Not as nuanced as I would like it. But neither is the other side. Closing down entire towns and suburbs of healthy people after all this time. Crazy stuff.
I read a news item on that today that related to a potential increase in Parkinson's Disease. After the Spanish Flu Parkinson's Disease spiked x2-3 fold. There could be something to this because the brain has very small capillaries so blood clots and subsequent silent strokes do happen. The epidemiology challenge though is that neurologic diseases often have very long developmental trajectories. In PD up to 80% of the relevant neurons can be lost before a diagnosis. That developmental trajectory is also why the hope for cures once a diagnosis is made is hoping for too much; at that point in time the best will often be be stabilisation but despite decades of research very little progress has been made although there is some success with Multiple Sclerosis, which is fundamentally an immune related disease so is unlike PD, AlZ, FTD.
Graeme, I think we all have to get to zero community transmissions first then if we have the infrastructure right, we can open up subject to 1. compulsory masking in all indoor venues 2. restrictions on size of indoor crowds 3. constant test trace and quarantine
Once we get back to zero community transmissions, vigilance on those top 3 can keep us there and hopefully we never need to go back to lockdowns
However in a case like Victoria I do believe they need lockdown first to get there. also it's fine to say test and trace when you have the capacity to do that. NSW seems to, but I have doubts about Vic.
also you can only have open borders between zero transmission states
Taking any goal to the limit is over-optimisation and wrong. You never do that on first principles, Its a rebellion against holistic thinking. But yes it will hurt peoples mental health Its been engineered to outpace the bodies efforts to deal with it. But we have ignored preparation and treatment. We have outlawed preparation and treatment. So we've got to take the other arm from behind our backs and stop conforming to the dictates of the terrorists.
5 comments:
Yes indeed
Not as nuanced as I would like it. But neither is the other side. Closing down entire towns and suburbs of healthy people after all this time. Crazy stuff.
I read a news item on that today that related to a potential increase in Parkinson's Disease. After the Spanish Flu Parkinson's Disease spiked x2-3 fold. There could be something to this because the brain has very small capillaries so blood clots and subsequent silent strokes do happen. The epidemiology challenge though is that neurologic diseases often have very long developmental trajectories. In PD up to 80% of the relevant neurons can be lost before a diagnosis. That developmental trajectory is also why the hope for cures once a diagnosis is made is hoping for too much; at that point in time the best will often be be stabilisation but despite decades of research very little progress has been made although there is some success with Multiple Sclerosis, which is fundamentally an immune related disease so is unlike PD, AlZ, FTD.
Graeme, I think we all have to get to zero community transmissions first then if we have the infrastructure right, we can open up subject to
1. compulsory masking in all indoor venues
2. restrictions on size of indoor crowds
3. constant test trace and quarantine
Once we get back to zero community transmissions, vigilance on those top 3 can keep us there and hopefully we never need to go back to lockdowns
However in a case like Victoria I do believe they need lockdown first to get there. also it's fine to say test and trace when you have the capacity to do that. NSW seems to, but I have doubts about Vic.
also you can only have open borders between zero transmission states
Taking any goal to the limit is over-optimisation and wrong. You never do that on first principles, Its a rebellion against holistic thinking. But yes it will hurt peoples mental health Its been engineered to outpace the bodies efforts to deal with it. But we have ignored preparation and treatment. We have outlawed preparation and treatment. So we've got to take the other arm from behind our backs and stop conforming to the dictates of the terrorists.
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