A long term reason for optimism?

Findings - Use Energy, Get Rich and Save the Planet - NYTimes.com

John Tierney will cop a lot of flack for running these predictions:

1. There will be no green revolution in energy or anything else. No leader or law or treaty will radically change the energy sources for people and industries in the United States or other countries. No recession or depression will make a lasting change in consumers’ passions to use energy, make money and buy new technology — and that, believe it or not, is good news, because...

2. The richer everyone gets, the greener the planet will be in the long run.

I don't doubt the point about the rich being greener than the poor. (It's also the assured way of containing population growth.)

But the problem is, will the attainment of average global wealth of sufficient size to "green" the planet take place fast enough to prevent a disastrous accumulation of CO2?

It has occurred to me before that it might just be possible that, regardless of (probably unsuccessful) attempts at effective CO2 limiting treaties, foreseeable (or even unforeseen) changes to energy technology might just mean that CO2 production is rapidly contained over the next 50 years anyway.

Of course, if James Hanson is right, that's far too late. But, if God is really smiling upon the planet, a milder version of the Maunder minimum might buy the nations enough time to prepare for a return to higher than normal temperatures. Of course, that's assuming that people could be persuaded during a mini ice age that global warming was still a threat - which is probably a big ask!

Also, a really severe mini-ice age is not likely to help, I guess, as it would be reason to not cut back on coal fired power generation in those countries undergoing bad winters.

Anyway, there's always ocean acidification to worry about regardless of temperatures.

The appeal of fighting witches

Two books about witches. - By Johann Hari - Slate Magazine

Interesting article here about why belief in witchcraft is still common in significant parts of the world.

The problem with India

India: the next climate obstacle? - Short Sharp Science - New Scientist

A New Scientist blog opines:

I would look to India for the next wall of resistance from developing nations. At negotiations, it is a forceful opponent to limiting emissions in developing nations. (Understandably so: the average Indian emits 1.2 metric tons of carbon each year, compared to 20.4 for the average US citizen.)

Indian negotiators have been known to flatly refuse to even discuss the matter of limiting emissions in developing nations during some negotiations because it was not explicitly on the agenda.

What Mahmoud left out

Ahmadinejad receives 'warm welcome' home after UN summit speech | World news | guardian.co.uk

Ahmadinejad omitted some remarks from the prepared text issued by Iranian diplomats in Geneva which described the Holocaust as "ambiguous and dubious".

The eventual response from Israel might be far from that description.

On trial for writing an opinion?

Obama remarks on torture memos leave open possibility of prosecution - Los Angeles Times

Like this makes sense:

Although President Obama opposes the prosecution of CIA operatives who carried out the most controversial interrogations of suspected terrorists during the Bush administration, Obama suggested today that he had not ruled out action against Justice Department officials who authorized the tactics....

Obama said that "with respect to those who formulated those legal decisions, I would say that that is going to be more of a decision for the attorney general within the parameters of various laws, and I don't want to prejudge that. I think that there are a host of very complicated issues involved there."

Update: further interesting details on this in The Guardian version of the story:

The White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, said only three days ago that the administration did not favour prosecutions of those who had devised the policy, and Gibbs echoed that on Monday.

Obama's about-turn may reflect the sense of outrage, at least among US liberals, over further details of CIA interrogations that have emerged during the last few days, including the use of waterboarding against one detainee 183 times. Or it could be purely political, a retaliation for sniping against him by Cheney.

In an interview with Fox News on Monday night, Cheney said he was disturbed by the release of the previously classified memos. He called for the declassification of other memos that he said would illustrate the value of intelligence gained from the interrogations.

"I know specifically of reports that I read, that I saw, that lay out what we learned through the interrogation process and what the consequences were for the country," he said.

Cheney has a point. Surely most people are surprised by the number of times some detainees were waterboarded. Unless you believe that individual CIA operatives just started doing it for fun (a wildly improbably assumption, given the amount of paperwork that appears to surround these cases), they clearly must have been under the impression that something was to be gained (or was being gained) in the process.

Of course, one of the common arguments against torture is that it does not produce reliable information in any event. But is that necessarily true? The CIA and intelligence services of all countries have a lot of experience in the field: do they like people to know how successful it can be?

There is probably a lot of information out there on the issue, but I don't have time to go looking for it now.

One other point I find curious about this whole matter is that, if the one of the interrogation "benefits" of waterboarding is that the victim thinks they are about to die, surely that aspect of it decreases over time if you've been subjected to it a dozen times and you still haven't died? Or does the psychological impact of it still increase over time, just out of fear of undergoing yet another round of an extremely unpleasant procedure?

Going back to Obama's flying the kite on Justice Department prosecutions, Powerline has this to say (and of course I agree):

The idea of prosecuting a lawyer because a wrote a legal analysis with which the current Attorney General disagrees is so outrageous that I can't believe it would be seriously considered.

UPDATE: some commentary on the issue of whether torture works.

I also tend to agree with Tigerhawk's take on this: if you have caught a terrorist who is prepared to kill thousands of civilians, it is surely helpful for him to at least believe that he is about to be tortured. Obama has effectively removed that fear, and that is not a good thing for the future security of his nation.

UPDATE 2: The New York Times reports that Obama's own intelligence director, Admiral Blair, supports the Dick Cheney position that important information was disclosed from waterboarding (or other techniques authorised by the Bush administration). I think we can assume Cheney was telling the truth.

Cats kill cute sea creatures

New research reveals extraordinary habits of rare Australian Snubfin dolphin

According to this article, research on the funny looking snub nosed dolphin (that lives off Queensland) shows that they can be killed by toxoplasma containing cat poop:

The concern for the snubfin dolphin follows the death of three Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins recovered around Townsville in the period 2000-2001 that were infected by Toxoplasma gondii - a parasite usually found in cat faeces that appears to have come from contaminated run-off.

In California, they have long believed that cat poo is killing sea otters.

Cat owners have a lot to answer for.

Oceans and Plimer

Most Australian readers would probably know already of the global warming skeptics excitement about a new hefty book by geologist Ian Plimer that (apparently) sets out with lots of footnotes his opinion as to why the great majority of climate scientists are wrong.

While we are waiting for some climate scientist types to review it in detail, I am curious as to whether he makes any attempt at addressing ocean acidification. As remarked here many times, this is an issue skeptics just like to wave away with a few dismissive snorts, and that's about the extent of their analysis. (Yes, I am aware of Plimer's previous short contributions to the issue, such as this one noted last year at Marohasy's blog. Anyone who has bothered to read about the issue can readily spot that this was a disingenuous attempt at dismissing it, and does not address the reasons why it is believed to be a serious problem regardless of the oceans surviving past periods of high atmospheric CO2.)

In fact, I haven't posted anything new about ocean acidification for a few weeks, but there have been quite a few papers of note, such as:

* some new calculations indicate that ocean "dead zones" will increase:

increases in carbon dioxide can make marine animals more susceptible to low concentrations of oxygen, and thus exacerbate the effects of low-oxygen "dead zones" in the ocean.

Brewer and Peltzer's calculations also show that the partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) in low-oxygen zones will rise much higher than previously thought. This could have significant consequences for marine life in these zones.

* (if I am reading this right) some lab tests indicate that phytoplankton in nutrient poor ocean areas (such as the Southern Oceans, which will be affected first by lower .pH) don't do well with increased CO2.

* A paper notes the wildly conflicting results of different lab tests on whether a certain type of phytoplankton will get heavier or lighter with more ocean acidification. However, even if they do in nature get heavier, they will not make a significant reduction in CO2 levels in the atmosphere:

...it should be recognized that the direct impact of calcification changes on atmospheric CO2 through the remainder of this century is relatively small compared to anticipated annual emissions as well as to other carbon cycle feedbacks.

(Hence, if AGW is true, you can't expect the carbon incorporating phytoplankton to save you.)

* more research indicating pteropods (which feed a lot of fish) don't do well with increased acidfication. The researchers note:

A decline of their populations would likely cause dramatic changes to the structure, function and services of polar ecosystems.

Not exactly cheery news.

Quantum fun

Avoid a future cataclysm: Forget the past - New Scientist

A quite bizarre but entertaining idea suggested by a physicist who has been thinking about "many worlds". The idea is hard to summarise here, and the article is short, but the ultimate point is this:

"If we could find a way to reset our knowledge of an impending disaster, we too could avoid it."

Would large amounts of alcohol do the trick? (Maybe it explains the remarkable ability of some drunks to take a tumble and get back up again.)

4WD heresy

Bligh backs drop in Fraser Island speed limit - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

On the weekend, there was yet another four wheel drive accident on the beach at Fraser Island. This has prompted the government to finally say that letting people drive on a beach at 100 km might just be a little too dangerous. Well, duh, as they say.

But: why the hell do we let the great sandy islands of South East Queensland have their beach serenity spoilt by 4WD's at all? I don't particularly care if inland sand roads are used to access beach-side camp sites, but to my mind Moreton Island and Fraser Island beaches have a large amount of their wilderness value spoilt by the never-ending flow of 4WD up and down their beaches. If you are camping with young children, there is always the worry that it is not particularly safe for them to be going between campsite and the water's edge, because they are literally wandering on a "road".

To my mind, this has been an incremental problem. In the early 1970's, when I first went to Moreton Island, not that many people had 4WD's, and it really did feel a pretty isolated spot. Now that every man and his dog has been able to buy one (mainly for the wife's school run and supermarket shopping, mind you) they spoil quite a lot of the pleasure of being there.

No one says this, of course, and tourism operators on Fraser would be up in arms at the suggestion. But if I ruled the country, there would be a ban on beach driving for nearly everyone; and for non rural areas, 4WDs would be taxed within an inch of their saleability anyway.

System failure

Mentally ill man raped, murdered daughter after warnings ignored | The Courier-Mail

A spectacularly tragic failure of the system to do any effective in the light of clear danger is detailed today:

THE state's largest hospital was warned, so were police and a doctor, but no one stopped a mentally ill man from taking a family holiday which ended with him raping and killing his 10-year-old daughter.

The man headed off on the fateful Bribie Island holiday with his four children after he was allowed to postpone a check-up with health authorities....

The Courier-Mail revealed in the days after the killing that the man had been released from the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital's mental health unit, where he had been under an involuntary treatment order, on December 21, 2007.

He had been admitted on December 8 after a manic episode in a shopping centre.

The man was allowed to postponea check-up with mental health workers scheduled for December 31. Late that night he ritualistically killed his daughter but spared her three younger siblings...

On December 30, the man's parents were so concerned about their son's behaviour, including a threat that "someone close to me is going to die tonight", that they contacted his GP...

On December 31, the RBWH was contacted by a former girlfriend of the man after he had gone to her home. The documents did not say whether the hospital took any action.

The man - who was found by the Mental Health Court to have been of unsound mind at the time of the murder - did not abide by the terms of his discharge. The judgment revealed he had stopped taking the antipsychotic drug, Risperidone, and resumed smoking large quantities of cannabis.

Um, just how many patients who are supposed to be taking anti-psychotics are allowed by anyone to supervise their children alone? I would have thought that this fact alone would have been reason for action.

Peter Kennedy has left the building

With a bit of TLC, priest's exile begins | The Australian

While I was down the coast, Peter Kennedy and his followers took the short walk down the road from Saint Mary's church to their new (temporary?) HQ at the Trades and Labor Council. Yes, it's like organised labor having it's very own church now. How cute.

Although Kennedy was looking all chipper on the TV news, I don't know that this reported comment should really give his congregation much encouragement:

"Our story, as it unfolds, will not change the church, nor will it change the world," Father Kennedy said. "But it is a political act which may give hope to those who feel excluded by the rules and regulations, the doctrines and dogmas, of the institutional church."

For a quite sarcastic take on events, have a read of this post at Coo-ee's Priory, (and this one) which note that Peter Kennedy may be over-estimating media interest in his private church now that the expected physical confrontation is (presumably) not going to happen:

"We are liberated now to speak out about the church. The media will come to us for our opinion from now on."

Yeah, we'll see how long that lasts.

Weekend away

We went down to the Gold Coast on the weekend, where I took this typical photo:



The weather was pretty good, and autumn (or spring) are the best times to be on the beach in South East Queensland: you don't have quite the same worry about frying your skin within 10 minutes, and once your feet get used to it, the water is warm.

It seems that the Gold Coast is suffering from the GFC to some degree: there were a few noticeable closed restaurants and such around. Price-wise, it's also probably a good time to be looking at buying a holiday unit there, as I suspect that is the type of real estate that investors are currently having to sell in a hurry. (Yes, have a look at this search at realestate.com to see what you can buy at Broadbeach for under $300,000. Someone send me $250,000 in Paypal and I'll let you stay in my apartment for 4 weeks a year in perpetuity!)

Hold this space

Missing me? No, I thought not. In any case, there's stuff to post about, but no time 'til tonight.

Cheap real estate soon in Japan?

Japan birthrate fall world's No. 1 | The Japan Times Online

The productive population, or those aged 15 to 64, is expected to decline from 81.64 million in 2009 to 45.95 million in 2055.

A science fiction image

This video of a pair of lungs being kept "breathing" while awaiting transplant reminded me of one of Larry Niven's novels, "A Gift from Earth". More details of the point of the exercise are at Next Big Future.

Doesn't work for Madonna

Can We Reverse Aging By Changing How We Think?

Don't overlook refrigerators

Energy Secretary Steven Chu on Global Warming | Newsweek

Nothing terribly new in this interview with Steven Chu, except I hadn't heard of this before:

We now make refrigerators that are four times more energy-efficient than the refrigerators of 1975—for half the inflation-adjusted cost. The energy we save with these refrigerators is more than all of the wind and solar photovoltaic energy we produce in the United States today. Just refrigerators.

Chu claims a lot is achievable in energy efficient buildings:

..we haven't taken full advantage of the technologies that exist today. They haven't been integrated into making smarter buildings that can be 60, 80 percent more energy-efficient than existing buildings.

He says buildings use 40% of US energy. Sounds surprisingly high.

Hunger inspired post

My wife made very nice pizza last night, using the following:

bottle pizza sauce, pieces of fresh tomato, semi-dried capsicum, olives, anchovies, basil leaves, mozzarella, and (special ingredient) bits of old washed rind cheese well past its used by date.

Provided stinky cheese has not developed its own microbiological civilisation, small amounts of it on pizza are delicious.

[End of transmission to your subconscious.]

I wonder what my brain is up to now

Unconscious thought precedes conscious | Incognito | The Economist

Interesting article here on new research which suggests the brain solves problems by itself well before you are aware of it.

As the report notes, it's further extension of Libet's old research from the 1980's, that caused a philosophical stir at the time.

In some ways, I guess, the idea that the brain can work on a problem subconsciously is not uncomfortable. In fact, it's kind of handy to have a computer working in the background on an issue.

But on the other hand, the research does raise the issue of how much you really are "in control". Taken to an extreme, it encourages the idea that we are just automatons who simply live under the impression of having control. Hard to deal with the moral concept of responsibility for actions if that were true.

People had better still believe that there is still a bit of a mystery about consciousness, and that right action can be willed, otherwise the fate of humanity will be bleak indeed.

Everyone needs a hobby

Such as, sitting in a Japanese park dressed as a Nazi.