Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Prediction: there will be too much analysis

Of course I haven't given up on an eventual Biden win, but the one thing I am not looking forward to is the months and months of over-analysis of why Trump (win or lose) did much better than expected.

Can't we just circumvent it all with a these observations:

a.    Trump and Republicans are the party of the rich*, and the dumb**.  Combine those two proportions of the population, and you get into "could always win" numbers.

b.    The US will not return to reasonable politics while ever the Murdoch family doesn't want it to.   We can only hope that things might improve when Rupert dies; but the population will be kept dumbed down while ever the "in it for the money" Right wing propaganda media continues to have influence.  

c.    Social media also has its role in dumbing down and polarising the population as well - but they do get at least some credit (unlike Murdoch) for their role in moderating how much misinformation and rumour were spread in the lead up to this election.   

 

*  OK, have to make allowances for some categories of the rich being more liberal than others.  But as a general rule...

**   OK, I still worry about using that as a general description of people who otherwise function normally except in their politics.   Perhaps it's more - been so propagandised into an inability to tell truth from fiction it plays like they are dumb.   

Update:   I understand people being upset that so many Americans, knowing Trumps personality and performance, still voted for him.  But it's worth remembering that voluntary voting has an effect on the total numbers who did so:

Around 239.2 million Americans were eligible to vote in 2020, according to the U.S. Elections Project. NBC News’ projected 159.8 million ballots cast in 2020 would constitute about a 66.8% voter turnout rate among eligible citizens — the highest since 1900.

Actually, I'm not sure about that number of ballots figure - the total votes counted on the election outcome pages show about 139 million votes - but other sites agree that the proportion of eligible voters figures of about 66% seems right.

So, if about 48.5% of the vote ends up going to Trump (it's closer to 49% at the moment), that's 32.4% of the eligible voters.  As I have often said before, a significant number of those likely consider him a useful idiot (he's good for their tax rate, Right wing media business, or investment in defence industries, etc).   So who knows, but maybe 20% of the voting population are true members of the Trump cult - and helped made that way by the self interested Right wing propaganda industry and cynical culture warring which has become the strategy of the Republicans for two to three decades. 

I mean, that's still bad.   Maybe just not quite as bad as it first seems.

7 comments:

GMB said...

The dumb left gave up their ground game. By telling everyone to stay home and post their vote in, they lost all their manpower that they needed for a convincing campaign. If you scare the left with the fear of Covid then who are you going to get to do the professional and voluntary electioneering?

GMB said...

The dumb left don't like analysis because they are determined to never learn anything. They don't want to learn about climate science, economics, why they lost the last election and this one .... They don't want to know.

GMB said...

Did I mention that the dumb left don't want to know about Covid preparation. They don't like analysis because they don't want to know.

GMB said...

Trump has won but the Democrats, as they said they would, are trying to stage a coup by cheating. In the early hours of the morning votes have been dumped into key states and what do you know? All Biden votes. Statistically impossible. But the intention to cheat in this way was announced well ahead of the election.

Not Trampis said...

I need to analyse your analysis.

Not Trampis said...

could be there are more morons in the USA than anyone thought

John said...

could be there are more morons in the USA than anyone thought

The per capita rate is probably the same as at Catallaxy. Until this election I never realised how so far down the poisonous Trump worship route they had travelled. A once leading political forum has been overrun by people who will lie and concoct all manner of absurd arguments to defend their idol. I have posted there for several years but will not contribute to a forum where pathological lying is rapidly becoming the norm.