Election talk

Ben Eltham's summary of the last week in politics seemed pretty accurate to me. Insiders yesterday was great - George Megalogenis and David Marr versus Gerard Henderson.  Henderson claimed hypocrisy on the part of George - George promised to email him the articles where he did criticise Labor for late submission of policy costings in 2007.  I doubt he is making it up.  Will Henderson retract in his weekly column?

But on the issue of Coalition non costings, Peter Martin has an interesting take on it today, in which he notes that their tactic of getting three prominent, independent minded economist/bureaucrats is  surprising, given that part performance indicates they will have no reservations about criticising dubious costings.

As for my take on matters:  it seems elections are just won or lost on "the vibe" lately*.  I mean, the Howard government hadn't really done much to warrant a loss to Rudd - it was just the sense that Howard had hung on too long and run out of steam and ideas that led to a Labor victory  which was barely based on policy at all.

This time around, the reverse is happening.  "The vibe" is that minority government didn't work - which is pretty bizarre given the long term and beneficial changes to education, disability care and carbon pricing which it achieved.  The Coalition doesn't have to worry about making sense as far as to  how it will reduce a deficit which is very manageable - it's just "the vibe" that it must be reduced quickly and Tony will look after that.

And possibly the worst thing - the correction to the Australian dollar is likely to make very significant changes for the better for the Australian economy pretty soon.  On Inside Business yesterday, there was also some commentary that the global economic outlook is finally starting to look a little brighter.   It will be very annoying, but an Abbott government will benefit from such changes which are completely beyond any Australian government's control.

*  I think it was George on Insiders who mentioned "the vibe" yesterday too, but I had been thinking about writing this comment before I saw that.  Great minds thinking alike, etc..