On the up side: the broader Australian public have finally joined me in disdain for Rudd as a politician. Took them long enough: I was there in 2006.
On the downside: seems a fair few people over 35 have started to sort of like Tony Abbott. I refer to the age factor in this because it seems there is hardly an under 30 year old in the land who he doesn't creep out. As with Rudd, I predict his popularity, even with the dag demographic, will be but a fleeting thing. There is every reason to believe he will not keep spending promises, will have some trouble on the international stage (I don't expect him to go over a treat in Indonesia especially), and even (I've been reading around) have some early ministerial scandals. Some people have said we may be looking at something like the Fraser government after Whitlam, and there might be something in that, but I expect Abbott to be worse.
There is much speculation going on about how the Senate might pan out. The arcane system there seems to make it impossible to predict these days. Last night on the ABC there was talk that the balance of power might be with three odd bods: the creepy Victorian Senator
What a worry.
I'm going to be voting below the line to try to ensure as limited accidental preferences as I can.
2 comments:
I don't expect Abbott to last. I think his own party will ditch him because he is too flaky. Commemts like "we should stay out of Syria because it is a fight between two baddies" shows him as a clear demonstration of the Peter principle.
His plain dumb maternity leave policy will be rolled by the level headed in his party, which will the first of many policy backflips.
I expect he will chicken out of a double dissolution to repeal the carbon price. By then he will be too unpopular. But if I'm wrong about that, then I think a double dissolution is more likely to end his leadership than prolong it.
His own party will switch to Turnbull when TA's popularity hits rock bottom. and in enough time for Turnbull to resurrect their chances of re-election in 2017. I give him 18 months.
Perhaps Catallaxy would like to run a survey on how long Tony Abbott will last as PM.
I think he will attempt to argue an ETs is not a carbon tax and that things are much worse than he expected EXCEPT PEFO will bugger that argument up.
I do not expect much action on the deficit after all they really cannot talk about why there still is a structural deficit. of course he could try the sinclair davidson defense here and deny it!
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