Cuckoo

Daddy dearest: Many men are finding out they are not the father after all

The paternity testing industry is finding itself much more popular:

Almost a quarter of paternity tests conducted by one of Australia's largest DNA laboratory companies show the man submitting a sample is not the father, compared to an estimated one in 10 "exclusions" 10 years ago.

The number of tests taken in Australia has doubled from 3000 in 2003 to more than 6000 last year.

As a result, at least one men's rights groups is suggesting compulsory paternity testing at birth. Just how many surprises this would reveal seems pretty unclear:

Some experts say the proportion of negative paternity tests reflects the fact that the men coming forward already have reasonable doubts, and that of the entire population, only 1 per cent of fathers are not the "real" parent.

The men's rights group are opposed by feminists who see this just as men seeking to punish their unfaithful partners. But the men's rights argument has this very plausible strand:

"People's lives are being ruined by this. It is not just the men, it's the children who grow up thinking one person is their father and then find out it's someone else.

"In the future, more and more health treatments are going to be based on genetic technology, so it is going to be even more important to know who your biological father is.

"Mandatory testing would get rid of all these problems."

Indeed, it seems the modern push to allow for re-union with fathers for those conceived with anonymous donor sperm has often cited the importance of a child being able to know their genetic inheritance.

The other thing to consider is that testing may mean that for every purported father happy with the result, there is likely to be a previously undisclosed father who is unhappy. Feminists can't really argue then that the men as a group are going to the winners of compulsory testing.

Of course, there would be some cases where a father accepts that a baby may not be his and his happy to treat it as his own anyway.

How about a compromise system then: compulsory testing unless both of the parents sign forms confirming they do not want it. By doing so, the father would accept financial responsibility for the child forever, regardless of whether later testing reveals he is not the father. The later testing would be available for the child's benefit in the event of separation.

In fact, in a post last year I had nearly forgotten about, I had suggested compulsory paternity testing at separation of the parents. This has some good arguments going for it too.

But if the priority is going to switch to children having a right to know their true genetic inheritance, then switching the system to one of testing at birth would be more important.

Every UFO should have one

Technology Review: Stopping Cars with Radiation

Anyone familiar with the history of UFO's (or even those who recall a key scene in Close Encounters,) will probably think of the possible flying saucer connection when they first see this story:

Researchers at Eureka Aerospace are turning a fictional concept from the movie 2 Fast 2 Furious into reality: they're creating an electromagnetic system that can quickly bring a vehicle to a stop. The system, which can be attached to an automobile or aircraft carrier, sends out pulses of microwave radiation to disable the microprocessors that control the central engine functions in a car. Such a device could be used by law enforcement to stop fleeing and noncooperative vehicles at security checkpoints, or as perimeter protection for military bases, communication centers, and oil platforms in the open seas.

The system has been tested on a variety of stationary vehicles and could be ready for deployment in automobiles within 18 months...

Unfortunately, though, it is not believed to be the ready explanation for UFO car stalling stories from the 1960's:

The radiated microwave energy will upset or damage the vehicle's electronic systems, particularly the microprocessors that control important engine functions, such as the ignition control, the fuel injector, and the fuel-pump control. However, electronic control modules were not built into most cars until 1972, hence the system will not work on automobiles made before that year.

As this article shows, car interference cases really kicked off in the 1950's, and in fact my strong impression is that such reports have become much less frequent since the late 70's despite Close Encounters' popularity. (Clearly, though, that movie may have been very influential at the subconscious level with respect to the popularity of alien abduction claims in the 1980's.)

The Condon Report notes that lab tests were done in the 60's to see if a strong magnetic field could stall a car, and the results indicated this was not a plausible explanation. However, whether tests were ever done on the effects of strong microwaves on the cars of the day is something I don't know. Maybe everyone is assuming it will only work on microprocessors in modern cars, but are we sure?

It will be the youngster's fault

Rudd's youth appeal trumps PM | The Australian

There's a lot of talk in The Australian this morning about how Kevin Rudd's appeal to the under 35's will be the main source of his likely triumph.

Yes, the demographic that values idealism more than practical results on the ground, and does not (for the most part) yet have children at school, or mortgages, is about to hand government to Kevin Rudd.

Oh well, you have to let youngsters learn by experience, I suppose, even if we know it will all end in tears.

What is going on at McDonald's?

I've noticed something at McDonald's. While I think they used to actually cook frozen hamburger on a grill, now in the cooking area all I can see is a sort of oven-like device full of slide in trays. It seems hamburger patties are being cooked or re-heated in this thing now.

As I suspect it is no more than a "warming" device, does this mean that the hamburger meat is now pre-cooked before it gets to the store?

Just curious. I can't say I have noticed a significant difference in quality of the hamburgers.

I admire the company for its re-branding as a healthier food outlet, as well as the much more attractive and "adult" look of many of their stores.

The new (possible) TOE

McCabism: An exceptionally simple theory of everything

Gordon McCabe clears up the situation with this new (yet to be tested, but possibly promising) theory of everything:

The diagram here represents the 240 roots of the Lie algebra of E8, each of which purportedly define a possible type of elementary particle. Every Lie algebra has a maximal commuting subalgebra, called the Cartan subalgebra. In each representation of a Lie algebra, the simultaneous eigenvectors of the elements from the Cartan subalgebra are called the weight vectors of the representation, and their simultaneous eigenvalues are called the weights of the representation. In the special case of the adjoint representation, (a representation of a Lie algebra upon itself), the weight vectors are called the root vectors, and the weights are called the roots. The roots uniquely determine a Lie algebra.

Err... yes, thanks Gordon for helping make that clear for the rest of us. (Or how about just telling us if it has any surprises regarding possible explanations for dark energy, dark matter, and the fate of the universe.)

UPDATE: if you want to see a physics blog where it is discussed in great detail, try this. Still hard (no, impossible) to fathom, of course.

UPDATE 2: hey, this is more like it. Go here and watch a lovely animation that gives a bit of a clearer overview as to what it is all about. It looks so pretty, I certainly hope it's true.

Three odd stories concerning women

1. Menstrual blood could be rich source of stem cells - New Scientist

Menstrual blood: it's not far behind paedophilia and child murder in the ranks of topics about which it is absolutely impossible to come up with any comment that could plausibly be called "witty". So, moving right along:

2. Apparently, some Australian women breastfeed their kids up to age 7. Very, very few I gather, but some. Mind you, I heard a caller to talkback radio today say that as a student teacher, she had seen women attend school for the purpose of breastfeeding their kid in grade 1! (She also claimed some women protracted breastfeeding as a tactic to help defeat an estranged husband's custody or visitation rights!) Can this be true? She sounded sane, but I have just never heard anything like this.

3. They are working on a new design for a female condom. The first version never caught on. This is how they plan to improve it:

The old design hung passively from the rubber ring, which could shift around and sometimes hurt; the new design has dots of adhesive foam that adhere to the vaginal walls, expanding with them during arousal.

Err, somehow I just can't imagine that the idea of having such a device stuck in place with adhesive foam is ever going to be an easy sell to women. In fact, I reckon the developers may as well just give up now.

More equity coming my way?

Room for prices to rise in Brisbane, Melbourne

The general manager of Australian Property Monitors, Michael McNamara, says median house prices in several property markets have levelled off in the $500,000 to $550,000 band.

A pattern seems to be emerging: when a city's median home price reaches about half-a-million it stays there.

"The cities with a median price up over the $500,000 mark just don't seem to have any more fuel left in the tank; they seem to be stagnating," McNamara says. He thinks that communities in the country's two most expensive property markets, Sydney and Perth, are approaching "peak debt".

The article says that Brisbane and Melbourne haven't reached that median price yet, but doesn't say what the median is for Brisbane.

But this article seems to give the answer:

According to APM’s analysis, Brisbane median house price lifted 2.4 per cent over the September quarter to reach $399,755. That worked out to an extremely solid 16.7 per cent rise for the year.

And further down:

Mr Matusik said the predicted November interest rate could put a serious dampener on housing demand in the River City.

“With an increase in supply and higher interest rates our modelling is that price rises will be slow in Brisbane at somewhere between 6 and 8 per cent growth in the next 12 months,” he said.

“But looking beyond that an acceleration of price growth is likely because of the lack of new stock.”

Hmm. Soon I will be able to borrow for a 42 inch LCD TV in every room. (Plasmas seem to be a bit passe now.)

Something I bet you didn't know

I spy no temples in Kyoto | The Japan Times Online

This story in the travel section of the Japan Times is pretty fascinating:

Maizuru is more than another beautiful seaside town; it's home to the closest Japanese Navy base to North Korea. There's a slight film-noir feel to this place. Until about seven years ago, the police box in front of Higashi Maizuru Station had a poster up asking people to report sightings of strange men in rubber rafts landing on the beach in the dead of night.... Even today, fisherman occasionally report seeing strange lights along the beaches or boats without lights at night running into the many coves around Maizuru harbor.

That's a part of Japan where they probably really take locking the front door seriously, for fear of ending up in North Korea.

But the main historical thing I didn't realise, and which I bet few Westerners know too, is this:

During World War II, about 570,000 Japanese soldiers were sent to the Soviet Union, of whom about 472,000 ended up in Siberian POW camps by the end of the war. Getting the soldiers back home would prove to be a lengthy undertaking.

The first repatriation ship arrived in Maizuru on Oct. 7, 1945, just two months after Japan's surrender, and the last one docked on Sept. 7, 1958. After 1950, Maizuru become the only port in Japan to receive repatriated soldiers, many of whom were physically and spiritually broken. Between 1945 and 1958, more than 664,000 soldiers who had been stranded in the Soviet Union and China, including most of the POWs in Siberia, arrived home via Maizuru.

It took 13 years for all the POWs to be returned from Siberia! What were Russia and China doing: trying to age all the soldiers out of fighting again? Fascinating.

Anything would be better than these

The last couple of evenings I happened to see A Current Affair on Channel 9. During this last year, I have also seen snippets of Channel 7's competition, Today Tonight.

It is absolutely absurd that the competing 6.30 pm "current affairs" programs have taken to doing many stories devoted to criticising programs on their competing television networks. This week, for 2 nights in a row, A Current Affair devoted lengthy stories to criticism of Channel 7's "National Bingo Night," or whatever it is called. (It's not a "real" game of bingo, which is hardly surprising given that it is pre-recorded months ago.)

Of course, Channel 7 has gone into this too. Instead of taking ABC' s "The Chaser's" (usually spot on) satire in its stride and ignoring it, Today Tonight has run many stories with pretty ludicrously over-the-top criticism of The Chaser, purely as attempted revenge.

And when Today Tonight yesterday got an injunction against The Chaser running a sketch this week, not only did (apparently) Today Tonight itself devote time to the story, but A Current Affair also had a segment about how the other two shows were fighting!

This is unbelievably puerile, bitchy and just really pathetic television.

There is no saving 6.30 pm current affairs. It has been appalling for, I don't know, 20 years or so, yet amazingly it has found a way to reach even lower standards and be even more irrelevant, as well as profoundly demeaning to all who make it.

Politics, politics

Saw some of Kevin Rudd's campaign launch. He seemed badly unprepared for use of the autocue. When used well, you're not constantly aware of its presence. With Kevin, and the strange angles the autocue seemed to be at, it was clear that he was always reading off them. He is probably tonight punishing some media lackey for this fault.

As to content: nothing to get excited about. Seems to making rather a fetish of computers and students, which seems a little odd in a year when laptops have become so cheap you could pick up a decent enough second-hand one for primary kids for less than $300. (A new one for $700, and that should last a good few years.) Just how many families can't afford that?

On advertising: I haven't been seeing a lot of commercial TV recently, but I still have the impression that Labor seems to have a bottomless bucket of money for advertising this campaign. Liberal ads seems few and far between. If business doesn't like the outcome of the election, it only has itself to blame for what appears to be poor support of the Coalition in terms of donations.

UPDATE: Annabel Crabbe has a typically witty and accurate take on the policy launch.

News Limited headlines and coverage today are so upbeat, it seems they have jumped ship to Labor completely. The End of Certainty indeed, Paul Kelly.

If the next Newspoll is as bad as this week's, I don't know that there would be any downside for the Coalition to come out much more aggressively against Rudd personally. It has always seemed that his control freak and "say whatever it takes" nature irritates journalists, yet they are generally party to helping him maintain this. I thought John Laws' little anecdote on Enough Rope about Kevin was typical:

JOHN LAWS: Yes I’ll tell you I noticed it, I noticed it the other day and it, it intrigued me. I was going to do an interview with Kevin Rudd and I was going to pre-record it at half past seven in the morning because he was going to Perth in an aeroplane or something. I said “Is that you Kevin?” He said “Yes, eh John how are you?” And I said “Good, how are you? I bet you’re a bit a tired.” He said “Oh”, he said “tired, you know it’s hard work.” And I said “Well I imagine it is but the end result if you achieve it surely will be worth the effort?” He said “Oh yes,” he said “but sometimes, you know, just so damn hard.” And then he stopped and obviously one of his people said to him “That’s being recorded” and there was a hesitation and he came back to me and said “Are, are you, are you, are we recording?” And I said “Yeah.” He said “But I was just talking to you.” And I said “Well that’s the idea of the interview.”

JOHN LAWS: And he said “Well my people’d rather you didn’t play that.” Now he’d behaved in quite a normal pleasant fashion.

ANDREW DENTON: Mm.

JOHN LAWS: I mean, I know him, I’ve had lunch with him on more than one occasion and I know his wife, had lunch with her, so it’s not as if we’re not good acquaintances. But he was terrified that he should appear to be natural, which really surprised me. I would have thought it would have done him a tremendous amount of good to sound like just a nor-normal every day bloke. And then when I said “Alright, well if you want to do it, we’ll start it again,” he sounded like a totally different man.

Yeah, OK, you can hardly condemn Rudd for wanting to sound upbeat in an interview, and yes of course I know all politicians manipulate image; but if many journalists are leery of the controlling aspects of his character, as I am sure they are, it's fair enough for the public to be as well.

UPDATE 2: it may well be a case of "any port in a storm" when I start quoting Kenneth Davidson with approval, but he makes some decent points against Rudd's computer and broadband fetish this morning:

If Rudd Labor was serious about an education revolution it would be based on the latest survey of internet usage by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which showed that 76 per cent of households with children under the age of 15 already had access to the internet.

Why subsidise the majority of parents for spending already undertaken without subsidy? If Rudd Labor wanted to extend student access to the internet, and improve overall school retention rates, it would have focused its $2.6 billion on poor primary and secondary schools, poor areas with a low computer-pupil ratio and internet access, and provide the money necessary to provide access supervision outside school hours.

The reason why a targeted approach to funding based on needs wasn't considered is because it wasn't a vote buyer.

As Annabel Crabbe (and I) sad before, the big bonus for Dads across the nation will be that the high speed porn access they already have will be subsidised by Labor.

A silly election post...

It is a truth universally acknowledged that this has been a dull election campaign.

I would like to see more fire and passion on the Coalition side, at least. All this stage management ruins most of the spontaneity, save for the odd yell from a cranky passing shopper.

It makes me nostalgic for the public political rallies of the past. The problem is, the unions are so well organised against Workchoices, they would be bound to be a noisy out-numbering presence at any publicised Coalition rally.

My fantasy suggestion: unannounced city rooftop appearances with loudspeakers by John Howard and some of his ministers, just like The Beatles in "Let it Be". Of course, it has to be a building only a few stories up, and near a public mall or square. There must be suitable venues...

The mind image I have of this amuses me a lot.

Why aren't I in charge of a campaign?

Drugs and insight

And then I became a junkie ...

This is a lengthy extract of a book by an English comedian about his drug addled days. (I assume he is over it all now.)

There's nothing new here, I suppose, except that there is a kind of endless fascination with hearing about how completely and utterly stuffed up most drug addicts have to make their lives before they come to the realisation that they have to change.

Posting hiatus continues...sort of

Gosh, UFO's are in the news, Kevin Rudd has to slap down another high profile candidate, and rich school principals are weighing into politics in a really weird sort of way ("you bastards, what are you doing making it even minimally easier for students to come to our school?")

And I don't have time to do lengthy posts on these topics.

Just quickly: I didn't see election-themed Four Corners on Monday. The fact that Coalition supporter Harry Clarke liked it, and the virtually unhinged mob at Road to Surfdom hated it, would indicate that it may have been worth watching.

Surfdom has dropped off my regular reading list, as it has become the poisonous play pen for Ken L and his friends, but I dip the toe in occasionally. The comments about the Four Corners program are particularly amusing:

I mean dont we all know and have known for a long time that the ignorant masses are just that. Ignorant masses. That is why they have voted for Howard et al for the last 11 years. Just dont discover it now, be forever alert and alarmed.

Always with the generosity of spirit, those on the Left.

As for Nasking, always the most tired and emotional:

i feel exactly the same way Phill…& my health has gone down the gurgler since i started commenting on political blogs in 2004…tho the rot started in 1996 mentally ’cause i knew deep in my heart where Johnny boy & his cronies would take this Country…i watched the election w/ some bigoted Sth. African bast*rd who claims to be part of our extended family…he mocked & laughed his head off when Keating lost…i haven’t spoken to him since.

That night i felt the cold hand of the ‘bad karma’ spectre reach into my chest & clutch my ticker…& the breath of the same evil f*cker w/ the head of a grinning Howard penetrated my brain & called upon the ‘black dogs’ to assault it day & night. I swear i haven’t breathed easy or felt truly happy since.

Now there's a person who needs a break from commenting.

Busy, busy

The bunker building progresses well.

(Actually, work is just really busy, and attempts to contact the CIA are proving less fruitful than expected. No posts until later today/tomorrow.)

Political commentary of the day

Both Paul Sheehan's and Glenn Milne's commentaries today are worth reading.

Meanwhile, Newspoll probably confirms that last week wasn't great for Howard. (My feeling about the concentration on Howard's "sorry is not an apology" is that it a result of the distorting media filter that Milne talks about - in the sense that it was only a very small part of a long media engagement. I guess Latham could claim the same about that handshake, come to think of it.)

It's true that the Coalition has had trouble finding the overarching, pithy, punchy theme for its campaign: "Don't vote for a twerp" mustn't have passed muster at the focus groups. But given where they are in the polls, I'd give it a try if I were campaign manager. Labor has spent 10 years calling John Howard much worse.

I might need to restrict posting to evenings this week, if I can. During the day I will be learning how to use a backhoe to dig the underground bunker in the back yard where the family and I will live for the next three years after election night. Just to be safe, I'll also ready some pits for the spiked mantraps that may be helpful to keep the re-possessing banks and homeless, workless neighbours at bay. (If a vote 55% TPP happens, it'll be two terms of the Rudd at least, unless he's knifed in the back by a member of his own Cabinet. Are the betting agencies taking money on that yet?)

UPDATE: sorry, first version of this referred to Peter Hartcher's column instead of Paul Sheehan's. Been rectified.

The campaign launch: I saw some of it live on TV. Howard gave pretty good delivery, I thought, and his section on Labor's changing opinions was actually pretty sharp and witty.

As for the actual policies: the home ownership savings accounts - will be accused of "me-too-ism", but maybe is the best that could be done in the circumstances. The removal of CGT on homes co-owned by parents and kids struck me as more significant, and well worthwhile.

The other policies: I am waiting to read more detail about them.

Colebatch on interest rates

Will Rudd cut inflation? - Federal Election 2007 News - FederalElection2007

Good to see someone in The Age confirming that Kevin Rudd is really selling a crock when it comes to interest rates. In fact, by Rudd going on about Howard needing to "take responsibility" for higher interest rates, isn't he setting himself up for the same criticism being used against him in 3 years time?

Mark Latham thinks that blaming a "skills crisis" for current interest rates is also "overblown", just as I had suspected. (Although it is a little disturbing to find oneself agreeing with him about anything.)

Don't diss deodorant

Cast Aside Underarm Protection, if You Dare - New York Times

This article argues that deodorants are now overused. Most people, it suggests, probably barely need it at all if they wash once or twice a day.

A lot must depend on the particular bacterial flora that inhabit your body. My father never used deodorant a day in his life, laboured in the summer humidity of Southeast Queensland for a living, and never smelt at all. Sadly, such mysterious immunity from body odour never extended to the rest of the family.

The New York Time article notes that:

Gabrielle Glaser, the author of “The Nose: A Profile of Sex, Beauty, and Survival,” argues that the phenomenon [ a "fear of dampness and smell"] started in the early 1900s when marketers urged immigrants to eliminate their body odor to become more American.

“If you were new to the country, you wanted to do whatever you could to not offend,” said Ms. Glaser, a former contributor to The New York Times. “During the Depression, the marketing encouraged people to think that they could lessen their anxiety about losing their jobs by making sure that they didn’t stink.

He makes it sound like it was a pure cynical marketing ploy, but who could dispute that reeking of BO might have been a disincentive for employing an immigrant?

Then there is the argument that comes close to suggesting deodorant use is the cause of increased divorce:

“There is experimental evidence in humans to suggest that we may have some mating preference for those who have a different immune system then we do,” Dr. Preti said. “The scent caused by underarm bacteria is part of what signals a different immune system.....From a biological standpoint, deodorants are overused because they can make people seem more attractive than their basic biology.”

Well, sounds vaguely plausible, but most people would take the higher risk of a mating mismatch over sitting next to someone who reeks on the bus.

Emotional Lego

Microtrends: Brickfilms - Times Online

These original Lego films are pretty good.

Trouble

US fears Israeli strike against Iran over latest nuclear claim - Times Online

This seems to be attracting little attention in the Australian media.

Global warming news

Cirrus clouds might not be playing the positive feedback role in global warming that most scientists assumed. (Less of them around may mean a welcome negative feedback.) Possible good news gets the smallest of media attention, though.

Meanwhile, Planktos wants to try more ocean iron fertilization, but are getting threats from environmentalists and criticism from many others.

I don't know, seems to me to be rather hypocritical to be both in a panic about global warming and also oppose full assessment of possible alleviation measures.