Thoughts of a non expert on Islamic terrorism

At the ABC, there's a very pessimistic take on the future course of Islamic terrorism in light of the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan.   A couple of experts in the field are quoted:

There are two main ways the Taliban's control of Afghanistan increases the threat of terrorism, according to experts. 

Firstly, there will be considerable opportunity for Al Qaeda to bring foreigners into Afghanistan to train and equip them as fighters, according to counter-terrorism expert Professor Greg Barton. 

"When we think of Taliban today in control of Afghanistan, there is no evidence the Taliban has changed their view and lots of evidence of close association with Al Qaeda, through marriage, shared leadership and shared world view," he said.   

Secondly, the Taliban's success may prove to be inspirational. 

"The idea that you can win. The idea that the Americans can be pushed back," Professor of International Security and Intelligence John Blaxland said.  

"That is reverberating around the world, that is right across the Middle East, north Africa, South-East Asia, southern Philippines, parts of Indonesia and southern Thailand — that's adding spring to the step of those who are railing against the infidels, the non-Muslim world."

Professor Barton said it was now very hard to counter that narrative because "everything suggests it's right".

Now, I freely admit to no expertise on the subject, so I may be totally wrong.    But my gut feeling is that this take is too pessimistic for the following reasons:

*    It ignores the defeat of Islamic State as a public relations black eye for jihadist rule, generally speaking.   In fact, although the Taliban helped fight against IS (this article usefully tries to explain the differences between the Taliban, IS and Al-Qaeda), is it partly because of the failure of IS that the Taliban is trying to sell itself as the new, improved, don't-be-scared-of-us-we-are-much-less-into-killing-our-citizens-now version of radical Islam rule?

*  Saudi Arabia itself is still on a slow path of social reform in favour of women and being more open to the West.  Isn't it?

*  Where exactly does radical Islam look like an actual success, in terms of running a country or region?    And large scale terrorist acts lead to some pretty fierce push back in countries like France and Sri Lanka - 

On March 13, Sarath Weerasekara, Sri Lanka’s minister of public security, announced that the government will ban wearing of the burqa and close more than 1,000 Islamic schools in the country. The minister was quoted as saying that “the burqa” was a “sign of religious extremism” and has a “direct impact on national security”.

and 

PARIS—President Emmanuel Macron is redrawing the line that separates religion and state, in a battle to force Islamic organizations into the mold of French secularism.

In recent months, his administration has ousted the leadership of a mosque after temporarily closing it and poring over its finances. Another mosque gave up millions in subsidies after the government pressured local officials over the funding. A dozen other mosques have faced orders to close temporarily for safety or fire-code violations.

The government has taken these actions as a precursor to a much broader push to rein in the independence of mosques and other religious organizations across France. Mr. Macron has submitted a bill to Parliament, called the Law Reinforcing Respect of the Principles of the Republic, that would empower the government to permanently close houses of worship and dissolve religious organizations, without court order, if it finds that any of their members are provoking violence or inciting hatred.

*  Indonesia still has a radical Islam problem, but a government pretty actively policing against it, too. 

Sure, Islamic inspired terrorist attacks are  not going to disappear - but isn't the obvious lesson of recent year, even to radical Islamists, that big attacks invite big and long lasting pushback?  The return of the Taliban doesn't do much to change that, it seems to me. 

So, I don't know, but maybe Taliban Rule Mk 2 is less of a terrorism inspiration than the experts think - especially if they become a "success" in governing by courting foreign money by selling themselves as the "no longer really into terrorism" government.   

I hope this completely non-expert, gut feeling assessment has something going for it.

We shall see.