It’s hard to disagree with this analysis. If Rudd had put as much effort into helping articulate government policies as he did in getting revenge on those who dumped him, it could have helped the polling. But it didn’t suit him to do so.* I have never, ever seen so much of the Right in Australian politics so ugly and dumb as it is at the moment. With a few moderates in the Liberals leaving at the election, this could possibly get worse.
Still, the biggest mystery is why Rudd is relatively popular with the public in the first place. It’s always been a puzzle to me, and it seems to be an unfortunate consequence of most voters only getting their news from the 6 pm TV bulletin that they did not have a clue that Rudd was replaced due to his own (hidden from the public) appalling management skills that many considered made him impossible to work with – not due to some vicious ambition of Julia Gillard to replace him at all cost. Those of us who had been paying attention to stories of the people he was offending (and who knew of his reputation in Queensland under Goss) were not surprised.
Having said that, I don’t want to see Abbott as PM – if anything, the Coalition is the side more in the need of an urgent clean out of ideologues who have been converted to the Tea Party obsessions regarding climate change and a hopelessly over-simplified view of economics. *
Funnily enough, last election I was pretty disappointed with much of Gillard’s campaigning – particularly her hopeless policy of seeking to put off carbon pricing until the silly idea that public meetings would converts dills who get their science from Andrew Bolt and Monckton had been tried. Hence I actually did not vote at all in the House of Reps, but voted towards Labor in the Senate. But then Gillard started to impress once she formed government and started implementing policies with more care (generally) than the haphazard approach of Rudd.
I suspect this time I will have to vote Labor in both houses of Parliament despite my great annoyance at the Rudd re-ascendency and the appalling way Gillard has been treated in the right wing media and blogosphere. I suppose it does depend on his “new” policy adjustments, though.
Friday, June 28, 2013
On the Rudd return
Harry Clarke has a personal dislike of Rudd that's probably even more intense than mine, but his post on the return of the bizarrely popular politician is pretty accurate. Rather me doing a fresh post, I'll just put here my comment that I made at his blog, with a couple of corrections:
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3 comments:
Still, the biggest mystery is why Rudd is relatively popular with the public in the first place.
To some extent that is confusing but remember that Rudd is not a party political animal and perhaps Aussies are sick of the way pollies kowtow to party interests. Gillard cares more about the party than the country.
Rudd presents himself as hopeful, his language conveys a sense of optimism. Abbott does almost the opposite, Gillard was more like a robot. Rudd smiles a lot, Gillard and Abbott don't and when they do it looks too contrived(unconsciously people pick up on this). That mean seem trite but the simple fact is people prefer an optimistic happy chap to a dour man proclaiming doom and gloom.
appalling management skills that many considered made him impossible to work with
As a friend of mine like to say: the real reason they didn't like Rudd is because is worked harder than all of them. He has been in parliament for yonks, his management skills cannot be that bad and obviously he is not "impossible" to work with. He wasn't thrown out by the electorate but by a pack of power merchants who realised they couldn't control him. Well he's the bloody leader, it is not for them to control him.
Having said that, I don’t want to see Abbott as PM
I like Tony Abbott as an individual but he lacks the ability to address serious issues without being dour and gloomy. The recent increase in his popularity was in comparison to Gillard, it was not intrinsic to him as a public person.
Where the coalition has a big problem is there constant support of big business. Australians like big business, as do I, we need it, but Australians are increasingly wary of anyone who wants to take sides with any special interest group. Post GFC people generally have become much more suspicious of the claims that what is good for big business is good for everyone. The coalition has not got this message. Big business can be good for everyone but that does not mean we should bow before them in unalloyed subservience.
"the simple fact is people prefer an optimistic happy chap to a dour man proclaiming doom and gloom."
That indicates problems for Christine Milne then: the Greens polling has gone off about 2 to 3% since the relatively cheery Bob left, and she is as dour a looking and sounding pollie as they come.
As for Rudd, I was being pretty generous in calling it just poor management style: I am inclined to believe he actually has a pretty major personality disorder based on many of the reports of his behaviour that came out during his term. (But his family seems very loyal to him - I am not sure how complete bastards to their underlings at work can be normal family members at home.) There was a long story in the Australian which I linked to at the blog which gave many examples soon after he was removed. I think it is still able to be read on line.
I assume that the person in the street tend to like his cheery wonkiness, but they simply don't know of the stories of terrible treatment of many of the public servants, and MPs, who have worked for him.
The Greens lost the plot long ago Steve and your right about Milne, she can't project herself properly and is all doom and gloom. I have some environmental concerns but the Greens just keep carrying on about AGW and have forgotten so many immediate problems we face.
The problem for Abbott is he will now lose a huge chunk of female support. I think the coalition are making a strategic error in trying to go after Rudd personally. Whatever fault's Rudd may have he is remarkably self-controlled and will not let the attacks make him stray from his strategy. If the coalition keep trying to demonise him they will play right into his hands. At elections you need to show why you have a better plan.
Rudd is clearly more eloquent than Abbott, he will outplay him in the public arena. The coalition has tied themselves to issues that will hurt them. Their love of Rinehart, a woman who couldn't even raise her children without them having contempt for her, the ranting about Carbon Tax induced price increases is now obviously a huge lie, their intention to go down the austerity route when the current data indicates to the average Joe and Jane that hasn't worked, their stupid Northern Australian utopian plan, and their intention to suspend anyone under 30 from dole payments if there is unskilled work available in their area(great way to win the young vote the morons). They have given Labor much ammunition but Gillard didn't know how to exploit that. Rudd does. Rudd probably won't stop the election loss but he will stop Labor being cast into the wilderness. However while certain people think the coalition is a walk in, I'm no longer sure that is true. It could be very close.
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