Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Some details on the Trump Iowa win

From the Washington Post:

Republican front-runner Donald Trump added Iowa’s most religious regions to his strongholds in Monday’s caucuses. He combined religious areas with the state’s lower-income and less educated counties to pull a majority of all caucus voters, more than double what he earned eight years ago.

Trump dominated the caucuses in the style of other Republican winners of the past 20 years, a pattern that works in Iowa but did not propel them to win the nomination. Meanwhile, Trump’s weakest performance was in the parts of Iowa that more closely resemble the rest of the country, with fewer White evangelical Christians, fewer farmers and more people living in cities with higher education and more income.

It's the details like this (as well as his continuing court cases, and his dubious health) which convince me there is no need to sweat about Trump winning another term.

5 comments:

Not Trampis said...

a lot less people turned up than in 2016. Weather could have something to do with that.

The problem for trump the more he steels up his MAGA supporters the more he puts off the sensible people.

Steve said...

"The problem for trump the more he steels up his MAGA supporters the more he puts off the sensible people."

Correct.

TimT said...

You were saying that last time he won, maybe best to 'sweat about' it all now rather than after the fact!

John said...

Recent Biden polling: 2nd worst polling(Reagan, Carter) for a Prez at this point in time. The Dems made a big strategic error in not preparing someone to take over from Biden. It seems nigh impossible for Trump to win but last time ... .

Steve said...

Hey Tim, I just had a look back at an argument we had here in comments in 2016!

I think history has entirely validated the "Trump voters build their own reality which is entirely detached from facts" view. (Updating it since then: we can add Trump was the victim of massive electoral fraud; Putin is scared of Trump; Biden has had dementia the entire time of his presidency; the US economy is absolutely tanking; God sent Trump to save America; etc etc)

Here's the link:

https://opiniondominion.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-unreality-bubble.html

And yes, I would agree that some progressives believe nutty things too (and even centrist Lefties are too gullible on trans and race issues); but as always, the things they tend to get detached from reality on are way less consequential.)