Population woes?

No one is willing to address the accelerating growth in the world's population | Comment | The Observer

This article appeared last week, but it's worth reading, including the comments.

The basic argument is that, even with low birth rates in the richer West, the UN predicts population increases to add perhaps another 2-3 billion to the planet by mid century. The writer thinks this a problem for controlling greenhouse gases. The first comment, however, makes this point:

World population was estimated at 2.5 billion in 1950. Between 2000 and 2050, the population is expected to triple in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, the Congos, East Timor, Guinea-Buissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger and Uganda.
However, half of the global increase of 2.5 billion to 2050 will be concentrated in these countries, ranked from most to least : India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, DR Congo, Uganda [ assuming HIV epidemic is ameliorated ], the USA, Ethopia and China.

The article conflates two differing problems : environmental impact and economic development/ social impact. The greatest environmental impact of world population will occur in China and America. The 13 countries I have listed which will have the most rapid population rises, are actually some of the world's poorest. Each inhabitant here has a minimal environmental impact with respect to CO2 etc. It is not clear whether any of the countries whose population is expected to triple by 2050 will actually be functioning, governable states because of the diminishing per capita resources.

Tim Worstoll points out that the IPPC and Stern have already taken into account possible increases in population.

It also appears from the comments that some population forecasts expect a rapid growth to 9 billion, but then a rapid decline due to the falling birthrates back to 6 billion or less by the end of the century.

Certainly, the already dramatically low birthrate is going to affect many countries well before 2050:

The detailed projections for individual countries show 33 countries with smaller populations in 2050 than today. Japan is expected to be 14 per cent smaller; Italy 22 per cent; and a slew of eastern European countries, including Russia and Ukraine, will see their populations crash by between 30 and 50 per cent.

Population dynamics are going to be weird over the next century.