch I expressed quite a while ago - that the extreme weather attribution statements coming out of NOAA over the last year or two seemed to be leaping too quickly into a "no connection with AGW" conclusion.  As Hansen writes:

People who deny the global warming cause of these extreme events usually offer instead a meteorological "explanation". For example, it is said that the Moscow heat wave was caused by an atmospheric "blocking" situation, or the Texas heat wave was caused by La Nina ocean temperature patterns. Of course the locations of the extreme anomalies in any given season are determined by the specific weather patterns. However, blocking patterns and La Ninas have always been common, yet the large areas of extreme warming have come into existence only with large global warming. Today's extreme anomalies occur because of simultaneous contributions of specific weather patterns and global warming. For example, places experiencing an extended period of high atmospheric pressure will tend to develop drought conditions that are amplified by the ubiquitous warming effect of elevated greenhouse gas amounts

One other paper that I have not seen noted anywhere much on the internet or media.  A study noted at AGW Observer blog concludes this about the Australian recent drought:

In the context of the rainfall estimates introduced here, there is a 97.1% probability that the decadal rainfall anomaly recorded during the 1998–2008 ‘Big Dry’ is the worst experienced since the first European settlement of Australia.

That seems a pretty significant finding.

On the attribution issue generally, I still think that Michael Tobis' "black swan" argument is pretty convincing. 

Technology aiding stupidity (again)

'Pox Parties' in the Age of Facebook - NYTimes.com

So-called pox parties, where parents would arrange play dates with infected children, were practiced before the introduction of the varicella, or chickenpox, vaccine in 1995. Now some parents are turning to Facebook and other social media sites, using the Internet to facilitate the exposure of their children to chickenpox and other diseases like measles, mumps and rubella. The parents say they would rather their children acquire these diseases and develop natural immunity than run the risk of vaccine side effects.

On Facebook the groups go by names like “Chicken Pox Party Line” and “Find a Pox Party.” As one group notes on its Facebook page, “Consider this your ‘registry’ so that if any other members have an infected kid, you’ll be notified and have the option of setting up a pox playdate.”

Not only that, but licked lollipops have been offered for sale too:

The offer – for lollipops infected with chickenpox virus – appeared on Facebook last month and quickly circulated among parents who oppose vaccinating their children against diseases....

“I think it’s an incredibly bad idea, whether you’re getting it from a lollipop or somewhere else,” said Dr. Rafael Harpaz, a medical epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Chickenpox can cause severe disease and death. Before the vaccine was available, we were approaching 100 children who died every year in the United States. You’re basically playing a game of Russian roulette.”

This month, law enforcement officials began clamping down. Jerry E. Martin, the United States attorney in Nashville, where the tainted lollipops were advertised at $50 for overnight delivery, issued a warning last week that sending infected items “through the flow of commerce” was a federal crime, punishable by up to 20 years in jail.

Magnets and brains (again)

‘Magnets’ help stroke patients speak (Science Alert)

Research at the University of Queensland seems pretty advanced on the topic of magnetic brain stimulation:

Dr Caroline Barwood, who recently completed her PhD at UQ's School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, conducted the research and found significant improvement in the language skills of stroke patients after they underwent Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS).

TMS is a non-invasive method that seeks to target brain activity, with the intention to facilitate the reorganisation of brain regions with the purpose to alter language behaviours.

The treatment involves placing a coil on the head of the participant which uses electromagnetic induction to induce weak electric currents through a changing magnetic field.

Twelve patients who experienced strokes between one and six years prior to the study were recruited for participation and treated at the UQ Centre for Neurogenic Communication Disorders Research.

“Eighty percent of patients who were treated with TMS showed improvements in language skills, most notably in expressive language, which includes naming, repetition, and discourse. No language improvements were seen for those patients treated with placebo TMS,” Dr Barwood said.

This sounds consistent with a story from Italy I posted about last year concerning similar research from Italy, but with Alzheimers patients.er

There was also a story I am sure I blogged about on some research about (what I think was) similar stimulation for general learning improvement, but I am having trouble tracking that one down. I'll look again later.

Start waving goodbye to Dennis Moore

With Herman Cain staggering towards the exit door for wannabe Presidents (honestly, it gives me pleasure to read each morning of the latest stumbles of a Tea Party favourite,) the only downside I see is that no one will get to call him "America's own Dennis Moore" due to his pretty spectacularly regressive tax plan.

So let me take the opportunity to do so by posting the entire Dennis Moore saga from Youtube.  It's been a long, long time since I have seen this, and I had forgotten how good it was.  (About the only thing I had remembered was the Cain appropriate line which occurs at the 8.15 mark.)

Some matters to be dealt with

Back soon.

Old LA

LILEKS (James) :: The Bleat

James Lileks has been in Los Angeles and has an interesting post full of photos of the impressive looking, but now unused, grand cinemas of the past in the old centre of town. It is still a seedy sort of area, apparently, but at least the ornate, if slowly decaying, architecture is of interest.

Probably just too many drugs

Philip K. Dick's Exegesis: An Excerpt on Losing Touch With Reality

I'm not the world's biggest Philip K Dick fan: I have enjoyed maybe 5 novels, but started one or two others and found them un-engaging. I don't think he was that great at the short story, either.

I did like the VALIS trilogy, though, with its teasing sense of something important about the universe that might be being revealed if only all these threads could be pulled together. (They never were, really, from what I recall.) I also had read before that Dick had keep lots of notes about his quasi mystical experience that inspired the novels, and called it his Exegesis.

It seems someone has collected all this stuff together and published it, and there is a short extract in the Slate article linked above.

While it would be nice to think that Dick did genuinely have a strange, mystical experience with an other worldly intelligence, and perhaps was getting messages from the dead bishop, the extract still indicates what I decided long ago: no, it's almost certainly just a case of too many drugs.

Dangerous librarianship

Marie Curie: Why her papers are still radioactive - CSMonitor.com

Many library collections use special equipment, such as special gloves and climate-controlled rooms, to protect the archival materials from the visitor. For the Pierre and Marie Curie collection at France's Bibliotheque National, it's the other way around.

That's because after more than 100 years, much of Marie Curie's stuff – her papers, her furniture, even her cookbooks – are still radioactive. Those who wish to open the lead-lined boxes containing her manuscripts must do so in protective clothing, and only after signing a waiver of liability.

Huh.

Good news re fuel efficiency

BBC News - Plane makers switch to cleaner engines

Airbus and Boeing are in a dogfight (ha ha) over whose new engines are more efficient.

Of course, I would like to see superconducting electric engines some day.

Taking on Curry

The Real Problem with the Global Warming “Debate” | Open Mind

Tamino is really annoyed with Judith Curry's inaccurate claims which she then refuses to retract or justify.

She is not to be trusted.

I also see that there is something fairly bizarre going on at Curry's blog at the moment.  She gave a "guest post" to the authors of a couple of skeptic papers that appear (if my quick scan is right) to argue all 20th century warming is really just a natural fluctuation.   Richard Tol has ripped into Curry, saying these are bad papers and she is spreading "disinformation".   Curry has a long post arguing about what is "disinformation" and "pseudo critical thinking" and then gives Tol a guest post in which he shows why the papers are bad.  She seems to be claiming that she just put the papers up for discussion, and people shouldn't assume that she thinks they are good papers.

Her credibility would take a hit over this, if it weren't for the fact that it's long only been the slightly less rabid escapees from Watts Up With That who think she makes sense in her rambling attempt to cast herself as some sort of "middle man" of reasonable skepticism. 

You say hello, and I say goodbye...

As few people seem to visit the sister site for advanced immaturity, I'll replicate it's visual commentary on Herman Cain:

Yes, how sad.  A man with no actual political experience who had a tax plan that benefited the rich at this time of increasing concern about wealth and income disparity in his country, made really ignorant sounding and simplistic statements about how to conduct foreign policy, was denying the significance of the biggest long term environmental issue ever, and made very ostentatious displays of the significance of his faith, has come to grief over women (and men) saying he has a history of conducting himself inappropriately around women. 

Yes, everyone knows Democrats have got away with much worse in their private lives, but everyone should also know that if you're going to run with being a really seriously religious guy, and sing Gospel spirituals at the drop of a hat, a pattern of sleazy conduct in the past is likely to bite you hard.   Unless, I guess, you're going to play the role of the repentant sinner; but Herman is not having any of that.

The fact that he thought these would not come back to hurt him just shows his poor judgement.  But as I say, it's not as if that wasn't already obvious from his actual policy positions.   That Tea Partiers were smitten with him just shows what a hopeless bunch they are.