South East Queensland and rainfall intensity: so this is what global warming looks like?

Rainfall statistics can be analysed any number of ways, and it seems to me that intensity of rainfall is one of the things that has become very important but is being investigated a bit too slowly. 

My strong, strong hunch is, however, that at least South East Queensland (if not other parts of the country) is now clearly undergoing the type of intensification of rainfall that was always expected under global warming and is suffering badly for it.  

Last Friday's rainfall was deadly, remarkable, and unseasonal across most of the South East, but particularly just to the north of Brisbane.   It reminded me of the intensity of rainfall that led to the Lockyer Valley disasters in the 2011 floods - where all forms of normal drainage (and Brisbane's drainage is built to sub-tropical standards) is so overwhelmed  that the flood is disastrously out of the norm in terms of suddenness of onset.    

But I'm not sure whether we are getting a good analysis of this in a timely fashion.

See, while it's interesting that a daily rainfall total might be a record for the time of year, I don't know that this captures the importance of the hourly intensity of rainfall adequately.

There may well be some academic papers on this around the place, but if so, it seems to me it is not attracting adequate publicity via the Bureau of Meteorology.  (Although I think the public knows something is going on.)

Alternatively, I could be wrong and the intensity is not out of the norm in historic terms.   I very much doubt that is the case, however. 

Update:  my point was alluded to in this article in The Conversation (my bold):

The problem is: “How can we estimate the frequency of rare extreme events from observations, or events that we are yet to witness, such as a 1-in-500-year event?” To solve this problem we need to model the data and use it to extrapolate outside our observations.

When we’re talking about flash floods and extreme rainfall, we want to know the highest rainfall in a single day or in a few hours, rather than total rainfall over longer periods such as a month or year. The best long-term rainfall observations are for daily rainfall.

1930's naughtiness update

Last week, on a whim, I was using Trove to find early Australian newspaper references to nudism, and turned up a series of stories from 1929 and into the 30's indicating the interest the topic attracted in Australia and the US.  

Today I Googled to see if a Pope had ever weighed in on the matter, and indeed, a 1930's Pope (Pius XI) did*:

 

That lecture seems a little late - the newspaper clippings I had in my previous post show that in 1932 and 1933 (the latter after Hitler had taken power) Germany was already banning the "cult of nudity".

But more interesting was an extract I found from an article about the future Pius XII, the wartime Pope, before he took on the top job:

In 1926, Pacelli was Vatican ambassador, or nuncio, to Germany, and he alerted Rome to the “moral perils” confronting Catholics in the freedoms of Weimar democracy. “Perhaps the thorniest problem for religious life and pastoral care,” he wrote, was Germans’ propensity to use contraceptives and have abortions. He railed against the “perverse propaganda of nudism,” and against the Tango, which was “of very evil origin.” “Any gymnastics wear for girls,” he continued, “that proactively accentuates their shapes or that is inappropriate for the female character must be avoided.”

Germany had just experienced the greatest cataclysm since the seventeenth century, and Berlin was a place where impoverished shopkeepers queued at soup kitchens while disfigured veterans asked for handouts on street corners. Working class families lived six to a room. But what bothered Pacelli were girls’ gym clothes. Pleasure and license posed a danger to eternal salvation, but poverty did not.

I didn't realise the concern with which the Tango was held in the early 20th century.  

And here we are, nearly a century later, we have a Pope who used to dance it, and still holds in fond regard:

In an interview published three years ago, the then Cardinal Bergoglio said of the tango, ‘I like it a lot. It’s something that comes from within me.’ He showed great knowledge of the tango’s history and of its most famous performers, especially mentioning Ada Falcón, an Argentine tango singer and actress of great wealth and celebrity who, 60 years before her death in 2002, suddenly gave up a life of luxury and romantic turbulence to live in seclusion in Buenos Aires.

Times change...

* from "Naked:  A Cultural History of American Nudism", which seems to have just been published this year.

What is it about the eyes?

Through This Chemical Loop, Dogs Win Our Hearts – Phenomena: Not Exactly Rocket Science

Well, given our dog's death last weekend, it seems apt to post about this recent story, which reported both humans and dogs getting an oxytocin boost from even just looking at each other.

This puts me in mind of the "how to fall in love" story from earlier this year - which ends with silent staring into each other's eyes.

I'm finding it rather odd that it is eye gazing in particular which seems to have powerful binding effects.  

Peak superhero?

Hmmm.   Of course, I've been hoping for this for years, and with the amount of money they make, there is really no reason for optimism.   But - with Avengers: Age of Ultron getting a relatively modest 73% on Rottentomatoes, I at least get the feeling that critically, we may have reached, and passed Peak Superhero.

The common theme amongst those critics who are underwhelmed is that the climatic, city wide destruction fights are all looking very same-y these days.   How true. (Well, I think, since I only get to view them in bits in pieces when they show up on free to air TV a few years later.)

Anthony Lane writes one of the wittiest reviews of the movie, with sections like this:

The story begins with a fight in a forest and ends with a fight in a city that floats in midair. In between, there is a fight in a castle, a fight on a freeway, and a fight in the wake of a cocktail party. The loudest fight is a tussle between Iron Man and the Hulk, which is part of a cunning scheme to rip the Avengers apart. Bring it on, I say. It has something to do with dreams, which are triggered by a blast of hypno-magic from the Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen), a new player in the game; each hero is disabled by harsh visions, tailored to touch upon his or her worst fears. I vaguely hoped that Thor would find himself holding hands with Hello Kitty, but no joy.

The experience of watching “Avengers: Age of Ultron”—which is not just long but, in Iron Man’s words, “Eugene O’Neill long”—runs as follows. First, you try to understand what the hell is going on. Then you slowly realize that you will never understand what is going on. And, last, you wind up with the distinct impression that, if there was anything to understand, it wasn’t worth the sweat.

By the way, showing that he's not just a humourist, Anthony Lane writes well about Gallipoli in another piece inspired by ANZAC Day (and the movie "The Water Diviner".) 

Gerard backed a loser

Dissembling with graphs: Murry Salby edition | Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology

Further to my suggestion that Gerard Henderson retire, remember that it was his Sydney Institute which first gave a public airing of Murry Salby's late life crisis in which he had decided that CO2 had virtually nothing to do with increasing global warming in the 20th century.

Of course, most in Gerard's audience couldn't really follow what Salby was arguing; those who read climate blogs saw that all other scientists immediately recognised that his argument made no sense at all. He lost his Australian job before it had really started, over some dispute or other about its terms. I see that Salby didn't even make into the IPA's latest bit of effort to promote crap about climate change. 

Anyhow, just in case anyone thought he was a misunderstood genius, have a look at the post above for some stunning examples of deceptive material he now presents at talks that he is apparently still giving. Amazing.

A fast food and diet observation

It seems years since I've eaten chicken pieces from KFC.  The occasional burger, yes.  But pieces of chicken, no.

But two nights this week, I've eaten cold KFC chicken.  (I got home late, that's all.)

I found it nicer than I remembered.  Much nicer.   Not very greasy, really.  Especially as it was cold.  I sometimes think I prefer cold chicken to hot.

It might also be partly because of being on a 5-2 diet.  It seems to heighten appreciation for the taste of food, even on a non fasting day.

Celebrating brain injury

I entirely concur with the bandanna clad one (Peter FitzSimons, if you didn't know), even though I rarely read anything he writes, in his article about boxing.

That is, once you know the intrinsically damaging nature of boxing as a sport, how can you intellectually consider it as a endeavour worthy of support? 

Chronic traumatic brain injury (CTBI) associated with boxing occurs in approximately 20% of professional boxers.

  The repeated head blows sustained by fighters during their battles link to slower cognitive processing speeds and smaller volumes of certain brain parts.

Not sure that I would ban it if I were Benevolent Ruler of the World.   Perhaps pay for an advertising  campaign designed to shame people out of supporting the sport, though.   Or put money into developing exoskeleton boxing.  (I have my doubts that people are ever going to get sufficient thrill out of watching boxing robots, like in that silly Real Steel movie.  Maybe if they build in blood bags ready to be splattered?)  But what if there's a human in a suit designed to prevent a head taking a full blow?   But why am I worried about satisfying the desire for biffo anyway?   It's all something to do with testosterone and evolutionary biology I suppose, and I feel I need to accept that in some fashion or other.  

OK, here's a compromise:  professional boxing allowed, but it's mandated by law that it has to end with a bonobo style, bonding-despite-the-fight-we-just-had, same-sex love in between the competitors before they leave the ring.

There, the problem of professional boxing solved.   (I'm sure Jason Soon will be impressed.)

Yet more lucid, convincing, Krugman

The austerity delusion | Paul Krugman | Business | The Guardian

Yet another good, long, read from Krugman on austerity, Keynesian and anti-Keynesian forces, and England in particular.    (The way The Guardian presents the article graphically is pretty neat too.)

I especially find this section pretty convincing, especially when you read the never ending defence of corporations and businesses (along the lines "how dare anyone accuse Google or Apple of not paying enough tax!") that comes from the IPA associated economists:

Beyond that lies a point made most strongly in the US by Mike Konczal of
the Roosevelt Institute: business interests dislike Keynesian economics
because it threatens their political bargaining power. Business leaders
love the idea that the health of the economy depends on confidence,
which in turn – or so they argue – requires making them happy. In the US
there were, until the recent takeoff in job growth, many speeches and
opinion pieces arguing that President Obama’s anti-business rhetoric –
which only existed in the right’s imagination, but never mind – was
holding back recovery. The message was clear: don’t criticise big
business, or the economy will suffer.

But this kind of argument loses its force if one acknowledges that job
creation can be achieved through deliberate policy, that deficit
spending, not buttering up business leaders, is the way to revive a
depressed economy. So business interests are strongly inclined to reject
standard macroeconomics and insist that boosting confidence – which is
to say, keeping them happy – is the only way to go.

Busy, back soon...

A pet's passing

In 2005 in the early days of this blog, I posted this photo of our sweet natured dog, Pochi:

She quite suddenly took ill on Thursday night and died peacefully at home this afternoon, aged close to 16.  The only pet our children have know (we got her before our eldest was born), her sudden departure is being keenly felt tonight...

A bit weird

Liquid mercury found under Mexican pyramid could lead to king's tomb | World news | The Guardian

Time to retire, Gerard

Gerard Henderson's weekly, self-indulgent bore sessions now appear (and not behind a paywall) at The Australian.  This week he gets to re-visit such compelling issues as an ABC Chairman 40 years ago writing a letter to the Sydney Morning Herald in which he defended the airing of a documentary program about pederasty.

Henderson interprets the letter as being a call for sympathetic understanding of pederasty, but it's a bit of culture war cherry picking if ever there was one, given how the letter goes on to refer to uncivilised behaviour.  How outrageous, says Gerard, that the current ABC Chairman refuses to apologise for this.  If it had been a Catholic Bishop who had done this, how different things would be.  (The implication - "everyone has to agree with how I read the letter.")

I think it's clear why Henderson raises this again this week:  it's one of the near routine, and pathetic, attempts at a counterattack you see from the Right wing culture warriors any week in which someone from the Churches has come out badly in the Royal Commission into Institutional Child Abuse.  In this case, a retired Catholic Bishop who apologises for taking 3 years to stop a pedophile priest from having contact with children, and then writing a character reference for him.   Rather more dire, by a magnitude or three, than an academic head of the national broadcaster saying a documentary about pederasty was not intended to offend.  

Gerard is scrapping the very bottom of the faux moral equivalence outrage barrel on this one.  He really ought to retire, it's becoming so embarrassing some of the lines he chooses to pursue.   

He also has a characteristic that Andrew Bolt and a host of other Right wing commentators now routinely display:   they don't just spend time trying to explain why a particular take on a matter is wrong; they devote a huge amount of effort to complaining about how people - the media, celebrities, academics - don't agree with them.

It's boring and tedious, and I mainly put it down to a "chip on the shoulder" that they have developed about not being able to convince scientists, academia and sufficient politicians that climate change is a non-issue.

For ANZAC Day

I see that the Queensland State Library has been putting up some ANZAC Day material for the 100th anniversary, including some good, short videos.  I liked this one:



Update:  there's also a remarkably good set of World War 1 photos (including some from Gallipoli) up at The Atlantic.

The only reservation I have about them is the way black and white photos tend to make the past look more distant that it really is...

Nudes from the Brisbane Courier 1933

Update:  Well, that put an end to the fun that Brisbane papers had been been following for a while.  From the Sunday Mail on 31 March 1929:

Why am I searching old Brisbane papers for reference to nudists?   Because I can....

Update 2:   this cable news report from America turned up in several Queensland papers around 24 August 1931:

Quite the moral panic...

Update 3:  whoever it was who was filing reports for the Australian Cable Service liked to keep the nation informed about the New York nudist threat.  On 14 December 1931:

Update 4:  Oh no!  By 16 December, the arrested indoor nudists had had a win:

Update 5:  Good Lord!  There were serious nudist outbreaks happening in Sydney, as reported on 1 January 1932:

Update 6:   By 16 August 1932, there were news reports which combined both Hitler's rise to power, and the German government crackdown on nudists and women wearing pajamas in restaurants.   (I'm not sure, but there's a fair chance that might be the only time Hitler and PJ's ever made it into the same news story.):

The evil sausage

In case you are a visitor who never scrolls down to see if I have updated a post, you should at least look at the latest update to my fermented meat post just a few posts back.  The religious history of the sausage gets a mention there...

Daly really wants super tax to bite

Labor’s superannuation tax policy needs more bite | Grattan Institute

John Daly, who impressed lots of people on Q&A recently, thinks the Labor changes to superannuation tax should be much, much tougher.  I'm scared for Judith Sloan's bold button if she gets to read this - it will be overworked to oblivion.

Francis not pleasing anyone?

Pope Francis is starting to look a lot like Sarah Palin or Kevin Rudd | Kristina Keneally | Comment is free | The Guardian

A bit tough, I think, Kristina...

Fermented meat and oxygen

I don't understand fermented meat products.  Like, how they were invented.

And although it's not fermented meat, I recently found that beef jerky has fairly low calories, and eating some with salad makes for a pretty satisfying lunch when on a "fast " day on the 5:2 diet.

I also realised recently that I didn't know much about how the International Space Station maintains a healthy atmosphere.  Some initial looking at websites indicates it's pretty complicated.  This also made me realise that I don't know if NASA has any good idea as to the system to use on a Mars mission.  Or, for that matter, if Mars One has any idea.   Electrolysis of water is a key part of the ISS system; I guess having a Mars base near ice would be very handy, then, for a permanent base.  Provided you can trust your equipment to never break down.

I need to do more reading...

Update:   a site with the grand name "SoyInfo Centre [World's Most Complete Collection of Soy Information]"  has a lengthy essay on the history of fermentation generally, with this somewhat interesting section:

The first solid evidence of the living nature of yeast appeared between 1837 and 1838 when three publications appeared by C. Cagniard de la Tour, T. Swann, and F. Kuetzing, each of whom independently concluded as a result of microscopic investigations that yeast was a living organism that reproduced by budding. The word "yeast," it should be noted, traces its origins back to the Sanskrit word meaning "boiling." It was perhaps because wine, beer, and bread were each basic foods in Europe, that most of the early studies on fermentation were done on yeasts, with which they were made. Soon bacteria were also discovered; the term was first used in English in the late 1840s, but it did not come into general use until the 1870s, and then largely in connection with the new germ theory of disease.

The view that fermentation was a process initiated by living organisms soon aroused fierce criticism from the finest chemists of the day, especially Justus von Liebig, J.J. Berzelius, and Friedrich Woehler. This view seemed to give new life to the waning mystical philosophy of vitalism, which they had worked so hard to defeat. Proponents of vitalism held that the functions of living organisms were due to a vital principal (life force, chi, ki, prana , etc.) distinct from physico-chemical forces, that the processes of life were not explicable by the laws of physics and chemistry alone, and that life was in some part self determining. As we shall soon see, the vitalists played a key role in debate on the nature of fermentation. A long battle ensued, and while it was gradually recognized that yeast was a living organism, its exact function in fermentations remained a matter of controversy. The chemists still maintained that fermentation was due to catalytic action or molecular vibrations.

The debate was finally brought to an end by the great French chemist Louis Pasteur (1822-1895) who, during the 1850s and 1860s, in a series of classic investigations, proved conclusively that fermentation was initiated by living organisms. In 1857 Pasteur showed that lactic acid fermentation is caused by living organisms. In 1860 he demonstrated that bacteria cause souring in milk, a process formerly thought to be merely a chemical change, and his work in identifying the role of microorganisms in food spoilage led to the process of pasteurization. In 1877, working to improve the French brewing industry, Pasteur published his famous paper on fermentation, Etudes sur la Biere , which was translated into English in 1879 as Studies on Fermentation . He defined fermentation (incorrectly) as "Life without air," but correctly showed specific types of microorganisms cause specific types of fermentations and specific end products. In 1877 the era of modern medical bacteriology began when Koch (a German physician; 1843-1910) and Pasteur showed that the anthrax bacillus caused the infectious disease anthrax. This epic discovery led in 1880 to Pasteur's general germ theory of infectious disease, which postulated for the first time that each such disease was caused by a specific microorganism. Koch also made the very significant discovery of a method for isolating microorganisms in pure culture.

Gee.  It's easy to forget how something so spectacularly important to 20th century improvements to longevity was only being worked out in the late 19th century.

But it still doesn't help with my fermented meat issue, in particular.

Update 2:   turns out European fermented sausage is not so old:

 From the 1995 book Fermented Meats.

Update the Third:   Tim, I know you have a particular interest in fermentation, and did a post on a book all about it.  Does it explain how fermented sausage making got started?  

Update 4:    Brilliant!  From Meat Fermentation at the Crossroads of Innovation and Tradition - A Historical Outlook:

 And I have learnt that there is a "Dry Salami Institute" (in San Francisco, of all places):

I also did not know of the Catholic controversy over sausages.   I'm guessing the phallic shape has something to do with it:

Lest we Forget [with apologies to the RSL...]

Today:

Slippery judicial slopes

The Democracy in America blog at The Economist has a post which is relatively sympathetic to the argument that the American voters should decide when they are ready for gay marriage, not the Supreme Court.  In it, they note the slippery slope argument for polygamy as follows:

The states' arguments taste of rather weak tea, but the line-drawing point should give pause to even the liberal justices. In framing their view as one of "marriage equality", and in urging a shift from procreation to state-recognised intimacy as the basis of marriage, the challengers of the state bans open themselves up to worries about where this all ends. We don't have to revert to Rick Santorum's ridiculous comparison of homosexuality to "man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be" to imagine polygamists pressing for their day in court were the justices to affirm a new constitutional right to same-sex marriage. There may be much better policy arguments for a ban on polygamy than for prohibitions on gay marriage (and there certainly are strong state interests in maintaining age-of-consent laws) so the worry is not that handing gays and lesbians this new right will destroy marriage as we know it. But the issue will come up, and the justices need to find a way to expand the boundaries of marriage without erasing them.